Prospect Info: 2017 NHL Draft / Pick #7 - Lias Andersson (C)

[darko]

Marcus Johansson (now on the Devils) put up 56 points last year,
He had 20 points in 42 games in the SHL at the same age, to the month, as Lias. Lias is on pace to blow that away.

Kempe, on LA, has 16 in 26 this year.
He had 11 points in 45 games at age 18 and 17 points in 50 games at age 19 in the SHL.

Alexander Wennberg, who had 59 points last year, and 40 in 69 the year before that - put up a whopping 21 points in 50 games in the SHL in his age 19 season.

Viktor Arvidson (who is only 5'9 and 185 soaking wet) and William Nylander are actually outliers in their performances, which were only 40 points in 50 games for Arvidson and 20 points in 21 games for Nylander - Arvidson in his 20/21 year old season in the SHL and Nylander in his 18/19 year old season.

Lias is at 13 in 19 right now after a rough start coming off the most hectic traveling (and likely mostly emotional/mind numbing) experience of his life.

Temper yourselves people.

Sadly people fail to realize how good SHL is and are expecting PPG seasons.

 

[Edge]

I think there's this narrative that the Rangers went off the board, which isn't entirely true.

Andersson was the number 3 ranked European Skater, so it's not like he wasn't on any radars.

Did they take him higher than he was projected to go? Yes.

But it's not like they took a guy slated for one of the final picks of the first round and gabbed him at number 7.

More importantly the "reach" we made on Andersson isn't really all that different than the "reaches" we made on forwards like Kreider or Miller, our two other more recent first rounds pick who are forwards. Neither of those guys were consensus 15th or 19th overall picks either and were generally ranked a little lower than the position at which we drafted them.

If there's one thing the Rangers have shown over the last 12 or so years, it's that they're going to adhere to a list that varies greatly from more mainstream lists. And significantly more often than not, they've done a good job with their first round picks.

With regards to Vilardi, he's a very good prospect. There's no denying that. The debate is whether the total package is significantly better than Andersson. IMO, Vilardi and Andersson are right there in that second cluster of prospects in 2017. Some guys did things better than them, they did things better than other guys.

What I disagree with, and continue to disagree with, is that there was some obvious choice sitting out there that belonged in the first grouping of prospects. For me, that group closed with Glass at number 6. Personally, I wanted Suzuki, but it wasn't on the same level as seeing a Getzlaf or a Tarasenko sitting out there waiting to be picked. Time will tell if the result is the same, but within the context of when the pick was made, I don't have any immediate regrets.

With regards to Vilardi, it's also worth pointing out that he wasn't immediately snapped up right after we picked. It's also worth pointing out that no one has seen him play this season due to injury.

Clearly, his status as a prospect, or even that of Suzuki's, didn't exactly come about by a clear cut consensus - they fell to 11th and 13th respectively.

 

[silverfish]

Have a few issues with your post, @Edge

1. Comparisons to Miller and Kreider are... soft. There's a difference between "reaching" or "going safe" at 7OA versus 15OA and 19OA. This is why the established vernacular "first-round" pick is misleading. The first-round is really four different rounds for the most part. 1OA, 2-3, 4-10, everyone else. Generally, binning is bad. Even the "four rounds" thing I just did is bad. Each pick can be classified as it's own value, but the drop-off isn't consistent. The drop from 7 to 15 or 7 to 19 is huge.

2. Why are you ignoring Mittlestadt and Tippet? Two other guys who could've easily been picked at 7 and only focusing on Vilardi?

3. He was the third-ranked Euro skater, but how does that compare to where he was in the grand scheme of things? McKenzie has him at #13 in his aggregated list. Does that matter? I'm not sure. I think Klim Kostin was the #1 ranked Euro skater, right? And he went 31st.

4. It's' not that there was an "obvious, consensus" choice sitting on the board at #7. There very rarely ever is at that point in the draft. But, that doesn't take away from the fact that there were potentially better picks on the board available than LA was.

