Speculation: 2023-24 Free Agency/Trade Thread II

[robbieboy3686]

Exactly. The deals could end up bitibg us but you can't blame the guy for lack of effort. He consistently targets the big fish and gets shit done. His player type has also been very consistent: the best competitors out of all the UFAs pretty much.

I agree, and he might finally be getting some pressure from the Samuelis to boot.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I would be very surprised if we land any of these target names that are being thrown around here. Roy, Pesce, etc.

We may have the cap room but do they really want to join this group? Little progress from last year.

Speaking of progress, we're essentially trying to replace Rico and RD Lyubushkin. Just how much progress are we going to get if the replacements are of equal talents?

I dunno what RW we're going to get, but the standard is being equal to Rico offensively and defensively. That's a high standard and will probably cost a pretty penny as well as term to beat it.

With Lybushkin, he's a 3rd pairing on good teams, but a 2nd pairing for us this past season. If the new guy is equal to Bush, then it's a short term thing. If the new guy is better than Bush, then mid-term to long term, dependent on his age.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

I would be very surprised if we land any of these target names that are being thrown around here. Roy, Pesce, etc.

We may have the cap room but do they really want to join this group? Little progress from last year.

Cap space is a nice bargaining tool

And players know the situation…. Even if the team didn’t do as well as expected… they can see something building here

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Exactly. The deals could end up bitibg us but you can't blame the guy for lack of effort. He consistently targets the big fish and gets shit done. His player type has also been very consistent: the best competitors out of all the UFAs pretty much.

They aren't big fish additions, but the Killorn and Gudas are good stepping stones onto the improving direction. We need to keep Gudas' minutes under 19 minutes a game or he'll wear down throughout the season. Hopefully, Killorn remains healthy next season.

The previous year's additions have been abysmal defensively in Strome and Vatrano, but their leadership skills are a plus for the team.

A lot of money became available with Rico and Silf no longer around.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Speaking of progress, we're essentially trying to replace Rico and RD Lyubushkin. Just how much progress are we going to get if the replacements are of equal talents?

I dunno what RW we're going to get, but the standard is being equal to Rico offensively and defensively. That's a high standard and will probably cost a pretty penny as well as term to beat it.

With Lybushkin, he's a 3rd pairing on good teams, but a 2nd pairing for us this past season. If the new guy is equal to Bush, then it's a short term thing. If the new guy is better than Bush, then mid-term to long term, dependent on his age.

I think you are looking to upgrade those guys, not replace them…. And you got assets for them

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I think you are looking to upgrade those guys, not replace them…. And you got assets for them

That's the hope. I'm still jaded about Verbeek's replacements for defense after trading away Lindholm and Manson along with our pugilist/PKer Des. That didn't work out well at all. Johnston is mild hugger compared to Des.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

That's the hope. I'm still jaded about Verbeek's replacements for defense after trading away Lindholm and Manson along with our pugilist/PKer Des. That didn't work out well at all. Johnston is mild hugger compared to Des.

Ya not a fan of Ross the boss

Lybushkin was def a weak spot defensively…. Was a nice security blanket for Mintyukov but I don’t think he was ever a long term solution o. The back end…. And I think PV did good upgrading a 4th to a 3rd while getting training wheels out of it.

Lindholm and Manson…. Just doing a rebuild, collecting assets for pieces that won’t be here when we’re ready to compete

 

[dracom]

obviously dont troll there, but i took a peak at the habs board and someone seriously offered Xheka and Anderson for Zegras straight up. so delusional lol

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Ya not a fan of Ross the boss

Lybushkin was def a weak spot defensively…. Was a nice security blanket for Mintyukov but I don’t think he was ever a long term solution o. The back end…. And I think PV did good upgrading a 4th to a 3rd while getting training wheels out of it.

Lindholm and Manson…. Just doing a rebuild, collecting assets for pieces that won’t be here when we’re ready to compete

Verbeek wants to start to compete next year, which is why he's trying to acquire a top-6 RW and a top-4 RD than letting the youths continue to develop. We supposedly adding LW Cutter, LD/RD Zell, RD Luneau, and have the potential in RW Colangelo youth group on top of the top-6 RW and top-4 RD.

