Prospect Info: 2019 - 2020 Top 20 Blues Prospect List - #9

[Bluesnatic27]

Top 20 Blues Prospect List:
1) Jordan Kyrou - 91.9%
2) Dominik Bokk - 84.2%
3) Klim Kostin - 43.4%
4) Ville Husso - 41.3%
5) Mitch Reinke - 36.5%
6) Niko Mikkola - 46.1%*
7) Scott Perunovich - 42.1%*
8) Nikita Alexandrov - 48.7%

Alexandrov takes the number 8 spot with a commanding finish, almost taking half the votes. I like his potential to becomes an NHL player, but I wonder if he has more to give? This season may open our eyes one way or another.

As for the #9 spot, I'm torn between Fitzpatrick and Toropchenko. Both aren't guaranteed NHL players, but Toropchenko has the tools to become an NHL bottom-6er while Fitzpatrick has some high level goaltending abilities. One has a decent floor with no ceiling while the other has a decent ceiling with a hole where the floor should be. I'm going with Fitz because of his home-run potential. I don't think he can ever make it as a back-up because his mental game will ultimately decide his fate. If he develops a strong mental game, he could become a star goalie with his overall tool-set. But if he doesn't, he will toil away in the lower professional leagues for the rest of his days. Should be a fun vote regardless.

Side note: Balmas, and any other prospect that might be signed by the Blues in the future, will be added when they have an official contract with the Blues organization. They need to be considered Blues property for them to be considered Blues prospects. I know there might be some back-and-forth on who to include the more the poll goes on, so don't expect those rules to be concrete. However there needs to be some guideline on who to include, so I think it best to have it this way for the time being. This also means that if there is a player that I'm neglecting to include that is a Blues prospect, please let me know so I may add him in the future.

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[Beauterham]

Thought about going with Poganski, because he had a really good season in San Antonio. Decided to go with Ellis though, as he probably is the player left with the highest upside.

 

[kimzey59]

I'm going Torpedo here. I think he has the work ethic and playing style to be a very good bottom 6 forward, and that work ethic might help him surpass expectations the same way Sunny did. If things go perfectly for him he could turn into a Micheal Ferland type PF.

I give him the nod over Fitz simply because goalies are too hard to predict.

 

[STL fan in MN]

It seems like we’re in the mushy middle now where there’s not going to be much consensus going forward.

I have a pretty big group starting at 9 that I value fairly similarly but I’m going to go with Ellis. Solid fundamentals, good stats, invited to Canada’s summer WJC camp. It’s really hard to project goalies but out of this group, I value him the most.

After that I have Foley and Tucker. Foley has middle-6 potential if he can get over the concussion issues. I’m surprised Tucker isn’t getting more consideration. I had him ranked pretty low a year ago mostly due his poor skating but he’s improved it (it’s still below average though so it’s still the main thing he needs to work on IMO) but I was surprised at his offensive vision this past season. His positioning is solid so if he can get up to average skating ability, he may be something as his D reads are good and he brings a lot of physicality and tenacity/effort as well.

 

[Hrkac Circus]

Best goaltending prospect between Ellis, Fitzpatrick and Hofer is an interesting debate. I would assume Fitzpatrick would get the nod since he's 21 and Hofer and Ellis are 18. Hofer and Ellis both looked solid at prospect camp this year for what it's worth.

 

[Novacain]

I am a big advocate for Torpedo, as I just think his style of game and mix of speed and power will play better in pro hockey then most players adjusting. I also like to think he really was starting to figure out his offensive game in the CHL playoffs as well. But really he main reason I love Torp is that he just plays like a guy who is gonna be a Sammy Blais style forward going forward. Big but not slow and never takes a shift off. Those guys tend to become NHLers.

After Torpedo it goes into wild picks on goalies and gets really iffy.

 

[Blueston]

Laferriere. But several others I coulda gone with- Toro, Ellis, Hofer, even Fitz or Tucker.

 

[Frenzy31]

Laferriere. But several others I coulda gone with- Toro, Ellis, Hofer, even Fitz or Tucker.

Diddo. I went with Laferriere. Ellis, Tucker both gets nods along with Poganski.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

T0o many people acting like Foley’s career is over.

 

[Beauterham]

T0o many people acting like Foley’s career is over.

I don't see anyone doing that? People are worried about his health, which -I guess- is understandable because there hasn't been any update on him since Februari. I really hope he's okay and we get to see him at this years trainingcamp. We can really use a guy with his skill and character.

 

[STL fan in MN]

Help sell me on Toropchenko as I’m just not seeing it with him.