For all intents and purposes, it seems like the Rangers drafted safe instead of for boom. The chance that LA will be an NHL player, is probably pretty high. At the very least, he'll establish himself as a bottom-6 player. But, does he have that boom potential to ever solidify himself as a first-line center? I have my personal doubts about that.

Meanwhile, you have guys like Mittlestadt, and Tippet, who, IMO, do have that boom potential. But, do they have the same floor that Andersson does? I don't know.

If I was Gorton, I'd have gone Tippet. Give me the shooter all day every day. Kid's played 10 games since being sent back to the OHL and has 56 shots on goal. 5th on the team and he's played at least 14 less games than anyone above him.

Volume shooters and goal scorers. Not safe guys. Safe is death in the draft. You can find quality middle-6 players on the FA market every year. You can't find first-liners all that often.

 

[Vinny DeAngelo]

Have a few issues with your post, @Edge

1. Comparisons to Miller and Kreider are... soft. There's a difference between "reaching" or "going safe" at 7OA versus 15OA and 19OA. This is why the established vernacular "first-round" pick is misleading. The first-round is really four different rounds for the most part. 1OA, 2-3, 4-10, everyone else. Generally, binning is bad. Even the "four rounds" thing I just did is bad. Each pick can be classified as it's own value, but the drop-off isn't consistent. The drop from 7 to 15 or 7 to 19 is huge.

2. Why are you ignoring Mittlestadt and Tippet? Two other guys who could've easily been picked at 7 and only focusing on Vilardi?

3. He was the third-ranked Euro skater, but how does that compare to where he was in the grand scheme of things? McKenzie has him at #13 in his aggregated list. Does that matter? I'm not sure. I think Klim Kostin was the #1 ranked Euro skater, right? And he went 31st.

4. It's' not that there was an "obvious, consensus" choice sitting on the board at #7. There very rarely ever is at that point in the draft. But, that doesn't take away from the fact that there were potentially better picks on the board available than LA was.

For all intents and purposes, it seems like the Rangers drafted safe instead of for boom. The chance that LA will be an NHL player, is probably pretty high. At the very least, he'll establish himself as a bottom-6 player. But, does he have that boom potential to ever solidify himself as a first-line center? I have my personal doubts about that.

Meanwhile, you have guys like Mittlestadt, and Tippet, who, IMO, do have that boom potential. But, do they have the same floor that Andersson does? I don't know.

If I was Gorton, I'd have gone Tippet. Give me the shooter all day every day. Kid's played 10 games since being sent back to the OHL and has 56 shots on goal. 5th on the team and he's played at least 14 less games than anyone above him.

Volume shooters and goal scorers. Not safe guys. Safe is death in the draft. You can find quality middle-6 players on the FA market every year. You can't find first-liners all that often.

Theres a reason why Kostin was pasted on twice by us. and 3 times by Vegas.

Theres a lot to be said about mittlestadt. For f***s sake we debated if Lias was too small....

Tippet isn't some elite sniper. Theres a reason why he was in the same range as lias and vilardi.

We havent had a first round pick since Brady Skjei. I think that warrants going with a safer guy. we can't afford another disaster of a draft

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Ah, we are playing the if-game, I see.

Andersson has 1C potential, if he can become a better shooter.

Now you are just making things up. Andersson does not have 1C potential.

Well, I guess anyone does. Tanner Glass could become Alex Ovechkin tomorrow, but things actually with a chance of happening.

 

[silverfish]

Theres a reason why Kostin was pasted on twice by us. and 3 times by Vegas.

Theres a lot to be said about mittlestadt. For ****s sake we debated if Lias was too small....

Tippet isn't some elite sniper. Theres a reason why he was in the same range as lias and vilardi.

We havent had a first round pick since Brady Skjei. I think that warrants going with a safer guy. we can't afford another disaster of a draft

Re: Kostin, that was my point. Saying that LA wasn't much of a reach because he was the 3rd ranked Euro skater is, well, unimportant.

I don't care about size. But I understand why you bring this point up. Doesn't need to be brought up to me, though

There's a difference between me saying that Tippet is a volume shooter and claiming that Tippet is an elite sniper, which I have not done.

