2023-2024 Playoff Tracker - updated after each DET game

[jkutswings]

This is bad, very bad for the league.

Rangers in 3. They'll eat that Swiss cheese of a roster for lunch.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Would we have made it in with the 3-2-1 system?

The only way we make it this year is if we increased the value of all wins. So either a 2 points or nothing format or a 3 points for a win and 1 point for OTL. Our wins being as heavily weighted towards overtime wins as they were is our undoing.

 

[Bladerunner]

I feel like every year we talk about how the point scale doesn't perfectly gel with what we perceive the valuation should be. The loser point continues to confuse me in the relative value to a win. The Islanders won't crack 40 wins even with a win tonight, meaning their best case win % is 0.476. They are getting in because they were good enough at being bad to lose 16 times in overtime. I've always struggled with the notion that losing at any point is worth something, but we still deal with it every year.

That said, typically you don't see a huge shakeup when you screw with point calculations. Most scenarios have the Wings out, unless the format is rewarding total wins, which it still feels like we are missing that component somehow. The Wings have one more win, 1 fewer loss, scored 58 more goals and allowed only 17 more than the Caps. Somehow they end up tied in points, and the Wings get punished for winning their games in extra time, despite winning one more game in total.

For the sake of other standings formats.

Eastern Conf. if standings were Any W = 2pt, Any L = 0pt
1. Rangers 110
2. Hurricanes 104 - tied with Panthers, regulation wins treated as tiebreaker here
3. Panthers 104
4. Bruins 94
5. Leafs 92
6. Capitals 80
WC1. Lightning 88
WC2. Wings 82

9. Sabres 78
T10. Devils 76 - (currently) most reg wins
T10. Penguins 76
T10 Flyers 76
T10. Islanders 76 - fewest reg wins


Eastern Conf. if standings were W = 2pt, OTW = 1pt, L/OTL = 0pt - reduced value of OTW and OTL
1. Rangers 98
2. Hurricanes 96
3. Panthers 94
4. Bruins 83
5. Lightning 80
6. Capitals 72
WC1. Leafs 79
WC2. Sabres 72

9. Devils 71
10. Penguins 70
T11. Wings 68
T11. Flyers 68
13. Islanders 66


Eastern Conf. if standings were W/OTW = 3pt, OTL = 1pt, L = 0pt - Premier League format, 1pt for OTL
1. Rangers 169
2. Hurricanes 163
3. Panthers 162
4. Bruins 156
5. Leafs 148
6. Capitals 131
WC1. Lightning 140
WC2. Wings 132

9. Islanders 130
10. Penguins 126
11. Flyers 125


Eastern Conf. if standings were W = 3pt, OTW = 1pt, OTL/L = 0pt - Premier League format, 1pt for OTW
1. Rangers 141
2. Hurricanes 140
3. Panthers 136
4. Bruins 119
5. Lightning 116
6. Capitals 104 - tied with Devils in points, tiebreak was total wins
WC1. Leafs 112
WC2. Sabres 105

9. Devils 104
10. Penguins 102
11. Flyers 98
12. Wings 95
13. Islanders 94


Eastern Conf. if standings were W = 3pt, OTW = 2pt, OTL = 1pt, L = 0pt - 3/2/1/0 Format, all games worth same 3 points
1. Rangers 157
2. Hurricanes 155
3. Panthers 152
4. Bruins 145
5. Leafs 135
6. Capitals 123
WC1. Lightning 132
WC2. Pens/Islanders 120 - currently Pens but depends on final game of the season for both teams

9. Islanders/Pens 120
10. Wings 118
11. Sabres 117
12. Flyers 117
13. Devils 114

I'm lurking in some other EC teams pages today.
Thorough analysis of other standings formats. Ofc happy Caps pulled through. During the last few days of the season there were so many scenarios involving 4-5 EC teams for Metro #3 & WC2. Odds were good tie breaks might have come into play. I find it interesting that Caps are seeded #6 in the other versions. This is partly due to the Atlantic being stronger than Metro from #3 on down. This goes in cycles. Years ago the Metro was stronger overall & Atlantic was top heavy.

