Prospect Info: 2015 NHL Entry Draft Talk

Satan

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kyle-connor.png


Leading the USHL in scoring, Kyle Connor of the Youngstown Phantoms is that other American forward prospect that is expected to go early in the 1st round of the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. He’s earned many accolades in both Junior and International play; however he was left off the American roster for the 2015 World Junior Championship despite representing his country plenty of times in the past.

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BigG44

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Jul 12, 2007
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I wouldn't want to be ungrateful about getting a great prospect if they landed him, but Kyle Connor sounds so much like Jason Dickinson and Devin Shore. He's probably giving you more offensive upside by a bit, but it would be nice to add a new dimension to the prospect pool. His speed makes him more like Dickinson than Shore though.

I think I'm just hoping for the unlikely situation Werenski falls since it seems unlikely the more interesting forwards will. Plus, traditionally D have seemed to fall some recently ... especially in the Top 10.

I just think in a few years you could put Dallas' potential Top 4 up against almost anyone else if the draft fell that way.

Werenski-Klingberg
Nemeth-Honka

Werenski-Klingberg could be Dallas' answer to Keith-Seabrook or Josi-Weber. Nemeth would help neutralize Honka's size issue by playing with a larger more physical partner.
 
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OttMorrow

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Sep 18, 2003
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I wouldn't want to be ungrateful about getting a great prospect if they landed him, but Kyle Connor sounds so much like Jason Dickinson and Devin Shore. He's probably giving you more offensive upside by a bit, but it would be nice to add a new dimension to the prospect pool. His speed makes him more like Dickinson than Shore though.

I think I'm just hoping for the unlikely situation Werenski falls since it seems unlikely the more interesting forwards will. Plus, traditionally D have seemed to fall some recently ... especially in the Top 10.

I just think in a few years you could put Dallas' potential Top 4 up against almost anyone else if the draft fell that way.

Werenski-Klingberg
Nemeth-Honka

Werenski-Klingberg could be Dallas' answer to Keith-Seabrook or Josi-Weber. Nemeth would help neutralize Honka's size issue by playing with a larger more physical partner.

I feel pretty much the same about Connor. Would LOVE for Werenski to fall to us. I think it's possible.
 

Satan

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Starting to think more and more that we take a defenseman in the first round.

Uggauejvjsuzhebenvkskenebsvxhdue
 

Ghost of Kyiv

Wanted Dead and Alive
Feb 1, 2015
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Starting to think more and more that we take a defenseman in the first round.

Uggauejvjsuzhebenvkskenebsvxhdue

I would not be very pleased with this (a draft day faller notwithstanding). Any word from the Stars brass about this or just speculation?

Have you watched Connor?

Has anyone? One shift by shift is seemingly all that is out there on him. Weird that it's the prototypical 2 way player that is one of the biggest enigmas in this years draft given his lack of exposure.
 

OttMorrow

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Sep 18, 2003
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I would not be very pleased with this (a draft day faller notwithstanding). Any word from the Stars brass about this or just speculation?



Has anyone? One shift by shift is seemingly all that is out there on him. Weird that it's the prototypical 2 way player that is one of the biggest enigmas in this years draft given his lack of exposure.

I'm just confused on how so many people are the most sold on the player that we have the least first-hand knowledge of haha. Seems like wishful thinking.
 

Hull Fan

The Future is Now
Mar 21, 2007
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I'm just confused on how so many people are the most sold on the player that we have the least first-hand knowledge of haha. Seems like wishful thinking.

I don't think it's sold on Connor so much as it's not sold on the other guys there. Besides the mystery of him makes him more appealing. People don't know his warts as much as they do on other players.
 

OttMorrow

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Sep 18, 2003
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I don't think it's sold on Connor so much as it's not sold on the other guys there. Besides the mystery of him makes him more appealing. People don't know his warts as much as they do on other players.

If Nill takes him, I'd assume it was for good reason and I'd trust that Nill thinks he's a STUD from his viewings....and he'd better be a freaking stud to take him ahead of Konecny or Svechnikov for instance. BPA tiebreaker goes to the CHLer IMO. I just can't get that excited about such an UNSEEN USHLer with the bevy of high-end talent that I can actually see first-hand.
 

WhatWhat

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Aug 7, 2014
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If Nill takes him, I'd assume it was for good reason and I'd trust that Nill thinks he's a STUD from his viewings....and he'd better be a freaking stud to take him ahead of Konecny or Svechnikov for instance. BPA tiebreaker goes to the CHLer IMO. I just can't get that excited about such an UNSEEN USHLer with the bevy of high-end talent that I can actually see first-hand.

While this used to be the case, I think we are slowly transitioning into= CHL and USHL being similar, and should no longer take a player because he is a CHLer. A perfect example of this is Dylan Larkin, and along the same lines I think Connor will drop lower than he should because people will still value the CHL higher (which I don't think they should)
 

BigG44

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Jul 12, 2007
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I disagree that the CHL and USHL will ever be all that similar or moving into a closer level of competition. You can find elite players at all levels of competition, but that doesn't mean the gap is closing.

95% of the USHL players are on the NCAA track. The very best of those are gone after their 18 or 19 year season to join an NCAA team. The CHL is only losing a small, elite few to the NHL before the completion of their 20 year old season.

The talent that chooses the USHL is always going to be miles behind the quality committed to the CHL, and they're going to lose a larger percentage of that talent much sooner than the CHL will thanks to the CHL-NHL transfer agreement. Not only is the NCAA and occasionally the CHL poaching USHL talent before they age out, these players can also go to the AHL sooner than the CHLers.

The USHL will never compete with the CHL when their best and brightest have better options in the NCAA or AHL available.

Guys like Dylan Larkin, Kyle Conner, etc. just prove some US born players with elite talent are drawn to the NCAA path, but those victories are few and far between compared to the CHL. Conner is even more rare as a true USHL player. The majority of those USHL top talents are USA U20 players many of whom immediately jump to the NCAA like Eichel or Larkin or ultimately choose to spend their 18/19 and 19/20 year old season in the CHL.

If it wasn't for the U20 transitioning to the USHL recently, USHL draft picks would be far and few between.
 

BigG44

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Just out of curiosity, I looked up the USHL draft stats in the first 3 rounds of the last few drafts.

2014: 8 USA U20 to 6 USHL
2013: 3 USA U20 to 6 USHL
2012: 6 USA U20 to 4 USHL
2011: 6 USA U20 to 3 USHL
2010: 7 USA U20 to 3 USHL

In the 2010 season, there were 13 teams other than the US. There were 15 teams the next 4 years.

In those 5 drafts, one USHL team in the U20 account for 30 of 52 players compared to the other 13 or 15 teams. You'd be silly to discount true talent just because they are in the USHL, but that league is a long, long way from being similar to the CHL.

EDIT: Oh man .... It's even worse when you look at the names rather than just the teams. Every other USA player is either in the NHL or well on their way for that direction. The only notable USHLers of those 22 to date are Jaden Schwartz and Zemgus, Girgunsons. Two who look to have strong futures still developing are Jon Gillies and Nick Schmaltz, although it's pretty unfair to judge 2014 picks right now.
 
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BigG44

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Jul 12, 2007
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On a side note, level of competition has never really scared away Dallas even before Nill. They've drafted U18 European players and OJHL players in the top 3 rounds with Jackson and Nill.

A lower quality USHL isn't going to scare them off at 12 if they think Conner has the talent many others seem to think he has. One big thing he has in common with the non-USA USHLers who are in the NHL right now is they went in the teens.
 

OttMorrow

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Sep 18, 2003
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Bigs, who would you go with if given the choice between Konecny, