Speculation: 2020-2021 General Lightning Discussion - Defending Champions Edition

[Byrddog]

I guess the people who were not so worried about goal scoring last night might have changed there view now. Theres not going to be a Killorn trade not unless JBB has lost his everloving mind.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Thinking about additions to take on 4 years of Tyler for Zetterbergs LTIR contract, and DET only has two D (Stetcher and DeKeyser) signed going into 21/22. I don't like the idea of losing Cernak, but that could make a very nice addition and solve at least half of a problem for them.

They have Seider and Hronek as RD who are better and younger. So Cernak is not really something Detroit would want and they wouldn't take him as the main piece, maybe as a secondary piece but it would need to be something better as the main which is hard for us to do.

 

[Lightning1995]

So the Lightning are dealing with major cap issues, uncertainty with Kuch and uncertainty with Stammer. Does JBB unload contracts not be cap compliant? Are we certain either superstar will play this year? If so, the cap issues remain yet perhaps neither will be available early. How do the Lightning handle potentially no Kuch, Stammer, TJ and Killorn for a while?

Man JBB is in a real tough spot.

 

[The Gongshow]

So the Lightning are dealing with major cap issues, uncertainty with Kuch and uncertainty with Stammer. Does JBB unload contracts not be cap compliant? Are we certain either superstar will play this year? If so, the cap issues remain yet perhaps neither will be available early. How do the Lightning handle potentially no Kuch, Stammer, TJ and Killorn for a while?

Man JBB is in a real tough spot.

Theres no indication Stamkos won't be healthy and ready for the season. Kucherov is up in the air, he may be fine now with the shot and need a few weeks or be out long term.

I hope we still unload Johnson. If we also get rid of Killorn we have 3 forward spots to fill, with one being filled by Stamkos on the Point line. Its not Kucherov but Stamkos on the first line is better than anything else

 

[Lightning1995]

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Ideally, we might only have to lose Johnson or Killorn if Kuch goes on LTIR. We can kick that can down the line to the trade deadline if we need to make space for Kuch to come back to the line up.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Pagnotta is f***ing idiot. I'd rather listen McJedi then listening to Pagnotta. He stuck his foot in his own mouth and tries to back track.

 

[The Macho King]

Pagnotta is f***ing idiot. I'd rather listen McJedi then listening to Pagnotta. He stuck his foot in his own mouth and tries to back track.

Only guy that I think has a real line into the org is Lebrun.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

I guess the people who were not so worried about goal scoring last night might have changed there view now. Theres not going to be a Killorn trade not unless JBB has lost his everloving mind.

I guess the people who were so upset that JBB hadn't traded away Johnson and Killorn two months ago are feeling a little silly now. No?

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Only guy that I think has a real line into the org is Lebrun.

Yeah, feels like he's been the only one that's come close since JBB took over.

 

[JTBF81]

I guess the people who were not so worried about goal scoring last night might have changed there view now. Theres not going to be a Killorn trade not unless JBB has lost his everloving mind.

No, not really. Even if Kucherov is sidelined for this regular season, and JBB still had a trade lined up to move Killorn, Tampa would still have the depth to easily make the playoffs and still possibly win the division. If Kuch has to go on ltir, then sure Killorn likely doesn't have to be traded, and Tampa can then likely keep everyone they need to, but they are a playoff team either way. Kuch could then return for the playoffs or just before a la Kane for Chicago in 2015 and Tampa gets a huge add for the Cup run. The only question is whether Kucherov needs to go on LTIR and how much does JBB value not accruing cap space during this shortened season. No reason for any doom and gloom narrative.

 

[Sky04]

I guess the people who were so upset that JBB hadn't traded away Johnson and Killorn two months ago are feeling a little silly now. No?

You do understand it's still a cap problem regardless of the injury or not right? Or do you hope for Kucherov to be out for the entire season so we can prolong this song and dance until next year with a top-3 forward out?

