2023-24 James Norris Memorial Trophy finalists: Quinn Hughes, Roman Josi, Cale Makar

[Buck Naked]

Got it, PK is irrelevant and "all-around play" is actually some subjective definition of maximum output.

I disagree with you, but if that's how you want to judge it then fine by me.

I asked a lot of questions in my reply to you. Care to answer? Was Makar the third best D 5v5 on the Avs during the past season? Because he wasn't deployed as the #1. If it's gonna be as black and white as you wanna make the PK usage, then your answer to that question should be YES. Makar is the third best Dman on the Avs at 5v5 hockey. Or, you can think about it for a second and realize how dumb it sounds..

 

[Shane Diesel]

I asked a lot of questions in my reply to you. Care to answer?

Happy to.

Was Makar the third best D 5v5 on the Avs during the past season? Because he wasn't deployed as the #1.

In the eyes of the coaching staff and the FO he was considered the #3 option at even strength, yes.

If it's gonna be as black and white as you wanna make the PK usage, then your answer to that question should be YES. Makar is the third best Dman on the Avs at 5v5 hockey. Or, you can think about it for a second and realize how dumb it sounds..

But that only tells part of the story once again. He was also the best option on the PP and second best option on the PK by the same metric. He played an overall game which is the current and past point. And that breakdown of ice time led him to still having damn near the same offensive numbers at even strength and the power play as Hughes did. So why doesn't Makar get any credit for being good at another aspect of the game while still being comparable to Hughes offensively?

I'm not saying coaches don't take deployment into consideration, I'm saying Makar is simply more dynamic.

And while only a small difference Makar still averaged more ice time than Hughes this season, he doesn't get credit for being of "greater output" to the team in that regard? If we're going to parse TOI that is.

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

How much PK time did Erik Karlsson have last season?

I'm guessing zero. Hughes is winning this.

If a true two way defender in the mold of Pronger is a finalist then PK time should be considered.

But not when its Makar Hughes and Josi.

 

[Buck Naked]

In the eyes of the coaching staff and the FO he was considered the #3 option at even strength, yes.

Which should tell you everything you need to know. He was utilized as the #3 Dman, but everyone in the world knows that he's the best Dman on the planet. He's like 90th in the league in 5v5 icetime for Dmen. He sure as shit isn't the 90th best Dman.

But that only tells part of the story once again. He was also the best option on the PP and second best option on the PK by the same metric. He played an overall game which is the current and past point. And that breakdown of ice time led him to still having damn near the same offensive numbers at even strength and the power play as Hughes did. So why doesn't Makar get any credit for being good at another aspect of the game while still being comparable to Hughes offensively?

And while only a small difference Makar still averaged more ice time than Hughes this season.

Yes, I agree that he had an impressive season offensively. Scored at an amazing rate! He still had a bad year defensively though. Shouldn't he get knocked for that? Quinn Hughes had an excellent season defensively, there was a large gap between the two. Much larger than the gap in scoring rate offensively. I'm not saying that your reasoning for why you think Makar is great is wrong, because I agree with you there. It's when you start comparing things like PK usage between players when it's very well known that it's usually not a skill issue that's keeping many of the top Dmen from PKing regularly, it's usage in other situations that the coach finds more important.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Which should tell you everything you need to know. He was utilized as the #3 Dman, but everyone in the world knows that he's the best Dman on the planet. He's like 90th in the league in 5v5 icetime for Dmen. He sure as shit isn't the 90th best Dman.

Where have I said the criteria for Norris should be leading the league only in even strength ice time? I haven't made that argument at all. Overall he was 9th in the entire league in TOI for defenseman.

And if we're being technical Makar actually finished second on the Avs in even strength TOI, not third. And he only trailed Toews which is his pairing-mate.

Yes, I agree that he had an impressive season offensively. Scored at an amazing rate! He still had a bad year defensively though.
Shouldn't he get knocked for that? Quinn Hughes had an excellent season defensively, there was a large gap between the two. Much larger than the gap in scoring rate offensively.

Sure, but again I wasn't the one suggesting we completely ignore certain parts of the game. You were.

I'm not saying that your reasoning for why you think Makar is great is wrong, because I agree with you there. It's when you start comparing things like PK usage between players when it's very well known that it's usually not a skill issue that's keeping many of the top Dmen from PKing regularly, it's usage in other situations that the coach finds more important.

And despite all that Makar remains a unicorn that he can do everything well, so we agree.