Drafting safe is a smart way to bring disaster on yourself. Getting a bottom-6 player at 7OA is better than drafting a bust, sure, but getting a potential top-6 or top-3 player is a lot better than a guy who we know may never reach that level. McIlrath was a reach and a safe pick that filled an organizational need. Sound familiar?

 

[Ola]

Now you are just making things up. Andersson does not have 1C potential.

Well, I guess anyone does. Tanner Glass could become Alex Ovechkin tomorrow, but things actually with a chance of happening.

I would definitely say that he has 1C potential.

All kids have ways to go, I am not sure I buy the safe/high potential distinction at all. A good player is very safe to play, a bad player will probably not play.

In the NHL today — can anyone point at a great player that was close to miss it? Crosby, AO or McDavid?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I would definitely say that he has 1C potential.

All kids have ways to go, I am not sure I buy the safe/high potential distinction at all. A good player is very safe to play, a bad player will probably not play.

In the NHL today — can anyone point at a great player that was close to miss it? Crosby, AO or McDavid?

I thought that he might prior to the draft, but after watching him play this season closer and more often, I don't think so. I guess the blueprint people would use is Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, a guy who can score like 60 points and put up Selke caliber defense, but I don't think he has 60+ point offense. All those guys are bigger offensive threats, in my opinion. I think they are more skilled, better skaters, better passers, they can dominate a shift offensively. If Andersson doesn't show that in the SHL, I'm not sure why he'd show it in the NHL.

I'm not saying that means he's bad or anything like that, but I think if you asked non-NYR fans, they'd tell you he doesn't have 1C potential.

 

[eco's bones]

I think there's this narrative that the Rangers went off the board, which isn't entirely true.

Andersson was the number 3 ranked European Skater, so it's not like he wasn't on any radars.

Did they take him higher than he was projected to go? Yes.

But it's not like they took a guy slated for one of the final picks of the first round and gabbed him at number 7.

More importantly the "reach" we made on Andersson isn't really all that different than the "reaches" we made on forwards like Kreider or Miller, our two other more recent first rounds pick who are forwards. Neither of those guys were consensus 15th or 19th overall picks either and were generally ranked a little lower than the position at which we drafted them.

If there's one thing the Rangers have shown over the last 12 or so years, it's that they're going to adhere to a list that varies greatly from more mainstream lists. And significantly more often than not, they've done a good job with their first round picks.

With regards to Vilardi, he's a very good prospect. There's no denying that. The debate is whether the total package is significantly better than Andersson. IMO, Vilardi and Andersson are right there in that second cluster of prospects in 2017. Some guys did things better than them, they did things better than other guys.

What I disagree with, and continue to disagree with, is that there was some obvious choice sitting out there that belonged in the first grouping of prospects. For me, that group closed with Glass at number 6. Personally, I wanted Suzuki, but it wasn't on the same level as seeing a Getzlaf or a Tarasenko sitting out there waiting to be picked. Time will tell if the result is the same, but within the context of when the pick was made, I don't have any immediate regrets.

With regards to Vilardi, it's also worth pointing out that he wasn't immediately snapped up right after we picked. It's also worth pointing out that no one has seen him play this season due to injury.

Clearly, his status as a prospect, or even that of Suzuki's, didn't exactly come about by a clear cut consensus - they fell to 11th and 13th respectively.

Just to your point on Kreider--the consensus of the experts in 2009 of power forwards was pretty much totally behind Zack Kassian--Kreider was a project who would take years. Fast forward to now and Kassian isn't even close to the player Kreider has become. Drafting 18 year olds is an inexact science though more often than not when looking at a player such as Andersson who is playing and succeeding in one of the best men's league on the planet it puts the odds more on your side.