 

[BoltzManConstant]

You do understand it's still a cap problem regardless of the injury or not right? Or do you hope for Kucherov to be out for the entire season so we can prolong this song and dance until next year with a top-3 forward out?

Of course it's still a cap problem. You did read the post I responded to, right?

 

[OdinsFury]

You do understand it's still a cap problem regardless of the injury or not right? Or do you hope for Kucherov to be out for the entire season so we can prolong this song and dance until next year with a top-3 forward out?

While its a Cap problem, the trade deadline will also bring the opportunity to get the most return on Killorn and TJ. In fact, you may even be able to trade both without giving up any other assets as most teams will have additional Cap space by then and TJ and Killers contracts will have essentially one less year on them. So if Kuch will be out until the trade deadline then it makes sense to hold onto TJ/Killer until then and hope they produce. Conversely, if either gets hurt or are in effective, the sweetener needed to move both only gets higher in value!

 

[Sky04]

While its a Cap problem, the trade deadline will also bring the opportunity to get the most return on Killorn and TJ. In fact, you may even be able to trade both without giving up any other assets as most teams will have additional Cap space by then and TJ and Killers contracts will have essentially one less year on them. So if Kuch will be out until the trade deadline then it makes sense to hold onto TJ/Killer until then and hope they produce. Conversely, if either gets hurt or are in effective, the sweetener needed to move both only gets higher in value!

Right and what happens when the scenerio is that we sign Cernak and Cirelli, Kucherov comes back early and now nobody wants to take on Killorn/Johnson like they are now. Tampa is forced to trade someone without an NTC. Those players would be either Point, Cirelli, Cernak or Sergachev. Nice - we just signed our RFA's to sweet deals just to trade them off and still have to deal with Johnson next off-season, not a situation I'd want to gamble with.

Johnson's value has a huge probability of tanking even worse if we take him into the season, the 3rd line is set, and he has no chemistry with Cirelli, his only chance to shine will be if he wins out a spot next to Point.

The right move is to get cap complacent now and and we have capspace due to LTIR we add at the deadline.

 

[Lightning1995]

I don’t see Tampa heading into the season with a looming cap issue that still needs to be resolved when Kuck returns. Only way deals are not made before trading camp is if Kuch will be out for the season. Would be tough for players like TJ to focus knowing they are on the way out.

I imagine the Lightning could temporarily manage around the current 1.9 Million overage with taxi squad manipulation. But I’m not sure how the timing of LTIR and signing the RFAs would work. But none of that matters if Kuchs injury is not season ending.

 

[Byrddog]

No, not really. Even if Kucherov is sidelined for this regular season, and JBB still had a trade lined up to move Killorn, Tampa would still have the depth to easily make the playoffs and still possibly win the division. If Kuch has to go on ltir, then sure Killorn likely doesn't have to be traded, and Tampa can then likely keep everyone they need to, but they are a playoff team either way. Kuch could then return for the playoffs or just before a la Kane for Chicago in 2015 and Tampa gets a huge add for the Cup run. The only question is whether Kucherov needs to go on LTIR and how much does JBB value not accruing cap space during this shortened season. No reason for any doom and gloom narrative.

As Kuch goes so does this team. Without him in the line-up Point is a 20 point less player and most of those points goals. And yes the team still has enough fire power to make the playoffs without Kuch, they do not have enough firepower to win another cup without him. over the last three years Kuch has had 200 assists and yes Stammer will make up some of that but if you add Stammers three best years for assists the total is 50 less helpers than Kuch has had in the last three seasons.

This is a hellava way to get cap compliant and unless JBB is sure the recover is going to be the entire season at some point he will still need to move some cap out. The good news is that he can kick the can down the road a little and make the trade before the deadline. And how many of us are 100% sure Stammer is going to be able to play a whole season???? He sure had a hard enough time recovering from the hernia surgery and as recent as last week many were projecting him to be a LTIR candidate.

