Prospect Info: 2021 Ducks Prospect Rankings #8

[MMC]

It's time for our annual Ducks prospect rankings. Each poll will run for 48 hours except in the case of a clear landslide. I will go to the top 25 and include a final poll where you can pick 5 honorable mentions. Please tell me who you want me to add in the replies. In the eighth poll, I am voting for Jackson Lacombe.

As always the list will define prospects as hockeysfuture does: NHL Prospect Criteria - Hockey's Future.

2021 Ducks Prospect Rankings
1. C - Trevor Zegras (no change)
2. D - Jamie Drysdale (no change)
3. C - Mason McTavish (1st year)
4. G - Lukas Dostal (-1)
5. RW - Jacob Perreault (no change)
6. D - Olen Zellweger (1st year)
7 D - Henry Thrun (no change)

Our notable graduates and departures are:

Max Comtois
Isac Lundestrom
Antoine Morand
Jack Kopacka
Matthew Hill​

Click to read more...

 

[MMC]

It was hard for me to pick between Lacombe, Groulx, and Pastujov and I think they round out the top 10.

 

[bsu]

Pasta

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Went with Lacombe here. I really think he his development is coming along nicely.

 

[AngelDuck]

I think it’s LaCombe with Pastujov/Groulx/Moore in the next grouping

Moore is really slept on. Great physical tools and has big upside to rapidly improve in the next couple seasons. I could really see him shooting up this list soon

 

[JabbaJabba]

LaCombe.

 

[gilfaizon]

I think Groulx will be a more likely NHLer than LaCombe or Pasta, so went with that mindset. Those were my 3 for consideration, echoing others.

 

[Kalv]

Went with Groulx but LaCombe is a solid pick in my opinion

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Moore is really slept on. Great physical tools and has big upside to rapidly improve in the next couple seasons. I could really see him shooting up this list soon

Didn’t Moore have a scouting report similar to Lacombe? I thought the knock on Moore was that he needed to work on his technical abilities.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I went with LaCombe.

If you remove the name, height/weight, and league from the scouting reports of LaCombe and Zellweger, then you'd think it's a scouting report for one player: long term project that possesses high offensive upside with lots of speed. LaCombe was projected as a long term project with very high upside, but the risk was if he can translate his high school game to the NCAA. For the past two years, LaCombe has solidified his probability of reaching his high potential by being part of the Big-10 all freshman team and Big-10 first team in his sophomore year, Owen Power was on the second team. What is surprising about LaCombe's game is he loves to block shots. In his freshman year, he finished second on the team with 61 blocked shots. The next year, he finished third on the team with 33 blocked shots.

It's unfortunate that the only time most people could have watched LaCombe was at the WJC-20 tourney and LaCombe wilted. To be fair, everyone on the team wilted against the Russians, but LaCombe couldn't recover fast enough to re-established himself. LaCombe was exposed to all those talents collected on the same ice at the WJC-20. The tourney turned out far better for LaCombe's play once he returned to the NCAA with a 0.90 ppg rate. Before the WJC-20, LaCombe has a scoring rate of 0.33 ppg.

 

[Kalv]

I went with LaCombe.

If you remove the name, height/weight, and league from the scouting reports of LaCombe and Zellweger, then you'd think it's a scouting report for one player: long term project that possesses high offensive upside with lots of speed. LaCombe was projected as a long term project with very high upside, but the risk was if he can translate his high school game to the NCAA. For the past two years, LaCombe has solidified his probability of reaching his high potential by being part of the Big-10 all freshman team and Big-10 first team in his sophomore year, Owen Power was on the second team. What is surprising about LaCombe's game is he loves to block shots. In his freshman year, he finished second on the team with 61 blocked shots. The next year, he finished third on the team with 33 blocked shots.

It's unfortunate that the only time most people could have watched LaCombe was at the WJC-20 tourney and LaCombe wilted. To be fair, everyone on the team wilted against the Russians, but LaCombe couldn't recover fast enough to re-established himself. LaCombe was exposed to all those talents collected on the same ice at the WJC-20. The tourney turned out far better for LaCombe's play once he returned to the NCAA with a 0.90 ppg rate. Before the WJC-20, LaCombe has a scoring rate of 0.33 ppg.

I would argue here that Zellweger is much more established, his only knock is his size.

