Prospect Info: 2015 NHL Entry Draft Thread | McKenzie's Final Ranking Released

[Oilfan2]

No questions, this pick HSS to be packaged up for a #3 D. I'll be dissappointed if this pick isn't traded. Perfect asset for a trade to a cash strapped team looking to retool

If it's to be packaged, it has to be a top 2 D. You can pick up a #3 in FA..especially with the changes the Oil have made. It will be easier to get some FA's to sign.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

No questions, this pick HSS to be packaged up for a #3 D. I'll be dissappointed if this pick isn't traded. Perfect asset for a trade to a cash strapped team looking to retool

this.

need immediate help and you know that draft pick will be high sought after at the draft

 

[Halibut]

Possibly, but they probably wouldn't be better for like 5 years

whereas going by precedent the guy we trade for will start disappointing us almost immediately.

Hopefully Chiarelli is better than MacT or Tambellini were at assessing the D-men and goalies they traded for.

 

[Dorian2]

We're at the point trading or not trading the pick are both good options. If a decent trade comes up for a solid 1/2 even 3 D or a G or some combination of both, trade away. We have some decent prospects still hanging around in OKC. I am also now very willing to give up a core piece if the deal is right.

On the other hand, if there are no decent options for this type of trade, keep the pick for future depth. Or trade down for more picks like others have suggested.

All I know is that the Oilers are in the drivers seat for the first time in 20 years.

 

[OF17]

If the value isn't there though, you have to make the pick. 16th overall in this draft will bring the same level of prospect that your average ~10th overall pick does, and unless someone ponies up appropriately, make the pick.

To establish that earlier point, let's look at some examples.

Bo Horvat went 9th overall in 2013 as a C with a two-way reputation, some size, and some grit. Jansen Harkins could be available at our pick with the same reputation. Horvat scored more goals. Harkins scored more points.

Derrick Pouliot went 8th overall in 2012 as a primarily offensive D who wasn't a shrimp. Jeremy Roy, same height, same reputation, lower current weight (not sure about draft weight), but with higher production.

Jonas Brodin went 10th in 2011 as a two-way D with great skating. Oliver Kylington had more points in half as many SHL games with the same reputation for skating and two-way play.

The first round of this draft is an absolute monster. Unless someone pays you appropriately, like Schneider-for-Horvat appropriately, you're losing value. There's something to be said for minorly losing a trade for the better of the team, but make damn well sure the difference is only minor before pulling the trigger.

 

[plikestechno]

Just wait until it's near time to make the pick to get the best deal.

If you can't get a decent offer just take the best guy. Not that hard but I'm only interested in trading it for something that will really be significant help on top of what we have already.

 

[dustrock]

If it helps us get a top 2 d-man or a real top goalie, then trade it.

But for another "top 4" d-man? I dunno.

The problem is also that every team is going to look at what Chiarelli is going to do - every team knows what we need - so is it going to be another "Schneider for Nurse, Marincin and a 2nd" or whatever?

And if it is, maybe this year you suck it up and take the offer.

 

[GMofOilers]

We have to trade it this year in my opinion.

 

[PinSeeker]

We have to trade it this year in my opinion.

Have to. Trade it, trade it, trade it.

 

[rasarhdasd]

I have no doubt that they will not be making that pick with Pittsburgh's 1st.

 

[McOvechking]

If the value isn't there though, you have to make the pick. 16th overall in this draft will bring the same level of prospect that your average ~10th overall pick does, and unless someone ponies up appropriately, make the pick.

To establish that earlier point, let's look at some examples.

Bo Horvat went 9th overall in 2013 as a C with a two-way reputation, some size, and some grit. Jansen Harkins could be available at our pick with the same reputation. Horvat scored more goals. Harkins scored more points.

Derrick Pouliot went 8th overall in 2012 as a primarily offensive D who wasn't a shrimp. Jeremy Roy, same height, same reputation, lower current weight (not sure about draft weight), but with higher production.

Jonas Brodin went 10th in 2011 as a two-way D with great skating. Oliver Kylington had more points in half as many SHL games with the same reputation for skating and two-way play.

The first round of this draft is an absolute monster. Unless someone pays you appropriately, like Schneider-for-Horvat appropriately, you're losing value. There's something to be said for minorly losing a trade for the better of the team, but make damn well sure the difference is only minor before pulling the trigger.

This. Not to mention this list of the league's top dmen:

Shea Weber #49OA
Kevin Shattenkirk #14OA
Erik Karlsson #15OA
PK Subban #43OA
Roman Josi #38OA
Duncan Keith #54OA
Brent Seabrook #14OA

I guess the point I'm trying to make, is that solving our defensive woes should probably happen through the draft. Mid 1sts and 2nd round picks are the way to go about doing that. We've, unfortunately, been busy wasting those picks on skilled forwards - outside of Eberle none of which have developed into much of anything.

If you ask me, it's not worth trading this pick for a #3/4 on a bad contract, when we could use it to get a potential franchise dman.

 

[IAGTTAYM]

I'd trade the 16th overall, maybe in a package, for a younger top-4 d-man that can play now. What I wouldn't do is trading it for a d-man that has 1 or 2 years left until UFA.

We need to be smart about it. I don't think we are in a position to risk a very valuable long-term asset to address our short term needs, unless the asset we get back fits in long-term here.

I won't be upset at all if we pick Jeremy Roy 16th overall. Quite the opposite, actually.

 

[McDoused]

Have to. Trade it, trade it, trade it.