Kuch is my favorite player I admit but we are now going to see if Cirelli can make the jump and shoulder a larger load in scoring to hell with the Selke votes if he does not pot goals at a 30 goal full season pace then he is not the player many think he is. My view of Cirelli is he is a good two way guy but in a pinch can he play beyond his role????? I doubt it.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

Right and what happens when the scenerio is that we sign Cernak and Cirelli, Kucherov comes back early and now nobody wants to take on Killorn/Johnson like they are now. Tampa is forced to trade someone without an NTC. Those players would be either Point, Cirelli, Cernak or Sergachev. Nice - we just signed our RFA's to sweet deals just to trade them off and still have to deal with Johnson next off-season, not a situation I'd want to gamble with.

Johnson's value has a huge probability of tanking even worse if we take him into the season, the 3rd line is set, and he has no chemistry with Cirelli, his only chance to shine will be if he wins out a spot next to Point.

The right move is to get cap complacent now and and we have capspace due to LTIR we add at the deadline.

You don't seem to understand that JBB is the one with all the information. There's no "Kucherov comes back early" scenario. JBB will know the earliest Kucherov can come back, and will be able to engage in trade talks before any concern is "looming".

I'll say it here -- I desperately want Kuch back and healthy by Jan 13. Losing him to LTIR would suck big time, but it opens up other options. (Note also that all of the below applies equally to Stammer on LTIR, if that happens.)

It's silly to doom about "Johnson's value will be even worse". Could happen, but that's not a likely outcome. And there's a decent chance he gets a lot of minutes with Pointer to pump up his trade value.

If Kuch is out, depending on how long, there's a good chance there will be another injury somewhere resulting in a team that really wants Killorn (or even Johnson). If he's out to the trade deadline, that opens a strong likelihood there will be a team that wants a Cup-winning veteran forward for its final push.

The universe of landing spots opens up dramatically the longer Kuch is out, due to the way cap cost accumulates. A team with just $1.5m in free cap space from now to the trade deadline could pick Killorn up at the deadline, even though his contract is $4.5m.

I get that you're desperate to get these trades done (I believe you're the guy who wants us to trade away a first and a second and a prospect and Killorn and Johnson with nothing back ) but you're just gonna hafta cross your legs and hold it. The trades are gonna get made when it makes sense.

 

[Sky04]

You don't seem to understand that JBB is the one with all the information. There's no "Kucherov comes back early" scenario. JBB will know the earliest Kucherov can come back, and will be able to engage in trade talks before any concern is "looming".

I'll say it here -- I desperately want Kuch back and healthy by Jan 13. Losing him to LTIR would suck big time, but it opens up other options. (Note also that all of the below applies equally to Stammer on LTIR, if that happens.)

It's silly to doom about "Johnson's value will be even worse". Could happen, but that's not a likely outcome. And there's a decent chance he gets a lot of minutes with Pointer to pump up his trade value.

If Kuch is out, depending on how long, there's a good chance there will be another injury somewhere resulting in a team that really wants Killorn (or even Johnson). If he's out to the trade deadline, that opens a strong likelihood there will be a team that wants a Cup-winning veteran forward for its final push.

The universe of landing spots opens up dramatically the longer Kuch is out, due to the way cap cost accumulates. A team with just $1.5m in free cap space from now to the trade deadline could pick Killorn up at the deadline, even though his contract is $4.5m.

I get that you're desperate to get these trades done (I believe you're the guy who wants us to trade away a first and a second and a prospect and Killorn and Johnson with nothing back ) but you're just gonna hafta cross your legs and hold it. The trades are gonna get made when it makes sense.

And I believe you're the one who said trading Cirelli and Killorn would solve our cap issues (it doesn't). JBB is the one with all the information - yet everyone is hoping on the LTIR train without knowing the timeline of Kucherov's injury. Makes no sense, the point still stands, the resolving the cap issue sooner is better than later.

 

[Sky04]

As Kuch goes so does this team. Without him in the line-up Point is a 20 point less player and most of those points goals. And yes the team still has enough fire power to make the playoffs without Kuch, they do not have enough firepower to win another cup without him. over the last three years Kuch has had 200 assists and yes Stammer will make up some of that but if you add Stammers three best years for assists the total is 50 less helpers than Kuch has had in the last three seasons.