 

[Spilot23]

If Hughes played with MacKinnon he'd have 110 points this year easily

Or Miller and EP would both have 120 points this year easily

 

[Buck Naked]

And if we're being technical Makar actually finished second on the Avs in even strength TOI, not third. And he only trailed Toews which is his pairing-mate.

Byram had a higher 5v5 ice time per game than Makar before he was traded. That's what makes Makar third on the team in 5v5 TOI per game.

Sure, but again I wasn't the one suggesting we completely ignore certain parts of the game. You were.

No, I never said to ignore it. I said don't put too much stock into it when comparing different players. It's a skill set possessed by 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys on a regular basis. It's not that impressive to be good at it. Most players in the league can PK and come out looking good.

And despite all that Makar remains a unicorn that he can do everything well, so we agree.

Well, if we wanna be technical. Hughes might not PK as much as Makar. But by the metrics we have to evaluate individual contributions on the PK, Hugues numbers comes out a lot better. This article compares the two in many facets of the game. PK is one of them. Especially the last paragraph is pretty interesting.

Here’s the thing: Makar has certainly played more on the penalty kill than Hughes but has he actually played better on the penalty kill?

Hughes has been on the ice for 69.5 unblocked shot attempts against and 5.15 goals against per 60 minutes on the penalty kill this season. Hughes is ranked second among Canucks defencemen in both those statistics.

Makar has been on the ice for 83.2 unblocked shot attempts against and 7.10 goals against per 60 minutes on the penalty kill this season. Both of those statistics rank dead last among Avalanche defencemen.

Among the 185 defencemen who have spent at least 30 minutes on the penalty kill this season, Hughes ranks 52nd in unblocked shot attempts against and 32nd in goals against. Makar ranks 139th and 93rd.

In other words, while Makar has played more on the penalty kill, he’s been rather bad at doing the actual job. By Evolving-Hockey’s GAR metric, Hughes has been a modest boon on the penalty kill, adding 0.4 goals above a replacement-level defender; Makar has been a detriment at -2.3 goals, suggesting the Avalanche would be better off limiting Makar’s minutes in the penalty kill and giving them to almost anyone else.

Norris battle between Hughes and Makar shouldn't be (and isn't) close

Anyone voting for Cale Makar ahead of Quinn Hughes for the Norris Trophy simply hasn't been paying attention.

www.vancouverisawesome.com

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Why did makar have such a poor year away from Mackinnon if he drives the offense that good.

His numbers with and without Mackinnon are pretty far apart

When Makar is away from Mack he is also usually away from Mikko. If you re-read my post you will see that after those two there was very little to work with for him due to Nuke and Lehky being out for quite a bit so it is normal that his production would suffer. With that said he still ended up being only 2 pts behind Hughes and with a higher PPG avg. It is very difficult to get points when you have no 2nd line for a big portion of the RS.

Now why don't you tell us Hughes' production away from Petersson and Miller and compare that with Makar's away from Mack and Mikko? I am not saying one is better than the other. I am literally curious how they did.

 

[Aqualung]

Is this all really worth having out right now? We’re talking about differences in the margins.

 

[Rowlet]

When Makar is away from Mack he is also usually away from Mikko. If you re-read my post you will see that after those two there was very little to work with for him due to Nuke and Lehky being out for quite a bit so it is normal that his production would suffer. With that said he still ended up being only 2 pts behind Hughes and with a higher PPG avg. It is very difficult to get points when you have no 2nd line for a big portion of the RS.

Now why don't you tell us Hughes' production away from Petersson and Miller and compare that with Makar's away from Mack and Mikko? I am not saying one is better than the other. I am literally curious how they did.

Hughes possession numbers are actually equivalent when away from Pettersson and Miller, Makars are worse when separated from MacK and Rant.

And Miller/EP play on two different lines, so in this situation Hughes' numbers would be exclusive to playing with the third and fourth line

edit: here's some charts. Hughes is the best Canuck, while MacKinnon is the best Avalanche. Also, Rantanen really struggled away from MacKinnon, 45-46% Corsi and Fenwick, Makar isolated was around 48%. Rantanen and Makar without MacKinnon was only 35%.

Hughes is 57% or so when isolated, that number goes up when Pettersson is on the ice but Pettersson's isolated stats are not great on his own.

edit:

also, while we're having the PK argument, Hughes on the PK is actually better statistically than Makar is.

Hughes gaps Makar in CF%, FF%, SF%, xGA, and xGF%

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Hughes possession numbers are actually equivalent when away from Pettersson and Miller, Makars are worse when separated from MacK and Rant.

And Miller/EP play on two different lines, so in this situation Hughes' numbers would be exclusive to playing with the third and fourth line

View attachment 864214

View attachment 864216

edit: here's some charts. Hughes is the best Canuck, while MacKinnon is the best Avalanche. Also, Rantanen really struggled away from MacKinnon, 45-46% Corsi and Fenwick, Makar isolated was around 48%. Rantanen and Makar without MacKinnon was only 35%.

Hughes is 57% or so when isolated, that number goes up when Pettersson is on the ice but Pettersson's isolated stats are not great on his own.

Thanks for the info. Like I said in my original post I'm in the camp Hughes should win this year but I think it will be closer than some people think in here.

Just for info we believe on HFAvs that Makar has been playing all season banged up with a hip injury. It was brought up by Makar himself during training camp. Although he has been able to produce really well we have noticed that he fumbled the puck a lot more this year, and we also believe it affected him more on the defensive side as it is easier to control your skating with the puck than reacting in a split second to the puck carrier. It wouldn't surprise us that he will have surgery this summer to take care of that. I am not trying to find excuses for him but just trying to give a bit of context.

 

[dirtydanglez]

If Hughes played with MacKinnon he'd have 110 points this year easily

he'd be on the second pair.

 

[Rowlet]

Thanks for the info. Like I said in my original post I'm in the camp Hughes should win this year but I think it will be closer than some people think in here.

Just for info we believe on HFAvs that Makar has been playing all season banged up with a hip injury. It was brought up by Makar himself during training camp. Although he has been able to produce really well we have noticed that he fumbled the puck a lot more this year, and we also believe it affected him more on the defensive side as it is easier to control your skating with the puck than reacting in a split second to the puck carrier. It wouldn't surprise us that he will have surgery this summer to take care of that. I am not trying to find excuses for him but just trying to give a bit of context.

Yeah, I was already aware he was injured, however his stats had already fallen well below his "normal" play last year too. It will be interesting to see what happens next season.

I also edited the post again to include the PK stats since they're being argued over in here too. Makar plays way more on the PK but it's been pretty lacklustre. Hughes on the other hand, in his limited minutes, are way better than the team average.

 

[avsfan9]

If Hughes played with MacKinnon he'd have 110 points this year easily

….. and if Karlsson played with Crosby and Malkin he’d have 120 points easily…. Wait….
Truth is no one knows how certain players will play with other players but I guarantee Hughes would not be holding on to the puck like he does in Vancouver if he played in the Avs system.

 

[majormajor]

Why did makar have such a poor year away from Mackinnon if he drives the offense that good.

His numbers with and without Mackinnon are pretty far apart

Funny enough in Makar's first few years he actually had better numbers away from Mackinnon. He would have the puck much more on his stick and be more active. He produced crazy numbers with third and fourth line linemates.

Makar has been injured for the whole year this year, he hasn't been the same (up until these playoffs). I do not think he has been nearly as good as he normally is, and not as good this year as Josi and Hughes.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Yeah, I was already aware he was injured, however his stats had already fallen well below his "normal" play last year too. It will be interesting to see what happens next season.

I also edited the post again to include the PK stats since they're being argued over in here too. Makar plays way more on the PK but it's been pretty lacklustre. Hughes on the other hand, in his limited minutes, are way better than the team average.

On your first point....it would make sense his numbers started to go down last season which is when he got hurt.

On your second point....again IMO his defensive numbers including PK would be affected more than his offensive numbers by his injury.

This is obviously speculation on my part as we are not 100% sure he is still injured. Surgery during the summer would confirm our suspicions. If he does indeed have a hip injury it would be very likely he has more trouble defensively because he needs to make a lot more sudden movements by reacting to the puck carrier.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Byram had a higher 5v5 ice time per game than Makar before he was traded. That's what makes Makar third on the team in 5v5 TOI per game.

Seasons are 82 games, they don't end at the trade deadline.

No, I never said to ignore it. I said don't put too much stock into it when comparing different players. It's a skill set possessed by 4th liners and 3rd pairing guys on a regular basis. It's not that impressive to be good at it. Most players in the league can PK and come out looking good.

I don't agree anyone can be an effective penalty killer.

Well, if we wanna be technical. Hughes might not PK as much as Makar. But by the metrics we have to evaluate individual contributions on the PK, Hugues numbers comes out a lot better. This article compares the two in many facets of the game. PK is one of them. Especially the last paragraph is pretty interesting.

Here’s the thing: Makar has certainly played more on the penalty kill than Hughes but has he actually played better on the penalty kill?

