Speculation: 2021 Entry Draft Talk

Ed Ned and Leddy

Brokering the Bally Sports + Corncob TV Merger
Apr 1, 2019
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Detroit to DC
Johnson came up in the last page, so I figured I'd offer some info for folks who haven't been able to watch him at Michigan.

On the powerplay, he works off the left half wall. Unlike right-handed scoring threats like Ovechkin/Seguin, who drift wide looking for a one-timer, Johnson tends to drift in, looking to use his accurate wrist shot near side. He has good puck control and vision as well, which makes him a nice asset on the man advantage.

At even strength he's almost always lined up off Beniers' left wing, although he played a bit of center when guys were away for the WJCs. Personally, I think he's more likely a winger than center long-term. His offensive skill is his best quality, and I'm not sure he has the athleticism to carry the responsibilities of an NHL center without limiting his offensive upside. Granted, it can't hurt to give him more opportunities at center in either the NCAA or AHL levels to see. I just wouldn't want to see a Galchenyuk/Drouin situation where he's tried unsuccessfully at center for so long that it stifles his development.

Long term, I think there is real first-line, point-per-game upside here. That said, I think he's a guy you've got to be patient with. Personally, I'd envision that he probably needs another full year at Michigan, then probably a full year in the AHL, then he'll probably face some growing pains in his first year or two at the NHL level. But by the time he's 22/23 years old I think you're likely looking at a skilled offensive top 6 forward, maybe even a bonafide 1C.

If you're a BPA purist, Johnson should probably be pretty damn high on your board. I wouldn't blink if a team took him first overall in this hectic draft. For the Wings specifically, however, I think there are some complications unless you see him as a no-doubt center prospect. Johnson and Raymond operate best off the same half wall, so you'd either have to split them on different units or move one player to the opposite half wall (a good problem to have tbf, but something worth mentioning). More generally, if Johnson sticks at LW it leaves the Red Wings another year with a glaring hole in a top 6 center spot and two glaring holes at the LHD spot. Moving some of our excess wingers could alleviate some of that, but you're not getting a Power/Hughes/Beniers level D or C prospect in a trade around Mantha or Bertuzzi, so there is some opportunity cost to consider there.

Personally, I'm not sure I'd have the balls to draft Johnson top 3 over guys like Power/Beniers/Hughes who have similar upside at positions of greater need. But if we're picking in that 4-9 range again, I think Johnson should definitely be considered.
 
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Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,837
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Yeah! God forbid we end up with any Hoglanders, DeBrincats, Berggrens, Gallaghers, Rossis, Caulfields, Brieres, Gaudreaus and Hudlers. We want more Rasmussens, Boyles and Jessimans on this team!

Do I need to post all of the players above 5'9'' who are better NHLers than your list? Or that even now you're already padding your list with guys who were listed taller than 5'9'' in the NHL...
 
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OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
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Johnson came up in the last page, so I figured I'd offer some info for folks who haven't been able to watch him at Michigan.

On the powerplay, he works off the left half wall. Unlike right-handed scoring threats like Ovechkin/Seguin, who drift wide looking for a one-timer, Johnson tends to drift in, looking to use his accurate wrist shot near side. He has good puck control and vision as well, which makes him a nice asset on the man advantage.

At even strength he's almost always lined up off Beniers' left wing, although he played a bit of center when guys were away for the WJCs. Personally, I think he's more likely a winger than center long-term. His offensive skill is his best quality, and I'm not sure he has the athleticism to carry the responsibilities of an NHL center without limiting his offensive upside. Granted, it can't hurt to give him more opportunities at center in either the NCAA or AHL levels to see. I just wouldn't want to see a Galchenyuk/Drouin situation where he's tried unsuccessfully at center for so long that it stifles his development.

Long term, I think there is real first-line, point-per-game upside here. That said, I think he's a guy you've got to be patient with. Personally, I'd envision that he probably needs another full year at Michigan, then probably a full year in the AHL, then he'll probably face some growing pains in his first year or two at the NHL level. But by the time he's 22/23 years old I think you're likely looking at a skilled offensive top 6 forward, maybe even a bonafide 1C.

If you're a BPA purist, Johnson should probably be pretty damn high on your board. I wouldn't blink if a team took him first overall in this hectic draft. For the Wings specifically, however, I think there are some complications unless you see him as a no-doubt center prospect. Johnson and Raymond operate best off the same half wall, so you'd either have to split them on different units or move one player to the opposite half wall (a good problem to have tbf, but something worth mentioning). More generally, if Johnson sticks at LW it leaves the Red Wings another year with a glaring hole in a top 6 center spot and two glaring holes at the LHD spot. Moving some of our excess wingers could alleviate some of that, but you're not getting a Power/Hughes/Beniers level D or C prospect in a trade around Mantha or Bertuzzi, so there is some opportunity cost to consider there.