 

[UnSandvich]

With regards to Andersson, I don't quite see him as a 1C in the Rangers organization. I think that's more likely Chytil's job to lose once Zibs starts slowing down. On the other hand, I also don't see him as the bottom 6 player that a lot of people on here seem to. I think he's going to improve over the next few years, and end up being a steady 2C, think Kesler in Anaheim, maybe with a bit less offense, maybe a bit more

 

[Griffinbw]

Repeat after me:
A. Player. Does. Not. Need. To. Score. 70+. Points. To. Be. A. 1C.
Toews, Kopitar, Johansen, Bergeron, Carter (though he is 1C debatable)

 

[DanielBrassard]

Repeat after me:
A. Player. Does. Not. Need. To. Score. 70+. Points. To. Be. A. 1C.
Toews, Kopitar, Johansen, Bergeron, Carter (though he is 1C debatable)

Toews in his prime routinely put up around 70 points, Kopitar as well, Jeff Carter scores 30+ goals every year, Bergeron is the best possession player in the NHL. No you don't need to put up 70+ to be a number 1, but these are not great examples.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

I thought that he might prior to the draft, but after watching him play this season closer and more often, I don't think so. I guess the blueprint people would use is Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, a guy who can score like 60 points and put up Selke caliber defense, but I don't think he has 60+ point offense. All those guys are bigger offensive threats, in my opinion. I think they are more skilled, better skaters, better passers, they can dominate a shift offensively. If Andersson doesn't show that in the SHL, I'm not sure why he'd show it in the NHL.

I'm not saying that means he's bad or anything like that, but I think if you asked non-NYR fans, they'd tell you he doesn't have 1C potential.

Andersson is 7 points away from tying Kopitar for points in the SHL in D+1. But sure, go ahead and say Andersson just "doesn't have it" based on 3 months of hockey

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Andersson is 7 points away from tying Kopitar for points in the SHL in D+1. But sure, go ahead and say Andersson just "doesn't have it" based on 3 months of hockey

But the part of that you are missing is that Kopitar despite mediocre SHL stats for a guy who ended up as a 1C ended up figuring something out later on. You are banking on Andersson doing so later on, he doesn't currently show 1C offense. And how do we know that Kopitar didn't show 1C offense at that age? I assume he didn't, given those stats, but we don't know for sure. Showing 1C ability and SHL points don't always correlate.

Edit: I just realized how deceiving your comment is. Andersson is like 10 months older in his D+1 season. Andersson was one of his draft's oldest players, Kopitar one of his draft's youngest players. Look at the improvement Kopitar showed in points his next season. 61 in the NHL.

 

[Irishguy42]

Andersson is 7 points away from tying Kopitar for points in the SHL in D+1. But sure, go ahead and say Andersson just "doesn't have it" based on 3 months of hockey

Yeah, but does Andersson push rocks up a mountain and jump over milk crates for training?

I thought not.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

But the part of that you are missing is that Kopitar despite mediocre SHL stats for a guy who ended up as a 1C ended up figuring something out later on. You are banking on Andersson doing so later on, he doesn't currently show 1C offense. And how do we know that Kopitar didn't show 1C offense at that age? I assume he didn't, given those stats, but we don't know for sure. Showing 1C ability and SHL points don't always correlate.

Funny, since we were discussing his lack of points earlier this season as the main reason why he "sucks".

I am just going to leave this here, again:

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Funny, since we were discussing his lack of points earlier this season as the main reason why he "sucks".

I am just going to leave this here, again:

You are the one who left out the over 10 month difference in their ages during those seasons.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

PB rooting hard for LA to fail so that his dubious scouting credibility remains intact.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

You are the one who left out the over 10 month difference in their ages during those seasons.

Want to compare Andersson's D-1 season to Kopitar's D+1 season then? Fine by me.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Want to compare Andersson's D-1 season to Kopitar's D+1 season then? Fine by me.

I'd rather not make a ridiculous comparison because I don't expect him to be Kopitar.

 

[Ola]

I thought that he might prior to the draft, but after watching him play this season closer and more often, I don't think so. I guess the blueprint people would use is Toews, Bergeron, Kopitar, a guy who can score like 60 points and put up Selke caliber defense, but I don't think he has 60+ point offense. All those guys are bigger offensive threats, in my opinion. I think they are more skilled, better skaters, better passers, they can dominate a shift offensively. If Andersson doesn't show that in the SHL, I'm not sure why he'd show it in the NHL.

