2016-2017 Points Prediction Thread

[Sharppi]

Ok, lets try to predict the (goals + assists = points) our roster will score.

Here's a template if you want to use it and fill your own numbers in. Rosters are taken from wild.nhl.com and I added Carter as he has a PTO and might make the team. Feel free to use your own template / roster too if you feel like it, who am I to say what you can and can't do.

Parise xx + xx = xx
Staal xx + xx = xx
Coyle xx + xx = xx
Zucker xx + xx = xx
Koivu xx + xx = xx
Granlund xx + xx = xx
Nino xx + xx = xx
Haula xx + xx = xx
Pominville xx + xx = xx
Gabriel xx + xx = xx
Dalpe xx + xx = xx
Stewart xx + xx = xx
Carter xx + xx = xx

Suter xx + xx = xx
Spurgeon xx + xx = xx
Scandella xx + xx = xx
Dumba xx + xx = xx
Brodin xx + xx = xx
Reilly xx + xx = xx
Folin xx + xx = xx
Prosser xx + xx = xx

And here's my guess.

Parise 23 + 29 = 52
Staal 13 + 25 = 38
Coyle 18 + 19 = 37
Zucker 15 + 12 = 27
Koivu 14 + 31 = 45
Granlund 13 + 33 = 46
Nino 20 + 22 = 42
Haula 20 + 22 = 42
Pominville 13 + 20 = 33
Gabriel 2 + 3 = 5
Dalpe 1 + 5 = 6
Stewart 7 + 4 = 11
Carter 3 + 3 = 6

Suter 5 + 35 = 40
Spurgeon 6 + 23 = 29
Scandella 6 + 18 = 24
Dumba 9 + 10 = 19
Brodin 2 + 12 = 14
Reilly 2 + 5 = 7
Folin 0 + 3 = 3
Prosser 1 + 1 = 2

Total goals scored 193.

Yeah, I really hope that I'm wrong and we don't see a 20 goal regression from the last season, but those point totals look so goddamn realistic.

Click to read more...

 

[BagHead]

Consider this a "pace" list rather than absolute numbers (which will likely be lower), because I assume most players on this list will miss some games. Many of the lower tier guys like Dalpe may not even get close to a full season up here.

Parise 26 + 32 = 58
Staal 19 + 26 = 45
Coyle 24 + 26 = 50
Zucker 26 + 15 = 41
Koivu 16 + 35 = 51
Granlund 18 + 35 = 53
Nino 30 + 22 = 52
Haula 20 + 20 = 40
Pominville 10 + 20 = 30
Gabriel 3 + 3 = 6
Dalpe 6 + 7 = 13
Stewart 12 + 8 = 20
Carter 9 + 6 = 15

Suter 9 + 40 = 49
Spurgeon 11 + 26 = 37
Scandella 9 + 20 = 29
Dumba 14 + 22 = 36
Brodin 2 + 14 = 16
Reilly 6 + 14 = 20
Folin 2 + 10 = 12
Prosser 1 + 6= 7

 

[Lapa]

Parise 35 + 37 = 72
Staal 15 + 25 = 40
Coyle 21 + 26 = 47
Zucker 12 + 17 = 29
Koivu 13 + 39 = 52
Granlund 12 + 40 = 52
Nino 25 + 23 = 48
Haula 14 + 26 = 40
Pominville 15 + 25 = 40
Gabriel 3 + 7 = 10
Dalpe 2 + 4 = 6
Stewart 10 + 20 = 30
Carter 4 + 6 = 10

Suter 6 + 44 = 50
Spurgeon 10 + 25 = 35
Scandella 10 + 15 = 25
Dumba 18 + 25 = 43
Brodin 6 + 12 = 18
Reilly 10 + 25 = 35
Folin 3 + 5 = 8
Prosser 1 + 1 = 2

Take my list as an on pace list.

