NHL Entry Draft 2020 NHL Draft Discussion - Part VIII

[danielpalfredsson]

the talk about getting screwed is funny, the stop in play couldn't have come at a better time. I doubt we finish with 2 picks in the bottom 3 after a normal 82 game season.

The Senators aren't getting screwed, because the worst case here is the draft lottery stays the same. I can't speak for everybody else, but the issue I have is two fold.

1 - Other teams are getting playoffs (that totally aren't playoffs right?) and the possibility of retaining a lottery pick.
2 - There is a chance for power house teams to win a lottery spot if they lose the opening round of the "let's not call it the" 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs.

With that said, I'd argue that the timing of the season ending might have been bad for Ottawa. If you look at where teams were trending, it was likely that we would have ended up with the same two picks with the only difference being San Jose's would have been higher since they were absolutely done with so many stars getting hurt. The Islanders were trending toward missing the playoffs, which would have given us a pick in the top 15.

The team that was helped the most by the stoppage was LA. Buffalo was hurt the most since they were trending toward a top 5 pick, and aren't high enough to get the playoffs.

Yes, we got lucky to have it end on the day it did where we locked down the bottom 2 picks, and not end the day before. But if the season goes 82 games, with where teams were trending, we would have had those two picks.

 

[DaveMatthew]

If screwed is getting Raymond, Holtz and potentially another top 15 pick if the Isles lose their play-in series, I hope we get screwed more often.

Honestly the only situation in which we would have been screwed over is one in which our chances of winning a top 3 pick were lowered from what they were before the virus (eg. 31 teams included in the lottery or some other such nonsense).

We've actually made out like bandits. Play stopped right after we got picks 2+3 (getting us picks 5-6 at worst) and now the play-in series could get us another pick in the 8-15 range.

I don’t think we’re getting screwed.

But I do find it odd how, if the rumours are true, the league’s proposal is a positive for a very small number of teams.

I guess we’ll see what they announce, but I don’t understand why they didn’t just have a playoffs with the top 16 teams in points percentage, and do a normal lottery with the rest.

Why are some teams getting a shot at the lottery AND a shot at the playoffs.

 

[Masked]

I’ve already made up my mind on Raymond and Holtz as Senators. The league gonna make sure we screwed.

Clearly need Jacob Perreault for the middle name on that line.

 

[DJB]

LFG!!!!!

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

I don’t think we’re getting screwed.

But I do find it odd how, if the rumours are true, the league’s proposal is a positive for a very small number of teams.

I guess we’ll see what they announce, but I don’t understand why they didn’t just have a playoffs with the top 16 teams in points percentage, and do a normal lottery with the rest.

Why are some teams getting a shot at the lottery AND a shot at the playoffs.

Teams get a shot at the lottery and playoffs every season. Since the season didn't end with 82 games played I think this makes sense.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Teams get a shot at the lottery and playoffs every season. Since the season didn't end with 82 games played I think this makes sense.

Honestly it doesn't affect Ottawa, all that much. But I don't know how you justify it to Sabres or Devils fans, for example.

Montreal - 71 points in 71 games
Buffalo - 68 points in 69 games
New Jersey - 68 points in 69 games

One of those teams gets both a shot at the playoffs AND the lottery. The other two don't.

 

[armani]

He tweeted his top 10

Thanks bud. Zadina at 2 is wack as is Lundestrom at top 10, but I think he has Kotkaniemi right at 9. Montreal left too many good players behind to make this high risk move. McCagg must have cringed at least if he wasn't after the draft.

 

[armani]

LFG!!!!!

What a tease!

 

[DJB]

 

[Tuna99]

Honestly it doesn't affect Ottawa, all that much. But I don't know how you justify it to Sabres or Devils fans, for example.

Montreal - 71 points in 71 games
Buffalo - 68 points in 69 games
New Jersey - 68 points in 69 games

One of those teams gets both a shot at the playoffs AND the lottery. The other two don't.

I think it’s stupid, if you have a chance to play for the Cup - no lottery pick. And it’s not like the team are getting eliminated from the playoffs Per regular season rules if they lose the play-in as some analysts say - Price is healthy and plays out of his mind for a few weeks and suddenly it could be Montreal - Vancouver final, or they could be drafting 1-2 overall.

the teams that don’t get to compete deserve some limelight to satiate the local markets, do a top 7 lottery, pick the play-in teams at the same time but they are only within 7-15. Win win for everyone.

