2016 NHL Entry Draft Thread IV

[FrankMTL]

The obvious 8 (Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Dubois, Chychrun, Tkachuk, Juolevi, Nylander) are off the board. Sergachyov, Bean, Brown, Keller & Jost are on the board.

Would you guys trade the pick + Beaulieu for Drouin?

Perhaps...But we're just creating on hole on defence though...

If Dubois is still on the board at 6, i'm doing my best to trade up to get him though...

 

[rahad]

9th overall plus Beaulieu? How far up do we move?

9th overall plus Eller? How far up do we move?

9th overall plus Desharnais? How far down do we move?

Serious questions...

With that trade, we go from 9 to 13th overall...

 

[sandviper]

If Toronto wins the lottery: Matthews
If they win the lottery, Edmonton would draft Laine
If they win the lottery, Vancouver would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Colombus would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Calgary would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Winnipeg would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Arizona would draft Matthews for sure or the concession is dead.
If they win the lottery, Buffalo would draft Laine
If they win the lottery, Montreal would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Colorado would draft Matthews

So I have 2 teams drafting Laine and 8 teams drafting Matthews if on top after the lottery. I think Buffalo and Edmonton are in a similar position where they have drafted better center talent vs. Matthews in the last 2 years and Laine would bring the most value to them.

I think this is a realistic assessment. Not sure regarding Buffalo and Laine (seems plausible though), but 100% agree with Edmonton.

 

[SOLR]

EDM would be dumb to not pick Matthews and trade him for a ransom a la Lindros.

Matthews is a not a freaking Lindros, Mcdavid (Ekblad) or Crosby. Can we stop with this incoherent hype, this is getting out of hand.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

Matthews is a not a freaking Lindros, Mcdavid (Ekblad) or Crosby. Can we stop with this incoherent hype, this is getting out of hand.

I compared the packages/situation, not the players...

 

[FrankMTL]

Matthews is a not a freaking Lindros, Mcdavid (Ekblad) or Crosby. Can we stop with this incoherent hype, this is getting out of hand.

I don't think he's in that category either, but I do think he has PPG Top 5 Centre in the league potential

 

[JayKing]

I compared the packages/situation, not the players...

Matthews is not going to command a Lindros type return. Only McDavid can get you that in 2016.

 

[SOLR]

I compared the packages/situation, not the players...

Players who are not generational don't get Lindros-like packages. Therefore, it's a very different situation, it changes who has leverage.

Let say Edmonton can get Ekman Larsson, Domi, Duclair for Matthews, do you take that? Vs. a Laine? Or you draft Laine and then trade Nugent Hopkins for a good D. etc?
If the player up for sale won't get a package that all parties would accept is an overpayment, you generally shouldn't trade away top 5 picks. Its not as clear cut a number of assets as this:

"Steve Duchesne, Ron Hextall, Kerry Huffman, Mike Ricci, the rights to Peter Forsberg, the Flyers' first-round pick in 1992 (seventh overall) and 1993 and $15 million

I don't think he's in that category either, but I do think he has PPG Top 5 Centre in the league potential

(Looking 3-5 years ahead) Well given that Eichel and McDavid will be there, there is 3 spots left.

Seguin, might still be there.
Galchenyuk might be there.
Tavares might still be there.
Hell Crosby might still be there.
etc.

Possibly.

 

[lamp9post]

9th overall plus Beaulieu? How far up do we move?

9th overall plus Eller? How far up do we move?

9th overall plus Desharnais? How far down do we move?

Serious questions...

Probably no where. Maybe up one spot if the team ahead of us has no clear preference between a couple players AND likes Eller, but I can't see a team in the top 10 compromise their draft position for Eller.

 

[sharks9]