Lindholm is an actual top-pairing D and just turned 30 years old at an AAV of $6.5 mil. Seems like Lindholm would be in the window to compete. But if Lindholm stays, then there's probably a lower chance of landing Carlsson and getting another top-5 pick in this year's draft.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Verbeek wants to start to compete next year, which is why he's trying to acquire a top-6 RW and a top-4 RD than letting the youths continue to develop. We supposedly adding LW Cutter, LD/RD Zell, RD Luneau, and have the potential in RW Colangelo youth group on top of the top-6 RW and top-4 RD.

Lindholm is an actual top-pairing D and just turned 30 years old at an AAV of $6.5 mil. Seems like Lindholm would be in the window to compete. But if Lindholm stays, then there's probably a lower chance of landing Carlsson and getting another top-5 pick in this year's draft.

Oh 100% the goal of trading lindhol Rakell and Manson was to tank future picks to load up on talent.

Which we did, got Mintyukov, carlsson and whoever we end up picking this year.

Not to mention Clara, helleson, Terrance, gauthier, clang, luneau and a 2nd round pick to be named this year

 

[Hockey Duckie]

Oh 100% the goal of trading lindhol Rakell and Manson was to tank future picks to load up on talent.

Which we did, got Mintyukov, carlsson and whoever we end up picking this year.

Not to mention Clara, helleson, Terrance, gauthier, clang, luneau and a 2nd round pick to be named this year

to finish in the bottom-3 for the past two seasons. On top of that, run the team ragged with Carlsson's load mgmt, Luneau's body building for half a season, and a rigid coach who probably induced more injuries on the team by playing through injuries in a rebuild year.

 

[Reveille1984]

I personally don't see the need to rush acquiring a top-6 forward this offseason, unless a good opportunity presents itself and makes sense for us. The fastest way to screw up a rebuild is to start blowing a bunch of cap space overpaying older B and C tier free agents. Of the names I've seen thrown around (Stamkos, Reinhart, Marchessault, etc.), I think there's a less than five percent chance we sign any of those guys.

I think the top-6 group will naturally improve next year just by virtue of all of the kids being a year more experienced as well as (hopefully) better health overall, along with Cutter being on the team. I'm expecting bigger things from Mac and Zegras, and Leo should be more effective with a full offseason to train and build some more strength. Terry should bounce back a bit as well.

Getting a top-4 defensive minded dman is a much more pressing need given how young and inexperienced the blueliners are. If Verbeek is serious about accelerating the trajectory towards becoming a playoff team, then icing all four of Minty/LaCombe/Zellweger/Luneau isn't going to happen.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

If this team can’t figure out how to keep guys healthy next year, it’s not going to matter how much they improve. We will be in for another miserable season.

 

[Rybread86]

If this team can’t figure out how to keep guys healthy next year, it’s not going to matter how much they improve. We will be in for another miserable season.

Agreed but it's hard to pinpoint what that issue actually is. There are a lot of good theories... staff, age/condition, team being bad, etc, etc. Hopefully they can figure it out otherwise we're going to be cutting guys careers short

 

[KaseMeOutside]

We really have people here that wouldn't want a 26 year old forward that scores at a 100 point pace every year? But I'll see folks defend the Strome and Killorn contracts on here all the time

 

[CrazyDuck4u]

Stamkos to the ducks is a really high probability

 

[duxfan1101]

We really have people here that wouldn't want a 26 year old forward that scores at a 100 point pace every year? But I'll see folks defend the Strome and Killorn contracts on here all the time

You fail to mention that he costs $11M (plus whatever assets to acquire him) and we would only have him for 1 year.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I personally don't see the need to rush acquiring a top-6 forward this offseason, unless a good opportunity presents itself and makes sense for us. The fastest way to screw up a rebuild is to start blowing a bunch of cap space overpaying older B and C tier free agents. Of the names I've seen thrown around (Stamkos, Reinhart, Marchessault, etc.), I think there's a less than five percent chance we sign any of those guys.

I think the top-6 group will naturally improve next year just by virtue of all of the kids being a year more experienced as well as (hopefully) better health overall, along with Cutter being on the team. I'm expecting bigger things from Mac and Zegras, and Leo should be more effective with a full offseason to train and build some more strength. Terry should bounce back a bit as well.