 

[armani]

Given the circumstances, I will still be happy with those odds in a top-15 draft. Remember when COVID-19 hit the fan we were uncertain if those odds will stick? Well that's the real good news.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

Sequence of desirable scenarios from my perspective.

1A. Normal lottery after play-in, teams can only move up 4-6 spots, 1 winner

1B. Bottom-7 teams lottery - 1 winner

3. Normal lottery after play-in teams can only move up 4-6 spots, 3 winners

4. Normal lottery after play-in - 1 winner

5. Bottom-7 teams lottery - 3 winners

6. Normal lottery after play-in - 3 winners

 

[DaveMatthew]

Given the circumstances, I will still be happy with those odds in a top-15 draft. Remember when COVID-19 hit the fan we were uncertain if those odds will stick? Well that's the real good news.

It's really not surprising.

The league gets to capture the eyeballs of having New York, Montreal and Chicago in the "play-in", but still gives those GMs the assurance that if they lose, they'll have a chance at a top pick.

If the "bubble" teams were Ottawa, Carolina and Winnipeg, I doubt it would have worked out this way.

 

[armani]

Honestly it doesn't affect Ottawa, all that much. But I don't know how you justify it to Sabres or Devils fans, for example.

Montreal - 71 points in 71 games
Buffalo - 68 points in 69 games
New Jersey - 68 points in 69 games

One of those teams gets both a shot at the playoffs AND the lottery. The other two don't.

Based on Brucie's tweet it appears that way. The second bolded part is very true and I wonder what the league decides on this (perhaps ensuring bottom 7 teams get to pick at worst in top 7 but it doesn't appear to be on the cards). Leaks are trickling in, shouldn't be long before we know how it all shapes up officially.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Well I guess we can still hope for one draw only...

 

[Bubba Pilks]

Given the circumstances, I will still be happy with those odds in a top-15 draft. Remember when COVID-19 hit the fan we were uncertain if those odds will stick? Well that's the real good news.

Ultimately you are 100% right and I have to keep reminding myself that. There was a time before the return to play when people were arguing for a Crosby type lottery. A normal 15 team lottery is obviously a much preferable outcome.

Worst case of 5/6
84.8% chance of two top 5s
25% chance at Lafreniere

 

[saskriders]

Honestly it doesn't affect Ottawa, all that much. But I don't know how you justify it to Sabres or Devils fans, for example.

Montreal - 71 points in 71 games
Buffalo - 68 points in 69 games
New Jersey - 68 points in 69 games

One of those teams gets both a shot at the playoffs AND the lottery. The other two don't.

It was obvious that teams that would have just missed out by however they picked the top 16 would have gotten screwed and that some sort of playoff expansion needed to be done. But Montreal in now way deserved to be in it (and to a lesser extent Chicago). They should have gone with 22 teams where 4 and 5 seeds play eachother after their first round bye.

 

[BondraTime]

Thanks bud. Zadina at 2 is wack as is Lundestrom at top 10, but I think he has Kotkaniemi right at 9. Montreal left too many good players behind to make this high risk move. McCagg must have cringed at least if he wasn't after the draft.

This was in early March, his list in June was much different.

 

[armani]

This was in early March, his list in June was much different.

Please share if you have it. Top-10 or 15 would do.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

I don't think anything could sum up being a fan of this team over the last few years than being teased about a lottery format that guarantees 3rd and 4th, only to fall 5th and 6th when the actual lottery happens.

 

[BondraTime]

Please share if you have it. Top-10 or 15 would do.

Don’t have it, was a paid subscription and I have no clue where mine went, but know Kotkaniemi was top 5

 

[armani]

Don’t have it, was a paid subscription and I have no clue where mine went, but know Kotkaniemi was top 5

To be honest, I mean it's one pro season, but Kotkaniemi doesn't look to be the 5th best pick from the lot either. McCagg had him right the first time.

 

[Hale The Villain]

Pretty sure Kotkaniemi was 3rd behind Dahlin and Svechnikov if memory serves

 

[DJB]

 

[armani]

Ultimately you are 100% right and I have to keep reminding myself that. There was a time before the return to play when people were arguing for a Crosby type lottery. A normal 15 team lottery is obviously a much preferable outcome.

Worst case of 5/6
84.8% chance of two top 5s
25% chance at Lafreniere

Best odds of any team!