TSN's updated draft rankings

http://www.tsn.ca/laine-closes-gap-on-matthews-atop-tsn-draft-rankings-1.478128

1. Auston Matthews
Centre | Zurich (SUI) | 6-2 | 194 lbs. | Sept. 17, 1997

2. Patrik Laine
Right Wing | Tappara (SM-liiga) | 6-4 | 206 lbs. | Jan. 13, 1997

3. Jesse Puljujarvi
Right Wing | Karpat (SM-liiga) | 6-4 | 203 lbs. | May 7, 1998

4. Matthew Tkachuk
Left Wing | London (OHL) | 6-1 | 195 lbs. | Dec. 11, 1997

5. Pierre-Luc Dubois
Left Wing | Cape Breton (QMJHL) | 6-3 | 202 lbs. | Jun. 24, 1998

6. Alex Nylander
Right Wing | Mississauga (OHL) | 6-1 | 179 lbs. | Mar. 2, 1998

7. Olli Juolevi
Defence | London (OHL) | 6-3 | 185 lbs. | May 5, 1998

8. Mikhail Sergachev
Defence | Windsor (OHL) | 6-3 | 206 lbs. | Jun. 25, 1998

9. Jakob Chychrun
Defence | Sarnia (OHL) | 6-2 | 215 lbs. | Mar. 31, 1998

10. Clayton Keller
Centre | USA NTDP (USHL) | 5-10 | 168 lbs. | Jul. 29, 1998

11. Tyson Jost
Centre | Penticton (BCHL) | 5-11 | 191 lbs. | Mar. 17, 1998

12. Jake Bean
Defence | Calgary (WHL) | 6-1 | 173 lbs. | June 9, 1998

13. Logan Brown
Windsor | USA NTDP (USHL) | 6-6 | 222 lbs. | Mar. 5, 1998

14. Charles McAvoy
Defence | Boston U (H-East) | 6-1 | 208 lbs. | Dec. 21, 1997

15. Michael McLeod
Centre | Mississauga (OHL) | 6-2 | 188 lbs. | Feb. 3, 1998

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Lots of late risers apparently, the U18 might have a bigger importance than usual this year . Quite a few guys ,like Jost and Keller, got themselves in the top 12 equation because of it. I wouldn't be surprised if Brown gets in too.

 

[jfm133]

Brown will be top-10. Such a big center with skills and vision is too good to pass on. The guy finished the year in the OHL, in his l;ast 12 games, on a 2 points per game pace, and did the same at the U-18.

 

[Doublechin]

You sound desperate to make this point.

It's not as clear as it is suggested because:

- Laine is younger.
- Laine has progressed more this year.
- Laine has more size and it's a good fit with his role.
- Laine fits a need that Matthews never will.

Yakupov was also a superior skater, and he was nearly out of my top 10 (I was called ridiculous there too). I was also called ridiculous for having Maxpac in my top5 in 2007. Ridiculous. Or for thinking Nugent-Hopkins would be so injury prone to the point where he would bring limited value, ridiculous. Or for proposing Tarasenko should be in the top 5 in 2010, while Nino was so overrated, ridiculous. I'm being called ridiculous every year. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong (I was sure Taylor Hall would be better than Seguin).

Matthews isn't Yakupov, but he failed to rise up in big moments this year, while Laine did.

For this reason, and to give 97 a lifetime 40 goal winger with size , I believe Edmonton will draft Laine and that he is the BPA for Edmonton. In other words, Laine is the best player they can get to maximise the value of the pick, and the assets they already have. See, BPA is not a "rigid" concept like you think it is, it's not "drafting for need" when you choose a player in a role you absolutely need to fill, over someone of about the same value (And in the cap world, drafting "pure" BPA might be the most insane thing to do in small delta situations). It's happening every single year, for every single pick. Now, I'm not saying Edmonton might not end-up with Matthews because he seems to be top ranked assets, (and therefore top trade value).

To illustrate:

If Toronto wins the lottery: Matthews
If they win the lottery, Edmonton would draft Laine
If they win the lottery, Vancouver would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Colombus would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Calgary would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Winnipeg would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Arizona would draft Matthews for sure or the concession is dead.
If they win the lottery, Buffalo would draft Laine
If they win the lottery, Montreal would draft Matthews
If they win the lottery, Colorado would draft Matthews

So I have 2 teams drafting Laine and 8 teams drafting Matthews if on top after the lottery. I think Buffalo and Edmonton are in a similar position where they have drafted better center talent vs. Matthews in the last 2 years and Laine would bring the most value to them.

Calgary is good with Monahon and Bennett at C

 

[S Bah]

