Prospect Info: 2016 Draft - 6 months later

[McFlyingV]

Long term posters are a bit hesitant to heap praise on recent picks after watching prospects blow up their respective leagues in their draft+1 year, only to fizzle out a year or two later and not make it to the NHL.

Off the top of my head: Bunz, Olivier Roy, Houck, Moroz, Hamilton, .... The list goes on.

Moroz had a horrible draft+1. Houck had a sub-par draft+1. Hamliton's was pretty good, but it also came on an absolutely stacked Blades team. Those are the ones you should be skeptical about is guys blowing up on powerhouse teams. This also applies to Bunz in Medicine Hat, but it is hard to judge how goalies will progress into pro in the first place. I like Wells' tools much more than I ever liked Bunz and Roy's. IMO the 2 biggest issues when looking just at CHL numbers is when a player receives a huge jump in production either on a powerhouse team, or as an over-sized more physically mature player. Those usually indicate that the player isn't actually as good as their production, and they rely on physical skills more than hockey IQ, which is probably the biggest attribute for becoming an NHL player. Benson is the opposite of this, he has average physical tools and an average NHL frame, but he has extremely high hockey IQ and vision, and plays on a horrible Vancouver team.

With that said yes its far too early to be proclaiming any of these guys future top 4 or top 6 players, but its not too early to start getting excited about them. Bear for example I can understand people being hesitant on. He's slightly undersized for a D-man and isn't a great skater so despite his offensive ability its hard to say whether or not he'll really amount to anything after junior. Jones on the other hand I think a lot of people should be excited for. He's an exceptional skater, has a good frame, and reads the game well.

I think if you just look at prospects numbers and base your opinion solely off that then you're likely to get burned in overhyping prospects, but when they're putting up numbers and you've actually watched them play and they bring a lot of NHL projectable qualities then its much easier to get excited about them. Thats one of the main reasons I'm not really down on the Niemalainen pick because he looked great in the U18's and great in the rookie tourney, has NHL quality skating and a huge frame. Same goes for guys like Rasanen who looked great in the U18's (smart player, great vision, good 2-way and face-off game, needs to work on his skating and shot) who show at least some promise with their actual abilities and have fairly good numbers to match it.

 

[McFlyingV]

Agree, on all counts as usual.

If anyone is seriously thinking Tkachuk over Pulju, sorry that's dumb. I'll take the 6'4 200+ elite skating, right shot puck hound over Tkachuk. Pulju has the perfect skillset to be McDavids RWer for many, many years to come.

I remember this summer everyone taking a **** all over Nurse and I stuck up for him knowing he'll progress and get better. What happened? Nurse vastly improved, and will continue to improve working with Oates. A 25 year old Nurse will be frightening for opposing teams, just like a 24/25 year old McDavid-Pulju combination will dominate the NHL.

Yeah, I'm not panicking with Niemalainen either. We can be patient with the big fella. One thing I like, his skating is excellent for a guy 6'6+.

Benson is awesome. Future 2nd/3rd line LWer for us. He'll have a long NHL career because of his hockey IQ. It's nice that we can take it slow with him, if we need to send him back to junior next year, so be it. Let him play for Team Canada and really dominate the WHL. No rush with him, I'm not even thinking about him in our lineup for at least 2-3 years.

Rasanen is who I'm watching closely, strong two-way play and he's a right shot centre. We have no young right shot centres with his skill in our pipeline. What a surprise with Wells eh? 0.920 save % (2nd in the OHL). That's a nice surprise.

Yeah I think we're going to be liking Jesse's package quite a bit in the years to come. His skating+endless motor+huge wing span is going to be a huge asset on the forecheck and in the neutral zone, and we desperately needed a RH shot who could really fire the puck (especially one-time it).

I was right there with you on Nurse. I've never been one who thought he would become an offensive stud, but his skating, aggressiveness, and size combo has always impressed me. He was a man amongst boys at the WJC's (despite still being a bean pole) and I expect him to be that same player at the NHL level in a few years once he really matures physically and becomes more comfortable at the NHL level.