Him “figuring out the offensive game in the playoffs” still left him as the 6th highest scorer on his team, as a 19 yr old in a league primarily made up of 16-19 yr olds, after being the 7th highest scorer for Guelph in the regular season. Even a guy like Jay McClement was above a pt/game in the CHL as a 19 yr old.

But he won’t be counted on to score, right? So that doesn’t matter? Ok, but to make it as a bottom 6 NHLer, he better be pretty good at defense and/or good at PK to add some value then...and right now, he doesn’t IMO.

He brings some tantalizing positives - size, a willingness to crash the net, good skating ability and good effort/tenacity...but he just seems like the type of player that would look good via the eye test in a scrimmage but not actually bring much value at the pro level unless he really improves at least one of his 2 fatal flaws.

I hope I end up wrong with him but that’s how I see it as of now.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Toropchenko, followed by Foley. A healthy Foley would be 5th on my list.

 

[Brian39]

Help sell me on Toropchenko as I’m just not seeing it with him.

Him “figuring out the offensive game in the playoffs” still left him as the 6th highest scorer on his team, as a 19 yr old in a league primarily made up of 16-19 yr olds, after being the 7th highest scorer for Guelph in the regular season. Even a guy like Jay McClement was above a pt/game in the CHL as a 19 yr old.

But he won’t be counted on to score, right? So that doesn’t matter? Ok, but to make it as a bottom 6 NHLer, he better be pretty good at defense and/or good at PK to add some value then...and right now, he doesn’t IMO.

He brings some tantalizing positives - size, a willingness to crash the net, good skating ability and good effort/tenacity...but he just seems like the type of player that would look good via the eye test in a scrimmage but not actually bring much value at the pro level unless he really improves at least one of his 2 fatal flaws.

I hope I end up wrong with him but that’s how I see it as of now.

I don't disagree with any of this and I also didn't vote for Toropchenko.

With that said, we are now talking about our 9th best prospect in a pool that everyone agrees is shallower than most NHL prospect pools. We've kind of hit that point where everyone left has some pretty major flaws and size (plus a willingness to use it) is an "uncoachable" thing that can give a prospect an edge. You always want to believe that you can coach defense/PK and generally those are more coachable things than most hockey skills. I have more confidence that Toropchenko can learn PK and NHL level defense to go along with his existing skill set than I do that any of the remaining forward prospects can overcome their flaws. But that is why I voted for Fitz. I'm not wild about any of the skaters we have left.

 

[tfriede2]

Help sell me on Toropchenko as I’m just not seeing it with him.

Him “figuring out the offensive game in the playoffs” still left him as the 6th highest scorer on his team, as a 19 yr old in a league primarily made up of 16-19 yr olds, after being the 7th highest scorer for Guelph in the regular season. Even a guy like Jay McClement was above a pt/game in the CHL as a 19 yr old.

But he won’t be counted on to score, right? So that doesn’t matter? Ok, but to make it as a bottom 6 NHLer, he better be pretty good at defense and/or good at PK to add some value then...and right now, he doesn’t IMO.

He brings some tantalizing positives - size, a willingness to crash the net, good skating ability and good effort/tenacity...but he just seems like the type of player that would look good via the eye test in a scrimmage but not actually bring much value at the pro level unless he really improves at least one of his 2 fatal flaws.

I hope I end up wrong with him but that’s how I see it as of now.

Yep, right now he’s like a faster Jaskin with much less offensive skill - let that sink in.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I don't disagree with any of this and I also didn't vote for Toropchenko.

With that said, we are now talking about our 9th best prospect in a pool that everyone agrees is shallower than most NHL prospect pools. We've kind of hit that point where everyone left has some pretty major flaws and size (plus a willingness to use it) is an "uncoachable" thing that can give a prospect an edge. You always want to believe that you can coach defense/PK and generally those are more coachable things than most hockey skills. I have more confidence that Toropchenko can learn PK and NHL level defense to go along with his existing skill set than I do that any of the remaining forward prospects can overcome their flaws. But that is why I voted for Fitz. I'm not wild about any of the skaters we have left.

This is fair. I value some of the other guys, and their combo of strengths/weaknesses, more than Toropchenko but yes, plenty of question marks in this range.

 

[Blues0307]

I was going to say pretty much everything IA already said. I voted for Ellis. I think he has the highest upside of the remaining group. Looking forward to hearing about his progress next year. He seems really smooth.

I'm not sold on Toropchenko either. It was fun to watch his playoff highlights, but the kid was well below a point per game playing in the OHL against kids that were younger than him. That doesn't scream NHL'er to me.

