Line Combos: 2016-17 Lineup Discussion, Playoff Edition - Who's Left?

[gilfaizon]

Then lets go Cogs Kesler Wags if were going to make it a defense only line. And put Silfverberg on the top line with Getzy.

We need to maximize our best goal scorers opportunities.

Also makes the Kesler line significantly weaker. I like Silf where he is.

 

[Sojourn]

We can't control the match ups in Edmonton anyway, so keeping the Kesler line strong also means that when they aren't against McDavid they can create more offensively. Last game was a perfect example of how that can benefit us.

 

[Ducks DVM]

They've done a pretty decent job controlling the matchup by winning the faceoff battle. Pretty much every time we do, Kesler jumps out if McDavid is on the ice.

 

[Sojourn]

They've done a pretty decent job controlling the matchup by winning the faceoff battle. Pretty much every time we do, Kesler jumps out if McDavid is on the ice.

I remember having a discussion with a certain pro-analytics poster, and he was adamant that face-offs were not significant.

I also remember laughing at the absurdity of the claim, and wondering how anyone who follows, or plays hockey could possibly feel that way.

 

[Sean Garrity]

I remember having a discussion with a certain pro-analytics poster, and he was adamant that face-offs were not significant.

I also remember laughing at the absurdity of the claim, and wondering how anyone who follows, or plays hockey could possibly feel that way.

I don't remember the poster, but Edmonton was horrendous on faceoffs all year, so them being dominated in the dot and having to overcome that is nothing new. However, at some point I think it's going to catch up to them. Hopefully that happens in this series.

 

[Ducks DVM]

I remember having a discussion with a certain pro-analytics poster, and he was adamant that face-offs were not significant.

I also remember laughing at the absurdity of the claim, and wondering how anyone who follows, or plays hockey could possibly feel that way.

Lies

Damned lies

Statistics


People who don't understand that incomplete data sets yield crap results make me chuckle. Those that vehemently deny that imcomplete data sets yield crap results make me cry.

 

[Trojans86]

I know it probably won't ever happen but I would love to see a silfverberg getz rakell line. Elite all around in my mind.

 

[xxreact9]

I remember having a discussion with a certain pro-analytics poster, and he was adamant that face-offs were not significant.

I also remember laughing at the absurdity of the claim, and wondering how anyone who follows, or plays hockey could possibly feel that way.

Lies

Damned lies

Statistics


People who don't understand that incomplete data sets yield crap results make me chuckle. Those that vehemently deny that imcomplete data sets yield crap results make me cry.

There is plenty of data showing faceoffs don't have a significant impact on the result in games in the average case over the regular season.

The main reason in the case of a season and facing so many different teams and centers even the best faceoff teams trend towards 50%. For reference, Anaheim was 1st in the league and had only 54.7%, and for the sake of argument Colorado was 2nd with 53.6%. Another reason being some teams are better suited to capitalize on winning faceoffs. Having mobile defense is a big way to help in defense/neutral zone faceoffs and Anaheim has the most mobile defense in the league. In the case of Colorado and teams of that quality, they're simply crap and winning a faceoff gets them no closer to winning the game based on that alone.


In the playoffs its really a different comparison as you face the same team and centers repeatedly and can abuse their tendencies. The ducks have had near 60% faceoffs in all 3 games and their top centers even higher.

What this leads to is the ability to have consistency and reliability in winning a faceoff, which leads to the privilege of being able to have low-risk set plays that the Ducks have been able to employ in a variety of different ways. On the Rakell sensation goal, they wouldn't put Getzlaf lined up as a defender and have a cherry picking Rakell if they aren't really confident Kesler wins the draw against the guy he's been steadily beating all series long. This is an example of faceoffs making a big impact in a way they wouldn't in the regular season.

So its ultimately fair to say faceoffs don't impact the game much over the course of a regular season. But in certain games, certain matchups, on certain teams who are good at faceoffs and good at capitalizing on winning them, it can definitely have a big impact.

 

[Ducks DVM]

There is plenty of data showing faceoffs don't have a significant impact on the result in games in the average case over the regular season.

