Prospect Info: 2018 NHL Entry Draft Discussion: Get your draft boards ready - One week left!

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by Silver91, Jun 26, 2017.

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Who is BPA available at 24?

  1. Benoit-Oliver Groulx - C

  2. Jacob Olofsson - C

  3. Dominik Bokk - C

  4. Ryan Merkley - RD

  5. Rasmus Sandin - LD

  6. Jett Woo -RD

  7. Miller LD/Samuellsson LD/Thomas LW (3/8 appearances)

Results are only viewable after voting.
  1. cookie

    cookie Fresh From The Oven

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    At the end of the day, the draft is full of misses more than it is of hits. Even a '14 pick like Valiev eventually did make it to the NHL with the Habs and he's 60th overall from that class in games played which means that he was picked around where he should have been... Roughly speaking anyways. If the numbers suggest that we can expect slightly more NHL talents by going the draft+1,2 route, that won't become apparent immediately, and with the ways numbers work, it may never actually take place. But there's enough numbers to put solace in our guys' thinking. A 1% edge is still worth it.


    Also any idea on Brinson Pasichnuk? He, Coghlan and Kovacevik were overage guys I liked last draft..
     
  2. WILDLIFEGUY

    WILDLIFEGUY Registered User

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    I think your opinions here are largely unfounded... here is a great article at MLHS showing that overage draft picks after round 2 have a higher percent chance of maing the NHL...

    What the Numbers Say: Overage Players vs. First Time Eligibles | Maple Leafs Hotstove
     
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  3. 4thline

    4thline Registered User

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    For OA's I want Sharangovitch, and could see him going as high as the 2nd. Einar Emanuelsson, Marcus Bjork, and Pavel Vorobey are other interesting ones.

    I really wish we had picked Kahun in 16 and Sharangovitch last year when I wanted them
     
  4. Morgs

    Morgs #16 #29 #34 #44

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    I love Denisenko, but someone tell me why he's ranked higher than Kravtsov.

    He has the highest PPG of any U19 that has played more than 5 games in the VHL. He has the second (Tolvanen) highest PPG of any U19 that has played in the KHL.

    Here are the guys that have scored more than 5P in their first draft eligible season in the KHL since the 2009-10 season:

    Vladimir Tarasenko (late birthday like Kravtsov):
    Season: 42GP - 13G - 11A - 24P
    Playoffs: 3GP - 0G - 0A - 0P

    Evgeny Kuznetsov:
    Season: 35GP - 2G - 6A - 8P
    Playoffs: 4GP - 1G - 0A - 1P

    Artemi Panarin (late birthday):
    Season: 20GP - 1G - 8A - 9P
    No Playoffs

    Anton Slepyshev:
    Season: 39GP - 4G - 3A - 7P
    No Playoffs

    Valeri Nichushkin:
    Season: 18GP - 4G - 2A - 6P
    Playoffs: 25GP - 6G - 3A - 9P

    Marko Dano:
    Season: 37GP - 3G - 4A - 7P
    Playoffs: 4GP - 0G - 0A - 0P

    Kirill Kaprizov:
    Season: 31GP - 4G - 4A -8P
    No Playoffs

    Vitali Kravtsov:
    Season: 35GP - 4G - 3A - 7P
    Playoffs: 4GP - 3G - 0A - 3P

    That's it. Yes, no Kucherov, Kostin, Gurianov, Rubtsov, Buchnevich or Denisenko.

    This guy might not be Tarasenko or Panarin, but he compares point-wise very nicely with guys like Kuzy, Kaprizov, Dano, and Slepyshev.

    I take him with out 1st. I don't care if he's a winger.



     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
  5. emilepep

    emilepep Registered User

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    The more research I do, the more I like Nils Lundkvist at our late first pick. Kid looks like he's going to be a good one!
     
  6. stickty111

    stickty111 Registered User

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    Lilly had none of the issues Merkley has right now. Unlike Merkley, Lilly was always a good kid with excellent character.
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
  7. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    And I have looked into the validity of those numbers. So it does only account for CHL players and the change in CBA, because then there would be a huge skew due to the European drafting rules. However, it is still as much as 20 years ago. Draft philosophies have changed a lot since then. I get they want a good sample size, but things change a lot.