I, too, am surprised that Tucker hasn't gotten more consideration. For a defenseman drafted in the 7th round, he put up really good offense last year. I wish there was footage on him as I know very little about him. Maybe that's why he's not being talked about much, I dunno.

 

[ChicagoBlues]

This is my last vote for this off-season’s prospect polls.

 

[Ranksu]

This is my last vote for this off-season’s prospect polls.

 

[Ranksu]

I went Walman.

 

[Novacain]

I went Walman.

Why in God’s name would you do that?

 

[Ranksu]

Why in God’s name would you do that?

I believe he has potential to be in NHL level powerplay specialist and sheltered 3rd pair dmen.

 

[Novacain]

I believe he has potential to be in NHL level powerplay specialist and sheltered 3rd pair dmen.

He couldn’t be an AHL Level powerplayb specialist or 3rd pairing defensemen last year, and will turn 24 during this season.

 

[Coach Nate]

I believe he has potential to be in NHL level powerplay specialist and sheltered 3rd pair dmen.

Sheltered to the point of changing lines whenever the opposition crosses center ice with the puck.

 

[STL fan in MN]

2-3 years ago I’d go back and forth between Dunn and Walman on which I considered to be our best prospect so clearly I used to think very highly of Walman. Oops.

Walman was a beast in college. I couldn’t ever find good TOI stats for the NCAA but he seemed to play at least half of each game and played in all situations. Would normally play the left side but would be double shifted a lot and then be sent out there for an extra shift on the right side as well. He played this aggressive style that worked well for him.

But it’s sure not working in the AHL. From what I’ve seen, his D, positioning and reads are bad and his offense has evaporated too. He seems tentative and will then get aggressive but instead of it working like it did in college, he’s getting consistently burned.

I’ve got him ranked as our 18th best prospect now. Unless he makes huge strides this season, he’s in the bust category unfortunately IMO. This is the last year of his ELC so he’s going to have to give the Blues a reason to want to re-sign him.

 

[MortiestOfMortys]

I think there are a lot of players to be excited about in this range. Are any of them going to turn out to be stars? The goalies might, but that’s about it. But I count at least 10 players “on the board” still that I think have legit NHL upside.

And with where we’re at as an organization right now, that’s great.

For forwards, we have a top 6 that is in the early years of their veteran status, and there aren’t going to be more than 1-2 spots for the taking there for many years. What we need is a strong stable of bottom-6 players who can come in, play reliable two-way games, and contribute to the scoreboard in depth roles on the cheap. We absolutely have that, and I feel good about the upside in that pipeline. If we can continue to bring through guys like Sundqvist, Barbashev, and Blais, we’ll be able to continue supporting the top 6 without wasting a ton of cap space. As we saw these last playoffs, that depth is crucial, and the consistency throughout the lineup sets the tone for our aggressive play. I see guys like Poganski, Foley, Toropchenko, Joshua, and Stevens fitting in that category. Washkurak also to an extent, but I want to see more of him before throwing my hat over the wall there. Then you have the Kyrou, Bokk, and Alexandrov group that could (and should) be pushing for that top-6 time and getting paid big contracts in the future.

On D, we have two Norris-caliber dmen on the right side, and Dunn on the left. I don’t love the depth we have in the system, and wish we would have done more to fill that out this draft. But there’s a lot of depth and variety to like in Perunovich, Mikkola, Reinke, and Tucker. It remains to be seen if they can fit our model of an effective defenseman, but the skills are there. Tucker especially is a dark horse I think will continue to rise up these lists; if anyone fits our defensive model to a T in this group, it’s him.

It sounds weird to say, but I think goaltending may be our strongest area right now. Hofer and Ellis are really going to surprise a lot of people. Husso needs a strong bounce back season, but I still believe he has #1A potential. Fitzpatrick is phenomenal in spurts, and seems to rise to the occasion when he’s needed most. We’ll see if he can find the consistency. It’ll be years before we see any of these guys in full duty wearing the Blue Note, but after losing out on Opilka, I feel good about our depth and upside here. Zherenko is of course a complete unknown. The very very small sample size of video I’ve seen of him wasn’t flattering, and I was curious to see if he got drafted into the CHL this season but that didn’t materialize. He’ll be behind some extremely, extremely talented goaltenders in the Russian national depth chart, so if he can play his way into the conversation for a WJC invite, it will be a good sign. What a story that would be though if he turned out to be the best of the bunch.

So overall, I’m not concerned about our depth today. We have good, not great depth in the areas we need. We own all three of our next first round picks still, so we’ll have a chance here to re-stock the cupboards before long. For a team that seems to have answered it’s coaching and goaltending questions at the pro level, it’s a good spot to be in. I’d take this over a really good prospect pool but no Cup any day.