-Zucker disappoints; spends the season in the bottom 9, with Nino taking his spot next to Granlund and Koivu
-Gabriel, Dalpe and Prosser spend the season in the pressbox/AHL
-Granlund cracks 50 points
-Staal is a welcome addition to the team
-Dumba breaks out
-Reilly and Dumba become our best defensemen on the PP

 

[57special]

Parise 23 + 22= 45 ( back)
Staal 13 + 23= 37
Coyle 22+ 21= 43
Zucker 15 + 12 = 27
Koivu 14 + 38= 52
Granlund 13 + 33 = 46
Nino 29+ 22 = 51
Haula 16+ 20= 36
Pominville 13 + 20 = 33
Gabriel 2 + 3 = 5
Dalpe 1 + 5 = 6
Stewart 11+ 6= 17
Carter 4+ 5= 9

Suter 5 + 35 = 40
Spurgeon 9+ 24= 33
Scandella 7+ 15= 22
Dumba 12+ 17= 29
Brodin 3+ 13= 16
Reilly 8+ 15 = 23
Folin 1 + 3 = 4
Prosser 1 + 1 = 2


222 goals for me. 343 assists. Is that a normal ratio? I see the D scoring more en masse. Brodin has to score a couple more, Dumba should get double digits, and Reilly should produce some with more PP time. Scandella and Spurgeon are in their prime...we should be getting their best years right now. Not nearly so optimistic about our forwards. Our older guys are due for regression, and Nino is the closest thing to an instinctive scorer that we have on the team. I hope we see Tuch up in the last half of the year. He's a big boy...if he's tough enough he should be able to contribute. With any luck he'll be somewhere between Coyle and Nino skill wise.

Folin bypasses Prosser as head popcorn maker/after whistle face washer.

Suter gets less points due to his decreased TOI.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Rounding to the nearest "5"...

Parise: 30+35=65
Staal: 20+30=50
Coyle: 25+30=55

Granlund: 15+35=50
Koivu: 15+40=55
Zucker: 20+20=40

Nino: 30+25=55
Haula: 20+25=45
Pominville: 15+25=40

Stewart: 10+10=20
Carter: 5+10=15

Suter: 5+35=40
Spurgeon: 5+25=30
Scandella: 5+15=20
Dumba: 15+25=40
Brodin: 5+15=20

Of course not factoring injuries. 240 goals would be just about 3 per game. Not sure if we're that kind of team, so it's probably too optimistic.

 

[keppel146]

Parise 27 + 32 = 59
Staal 17 + 40 = 57
Coyle 25 + 23 = 48
Zucker 23 + 21 = 44
Koivu 15 + 45 = 60
Granlund 16 + 35 = 51
Nino 26 + 22 = 48
Haula 19 + 23 = 42
Pominville 21 + 28 = 49


Suter 9 + 38 = 47
Spurgeon 11 + 25 = 36
Scandella 9 + 21 = 30
Dumba 13 + 20 = 33
Brodin 8 + 15 = 23

 

[FVM]

Parise 30 + 30 = 60
Staal 19 + 26 = 45
Coyle 24 + 25 = 49
Zucker 16 + 15 = 31
Koivu 17 + 38 = 55
Granlund 17 + 38 = 55
Nino 27 + 27 = 54
Haula 16 + 24 = 40
Pominville 15 + 27 = 42
Gabriel 3 + 6 = 9
Dalpe 2 + 5 = 7
Stewart 10 + 15 = 25
Carter 7 + 6 = 13

Suter 7 + 42= 49
Spurgeon 13 + 22 = 35
Scandella 9 + 17 = 26
Dumba 15 + 20 = 35
Brodin 7 + 10 = 17
Reilly 7 + 15 = 22
Folin 2 + 6 = 8
Prosser 1 + 3 = 4


264 goals. Which is weird, because individually the numbers don't feel that optimistic. I guess the injuries will bring this down to more realistic levels. But I do think we will have a good offensive year under Boudreau. Granlund, Nino and Coyle all have a breakthrough into legit top-6 talents. Staal will be decent. Zucker will struggle, whipping himself up too hard and spending most of the time in the bottom-6. D-men will have good numbers throughout the board.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'd say the D numbers look a tad high.