Benson is one of the more interesting ones for me. I often wonder if they end up considering turning him into a centre which he played in Bantam. IMO he has all the right tools to become a centre if they wish to go that route, but I do think his hockey IQ is what makes him a safe bet to become an NHLer and I think he still has a fairly high ceiling. I really do think he will be a steal at 32. I think he was ranked somewhere between 10-15 at the start of last season, but its hard to really maintain that while missing half your season and playing the other half injured.

Rasanen is a long-term Haula type project imo. He will need to work on his skating and fill out no question, but he's another player with good hockey IQ so I have tons of time for a player like him. The fact that he's already a good 2-way player and great on face-offs (or at least he was in the U18's) gives him a good shot at becoming a bottom 6 2-way centre, but thats still a long ways away so its far from a guarantee. As for Wells, I didn't really know much about him when we drafted him, but I was very impressed with the way he looked in Penticton. Still to early to know what we have there, but if he keeps it up he'll be one to keep an eye on.

Interesting. I find that O'Reilly plays a heavy, strong game a la Backes, whereas Benson has a pretty slight frame.

Perhaps I'm wrong - I certainly hope that you're right. Kid is still very young.

Benson isn't exactly slight, but he does have room to put on another 10-15 lbs over the next few years. I think he could end up with a frame similar to Perron which isn't far off from ROR. ROR isn't overly physical, but he plays hard on the puck and isn't easy to knock off it, but he like Benson is more of a playmaker than a scorer and is a very smart player. Benson is defensively responsible, but he has a ways to go to reach ROR's 2-way game. Backes is about 10x more physical than ROR.

 

[Smartguy]

IIRC, Benson plays hard and hits despite not being the biggest guy, kind of like a bigger Drake

The thing about benson is because of injury I would say he's almost a year developmentally behind, which being almost 10 points over a ppg is really good at his stage. If he can stay healthy for the next couple years I would say we're looking at a legit player.

 

[walktheboulavard]

Yup. When I see people talk about how great Jones and Bear are as prospects I laugh. They are very average.

Actually all the Oilers prospects are. Nothing special in this pipeline.

Jones is a average a prospect? Ok show me a defender that's carrying his junior team while averaging point per game. The Portland Winterhawks where a playoff team looking good under his leadership, but they start getting owned as soon he's out of the line up. When he's in the line up they're a playoff team, not even Benson has that type of impact at the junior level. Bear I can't comment on as I don't follow him as much.

 

[North]

According to Lowetide's write up on Niemalainen, he has been placed in an extremely defensive role.

He's been paired with Hronek and Hronek apparently likes to do some roving.

That's the danger with purely offensive types. Lack of defensive ability and that shows when they reach the NHL (see Barrie, Klingberg, Gostisbehere, etc).

That being said of course you want to see more offense out of him, but he might need a better situation for that.

 

[Bangers]

Moroz had a horrible draft+1. Houck had a sub-par draft+1.

Ah, you're right - Moroz was good in his draft+2 year, but for some reason I remember people being high on Houck the year after he was drafted. TBH, I haven't followed junior for years, so I could be wrong.

Still, I try not to get my hopes up for post-1st round picks until they actually show something at the pro level (although I do like Benson - prospects with good technical skill, IQ and work ethic tend to work out if they can stay healthy). The 2010 draft kinda broke me in that regard - I thought Pitlick, Marincin and Hamilton would all end up being solid contributors for the Oil, Bunz was the goalie of the future, and Martindale and Blain had an outside shot of being contributors. The only one who panned out ended up being a player I didn't really give any chance to (Davidson).

 

[MoneyGuy]

Hello,

So I thought we could discuss in general how our 2016 draft class is looking 6 months after the draft. Most of the guys are around half way through their seasons now, and with scouting services all putting out their 2017 midterm rankings I thought it would be interesting to see people's views on last year's crop as it stands. My personal opinions are based on games, highlights and stats. Some guys more on stats because its very difficult to find even highlights of them let alone full games. Mods obviously feel free to move this to the prospects discussion.