Getting a top-4 defensive minded dman is a much more pressing need given how young and inexperienced the blueliners are. If Verbeek is serious about accelerating the trajectory towards becoming a playoff team, then icing all four of Minty/LaCombe/Zellweger/Luneau isn't going to happen.

In a way, we shouldn't need a top-6 RW because we don't know what we have in our top-6. This year's top-6 talent was actually eight players deep, but injuries ruined that development of improvement. The scary part is when we lost Rico at the TDL, our GF/game dropped from 2.66 to 2.0. Rico was tied as our 3rd best scorer on the team with 42 points, and he only logged 60 games for us last year.

We're replacing LW Rico with LW Cutter, but I don't think Cutter will be putting up big points next season as a rookie. So adding a veteran top-6 RW would give the team an extra boost in offense.

As for defense, we need a defensive d-man, top-4 RD. While our ES GA/game before and after the TDL was somewhat similar, but our PK GA/game before and after the TDL had a significant drop.

ES GA/game before the TDL = 3.541
ES GA/game after the TDL = 3.762

PK GA/game before the TDL = 0.984
PK GA/game after the TDL = 1.476

The thing about our PK isn't that we lost RD Lyubushkin at the TDL, but Rico too. Rico was good at the FO dot with a 52.9% win rate, which is the best on the team. Carrick was our third best at the FO dot with 51.0% and also a part of our PK unit, but he too was traded away at the TDL. Our 2nd best FO guy is Mac at 51.7%, but he doesn't PK b/c he's not quick enough at the moment. Everyone else is 46.2% win rate.

We need two forwards who can win at 50% or higher on the FO dot for our PK unit. Maybe Cutter could be one of those guys, but we still need another. Hopefully, that top-6RW can win FO's and be good enough to be on the PK.

 

[GermanRocket7]

Think Pat would have any interest in Marner?

Marner on a UFA deal around 7-8M in 2025 would be ideal, but we all know he's not playing for a Cup, but for money. Unless he turns his character around (which is highly unlikely), he will remain a regular season superstar for the rest of his career.

If we progress according to trajectory, he will not be needed in 2025 or onward whatsoever, so I guess that's a pass.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Would be a dream, but would love Marner. He could do a lot on his own

 

[forever1922]

They aren't big fish additions, but the Killorn and Gudas are good stepping stones onto the improving direction. We need to keep Gudas' minutes under 19 minutes a game or he'll wear down throughout the season. Hopefully, Killorn remains healthy next season.

The previous year's additions have been abysmal defensively in Strome and Vatrano, but their leadership skills are a plus for the team.

A lot of money became available with Rico and Silf no longer around.

Killorn and Gudas both were definitely among the most coveted players of their free agency.

Strome and Vatrano were obviously much more middle of the road guys, but to this team, at the time they were no depth players. Then there was Klingberg, an absolute top UFA that year.

You could argue even those moves were kind of middle of the road, shorter term, not decisive enough moves. And the time for those types of moves is starting now, during these next 2 seasons.

 

[Kalv]

Has the board really soured on Lundy so much? I didn't believe he'd even play this year and would think the injury impacted his play for the rest of the season.

I'm still a fan but obviously in a lesser role. I love his speed and PK ability. No offense or physicality but I think he's great at creating disruption, so should be a decent bottom 6 option. That contract of him is tricky but I hope we do keep him. This was a tough season for him missing so much

 

[Gliff]

Marner on a UFA deal around 7-8M in 2025 would be ideal, but we all know he's not playing for a Cup, but for money. Unless he turns his character around (which is highly unlikely), he will remain a regular season superstar for the rest of his career.

If we progress according to trajectory, he will not be needed in 2025 or onward whatsoever, so I guess that's a pass.

It’s also fantasy land lol.

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Stamkos to the ducks is a really high probability

Says who?

 

[Dr Johnny Fever]

Agreed but it's hard to pinpoint what that issue actually is. There are a lot of good theories... staff, age/condition, team being bad, etc, etc. Hopefully they can figure it out otherwise we're going to be cutting guys careers short

For sure. Some things are unavoidable. But we seem to lead the league in mystery ailments whose origins can never be pinpointed to a specific play or cause. Somebody needs to get a handle on some preventative medicine.