I'm not saying that means he's bad or anything like that, but I think if you asked non-NYR fans, they'd tell you he doesn't have 1C potential.

Is he likely to become a No 1C? I think that is a bit different topic. I liked Mittlestadt the most, but you know none of these kids are safe bets. That is what I meant with everyone having ways to go.

I actually think Lias has more potential than say a Yamamoto or Suzuki and the likes. Those guys will at best become high energy offensive players, like say an Atkinson. As a top center Lias could be more valuable. Glass as well as Vilardi have their own issues — just look around the league. Sam Bennet. Sam Reinhart — how good is he becoming? Ryan Strome? The bigger high scoring CHL players are far from thriving in the NHL today.

Elias Pettersson is not your typical great NHL players. He is as shy as they come. Extremely low key. How will he transform? Could become the best in the game as well as a bust — you can’t bank on either, but sure I believe he will become good.

You are selling Lias skill set short if you don’t believe that he can make really good plays on the ice. Again I think it’s all about speed, he actually makes really good plays when he gets open ice. Like I understand where you are coming from, when not getting that ice he has played some invisible games. But have you ever seen him not play well when he got space? I’ve seen a ton of him, probably 15 games, I’ve been worried too, but whenever he get space he has impressed me.

Just saying, sure Lias isn’t a lock and sure he has to take a big step to become a No 1C. But that also applies to Glass, Villardi, Suzuki, Yamamoto and co. They have ways to go too to become the top winger for their team or top center.

And another thing, I am saying the above assuming that Lias will score less in the SHL this season than I think many expects after his production the last 10 games. I think he needs a year or two to really become more explosive.

 

[darko]

I'd rather not make a ridiculous comparison because I don't expect him to be Kopitar.

You just don't get it man. No one is saying that he'll be Kopitar just that his stats are Kopitar-like at the same age and could turn into another Kopitar. So we can't throw out Kopitar comparisons for Lias but it's ok for you throw whatever comparisons for the prospects you like?

I'm at the point where i believe you are cheering for Lias to fail just so you can say you were right all along.

 

[darko]

I'd rather not make a ridiculous comparison because I don't expect him to be Kopitar.

Yet you had no issues comparing Buch's stats to Kuznetsov, Tarasenko and co. Don't say you didn't because PB threads are full of it.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

You just don't get it man. No one is saying that he'll be Kopitar just that his stats are Kopitar-like at the same age and could turn into another Kopitar. So we can't throw out Kopitar comparisons for Lias but it's ok for you throw whatever comparisons for the prospects you like?

I'm at the point where i believe you are cheering for Lias to fail just so you can say you were right all along.

You are contradicting yourself with this statement. So no one's saying he'll be Kopitar but he could turn into another Kopitar? Seems a strange statement to me.

No one is saying that he'll be Kopitar just that his stats are Kopitar-like at the same age and could turn into another Kopitar.

I also reject your premise that I don't like Andersson. I like Andersson and have constantly rated him near the consensus, but I think I have appropriate expectations. I think my expectations are actually rather similar to the experts.

I had him ranked 19th from the last draft.

Here were the experts:

Rankings

Hockey Prospect: 12
Future Considerations: 13
ISS: 25
Central Scouting service: 3 (European skaters)
McKeen’s: 17
Bob McKenzie: 13
Craig Button: 18
Corey Pronman: 16
Ryan Kennedy: 17

2017 NHL Draft prospect profile: Lias Andersson’s skill is undeniable
Top NHL draft prospects: 1-20
2017 NHL draft: Ranking the top 120 prospects | The Hockey News

Do they all hate Andersson?

I don't see any real difference here between my opinion at the draft, and the consensus. Since the draft, I've liked what I've seen, but I have seen slight questions about his offensive upside.

 

[Alluckks]

You won't concede a single thing to a view that opposes yours and it is just sad.

It is going to get to the point where even if you have a well argued position people won't agree with you because you lobbed all your credibility out the window.