Personally, I'm not sure I'd have the balls to draft Johnson top 3 over guys like Power/Beniers/Hughes who have similar upside at positions of greater need. But if we're picking in that 4-9 range again, I think Johnson should definitely be considered.

Johnson has the most flash of any player in the top 5 for sure, but I don't know if that means he's got the most talent or he's got the potential to be the best. I look at him as a guy that's got great all around offensive tools, but he also has a lot more flaws to his game than others. On the EP podcast they were discussing him as a guy that took longer to learn the finer details than someone like Beniers. I don't think that'll be a huge concern in his game, but I think it will put him on a longer learning curve than Beniers who could probably be our 2nd or 3rd line C tomorrow.

I think he could become a Sam Gagner, or he could become a Jordan Eberle. But I don't think he'll be a dominant player in the league. Likely either a good 2nd liner or a good 1st liner. And I think that it'll be about 85% he's a winger over center. Probably not Detroit's pick but I could see him going to Phoenix or Anaheim somewhere around 5-7.
 

OgeeOgelthorpe

Baldina
Feb 29, 2020
17,214
18,339
Do I need to post all of the players above 5'9'' who are better NHLers than your list? Or that even now you're already padding your list with guys who were listed taller than 5'9'' in the NHL...

I get it, the majority of NHLers are 5'11" and up and the list of players smaller than that is, well, small. But just because a player is small doesn't mean they can't make it.
 

Christien

Registered User
May 1, 2010
5,134
3,532
Has anybody here seen Jack Peart play? I saw his name pop up on the draft simulator, and he's a kid from Grand Rapids that's ranked in the top 100 of the draft. Some even have him as high as 54. Left shot D, that's on the smaller side, 5'11 but 181 lbs.
 

lilidk

Registered User
Mar 4, 2008
9,856
3,592
Johnson has the most flash of any player in the top 5 for sure, but I don't know if that means he's got the most talent or he's got the potential to be the best. I look at him as a guy that's got great all around offensive tools, but he also has a lot more flaws to his game than others. On the EP podcast they were discussing him as a guy that took longer to learn the finer details than someone like Beniers. I don't think that'll be a huge concern in his game, but I think it will put him on a longer learning curve than Beniers who could probably be our 2nd or 3rd line C tomorrow.

I think he could become a Sam Gagner, or he could become a Jordan Eberle. But I don't think he'll be a dominant player in the league. Likely either a good 2nd liner or a good 1st liner. And I think that it'll be about 85% he's a winger over center. Probably not Detroit's pick but I could see him going to Phoenix or Anaheim somewhere around 5-7.
Johnson is in my do not draft list.
 

Ed Ned and Leddy

Brokering the Bally Sports + Corncob TV Merger
Apr 1, 2019
3,635
5,842
Detroit to DC
Johnson has the most flash of any player in the top 5 for sure, but I don't know if that means he's got the most talent or he's got the potential to be the best.

This I agree with 100%, and I'm usually one to bang on that "highest offensive skill != highest ceiling." I still give Beniers the edge over Johnson personally, although I think a compelling argument can be made for either player.

I look at him as a guy that's got great all around offensive tools, but he also has a lot more flaws to his game than others.

This I sort of disagree with. I feel like his "flaws" are primarily athletic. He needs to add a quicker first step, he needs to get stronger to protect the puck at higher levels, he needs to win more board battles. But I wouldn't say he really has bad habits or glaring holes in his game. For a player with his skill/creativity, he rarely turns the puck over in dangerous areas, which is a problem prospects like Johnson often have. He never really looks disengaged defensively, he's just not particularly strong there. Compared to a similar prospect like Cole Perfetti, for example, I'd say Johnson's overall game looks more well-rounded against better competition (NCAA vs. OHL).

On the EP podcast they were discussing him as a guy that took longer to learn the finer details than someone like Beniers. I don't think that'll be a huge concern in his game, but I think it will put him on a longer learning curve than Beniers who could probably be our 2nd or 3rd line C tomorrow.

I think he could become a Sam Gagner, or he could become a Jordan Eberle. But I don't think he'll be a dominant player in the league. Likely either a good 2nd liner or a good 1st liner. And I think that it'll be about 85% he's a winger over center. Probably not Detroit's pick but I could see him going to Phoenix or Anaheim somewhere around 5-7.