    I also looked at the quality of each type of guy. Obviously OA players could be safer bets to turn out since you know more of how they have developed, but if all of the OA guys drafted become marginal 4th liners or bottom pairing guys, should that be really considered a success? I mean why waste a DP on them when the Leafs could easily find a handful of them as FA's as a much safer bet and possibly even more upside than them (Borgman, Rosen, Soshnikov, etc.)? So I looked at some of the guys 2005-2008 for each quality of player after the 3rd round (so it is fair for the OA's), and found that a lot of the guys were borderline depth guys who barely reached the 200 game NHL threshold to be counted as "successful" and that there were few guys who actually became anything really successful... Obviously compared to the first-year eligible guys. I do know it's already an uphill battle after the top 60.

    Also, you saw the 3rd round was a huge skew for everything because that is where you saw a lot of the guys who took huge leaps forward and just stood out from their peers by a lot. So that is where you may see guys like Durzi or Sharagovich go. Then you saw the 6th/7th go up again because that's a big crap shoot so there is really no problem with taking OA's there as long as you are selective about it (i.e. guys who are actually worth a draft pick, which is really the same criteria as non-overage guys), and taking someone with a bit more certainty may actually work out better for you.

    So I guess my philosophy would be:
    -Avoid top 60 picks unless they are exceptional (very rare; possibly only a small handful every few years. Not really sure there are any like that in this draft), and that article seems to back that fact since it is such a huge skew in the favour of first time guys.
    -3rd are for the best of the best minus the exceptional guys, and even then there would only be maybe a couple every year like that. Examples may be Sean Durzi and Sharangovich. It may also be for guys who were good in lower leagues in their first year but were able to showcase themselves on a higher level for the first time and performed well.
    -4th/5th generally have been more favourable for first year eligible guys, but really those rounds are for picking up any run offs from the 3rd round. So if a 3rd round quality OA drops to the 4th or 5th round, those are the types of guys you look at. There may also be some guys who are tweeners between 3rd round and late round, possibly out of Europe (i.e. Vlad Kara). Otherwise, just wait until the later rounds IMO. The 4th and 5th round is where you usually find guys with good boom-bust guys with great potential so personally I'd prefer to focus on them than an OA, unless of course that OA shows those characteristics.
    -6th/7th rounds seem to be more than fine assuming the guy does actually look good enough for a DP, which is a criteria for any prospect regardless of eligibility I would say. Nyman, Yeryomenko, etc.

    So it's not really changing my opinion. Perhaps saying "avoid it altogether" would be unfair, but being selective and hesitant unless they are really special... That's pretty much what that has proven and what I was saying.
     
  8. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    I wouldn't have taken Kovacevic with a 3rd round pick probably 19 points in 36 games as a rookie defenseman with size is pretty promising, and has the RH shot, but it's not super unique in the NCAA so they had to see something pretty nice. Especially since he was a D+2. Pasichnuk is nothing special. Not worth a DP since you can find better as FA's every year. Points can sometimes be misleading in the NCAA, so unless they show or have something extra like Kovacevic obviously did, then they are in tough. Coghlan more or less as well. Was worth a late round pick IMO and got an ELC, but you see guys like him put up 50+ points in their D+1 years if given the right opportunity. That's why someone like Hollowell may go undrafted.
     
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  9. cookie

    cookie Fresh From The Oven

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    With Pasichnuk the thinking was that his draft year where he went undrafted he put up numbers like Makar plus a load of PIMs. If he was in the box, that means that he isn't afraid to be physical plus his deployment on the ice would be that much more erratic. Basically puts up numbers like a top 10 defenseman and is a long term project considering he's taking the ncaa route... That's why I was a little interested in finding out more about him wrt tools and maturity.

    Kovacevic plays a position with high demand (low numbers of RHDs) and his immediate impact on his team would imply that he can move upwards the prospect charts. That's something to look for in lower round picks.

    Coghlan was actually signed by Vegas recently too...
     
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2018
  10. 4thline

    4thline Registered User

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    @SeaOfBlue I think that's a way to macro look at a micro issue. Drafting OA's comes down to two main questions.

    A. In general is their performance reflective of what you'd hope a 1st time eligible would achieve in that timespan
    B. Is there a 1st time eligible on the board that you'd bet on out performing them.