LaCombe was tall, but hadn't grown into himself yet, plus his skills were raw as well.

I think it will take less years for Zellweger to reach the NHL.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

Went with Tracey, a first round pick just two years ago with lots of racetrack left.

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I would argue here that Zellweger is much more established, his only knock is his size.

LaCombe was tall, but hadn't grown into himself yet, plus his skills were raw as well.

I think it will take less years for Zellweger to reach the NHL.

From the Last Word on Sports scouting report on Zellweger:

Projection and Comparison

Zellweger has the tools to be a top-four defender at the NHL level if he reaches his ceiling. His lack of size and strength will likely prevent him from playing against the opposition’s best players but his skating and offensive game could see him develop into an important contributor at even strength and on the power play. He will need time to add muscle to his frame as well as work on his play away from the puck. Zellweger is one of the youngest players in the draft. If he was five days younger, he would be part of the 2022 NHL Draft. Zellweger needs several years at the WHL and AHL levels before he can make an NHL impact. His game is reminiscent of Quinn Hughes. This is a stylistic comparison only though, not one based on skill and ability.​

 

[91Fedorov]

Went with Tracey, a first round pick just two years ago with lots of racetrack left.

I went Tracey too. Most sites I've seen have him in our top 10. Why are we so down on him here?

 

[FiveHoleTickler]

I went Tracey too. Most sites I've seen have him in our top 10. Why are we so down on him here?

His development trajectory has cratered since he was drafted. Plenty others have improved since being drafted, thus passing him up in the development depth chart.

 

[MMC]

Tracey being as low as he will be says more about the depth of our farm than him IMO

 

[Goose of Reason]

I went Groulx again but Volkov is a weird one. I'm wondering if I should be voting for him here. I actually like his skillset and think he has top 6 talent even if he was a bit inconsistent this year.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

lacombe for me... hes arguably upped his stock the most out of the remaining prospects..... after that its a toss up between pastujov and groulx for me... pastujov for upside, groulx for established.

 

[Anaheim4ever]

Tracey being as low as he will be says more about the depth of our farm than him IMO

Yeah totally. With Volkov being considered a prospect then i see Volkov at #11 & that pushes Tracey even further down to at least #12 but i think i have Moore at #12 and then Tracey or McLaughlin at #13.
Tracey probably wins the poll at #12 because of name recognition over Moore.

 

[Smirnov2Chistov]

Went with Tracey, a first round pick just two years ago with lots of racetrack left.

I went Tracey too. Most sites I've seen have him in our top 10. Why are we so down on him here?

I just don’t see the upside Tracey has that supposedly Madden and co. saw in him two years ago. I wasn’t a fan of the pick then, and judging by his development now, it just confuses me why he was chosen. Lots of better options out there during that time.

I don’t even know what to classify him as. I don’t see him as a sniper, maybe a playmaker?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

I went Tracey too. Most sites I've seen have him in our top 10. Why are we so down on him here?

tl;dr version: The reason why some are down on Tracey is due to his lack of production in 12 AHL games this past season as a 19-year old, especially when compared to Zegras, Drysdale, and Perreault. Those three prospects skew the process for players who do need more time to develop.

epic version:
Perreault has elite skills that projected to be a top-10 prospect, but dropped to the bottom of the first round due to his lack of motivation to play a 200-ft game (doesn't play defense). We went through a couple of players like Perreault in Sprong and Aberg. Also, Perreault is physically advanced compared to Tracey.

Perreault: 5'11 and 192 lbs
Tracey: 6'0 and 176 lbs​

Tracey was selected in the bottom of the first round as a project as he was a late bloomer, which is the pattern the Ducks' scouting staff loves to do follow. Although Tracey didn't put up any points as a 19-year old in the AHL, John Broadbent from the Defend the Next blog site for the San Diego Gulls reports the process for Tracey was there at the AHL:

There were several games – especially early on in the season – where it seems Tracey did everything but score.

As I noted in my game reports and on twitter, he is so adept at slipping into the soft areas undected and found himself at the end of a bang-bang play that he either fired right into the opposing teams logo or shanked off a post or sent wide.

