2021 Offseason Discussion

[MissouriMook]

We have several looming UFAs to worry about this offseason in Schwartz, Hoffman and Bozak, but I feel like the most important thing to accomplish this offseason is to reach agreement on new deals with Parayko and Perron when they are allowed to extend.

I feel like Parayko probably hasn't earned much more than $6.5M if we're looking at a full 8 years or around $7M or so if we only go 5-7 years. With Perron, I feel like he wants to be here for the rest of his career. He just turned 32, so he will be 33 when his current deal expires. I would love to see a 2 year deal with a modest raise to $4.5M or $5M per year, then allow him to ride off into the sunset at his pace on cheaper 2 years deals or a series of 1 year deals with incentives given that he will be 35 and eligible for incentives when a 2 year extension expires.

Not only does locking these two players into their next deals solidify your veteran core, it also lets you know what you have available to spend on our (or someone else's) UFAs and our RFAs.

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[simon IC]

I agree with you on all points. I would like to see negotiations start as early as possible with Parayko, because I want to get an idea of where his head is at. I will be looking closely for any indication that he wants to move on.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

I like the idea of extending Perron and Parayko this summer.

As far as free agency goes, at forward I think guys like Landeskog(if COL doesn’t sign him of course), Hyman, Coleman, Saad, and Granlund would be good fits.

I like Danault, but that would only be a fit if Thomas or Schenn get moved in a blockbuster deal.

 

[HighNote]

After resigning Parayko and Perron, our defense should be the #1 priority. Unless we believe Mikkola can play on the top pairing with Parayko against top opposition, we need to find someone who can. The only other guy on the team that can is right handed.

X - Parayko
Krug - Faulk
Scandella/Mikkola/Dunn/Walman - Bortuzzo/Y

Krug belongs on the 2nd pairing getting mainly o-zone starts and PP time. Boston utilized him better than we have, but that's likely due to our injuries and personnel. I wouldn't be opposed to trading one or both of Scandella/Dunn. Scandella doesn't belong in the top 4, and we have better, cheaper options for the 3rd pairing than him. I'd only trade both Scandella and Dunn in the event that we've found that X player.

Maybe we could do something like Dunn+ for X, and Scandella for Y+. So I guess the question is, what's a team that has an X player and is willing to move on from him for a younger guy in Dunn plus a pick or prospect? I'm not looking for a #1 defenseman or someone to be "the guy." We just need a solid #2 that can compliment Parayko well. Little offense is required, I'm mainly looking for above average defense.

 

[Novacain]

I’ll be the one person to say it because I know it will bring a ton of heat, but it’s something that needs to be said: I’m honestly not sure if Parayko would want to extent as I would have to imagine he would view this season as a prove it chance. Army is notoriously hard nosed to negotiate with and would almost assuredly try to point out his lack of high end production the last 2 seasons, and try to put the price down.

And, honestly, I’m concerned how Colts game is going to age. He’s heavily reliant on his speed, and players his size tend to slow down earlier in there career then you’d expect. He’s 28 years old and coming of a pretty problematic back injury. Investing into him feels like a double edged sword to me.

 

[Prosaic]

I’ll be the one person to say it because I know it will bring a ton of heat, but it’s something that needs to be said: I’m honestly not sure if Parayko would want to extent as I would have to imagine he would view this season as a prove it chance. Army is notoriously hard nosed to negotiate with and would almost assuredly try to point out his lack of high end production the last 2 seasons, and try to put the price down.

And, honestly, I’m concerned how Colts game is going to age. He’s heavily reliant on his speed, and players his size tend to slow down earlier in there career then you’d expect. He’s 28 years old and coming of a pretty problematic back injury. Investing into him feels like a double edged sword to me.

Adding to that, his 2019-2020 campaign was really mediocre and all of his underlying numbers fell off a cliff from where they were in 2016-2019.

Relying a lot on his speed, size and physical attributes doesn't bode well going forward. He doesn't have the high end skill with the puck and instincts that defensemen who age well into their mid 30's typically have. He's always been a disappointment offensively, I can't see that changing as he reaches 30 and I wouldn't project him to age well given he already showed signs of slowing down in 2019-2020.

The back injury is also pretty scary. An example of how it can effect a player, look at Gardiner who's basically the 8th defensemen on Carolina.

Just to back my 2019-2020 point, he ranked 133rd in xGF%, 62nd in xGA/60, whereas in 2018-19 he ranked 41st and 9th respectively. I could go into more numbers but I think everyone gets the point.

 

[Novacain]

Adding to that, his 2019-2020 campaign was really mediocre and all of his underlying numbers fell off a cliff from where they were in 2016-2019.

Relying a lot on his speed, size and physical attributes doesn't bode well going forward. He doesn't have the high end skill with the puck and instincts that defensemen who age well into their mid 30's typically have. He's always been a disappointment offensively, I can't see that changing as he reaches 30 and I wouldn't project him to age well given he already showed signs of slowing down in 2019-2020.