 

[FVM]

I'd say the D numbers look a tad high.

Yeah, that's fair. I probably went too optimistic there.

 

[57special]

Everyone but me has Granlund getting 50+ points. I've still got him at a career high ... 46.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Looking optimistically with a 'Boudreau system + less defensive responsibilities + contract year' situation.

Glass half full... if he does stay in the 40's, at least we have a very good idea who he is and shouldn't be looking at $5M+ on a LT deal.

 

[Wabit]

Without seeing how/where BB has them playing this is hard. So basing it off of a Ducks type game plan. Heavy forecheck, strong board play, faster more open Ozone.

Points are all based on a full 82 games played in 5's

Parise (30/40) -Staal (20/30) -Coyle (20/30) 70g/100a
Granny (10/25) -Koivu (10/30) -Zucker (15/20) 35g/75a
Nino (25/25) -Haula (15/25) -Pommer (15/30) 55g/80a
Stewie (10/15) -rest of 4th line (5/15) 15g/30a

Suter (5/35) -Brodin (10/15) 15g/50a
Scandella (10/25) -Spurgeon (10/25) 20g/50a
Dumba (10/20) - #6D (5/15) 15g/35a

Goailes (1g/3a) - Kemps scores a fluke goalie goal. =)

221g/423a for the year. 6 total SH goals.

Parise, Nino, Coyle, Haula, Dumba, and Brodin benefit from BB/SS coaching. Koivu, Granny, and Spurgeon have a hard time adjusting.

Zucker can't carry the 2nd line for goal scoring and physical play. Doesn't find his groove until he's on a line with Stewie.

Brodin learns to play offense (without any PP time). Dumba learns to play defense. Spurgeon gets paired with a more physical Scandella. Suter/Dumba, Scandella/Spurgeon are PP pairings. Pommer plays point when RHD in the box.

FWDs PP lines Parise/Staal/Coyle, Haula/Koivu/Nino. Granny plays when someone that can take FO's is in the box. Stewie and Zucker get some PP time to shake up the lines.

Ideally Tuch forces his way onto the team and Zucker/???/Stewie start on the 4th line.

 

[15hockeyfan15]

Parise 31 + 32 = 63
Staal 17 + 31 = 48
Coyle 24 + 25 = 49
Zucker 16 + 12 = 28
Koivu 19 + 34 = 53
Granlund 18 + 38 = 56
Nino 28 + 24 = 52
Haula 16 + 19 = 35
Pominville 16 + 26 = 42
Gabriel 1 + 3 = 4
Dalpe 3 + 5 = 8
Stewart 10 + 13 = 23
Carter 6 + 8 = 14

Suter 7 + 34 = 41
Spurgeon 9 + 23 = 32
Scandella 8 + 16 = 24
Dumba 13 + 18 = 31
Brodin 2 + 14 = 16
Reilly 4 + 11 = 15
Folin 1 + 5 = 6
Prosser 0 + 3 = 3

 

[SupremeNachos]

Optimistic High End
Parise (35-35)
Koivu (18-45)
Pominville (23-28)
Staal (25-30)
Coyle (24-29)
Granlund (15-40)
Niederreiter (27-30)
Zucker (24-20)
Stewart (12-17)
Haula (18-32)
Schroeder (7-9)

Suter (8-44)
Spurgeon (14-30)
Brodin (10-20)
Scandella (12-26)
Dumba (16-28)
Folin (2-5)
Prosser (1-4)
Reilly (7-15)

Low Expectations
Parise (25-30)
Koivu (15-35)
Pominville (18-25)
Staal (20-25)
Coyle (20-25)
Granlund (14-33)
Niederreiter (24-20)
Zucker (18-20)
Stewart (8-18)
Haula (18-32)