Hughes has been on the ice for 69.5 unblocked shot attempts against and 5.15 goals against per 60 minutes on the penalty kill this season. Hughes is ranked second among Canucks defencemen in both those statistics.

Makar has been on the ice for 83.2 unblocked shot attempts against and 7.10 goals against per 60 minutes on the penalty kill this season. Both of those statistics rank dead last among Avalanche defencemen.

Among the 185 defencemen who have spent at least 30 minutes on the penalty kill this season, Hughes ranks 52nd in unblocked shot attempts against and 32nd in goals against. Makar ranks 139th and 93rd.

In other words, while Makar has played more on the penalty kill, he’s been rather bad at doing the actual job. By Evolving-Hockey’s GAR metric, Hughes has been a modest boon on the penalty kill, adding 0.4 goals above a replacement-level defender; Makar has been a detriment at -2.3 goals, suggesting the Avalanche would be better off limiting Makar’s minutes in the penalty kill and giving them to almost anyone else.

Norris battle between Hughes and Makar shouldn't be (and isn't) close

Anyone voting for Cale Makar ahead of Quinn Hughes for the Norris Trophy simply hasn't been paying attention.

www.vancouverisawesome.com

I'm sure a source called "Vancouver is Awesome" is legitimate. That's hilarious.

 

[Shane Diesel]

edit:

also, while we're having the PK argument, Hughes on the PK is actually better statistically than Makar is.

View attachment 864229

View attachment 864230

Hughes gaps Makar in CF%, FF%, SF%, xGA, and xGF%

Do you have quality of competition numbers for the PK? It's easier to say Hughes looks better on the PK when he's getting the last 15 seconds of a two minute kill against the opponent's third PP option.

 

[Rowlet]

Do you have quality of competition numbers for the PK? It's easier to say Hughes looks better on the PK when he's getting the last 15 seconds of a two minute kill against the opponent's third PP option.

Nope, I don't want to look that hard.

Either way, Makar's PK stats are below team average when he isn't on the ice, here's the extended screenshot.

 

[NVious]

Faber should win it

 

[Shane Diesel]

Nope, I don't want to look that hard.

Strange, I think that would provide more context.

Either way, Makar's PK stats are below team average when he isn't on the ice, here's the extended screenshot.

View attachment 864254

Who is he? MacKinnon? The same MacKinnon that averaged five seconds of PK time over 82 games? He's irrelevant to the Avs' PK overall. A with/without report is meaningless in this context due to MacKinnon's infinitesimal sample size.

 

[jackjohnson]

I am in the camp that thinks Hughes will win this year but it will be closer than some here thinks.

By the way you are not helping your case using that Avs list. Landy hasn't played this season at all, Mitts only played 18 games in the RS with the Avs, both Nuke and Lehky missed a lot of games. When taking that into consideration it looks like Makar drives the offense a lot more than you are saying and possibly more than Hughes. Do not forget that VAN was leading the league in offense for quite a while from the start of the season. VAN slowed down offensively quite a bit after the ASG and gave the opportunity to the Avs to take the lead.

I doubt you watch Canucks games. They were offensive because of Hughes

 

[Rowlet]

Strange, I think that would provide more context.

When who isn't on the ice? MacKinnon? MacKinnon averaged five seconds of PK time over 82 games. He's irrelevant to the Avs' PK overall.

If you want to go find it, I'll look at them, but I'm not going to put in a lot of work to find them.

I'm not looking at MacKinnon's numbers, I just used him as a placeholder because I know MacKinnon and Makar aren't on the ice at the same time on the PK, only 1:45 over the entire season.

The Makar + MacKinnon grouping is essentially just Makar's raw numbers, while the bottom line is the team stats without either one of them being on the ice. The "him" was Makar, the team is better with him off the ice than they are on.

 

[jackjohnson]

I don't disagree with you the hockey media at large considers Hughes the front runner, but until the final votes are tallied we can't know for sure. Surprises have happened before.

I have heard Hughes is the winner based on NHL survey

 

[Shane Diesel]

If you want to go find it, I'll look at them, but I'm not going to put in a lot of work to find them.

OK, I think the difference is glaringly obvious considering the usage.

I'm not looking at MacKinnon's numbers, I just used him as a placeholder because I know MacKinnon and Makar aren't on the ice at the same time on the PK, only 1:45 over the entire season.

The Makar + MacKinnon grouping is essentially just Makar's raw numbers, while the bottom line is the team stats without either one of them being on the ice. The "him" was Makar, the team is better with him off the ice than they are on.

Ah, I see how you broke them out now. Thank you for the clarification.