Once the WHL started back up again he had to return to Victoria where he scored 9 goals and added 12 assists in 22 games, leading the Royals in points but still only good for 53rdish overall in the high scoring league. He will look to start his first FULL professional career season next year – drafted as more of a play-maker, I would like to see more of that side of him along with some more poise with the puck as he gets more comfor[t]able with the pro-game.​

For the past two OHL seasons, Tracey has led three teams in scoring. He proved that he can score without overagers when he was drafted.

Tracey	WHL
Year	Year	Team	Games	G	A	Pts	Pts/Game
2018-19	D	Moose Jaw	66	36	45	81	1.23
2019-20	D+1	Moose Jaw	28	15	23	38	1.36
		Victoria	24	7	16	23	0.96
2020-21	D+2	Victoria	20	8	11	19	0.95

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In Tracey's draft year, his team was a 1-line stacked team, including defensemen. The risk of drafting Tracey was about if he was a product of good teammates or can he actually produce on his own. Despite losing all of his line mates at ES (due to age graduation or trades) with Moose Jaw and left with not a lot of talent, Tracey surpassed his scoring rate in his D+1 season. Then he was traded in the season to a defensive minded and lack of scoring team, the Victoria Royals. He led them in scoring as well, but COVID shutdown the playoff-bound Royals. Tracey's D+1 season solidified that he is one of the top prospect for Anaheim. Last year, the Royals traded away several top talents and Tracey was left in the same situation he was in with Moose Jaw in his D+1 season, which is playing without a lot of talent on the team. He still led the Royals in scoring in his D+2 season.​

If we focus on his WHL seasons, then Tracey has proven to be a dual threat on offense for three consecutive seasons and a scoring leader for the past two seasons on three teams. What is interesting about Tracey's D+2 season in the WHL was his PP production on a team lacking an awful lot of talent.

Tracey	WHL
Year	Team	Games	G	A	Pts	.	PPG	PPA	PPP	PP to Pts ratio
2018-19	Moose Jaw	66	36	45	81		12	15	27	0.333
2019-20	Moose Jaw	28	15	23	38		8	6	14	0.368
	Victoria	24	7	16	24		2	5	7	0.292
2020-21	Victoria	20	8	11	19		6	6	12	0.632

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Over 63% of Tracey's points last year was on the PP. Anaheim needs talented players to help it out on the PP.
​

The problem Tracey has with some fans is the stigma that he isn't Zegras, Drysdale, or Perreault. Zegras is produced in his D+1 season in the AHL and NHL. Drysdale won AHL rookie of the month and looks to be an NHL-mainstay in his draft year. Perreault produced in his draft year on paper, but people forget he was just as lost as Tracey was to begin the season. Yet, Perreault was able to work through it and put up points. Tracey can't be seen as his own player and working at his own pace. Tracey is a long term project because he was a late bloomer and rail thin when drafted. His 12-game AHL stint as a 19-year old is the sole reason many believe that Tracey is already a bust. It doesn't make sense to come to that conclusion so early in a late bloomer's hockey career, but that's what it is for some.

 

[The Midnight Burrito]

I went Tracey too. Most sites I've seen have him in our top 10. Why are we so down on him here?

Because his production tanked and then he looked awful as a kid in San Diego. Remains to be seen whether his numbers dip is circumstantial (poor quality of teammates, not physically ready for pro hockey) versus something more serious with his development.

 

[Kalv]

I went Tracey too. Most sites I've seen have him in our top 10. Why are we so down on him here?

He really haven't produced. I know he was part of a horrible team and then of a defensive minded team, and then he was a teenager in the AHL, but it does not look too promising for him. By no means he is done or anything like that, but I think it's fair to say his development didn't go as planned.

He is a pure scorer and if he is not doing that – it's not good. Where is he playing next year? Going pro full time, or returning for an overage year?

 

[Hockey Duckie]

He really haven't produced. I know he was part of a horrible team and then of a defensive minded team, and then he was a teenager in the AHL, but it does not look too promising for him. By no means he is done or anything like that, but I think it's fair to say his development didn't go as planned.

He is a pure scorer and if he is not doing that – it's not good. Where is he playing next year? Going pro full time, or returning for an overage year?

Exclude his AHL play and tell me who and what type of player Tracey is. (I put up all the stats two posts above you in case you needed help researching him.)

 

[MMC]

I don’t understand why people are using the fact that Tracey struggled in a league no CHL player his age would ever normally play in as some sort of indicator that he isn’t and is never going to develop