Suter (6-38)
Spurgeon (10-24)
Brodin (6-18)
Scandella (10-18)
Dumba (12-20)
Reilly (5-12)

 

[hirawl]

Parise 27 + 33 = 60
Staal 11 + 24 = 35
Coyle 23 + 27 = 50
Zucker 13 + 12 = 25
Koivu 16 + 39 = 55
Granlund 17 + 43 = 60
Nino 28 + 22 = 50
Haula 12 + 18 = 30
Pominville 12 + 23 = 35
Gabriel 0 + 0 = 0
Dalpe 0 + 0 = 0
Stewart 5 + 10 = 15
Carter 3 + 7 = 10
Tuch 2 + 3 = 5
Graovac 2 + 8 = 10

Suter 5 + 35 = 40
Spurgeon 7 + 23 = 30
Scandella 5 + 15 = 20
Dumba 11 + 19 = 30
Brodin 3 + 17 = 20
Reilly 5 + 15 = 20
Folin 1 + 4 = 5
Prosser 2 + 3 = 5
Olofsson 1 + 4 = 5


Very much on the high side but I just wanted to round the totals up to fives for each player.

 

[TaLoN]

Parise 33 + 30 = 63
Staal 18 + 30 = 48
Coyle 20 + 25 = 45
Zucker 14 + 12 = 26
Koivu 19 + 32 = 51
Granlund 17 + 37 = 54
Nino 22 + 20 = 42
Haula 16 + 25 = 41
Pominville 20 + 22 = 42
Gabriel 2 + 4 = 6
Dalpe 0 + 0 = 0
Stewart 10 + 15 = 25
Carter 3 + 5 = 8

Suter 6 + 39 = 45
Spurgeon 7 + 29 = 36
Scandella 8 + 26 = 34
Dumba 12 + 19 = 31
Brodin 2 + 15 = 17
Reilly 3 + 12 = 15
Folin 1 + 3 = 4
Prosser 1 + 1 = 2

234 total goals

 

[Sharppi]

Parise 27 + 33 = 60
Staal 11 + 24 = 35
Coyle 23 + 27 = 50
Zucker 13 + 12 = 25
Koivu 16 + 39 = 55
Granlund 17 + 43 = 60
Nino 28 + 22 = 50
Haula 12 + 18 = 30
Pominville 12 + 23 = 35
Gabriel 0 + 0 = 0
Dalpe 0 + 0 = 0
Stewart 5 + 10 = 15
Carter 3 + 7 = 10
Tuch 2 + 3 = 5
Graovac 2 + 8 = 10

Suter 5 + 35 = 40
Spurgeon 7 + 23 = 30
Scandella 5 + 15 = 20
Dumba 11 + 19 = 30
Brodin 3 + 17 = 20
Reilly 5 + 15 = 20
Folin 1 + 4 = 5
Prosser 2 + 3 = 5
Olofsson 1 + 4 = 5


Very much on the high side but I just wanted to round the totals up to fives for each player.

I don't really know about the high side. That's 211 goals, 2 less goals than last season.

 

[Sharppi]

Optimistic High End
Parise (35-35)
Koivu (18-45)
Pominville (23-28)
Staal (25-30)
Coyle (24-29)
Granlund (15-40)
Niederreiter (27-30)
Zucker (24-20)
Stewart (12-17)
Haula (18-32)
Schroeder (7-9)

Suter (8-44)
Spurgeon (14-30)
Brodin (10-20)
Scandella (12-26)
Dumba (16-28)
Folin (2-5)
Prosser (1-4)
Reilly (7-15)

Your optimistic high end would be total of 298 goals, tied with 4th highest goal total since the 2004 lockout, and highest since 2009-2010 season Caps who scored the most goals scored in the after 2004 lockout -era. By the way, they scored 313 in 09-10. That's so ****ing ridiculous I can't even comprehend that (I literally can't even). Ovi with 50, Semin with 40, Backstrom 33, Knuble 29, Laich 25, Fleischmann 23, Fehr 21 and Green scored 19. That's 240 goals from 8 guys. The first 7 guys would have outscored Wilds 213 goals last season by 8 goals with their 221.