This is a hellava way to get cap compliant and unless JBB is sure the recover is going to be the entire season at some point he will still need to move some cap out. The good news is that he can kick the can down the road a little and make the trade before the deadline. And how many of us are 100% sure Stammer is going to be able to play a whole season???? He sure had a hard enough time recovering from the hernia surgery and as recent as last week many were projecting him to be a LTIR candidate.

Kuch is my favorite player I admit but we are now going to see if Cirelli can make the jump and shoulder a larger load in scoring to hell with the Selke votes if he does not pot goals at a 30 goal full season pace then he is not the player many think he is. My view of Cirelli is he is a good two way guy but in a pinch can he play beyond his role????? I doubt it.

Oh yeah, you're totally right Point would've scored 40 points last season without Kucherov

 

[JTBF81]

As Kuch goes so does this team. Without him in the line-up Point is a 20 point less player and most of those points goals. And yes the team still has enough fire power to make the playoffs without Kuch, they do not have enough firepower to win another cup without him. over the last three years Kuch has had 200 assists and yes Stammer will make up some of that but if you add Stammers three best years for assists the total is 50 less helpers than Kuch has had in the last three seasons.

This is a hellava way to get cap compliant and unless JBB is sure the recover is going to be the entire season at some point he will still need to move some cap out. The good news is that he can kick the can down the road a little and make the trade before the deadline. And how many of us are 100% sure Stammer is going to be able to play a whole season???? He sure had a hard enough time recovering from the hernia surgery and as recent as last week many were projecting him to be a LTIR candidate.

Kuch is my favorite player I admit but we are now going to see if Cirelli can make the jump and shoulder a larger load in scoring to hell with the Selke votes if he does not pot goals at a 30 goal full season pace then he is not the player many think he is. My view of Cirelli is he is a good two way guy but in a pinch can he play beyond his role????? I doubt it.

Lol, Point a 20 point less player, sure..... If Kucherov does have an injury similar to Point's and requires the same surgery, then he'll miss the regular season but have a decent chance of being ready for the playoffs. JBB then moves one of Killorn/Johnson(hopefully Johnson but probably Killorn), and Tampa is set using ltir.

Obviously using ltir isn't the preferred option, but after trading let's say Killorn, Brisebois will have ~2.55 to work with. He signs Cernak using most of that and then when Kucherov goes on ltir Tampa will have close to 9.5 to sign Cirelli, Volkov, bring ABB and Foote up and hopefully re-sign Rutta.
Tampa can then run something like:
Palat-Point-Stamkos
Volkov/ABB-Cirelli-Johnson/Killorn
Goodrow-Gourde-Coleman
Stephens-Paquette-Maroon
Volkov/ABB/Joseph as the 13th/14th
There are several other enticing line combos as well, but the point is the team will be fine offensively. Maybe they won't be top 2 or 3 in goals scored without Kucherov, but I'd wager they'll still be top 5, and with a top 5 defense and the #1 or #2 goaltender. And then Kucherov would be back for the playoffs in that scenario.

Stamkos by all reports is doing well and should be ready, at the latest, by the start of the regular season if not by training camp. Everyone already knows about your doom and gloom narrative re: everything Lightning, so your doubting that Cirelli can take another step isn't surprising. This team will be just fine and if they have the drive and hunger for another title, they could definitely repeat. It certainly won't be easy but all the tools are there.

 

[KaraLupin]

Palat / Point /Stamkos
Killorn / Gourde / Coleman

Trade Killorn at deadline assuming Kuch is back or close to.

Give up on TJ, nothing you can do about him at this point. No value.

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[Major4Boarding]

Cernak signed (3yrs - $2.95M) as is Rutta (2 yrs - $1.3M).

 

[BowDownToVasilevskiy]

Cernak signed as is Rutta. Details forthcoming

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