Jesse Puljujarvi - RW, Awesome that this guy came to us at #4. He has struggled a bit obviously at the NHL level, and doesn't have the totals of Matthews and Laine, although he seems to make decent use of the minutes that he gets. Seems like everyone would like to see him utilized better, whether its here playing with McD or Drai more consistently and on the PP, or in Bakersfield getting lots of minutes and confidence. I thought there may have been some hinting that he will go down after the holidays from Chia and TM but we will have to see. We have a good one here for sure, I could definitely see him having a Draisaitl-like campaign next season. He's just gonna need a little more time to learn the NA game and language. Overall a huge potential player/prospect.

Tyler Benson - LW, I recently wrote a little paragraph on what I think of Benson so I'm not gonna retype everything but basically I think he's a very high IQ excellent prospect, who would not have been available at #32 if he played a full season. Really see an NHL player here, and looks like he's getting his development back on track with currently 1.28ppg in the WHL and is playing really well as a driver for his team.

Markus Niemelainen - LD, Good pick at #63 when a few scouting services had him ranked in the mid-late second round. Not putting up numbers offensively this year although he looked quite good in prospect camp in the summer. From the few games and highlights I've watched he seems to be pretty decent in a shutdown role which apparently is the role that the coach put him in this season according to more adept followers of the Spirit. Another high IQ player and at 6'6" and a very good skater for that size, I have time for this player. I think ideally he ends up as a shutdown second pair kinda guy. Another player that I see an NHL future in based on his tools and IQ.

Matt Cairns - LD #84, A player who I can't comment a lot on due to basically only being able to look at stats. Had excellent production last year in the OJHL, but slowed down in the USHL this season I'm gonna assume because of higher level of competition among other factors. NCAA commit, so he is someone that we essentially have to wait on to see where he ends up. From what I know he has good size and skating. Interesting prospect and would love more info on him from someone who knows more and/or is able to see games.

Filip Berglund - RD #91, Overage pick, now playing in the SHL. I haven't been able to see any games, and he doesn't really make it into highlights. Tore up SuperElit last season and currently has 5 assists in 24 games in the SHL which honestly isn't too bad at all considering he doesn't turn 20 until May. Did not get an invite to the Sweden WJC team although he was probably one of the better u20 RHD available. From what I've seen and read, strengths seem to be size, passing, and overall puck skills, while his biggest weakness is skating. Also has decent shot as shown in scouting reports and 19 goals last year, but has yet to score at the pro level. Again, would like more info from someone who has access to games.

Dylan Wells - G #123, People say goalies are voodoo but man is it hard not to get excited about this guy right now. Went from 'meh, really inconsistent, had a bad year, could have some potential, who knows' to quite arguably the best goalie in the OHL and probably #3 in the entire CHL under Hart and Ingram although Ingram is also a year older. Consistently makes excellent saves and the stats truly are not lying with Wells right now. He is quite often the reason his team wins games. IMO this is looking like the best pick of our draft in terms of pure value, as I think he would probably go mid-late 2nd round in a redraft. Really hope he can keep up this level of play as it looks like we might have a truly legit goalie prospect on our hands here. Very excited to see him hopefully in the WJC next year and to get him into the AHL.

Graham McPhee LW #149, Not much to say here as I can only look at stats. 4 points in 20 games for Boston College as a freshman. Scouting reports say things like "hard worker, high compete level and IQ, needs to work on skill elements and skating." Another NCAA player so its a wait and see how he does. Apparently he's grown since he was drafted? If so then that's kinda nice i guess. Any kind of NHL player out of the later rounds is gravy so if he develops into a 4th line energy guy that would be great.

Aapeli Rasanen C #153, Now here is an intriguing prospect. Had an excellent u18 last year and all stats and reports say that he is having a very good season playing on the 2nd best team in the USHL along side top 2017 Finnish prospect Tolvanen. Strong 2-way game, RH centre, could use some work on skating in terms of speed. Assuming he's going to the NCAA next season? I think that is an excellent opportunity for him to develop. He is playing for Finland at the WJC so I hope to be able to watch his play there. There just might be an NHL player here, possibly a #3/4C would be awesome from the 6th round. Would like to hear more about him.