 

[Goose312]

Parise 34 + 35 = 69
Staal 15 + 36 = 51
Coyle 24 + 22 = 46
Zucker 13 + 12 = 25
Koivu 9 + 41 = 50
Granlund 16 + 32 = 48
Nino 30 + 28 = 58
Haula 16 + 25 = 41
Pominville 21 + 29 = 50
Gabriel 0 + 0 = 0
Dalpe 0 + 2 = 2
Stewart 14 + 20 = 34
Carter 6 + 6 = 12


Suter 6 + 35 = 41
Spurgeon 12 + 22 = 34
Scandella 7 + 14 = 21
Dumba 14 + 21 = 35
Brodin 5 + 10 = 15
Reilly 6 + 11 = 17
Folin 0 + 5 = 5
Prosser 0 + 0 = pressbox

248, but this is more of a pace thing. With injuries maybe closer to the mid 230's.

Big things are I think Stewart ends up splitting then taking Zucker's top 9 time.
Dumba becomes the pet project of Bruce and Stevens and has a solid top 4 year with heavy PP time.
Nino gets top PP time and hits 30 after taking Zucker's spot on the Finnish line.

 

[57special]

Looking optimistically with a 'Boudreau system + less defensive responsibilities + contract year' situation.

Glass half full... if he does stay in the 40's, at least we have a very good idea who he is and shouldn't be looking at $5M+ on a LT deal.

In the unlikely scenario that he does score 60+ pts., there is no way I give Granny a long term deal at 5+M. I've got see him prove that he can do it over the long term.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

In the unlikely scenario that he does score 60+ pts., there is no way I give Granny a long term deal at 5+M. I've got see him prove that he can do it over the long term.

Well, he's already on his bridge deal. I'd guess that after a (hypothetical) 60 point season, his preference would be longer term. I also believe he has UFA rights in 3 years, so another 2 year bridge deal isn't an ideal scenario IMO.

 

[57special]

Well, he's already on his bridge deal. I'd guess that after a (hypothetical) 60 point season, his preference would be longer term. I also believe he has UFA rights in 3 years, so another 2 year bridge deal isn't an ideal scenario IMO.

I'd take my chances. Don't want to lock him up and see him go Pominville on us( and by that i mean the Pominville of now, not the Pominville of yesteryear, who was a far superior player to Granlund)

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'd take my chances. Don't want to lock him up and see him go Pominville on us( and by that i mean the Pominville of now, not the Pominville of yesteryear, who was a far superior player to Granlund)

Always a chance of that, I guess, although I don't think comparing a 25 year old and 33 year old in terms of future performance is a very good one.

For me it would be a combo of the actual production levels and the eye test. Is he putting up points and being noticeable every night? Or is invisible a lot, with secondary assists and flukey goals? With the former, I'd be a lot more comfortable with term.

 

[PlusMinusZero]

Parise 28+33=61
Staal 16+26=42
Coyle 21+25=46
Zucker 17+14=31
Koivu 16+33=49
Granlund 16+38=54
Nino 26+24=50
Haula 17+21=38
Pominville 15+21=36
Gabriel 2+7=9
Dalpe 1+2=3
Steward 6+14=20
Carter 4+9=13

Suter 6+34=40
Spurgeon 10+23=33
Scandella 7+15=22
Dumba 15+21=36
Brodin 3+15=18
Reilly 9+15=24
Folin 1+5=6
Prosser 0+3=3

 

[GuerinUp]

not going to lie nearly all of you have pomminville scoring more points than haula...

I really do not see that happening this year. Not in the least.