TSN's updated draft rankings

http://www.tsn.ca/laine-closes-gap-on-matthews-atop-tsn-draft-rankings-1.478128

1. Auston Matthews
Centre | Zurich (SUI) | 6-2 | 194 lbs. | Sept. 17, 1997

2. Patrik Laine
Right Wing | Tappara (SM-liiga) | 6-4 | 206 lbs. | Jan. 13, 1997

3. Jesse Puljujarvi
Right Wing | Karpat (SM-liiga) | 6-4 | 203 lbs. | May 7, 1998

4. Matthew Tkachuk
Left Wing | London (OHL) | 6-1 | 195 lbs. | Dec. 11, 1997

5. Pierre-Luc Dubois
Left Wing | Cape Breton (QMJHL) | 6-3 | 202 lbs. | Jun. 24, 1998

6. Alex Nylander
Right Wing | Mississauga (OHL) | 6-1 | 179 lbs. | Mar. 2, 1998

7. Olli Juolevi
Defence | London (OHL) | 6-3 | 185 lbs. | May 5, 1998

8. Mikhail Sergachev
Defence | Windsor (OHL) | 6-3 | 206 lbs. | Jun. 25, 1998

9. Jakob Chychrun
Defence | Sarnia (OHL) | 6-2 | 215 lbs. | Mar. 31, 1998

10. Clayton Keller
Centre | USA NTDP (USHL) | 5-10 | 168 lbs. | Jul. 29, 1998

11. Tyson Jost
Centre | Penticton (BCHL) | 5-11 | 191 lbs. | Mar. 17, 1998

12. Jake Bean
Defence | Calgary (WHL) | 6-1 | 173 lbs. | June 9, 1998

13. Logan Brown
Windsor | USA NTDP (USHL) | 6-6 | 222 lbs. | Mar. 5, 1998

14. Charles McAvoy
Defence | Boston U (H-East) | 6-1 | 208 lbs. | Dec. 21, 1997

15. Michael McLeod
Centre | Mississauga (OHL) | 6-2 | 188 lbs. | Feb. 3, 1998

After the lottery draws on Saturday, given this order of players, I'd want the Habs to trade for the 14 & 15th picks in exchange for the 9th. Just sayin!!!... Mindful that Chychrun does key plenty of interest at 9th though.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Instead of playing hypotheticals... lets work with some facts shall we?

2 out of 10 NHL scouts surveyed told McKenzie that Laine was #1.... 8 out of 10 take Matthews.


As for the Buffalo and Edmonton picks... if Matthews is the number 1 guy on the team's list you draft him and move him (or Draisatl, or Reinhart) to wing. No reason why a centre can't be converted to wing. At #1 overall ALWAYS BPA, ALWAYS. Never draft for need at #1 overall.

 

[Redux91]

Instead of playing hypotheticals... lets work with some facts shall we?

2 out of 10 NHL scouts surveyed told McKenzie that Laine was #1.... 8 out of 10 take Matthews.


As for the Buffalo and Edmonton picks... if Matthews is the number 1 guy on the team's list you draft him and move him (or Draisatl, or Reinhart) to wing. No reason why a centre can't be converted to wing. At #1 overall ALWAYS BPA, ALWAYS. Never draft for need at #1 overall.

I think about this a lot and it makes me feel id draft a center EVERYtime if i were a gm lol.

 

[Mathletic]

Instead of playing hypotheticals... lets work with some facts shall we?

2 out of 10 NHL scouts surveyed told McKenzie that Laine was #1.... 8 out of 10 take Matthews.


As for the Buffalo and Edmonton picks... if Matthews is the number 1 guy on the team's list you draft him and move him (or Draisatl, or Reinhart) to wing. No reason why a centre can't be converted to wing. At #1 overall ALWAYS BPA, ALWAYS. Never draft for need at #1 overall.

or you trade the pick and get value in return

 

[S Bah]

I think about this a lot and it makes me feel id draft a center EVERYtime if i were a gm lol.

Many great wingers have been converted to centers or vise versa, in the Habs systems over history, believe Dat!!!... Markov from center to defence, one example by the Russians. Borgstrom in the 2nd round sounds good.

 

[FireBurningBin]

Sergachev is still really high.. I wouldn't mind picking him, or even better, some time above us. Chychrun, or any of the three centres ranked after him would be fine.

Really good trends for our spot as of late.

 

[FrankMTL]

Players who are not generational don't get Lindros-like packages. Therefore, it's a very different situation, it changes who has leverage.

Let say Edmonton can get Ekman Larsson, Domi, Duclair for Matthews, do you take that? Vs. a Laine? Or you draft Laine and then trade Nugent Hopkins for a good D. etc?
If the player up for sale won't get a package that all parties would accept is an overpayment, you generally shouldn't trade away top 5 picks. Its not as clear cut a number of assets as this:

"Steve Duchesne, Ron Hextall, Kerry Huffman, Mike Ricci, the rights to Peter Forsberg, the Flyers' first-round pick in 1992 (seventh overall) and 1993 and $15 million



(Looking 3-5 years ahead) Well given that Eichel and McDavid will be there, there is 3 spots left.

Seguin, might still be there.
Galchenyuk might be there.
Tavares might still be there.
Hell Crosby might still be there.
etc.

Possibly.

It doesn't need to be 3-5 years from now...it could be 7 years from now when he's 25 or 9 years ago when he's 27. I just mean that in his prime he could be a top 5 centre and a ppg

 

[LastWordArmy]

or you trade the pick and get value in return

sure

or you trade RNH, or Renihart or the centre who is blocking Matthews and get value that way.

There are a ton of ways to play this, but if you are drafting 1st you are coming off a poor season, you need all the value you can get so you go BPA.

 

[LastWordArmy]

For the size lovers, Tage Thompson.

http://lastwordonsports.com/2016/04/27/tage-thompson-scouting-report-2016-nhl-draft-29/

 

[WeThreeKings]

McKenzie's list is pretty great.. really fine with everyone in the top 15 other than McLeod and McAvoy (like him, just he's a RD)

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Yeah, I guess dropping down to 10th wouldn't be the end of the world either.

 

[Mathletic]

sure

or you trade RNH, or Renihart or the centre who is blocking Matthews and get value that way.

There are a ton of ways to play this, but if you are drafting 1st you are coming off a poor season, you need all the value you can get so you go BPA.

agreed