B4 I continue, Rags will likely blow away Caps and any other team that finished WC2. Yes, upsets in hockey are not scarce... I'm happy Pitt didn't make it

As a statistician (don't hate me) the 3/ 2/ 1/ 0 all games worth 3pts. is the best system. That's four different point levels to match the four game outcomes (RW, OTW, OTL, RL) in a logical manner. What irks me about the current standings pt. system is that games ending in a tie are worth 50% more than those decided in regulation Supposedly one of the main reasons for the current system is that fans didn't like ties, but the 2/ 1/ 0 format allowing ties was game theoretic fair. The current one is not. It's gimmicky and there are psychological & business reasons for the current system. I've written longish posts on that and why all games = 3pts is best for current game outcomes years ago.

Cheers

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

This is so wrong.

Washington has scored the least goals in the eastern conference, no team has fewer goals and 5th least in the league. In addition they are -37.

This is bad, very bad for the league.

Has it ever happened that a team with the least goals have made playoffs?

I don't know how it is 'bad' for the league. At worst, they'll be first round cannon fodder just like DET/PHI/PIT would have been tipped to be. And if somehow the hockey gods smile on them and they go on some sort of run then I'm sure the league isn't going to complain about an "Ovie's last hurrah" story line.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I'm lurking in some other EC teams pages today.
Thorough analysis of other standings formats. Ofc happy Caps pulled through. During the last few days of the season there were so many scenarios involving 4-5 EC teams for Metro #3 & WC2. Odds were good tie breaks might have come into play. I find it interesting that Caps are seeded #6 in the other versions. This is partly due to the Atlantic being stronger than Metro from #3 on down. This goes in cycles. Years ago the Metro was stronger overall & Atlantic was top heavy.

B4 I continue, Rags will likely blow away Caps and any other team that finished WC2. Yes, upsets in hockey are not scarce... I'm happy Pitt didn't make it

As a statistician (don't hate me) the 3/ 2/ 1/ 0 all games worth 3pts. is the best system. That's four different point levels to match the four game outcomes (RW, OTW, OTL, RL) in a logical manner. What irks me about the current standings pt. system is that games ending in a tie are worth 50% more than those decided in regulation Supposedly one of the main reasons for the current system is that fans didn't like ties, but the 2/ 1/ 0 format allowing ties was game theoretic fair. The current one is not. It's gimmicky and there are psychological & business reasons for the current system. I've written longish posts on that and why all games = 3pts is best for current game outcomes years ago.

Cheers

I think the 3/2/1/0 system is the correct one, even though it wouldn’t benefit the Wings this season. It just makes more sense.

In the current system, going to OT should be a preferred result because it comes with a guarantee. The Islanders had 26 games go to overtime, compare that to the Lightning who had 16. That means the total valuation of points awarded in Islanders games this year is 190 and for Tampa that number is 180. Hard to make that make sense when they play the same number of games.

Psychologically speaking, they should be incentivizing coaches to try to win games in regulation. If going to OT, you may have a guaranteed point, but you lose the potential. A give and take. This avoids shootouts, this avoids additional wear and tear, it keeps the games shorter.

I’m very steadfast in wanting this change. The only other rule I would love to see changed ASAP is if a team possesses the puck in overtime and intentionally retreats out of the offensive zone, I would blow it dead and treat as an icing. You now have a defensive zone draw. A man advantage seems to stiff of punishment, but stopping play and facing a D zone draw would hopefully force teams to try to create more instead of trying to hem a team in the zone for 3 minutes by enter, cycle, change, regroup, repeat.

 

[norrisnick]

I think the 3/2/1/0 system is the correct one, even though it wouldn’t benefit the Wings this season. It just makes more sense.