Vincent Deharnais RD #183, Really not much to say here. Overage pick, huge RHD, what looks like limited offense. Supposedly he was picked because of scouting done on Nick Ellis. Have to see where it goes, realistically if he makes it to the NHL its in a 7D/PK role.

Alright, so I'd love to hear other's thoughts and comments on this and on our 2016 draft class. Overall I'd say we made a lot of high IQ player type picks, which is good imo. Not including JP, I think Chia made 3 picks who are better than where they were selected (Benson, Wells and Rasanen) and the other 5 are just about right, with Nemo maybe going later although I really think his offense is suffering because of his team and role.

Great analysis. Yup it's too early for any definitive judgement but still fun to review the draft choices. It looks like a great draft.

 

[Jet Walters]

Finding guys like Caggiula, Benning, and Ellis for free last summer certainly helped the prospect pool too. If only we could have a #1 defenseman emerge out of the middle rounds like Weber/Keith/Josi/Subban.

 

[Aceboogie]

Long term posters are a bit hesitant to heap praise on recent picks after watching prospects blow up their respective leagues in their draft+1 year, only to fizzle out a year or two later and not make it to the NHL.

Off the top of my head: Bunz, Olivier Roy, Houck, Moroz, Hamilton, .... The list goes on.

100%. 3 months is way, way, way to early. But here is my thoughts on the draft. 80-90% of prospects picked after ~45 have similar chance fo working out. They are homogenous and hitting on one is mostly luck. Its no a repeatable skill. But its like a lotto ticket

The only 10-20% are just clear busts from day 1. You can write them off pretty asap. Moroz/hesketh fit this mold

From like 2008-2014ish we took an overwhelming # of prospects from the 10% pool. Some examples are Moroz/McCarron/ Ewanyk/ Czerwonka/Abney/Bigos/ Motin/Kytnar etc. Stick a fork in them. People got excited for them a bit, but no chance they were turning out. This was a major reason our drafting was so bad, we werent even in the lotto. We were picking for size or grit but they never do well in junior even

The 90%- These are the guys people get excited for because they do well in junior and people tend to overrate. However this is where the legit steals come from. The Benns/Brodies/Gaudreaus/Keiths etc. Low hit rate but still a chance. So like a lotto. Guys weve picked from here include Reider/Gustafsson/Bunz/Davidson/Martindale/Marincin/Gernat/Lander/Rajala/Omark/Chase/Roy/Houck etc. Youll see that all of our "hits" have came from this range. But a fair number of busts as well.

I have noticed in the last 2 drafts weve picked almost exclusively from the 90% pool which is really encouraging. And the 2 guys I pegged as future busts from day 1 (Paigin and Wells) really came on in draft +1 year.

I have no clue who will turn out but I have no doubt we have some future NHLers in our system. Probably a future Petry/Davidson/Reider/Brodziak down there somewhere

 

[jebs]

Jones is a average a prospect? Ok show me a defender that's carrying his junior team while averaging point per game. The Portland Winterhawks where a playoff team looking good under his leadership, but they start getting owned as soon he's out of the line up. When he's in the line up they're a playoff team, not even Benson has that type of impact at the junior level. Bear I can't comment on as I don't follow him as much.

Jones is a very average prospect. He's in his draft +2 season. He would be a below average prospect if he wasn't dominating teenagers at his age.

He is better than Bear but not by much.

I do like Benson but if he was that good he would be on the wjc team.

 

[Aceboogie]

Jones is a very average prospect. He's in his draft +2 season. He would be a below average prospect if he wasn't dominating teenagers at his age.

He is better than Bear but not by much.

I do like Benson but if he was that good he would be on the wjc team.

Jones is far from a average prospect. Ppg for a D, especially a two way D is very good

Plenty of studs didn't make wjc team for Canada. Max Domi being one

 

[walktheboulavard]

Jones is a very average prospect. He's in his draft +2 season. He would be a below average prospect if he wasn't dominating teenagers at his age.

He is better than Bear but not by much.

I do like Benson but if he was that good he would be on the wjc team.