The main reason in the case of a season and facing so many different teams and centers even the best faceoff teams trend towards 50%. For reference, Anaheim was 1st in the league and had only 54.7%, and for the sake of argument Colorado was 2nd with 53.6%. Another reason being some teams are better suited to capitalize on winning faceoffs. Having mobile defense is a big way to help in defense/neutral zone faceoffs and Anaheim has the most mobile defense in the league.


In the playoffs its really a different comparison as you face the same team and centers repeatedly and can abuse their tendencies. The ducks have had near 60% faceoffs in all 3 games and their top centers even higher.

What this leads to is the ability to have consistency and reliability in winning a faceoff, which leads to the privilege of being able to have low-risk set plays that the Ducks have been able to employ in a variety of different ways. On the Rakell sensation goal, they wouldn't put Getzlaf lined up as a defender and have a cherry picking Rakell if they aren't really confident Kesler wins the draw against the guy he's been steadily beating all series long. This is an example of faceoffs making a big impact in a way they wouldn't in the regular season.

So its ultimately fair to say faceoffs don't impact the game much over the course of a regular season. But in certain games, certain matchups, on certain teams who are good at faceoffs and good at capitalizing on winning them, it can definitely have a big impact.

That's the thing, though - looking at ALL faceoff situations is just statistical noise, because you're including a lot of players who can't score and a lot of faceoffs in less dangerous areas. Look at offensively gifted players in the offensive zone. Look at defensively gifted players in the defensive zone against offensively gifted players. THAT would be worthwhile data.

 

[HansH]

I admit I'm a little surprised Kerdiles hasn't been called back up, with the injuries to Kase and Eaves...

 

[Ducksforcup]

I admit I'm a little surprised Kerdiles hasn't been called back up, with the injuries to Kase and Eaves...

I saw a report saying that Eaves no longer required the boot. Could be close to returning.

And perhaps the injury to Kase isn't as serious as first anticipated.

Who knows? Good for SD though they need all the firepower they can muster.

 

[HansH]

I saw a report saying that Eaves no longer required the boot. Could be close to returning.

And perhaps the injury to Kase isn't as serious as first anticipated.

Who knows? Good for SD though they need all the firepower they can muster.

I spoke about 30 minutes too soon:
https://www.nhl.com/ducks/news/ducks-recall-kerdiles-from-san-diego/c-289286348

 

[KelVarnsen]

Kerdiles Recalled per Stephens

 

[duxfan8]

Not that it matters for us, but did Nic play center at all this year in SD?

 

[Terry Yake]

looks like kerdiles is probably going to play tonight

i really don't expect anything out of him. sucks kase is still hurt

 

[AngelDuck]

Not that it matters for us, but did Nic play center at all this year in SD?

No. His game is much better suited on the wing and that's where Eakins has had him

 

[Crosbysux]

looks like kerdiles is probably going to play tonight

i really don't expect anything out of him. sucks kase is still hurt

He played really well in the 1 NHL game he got in earlier this year. He is also the best forward in the AHL for us currently, so I wouldn't be surprised if he had a decent impact tonight for us.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

If randy can shelter NK he should be ok. He was great in gm 5 for the gulls

 

[The Duck Knight]

No. His game is much better suited on the wing and that's where Eakins has had him

I agree he's better suited to play the wing, but Kerdiles has been playing center in the playoffs and at least the last month or so of the season.

 

[AngelDuck]

I agree he's better suited to play the wing, but Kerdiles has been playing center in the playoffs and at least the last month or so of the season.

Really? I could swear he was at wing in the playoff game I caught

I could be wrong...

 

[The Duck Knight]

Really? I could swear he was at wing in the playoff game I caught

I could be wrong...

He's been the 3C for quite a while now due to the Gulls lack of depth down the middle. Garbutt and Noesen were forced to play quite a bit in the middle earlier in the year too. As far as natural centers go it's pretty much Kossila/Carrick/Morley and Morley isn't very good. In the playoffs he's primarily centered Roy and Gortz.