The back injury is also pretty scary. An example of how it can effect a player, look at Gardiner who's basically the 8th defensemen on Carolina.

Just to back my 2019-2020 point, he ranked 133rd in xGF%, 62nd in xGA/60, whereas in 2018-19 he ranked 41st and 9th respectively. I could go into more numbers but I think everyone gets the point.

Honestly, this is the other point I think people try to avoid: there’s this mindset that once Colt is healthy he’ll be back to the top flight player he was before while ignoring there were holes developing into his game before the injury. He just flat out wasn’t that good in 19/20. He was fine, but not an impact player.

If I’m Colt if Army is trying to re-sign me, I’d price myself at higher then Krug and Faulk got, and I think he’d be perfectly in the right to want that much. And, to be blunt, I don’t think the Blues can afford to go up to 20 million locked into on D for Krug, Faulk, and Parayko long term, which is what we’d be looking at.

 

[Brian39]

I will be surprised if Parayko is here for the start of 2022/23. The decline in his play before the injury and then the back injury make it difficult to give him $6.5M+, 6-8 years, and a NMC from a GM who doesn't give NMCs. Without getting all of those things, I don't know what incentive he has not to test the UFA market. I worry that we have returned to "prove it" territory for the type/length of contract that he will demand and that the allure of an approaching UFA summer will be strong if/when he has proven that he is back to his old self. I agree with @Novacain about Colt likely wanting to price himself higher than Faulk/Krug. If I were him, I wouldn't accept a dime less than what either of them got and I would demand greater trade protection.

Edmonton only has 6 guys under contract after next season and every D man on their roster besides Klefbom needs a new contract between now and then. After being swept, I have to think that they will be looking to drastically rebuild the supporting cast around McDavid and Drai. I could see him curious to see what kind of contract he could get to play close to home with the best player in the world. Calgary has similar flexibility and Gio's contract expires after next season as well.

I hope I'm wrong about it, but I am not expecting a deal to get done here in St. Louis.

 

[mk80]

I am going to drop the Armstrong and Berube interviews here for those looking for them. And I'm sure topics discussed here can draw on them for reference:

 

[BansheeD3341]

The main issue I see currently is how the team is built vs how the coach wants to play.

Berube likes to play a heavy defensive orientated style. Special teams must excel in his system. Forwards must be physical and play the defensive end.

Armstrong has been transitioning the team to a smaller and faster team for at least a few years. If we hadn’t went on that long win streak and won the cup, this team would be extremely different.

bottom line - they must commit one way or the other, because this year it was obvious they were caught in the middle and conflicted. You have to commit to Berube and his style (harder path). Or completely transition to the faster play ....Berube either must adapt or he will be replaced mid season next year.

 

[MissouriMook]

I will be surprised if Parayko is here for the start of 2022/23. The decline in his play before the injury and then the back injury make it difficult to give him $6.5M+, 6-8 years, and a NMC from a GM who doesn't give NMCs. Without getting all of those things, I don't know what incentive he has not to test the UFA market. I worry that we have returned to "prove it" territory for the type/length of contract that he will demand and that the allure of an approaching UFA summer will be strong if/when he has proven that he is back to his old self. I agree with @Novacain about Colt likely wanting to price himself higher than Faulk/Krug. If I were him, I wouldn't accept a dime less than what either of them got and I would demand greater trade protection.

Edmonton only has 6 guys under contract after next season and every D man on their roster besides Klefbom needs a new contract between now and then. After being swept, I have to think that they will be looking to drastically rebuild the supporting cast around McDavid and Drai. I could see him curious to see what kind of contract he could get to play close to home with the best player in the world. Calgary has similar flexibility and Gio's contract expires after next season as well.

I hope I'm wrong about it, but I am not expecting a deal to get done here in St. Louis.

I hope you’re wrong, too, but if you’re not I would be really disappointed if we don’t move him in a hockey trade this offseason while he still has more than rental value.

 

[MissouriMook]

The main issue I see currently is how the team is built vs how the coach wants to play.

Berube likes to play a heavy defensive orientated style. Special teams must excel in his system. Forwards must be physical and play the defensive end.

Armstrong has been transitioning the team to a smaller and faster team for at least a few years. If we hadn’t went on that long win streak and won the cup, this team would be extremely different.

bottom line - they must commit one way or the other, because this year it was obvious they were caught in the middle and conflicted. You have to commit to Berube and his style (harder path). Or completely transition to the faster play ....Berube either must adapt or he will be replaced mid season next year.

It can be hard to reconcile, especially for the staunch Berube supporters, but just about every team is getting faster and more skilled and very few are getting bigger and more physical. Unless you can unlock the formula to neutralize an opponent’s speed and skill with brute force, you’re going to have to try to keep up with the rest of the league and I’m not sure Chief is the guy to lead this or any team down that path.

 

[simon IC]

The main issue I see currently is how the team is built vs how the coach wants to play.

Berube likes to play a heavy defensive orientated style. Special teams must excel in his system. Forwards must be physical and play the defensive end.

Armstrong has been transitioning the team to a smaller and faster team for at least a few years. If we hadn’t went on that long win streak and won the cup, this team would be extremely different.

bottom line - they must commit one way or the other, because this year it was obvious they were caught in the middle and conflicted. You have to commit to Berube and his style (harder path). Or completely transition to the faster play ....Berube either must adapt or he will be replaced mid season next year.

I disagree with the bolded. Our roster has gotten smaller, but not faster. Our lack of speed was glaringly exposed during the Colorado series. Kyrou and Thomas, who were developed internally, are really the only added speed we have. None of the additions Armstrong has made through trade or free agency have made us significantly faster.

 

[RR10]

It can be hard to reconcile, especially for the staunch Berube supporters, but just about every team is getting faster and more skilled and very few are getting bigger and more physical. Unless you can unlock the formula to neutralize an opponent’s speed and skill with brute force, you’re going to have to try to keep up with the rest of the league and I’m not sure Chief is the guy to lead this or any team down that path.

And his dump and chase hockey is both boring and ineffective. Thank him for the cup and move on from him.

 

[RR10]

I disagree with the bolded. Our roster has gotten smaller, but not faster. Our lack of speed was glaringly exposed during the Colorado series. Kyrou and Thomas, who were developed internally, are really the only added speed we have. None of the additions Armstrong has made through trade or free agency have made us significantly faster.

Totally agree. Blues are one of the slowest teams in the league.

 

[mk80]

I disagree with the bolded. Our roster has gotten smaller, but not faster. Our lack of speed was glaringly exposed during the Colorado series. Kyrou and Thomas, who were developed internally, are really the only added speed we have. None of the additions Armstrong has made through trade or free agency have made us significantly faster.

Outside of Thomas, Kyrou, Perunovich, and Fabbri... I can't really think of many recent draft picks who also fit the mold for that style of play either.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Walman is another guy that can skate. I think its time to start including him in these discussions.

 

[Celtic Note]

Dunn can skate too.

Kostin has straight line speed.

 

[simon IC]

Hey, we have something here. We need speed. Who are the players mentioned in this thread that have that?
Thomas
Kyrou
Walman
Dunn
Kostin
There you go. That is who you build around!

 

[Blueston]

Army looks like he aged a decade over last year.

 

[Frenzy31]

Army looks like he aged a decade over last year.

It was a tough year for everyone. Toss in the fact his father passed this year and the team had more injuries then most.....

 

[Blueston]

Reading between lines of Army's presser, I anticipate:

• Schwartz walks unless he is willing to settle for less term and $
• Bozak could return (at less $ as he isn't getting $5mm anywhere)
• Hoffman is gone
• I would expect we make change to assistant coaches
• We lose either Dunn or Barbie to expansion
• We deal Sanford and Dunn (if Seattle doesn't take them)
• Kostin makes opening night roster
• We bring in 1 top 4 LD and 1 middle 6 winger (to replace Schwartz and Hoffman)
• We are banking on Parayko and Tarasenko to rebound bc not many avenues to get #1D or 30 goal scorer

 

[Celtic Note]

Reading between lines of Army's presser, I anticipate:

• Schwartz walks unless he is willing to settle for less term and $
• Bozak could return (at less $ as he isn't getting $5mm anywhere)
• Hoffman is gone
• I would expect we make change to assistant coaches
• We lose either Dunn or Barbie to expansion
• We deal Sanford and Dunn (if Seattle doesn't take them)
• Kostin makes opening night roster
• We bring in 1 top 4 LD and 1 middle 6 winger (to replace Schwartz and Hoffman)
• We are banking on Parayko and Tarasenko to rebound bc not many avenues to get #1D or 30 goal scorer

Just to clarify, this is your opinion of where we will head based on the presser, not what was suggested during the presser.

 

[Blueston]

Just to clarify, this is your opinion of where we will head based on the presser, not what was suggested during the presser.

Correct. Army never says exactly what he is going to do, but he hints at what he is thinking. This is my interpretation of what he said, even though he didn't outright say any of this.

 

[Frenzy31]

I know we just got swept and in truth, we have looked like the walking dead since COVID started. But I want to remind everyone something very quickly.

The season we trade for Schenn, we didn’t make the playoffs at all. Part of the Schenn deal included what would become the number 14 pick on the draft.

The next season we take home the cup.

There have been seasons when we were expected to be world beaters (UFA Staz) only to be bounced in the first round.

IMO get into the playoffs and see what happens.

For me, everything depends on Colt’s view/plan. If he is leaving, then I trade him and start the process of rebuilding. While I think a retool is possible, I would think about a scorched earth approach. Let Schwartz et al walk. Don’t dig too heavily into the UFA world and start moving some vets like Barby, Sunny D.