In the current system, going to OT should be a preferred result because it comes with a guarantee. The Islanders had 26 games go to overtime, compare that to the Lightning who had 16. That means the total valuation of points awarded in Islanders games this year is 190 and for Tampa that number is 180. Hard to make that make sense when they play the same number of games.

Psychologically speaking, they should be incentivizing coaches to try to win games in regulation. If going to OT, you may have a guaranteed point, but you lose the potential. A give and take. This avoids shootouts, this avoids additional wear and tear, it keeps the games shorter.

I’m very steadfast in wanting this change. The only other rule I would love to see changed ASAP is if a team possesses the puck in overtime and intentionally retreats out of the offensive zone, I would blow it dead and treat as an icing. You now have a defensive zone draw. A man advantage seems to stiff of punishment, but stopping play and facing a D zone draw would hopefully force teams to try to create more instead of trying to hem a team in the zone for 3 minutes by enter, cycle, change, regroup, repeat.

I'd prefer a mandate to dump it in. Cross out of the o-zone, you get 2 seconds to dump the puck to the opposition or you take the icing-esque faceoff in your own end. I don't want unnecessary stoppages added. Keep the play moving.

 

[redwings8831]

Would we have made it in with the 3-2-1 system?

Caps - 123 (Metro #3)
Pens - 120 (32 RW, 36 ROW)
Isles - 120 (28 RW, 37 ROW)
Wings - 118
Flyers - 117
Sabres - 117

 

[ricky0034]

this is gonna be a long offseason

seeing people twist themselves into pretzels calling actually winning in regulation before silly 3 on 3 and shootout stuff comes into play a bad tiebreaker just because the Wings happen to be better at super gimmicky 3 on 3 play than other teams is already so tiresome

 

[14ari13]

I don't know how it is 'bad' for the league. At worst, they'll be first round cannon fodder just like DET/PHI/PIT would have been tipped to be. And if somehow the hockey gods smile on them and they go on some sort of run then I'm sure the league isn't going to complain about an "Ovie's last hurrah" story line.

It is very bad for hockey. That is boring hockey. The league should not reward that kind of hockey.
I don't have time to explain this, but I can mention it and then explain it more thoroughly later.

We played Nashville and lost 1-0, bot it was one of the best and most exciting games this season. We also played Washington and lost 2-0, but it was very boring game. I also think last night game which we won on SOs was not nearly as good and exciting as the game vs Nashville.

 

[Sadekuuro]

E: all it shows me is the league thinks OT and shootouts are a joke too because a win means less if it occurs then, above and beyond just the losing team accruing a point too.

Regular season OT and shootouts ARE a joke though -- for once the NHL is doing the right thing and prioritizing real wins. Sucks how it worked out for us this year but it's still better this way.

 

[Ezekial]

this is gonna be a long offseason

seeing people twist themselves into pretzels calling actually winning in regulation before silly 3 on 3 and shootout stuff comes into play a bad tiebreaker just because the Wings happen to be better at super gimmicky 3 on 3 play than other teams is already so tiresome

Nah it's going to be the cringe posts like these complaining about theoretical posts from other people.

 

[Henkka]

NHL Eastern Conference Vs Eastern Conference Record | StatMuse

The Montreal Canadiens had a 16-22-12 record in the Eastern Conference against the Eastern Conference this season.

www.statmuse.com

This is interesting table.

Toronto ended up being only 12th best Eastern team against Eastern Conference.

Of other eastern 7 playoff teams, Eastern Top7 went to playoffs. Red Wings were 8th best.

Toronto is a huge exception, they collected major load of their point against Western Conference teams.

Not a good indicator for Eastern playoff rounds....

 

[jkutswings]

Toronto is a huge exception, they collected major load of their point against Western Conference teams.

Not a good indicator for Eastern playoff rounds....

It's a shame that the Bruins and Leafs can't both be eliminated in the first round. But I expect Boston to win in 5.