Not sure what you mean by his "age" as he's a teenager himself. Also, if you're willing to concede that Benson would be a good prospect if he were to make the WJC team, then by that logic Jones is a good prospect because he's not only on his WJC team but is expected to play a significant role.

 

[McDNicks17]

Really happy with a bunch of the picks.

Rasanen, Wells and Berglund, in particular, look like they could be really solid picks for where they were taken.


Still not a fan of the Niemelainen or Desharnais picks. Drafting a big defenseman because he's big has almost always been a waste of a pick.

 

[North]

Really happy with a bunch of the picks.

Rasanen, Wells and Berglund, in particular, look like they could be really solid picks for where they were taken.


Still not a fan of the Niemelainen or Desharnais picks. Drafting a big defenseman because he's big has almost always been a waste of a pick.

To be fair Niemelainen has more skill than just being big. He can skate well for one. Desharnais appears to just be big.

 

[jebs]

Not sure what you mean by his "age" as he's a teenager himself. Also, if you're willing to concede that Benson would be a good prospect if he were to make the WJC team, then by that logic Jones is a good prospect because he's not only on his WJC team but is expected to play a significant role.

Firstly team Canada is harder to make than USA. Jones didn't make it last year, which if he was a good prospect he would have.

Sorry I base my opinions on seeing guys play not by their numbers and Jones and Beat don't have "it". They will be fringe NHLers at best, to expect more you will just end up disappointed.

 

[hallhopkinseberle]

Really happy with a bunch of the picks.

Rasanen, Wells and Berglund, in particular, look like they could be really solid picks for where they were taken.


Still not a fan of the Niemelainen or Desharnais picks. Drafting a big defenseman because he's big has almost always been a waste of a pick.

I wanted Adam Fox at 63.

 

[jebs]

Jones is far from a average prospect. Ppg for a D, especially a two way D is very good

Plenty of studs didn't make wjc team for Canada. Max Domi being one

Marincin and Gernat put up points in junior too and Jones really isn't that good defensively.

 

[walktheboulavard]

Firstly team Canada is harder to make than USA. Jones didn't make it last year, which if he was a good prospect he would have.

Sorry I base my opinions on seeing guys play not by their numbers and Jones and Beat don't have "it". They will be fringe NHLers at best, to expect more you will just end up disappointed.

I base mine on watching as well; in addition to production. And I am sorry but as much as I want Canada to win they didn't even medal last year and got throughly destroyed by team USA in the in the World Junior Summer Showcase. A showcase that included the likes of Marner, Crouse and Strome by the way in which Jones did a good job against them defensively. As for Marincin and Gernat, they weren't on the same level of production and I am pretty confident Jones will even surpass PPG when he gets back from WJC as he was on a 8 point game streak with no signs of slowing down. Thanks but I think I'll take my chances on whether or not I'll end up disappointed in terms of my expectation of Jones.

 

[Aceboogie]

Marincin and Gernat put up points in junior too and Jones really isn't that good defensively.

Marincin is an NHL D. Id love to get an NL D from the 4th round.

Gernat is a pretty poor example IMO. Gernat had all the talent in the world but he was a notorious lazy player and did basically nothing in the offseason besides skateboard. I know some past Oil prospects who joked that theyd be suprised if Gernat ever saw the inside of a gym. People have stop using him as a comparable for offensive D prospects. He could have had an NHL career if he ever worked to get it. As long as Jones takes a casual jog every month hell be working harder than Gernat ever did

Gernat also played on a stacked Oil Kings team. For reference- Gernat had 6.6% of his teams total points. Right now Jones has 13%(!!) of his teams total points. Oil Kings scored 892 points when Gernat put up his big numbers. Portland is on pace for 470. Theoretically, if Jones played on a team scored 892 points and scoring at an amazing 13% rate hed have 102 points- almost double Gernat. Now different factors would go into that. But needless to say Jones 31 points in 32 games on such a low scoring team is VASTLY superior to anything Gernat did in junior. I was blown away last year when Bear and Jones were around the 9% range. The leader in that regard was Sanhiem at 10%. So for Jones to be 13% is simply amazing