I agree with pretty much all of this, although I think I'd frame it differently. I think a player with a top 6 likelihood and legitimate top line upside is in the right ballpark for a 4-9ish pick, especially in this draft. The unfortunate reality is that we're likely picking in that 4-9 range yet again, and in that range I think Johnson is firmly in the discussion.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,837
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Cleveland
I get it, the majority of NHLers are 5'11" and up and the list of players smaller than that is, well, small. But just because a player is small doesn't mean they can't make it.

And I'd just rather bet on the guy with at least average size on his side. I mean, if we get into the third round, or even late 2nd, and there is some kid on the board who is unquestionably more skilled than the other choices, and ideally he has a work ethic to match, yeah, I could get down for it then. But we are drafting at the top of each round and being that small really puts a guy behind the eight ball. We need a homerun pick or two in that area but we also need to limit a bit one of those picks going off the rails wrong.
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
6,048
2,758
When I watch Johnson I think he should have the puck much more than he does. Yet he finds his way all over the score sheet. He has a ton of natural skill but needs the most development, which makes him harder to project in certain senses. If you value pure skill with the puck above all else (i.e. IQ, skating, size, position, defense, yadda) chances are you like him (if you actually watch him).

Beniers vs. Johnson is still really hard for me, but those two currently have a firm grip on my 3 and 4 spots.
 

wingerdinger

Registered User
Oct 21, 2018
1,154
1,063
Whenever I've watched the puck seems to follow Johnson around, despite him being the least physically developed player in the league. I have no idea how he'll translate to the pros, but this team needs more players like that.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,245
14,755
Mock Draft Tool

I've brought over the link for the mock draft tool linked in the previous thread. And quit drafting 5'9'' guys in the first two rounds, @Frk It :thumbd:

Elite prospects has Samsokevich at 5’11 and 190 lbs, not sure why that FC draft tool has different figures?

Duke is listed at 5’10 and 180 on elite prospects.

Seems like they may have old measurements.

So :razz:
 
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ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
1,552
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Leaning Hughes over power at this point. Power may well be the more effective well rounded player but he’s pretty boring to watch imo. He lacks physicality and has zero flash. Just ultra steady which is great but I think I’d lean for a little more dynamism in one category, which has me inching towards Hughes.

also starting to think this lack of separation at the top is a little overblown. I have a pretty clear top 3 forming of power, Hughes, beniers. With eklund knocking on the door.
 
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BStinson

Registered User
Nov 11, 2013
2,364
555
Leaning Hughes over power at this point. Power may well be the more effective well rounded player but he’s pretty boring to watch imo. He lacks physicality and has zero flash. Just ultra steady which is great but I think I’d lean for a little more dynamism in one category, which has me inching towards Hughes.

also starting to think this lack of separation at the top is a little overblown. I have a pretty clear top 3 forming of power, Hughes, beniers. With eklund knocking on the door.
What do you mean ‘dynamism’? Is it his skating that gives you the edge and/or his DOB? I’ve only watched clips of his and reports of his so just curious.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,245
14,755
Leaning Hughes over power at this point. Power may well be the more effective well rounded player but he’s pretty boring to watch imo. He lacks physicality and has zero flash. Just ultra steady which is great but I think I’d lean for a little more dynamism in one category, which has me inching towards Hughes.

also starting to think this lack of separation at the top is a little overblown. I have a pretty clear top 3 forming of power, Hughes, beniers. With eklund knocking on the door.

What puts those 3 in a group above Johnson?

If you want someone entertaining or dynamic, you should definitely be including Johnson.
 

ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
1,552
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What do you mean ‘dynamism’? Is it his skating that gives you the edge and/or his DOB? I’ve only watched clips of his and reports of his so just curious.
Luke Hughes plays a dynamic offensive game with his feet/head. He’s not Quinn but it looks to me like he can develop that into an elite tool in the nhl. He’s exciting to watch. Power is more of a good at everything kind of guy that can be unnoticeable for stretches (entire games+) (in a good way). And for a big guy he uses that size defensively but he’s no seider in terms of aggressiveness.

I wanna see some flash in my top 5 pick. I think. (I’m no scout and this is from watching both separately a handful of times)
 
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ArmChairGM89

Registered User
Dec 10, 2019
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What puts those 3 in a group above Johnson?

If you want someone entertaining or dynamic, you should definitely be including Johnson.
I think matty has a more well rounded game and has understated offensive “flash” in his game. I think he can do what Johnson does +. Again I’m no scout and I’ve watched maybe 5 games of each usndtp kid separately.
 

Christien

Registered User
May 1, 2010
5,134
3,532
This is interesting. Tough break for the kid. Maybe there’s a good chance he falls to us now if we slip a few spots in the lottery.

 

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