    Korshkov is a perfect example of both, Brooks as well. I think with a strong senior WC a guy like Sharangovitch could push his way into the early 2nd
     
  11. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    He plays all situations, but in general, I find people tend to over value a players floor. Who would have thought that Yakupov would be a non-qualified player 5 years after being drafted or that Griffin Reinhart would be waiver fodder. A bunch of highly touted defenceman don't live up to expectations. Outside of elite talent at the very top of the draft, no player is really a lock to be a consistent NHLer.
     
  12. 3headeddragon

    3headeddragon Registered User

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    Thanks for the response. I would take a chance on him there is something in the way he plays I really like. I don’t know what kind of off ice regime he has, ie Brown, to help him progress. I could see him break out next year.
     
  13. Dude Wheres Makar

    Dude Wheres Makar Registered User

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    A guy I think has mid round potential to keep an eye on is Declan Chrisholm. 6'1 and should be available anywhere from round 4-5
     
  14. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    Denisenko is simply the more dynamic talent better skater and passer, which probably gives him higher upside. Kravtsov also has almost no international experience, so he's rather new on the scene. I'd take Denisenko over Kravtsov primarily based on tools, not numbers, but I'd be fine with taking Kravtsov.
     
  15. Morgs

    Morgs #16 #29 #34 #44

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    His skating, passing, vision looks Mat Barzal-like, so I'm definitely on board with Denisenko.

    I just personally value production very highly, especially when the guy is heavily involved in their team's goals (which Kravtsov is as an 18-yo in the K).
     
  16. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    Its hard to measure though, especially the KHL. Denisenko plays for a high-end club, which makes it near impossible to play in the KHL, while Kravtsov due to playing for a bottom feeder is more likely to get ice-time. Also, an early birthday/late birthday situation. I hope we are heavily scouting both, which I assume we are due to having 2 full time Russian scouts, and I think 5 or 6 full-time guys in Europe, along with key guys like Hunter going over every so often.
     
  17. Morgs

    Morgs #16 #29 #34 #44

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    Agreed. Boy would I like to walk out of the draft with both of them.
     
  18. TheMadHatTrick

    TheMadHatTrick Registered User

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    FWIW Caser, the poster from Russia on the main board, has Kravtsov over Denisenko slightly. As far as posters go he tends to be the guy in the know on Russian prospects.
     
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  19. WTFMAN99

    WTFMAN99 Registered User

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    What makes him stand out to you?
     
  20. WILDLIFEGUY

    WILDLIFEGUY Registered User

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    Two mock drafts

    24: RW Vitali Kravstov // C Akil Thomas
    52: RD Sean Durzi [OA] // LD Adam Ginning
    83: C David Gustafsson // G Jacob Ingham
    117: C Liam Foudy // C Aidan Dudas
    148: G Akira Schmid // RD Vladislav Yeryomenko [OA]
    179: LD Jacob Semik // LW Samuel Bucek [OA]
    210: C/RW Austin Wong // C/RW Austin Wong ;)
     
  21. TheMadHatTrick

    TheMadHatTrick Registered User

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    The bolded are on my list, though not necessarily at those specific picks.
     
  22. DraftGuru

    DraftGuru Registered User

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    I like that Wong pick late. That kid is a beast. Going to Harvard I believe.
     
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  23. TheMadHatTrick

    TheMadHatTrick Registered User

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    Cool. I'll check him out.
     
  24. Scott Malkinson

    Scott Malkinson Registered User

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    Ruslan Iskhakov is sick, guys.

    He's 5'7 but he's an excellent skater with tremendous hands.

    He's like Gaudreau.
     
  25. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    If I had to choose between the two guys at each of those spots:
    Thomas
    Ginning
    Gustafsson
    Foudy
    Schmid
    Semik
    Wong (not that I have a choice)

    I like Kravstov, but not that high. He's a winger too. Thomas has big time skill and could be a steal in the 20's. I think there could be better options than Ginning, but he's not bad. Not a fan of Durzi with a 2nd round pick. David Gustafsson has really nice stats for a 3rd rounder. Ingham should not go anywhere near that high. His potential would be the only thing that gets him drafted this year, because his play has been a major weak spot for Mississauga. Foudy>Dudas, but neither are terrible options with a 4th rounder. I like Schmid more than most first-year eligible guys, but not sure he'd go all that high. The nice thing is the Leafs can stash him for as long as they want. Seems like he could go undrafted or could go pretty high. Semik and Wong are solid picks for the 7th round. Yeryomenko would be fine that as well, as would Nyman.
     

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