Teams don't exactly trade away top pairing defencemen. It bugs me when fans say we "have to" trade it. Does that mean we should trade it for another bottom pairing dman? It all depends on what is on the market.

If teams aren't willing to part with a top pairing guy, I would rather just make the pick.

A guy like Svechnikov or Connor could turn out to be a steal. I also wouldn't mind Chabot or Roy.

 

[IAGTTAYM]

Teams don't exactly trade away top pairing defencemen. It bugs me when fans say we "have to" trade it. Does that mean we should trade it for another bottom pairing dman? It all depends on what is on the market.

If teams aren't willing to part with a top pairing guy, I would rather just make the pick.

A guy like Svechnikov or Connor could turn out to be a steal. I also wouldn't mind Chabot or Roy.

While I agree with your sentiment, it's easy to understand why many wants us to trade away picks/prospects for immediate help. Continously having to watch d-men struggle, because they're too high on the depth chart, is very frustrating.

 

[Smartguy]

As much as I believe and want us to trade this pick the value has to be there, we can still get a solid player at that pick who can be used as a trade peice in the future if needed as well. With that being said there seems to be quite a few cap strapped teams and those looking to make a trade who would like that pick

 

[OilTastic]

i believe we still need a strong system for the future so i would make the pick, especially with **potential** top d-men like Chabot, Zboril and Roy likely still available. i also believe that Chiarelli will want to put his own stamp on this team and that includes the draft and a say in who is taken.

 

[AlowlyMcOilersfan]

either the pitt pick for next year's first or both should be traded

 

[McDoused]

While I agree with your sentiment, it's easy to understand why many wants us to trade away picks/prospects for immediate help. Continously having to watch d-men struggle, because they're too high on the depth chart, is very frustrating.

I want to trade the pick top but trading is a two way street. If the best offer you get for the pick is a guy like Justin Braun... I personally don't make the move.

 

[The Nuge]

whereas going by precedent the guy we trade for will start disappointing us almost immediately.

Hopefully Chiarelli is better than MacT or Tambellini were at assessing the D-men and goalies they traded for.

so true. Chiarelli is definitely good at trades that make the team better immediately. Peverley for Wheeler for example had a big impact on them winning a cup, but Wheeler eventually ended up the better asset. He definitely has done well bringing in dmen and goalies though

 

[Oilfan2]

either the pitt pick for next year's first or both should be traded

Again..only if the offer is worth the value.

It makes no sense to trade good assets simply for the optics of it.

The 15/16 pick should be a very good asset to get a top 2 D or starting goalie. If not, make the pick.

The first next year could be a top 3 based on the new draft rules. Only if you're getting that top 3 value do you entertain using it.
Sure, you could protect it but that also lessens it's value in a trade.

 

[AlowlyMcOilersfan]

Again..only if the offer is worth the value.

It makes no sense to trade good assets simply for the optics of it.

The 15/16 pick should be a very good asset to get a top 2 D or starting goalie. If not, make the pick.

The first next year could be a top 3 based on the new draft rules. Only if you're getting that top 3 value do you entertain using it.
Sure, you could protect it but that also lessens it's value in a trade.

Oh, of course the value has to be there. We need to get a significant roster player.

 

[McDoused]

Every year we see a guy go in that mid range that pay high dividends for the team drafting them. We can't just throw the pick away.

2007: Kevin Shattenkirk (14th Overall)
2008: Erik Karlsson (15th Overall)
2009: Nick Leddy (16th Overall)
2010: Cam Fowler (12th overall)
2011: Oscar Klefbom (19th Overall)
2012: Olli Maata (22nd Overall)
2013: Josh Morrissey (13th Overall)
2014: Travis Sanheim (17th Overall)

 

[AlowlyMcOilersfan]

Every year we see a guy go in that mid range that pay high dividends for the team drafting them. We can't just throw the pick away.

2007: Kevin Shattenkirk (14th Overall)
2008: Erik Karlsson (15th Overall)
2009: Nick Leddy (16th Overall)
2010: Cam Fowler (12th overall)
2011: Oscar Klefbom (19th Overall)
2012: Olli Maata (22nd Overall)
2013: Josh Morrissey (13th Overall)
2014: Travis Sanheim (17th Overall)

So, to maximize value, we should wait till it's our turn to pick to make a deal?

 

[40oz]

If the Oilers trade their '16 first rounder do you keep the Pens pick?
Does the price at least go up?

 

[Spawn]

Every year we see a guy go in that mid range that pay high dividends for the team drafting them. We can't just throw the pick away.

2007: Kevin Shattenkirk (14th Overall)
2008: Erik Karlsson (15th Overall)
2009: Nick Leddy (16th Overall)
2010: Cam Fowler (12th overall)
2011: Oscar Klefbom (19th Overall)
2012: Olli Maata (22nd Overall)
2013: Josh Morrissey (13th Overall)
2014: Travis Sanheim (17th Overall)

2007: Alex Plante (15th Overall)
2008: Colten Teubert (13th Overall)
2009: David Rundblad (17th Overall)
2010: Derek Forbort (15th Overall)
2011: Duncan Siemens (11th Overall)

Every year we see a guy pay zero dividends in that range. It cuts both ways. I don't think anyone is saying throw the pick away. But the odds are just as good you get an underwhelming return as you get a fantastic one. If you can get a legit top 4 NHLer for it that is signed for 2-3+ years it seems like a no brainer to me.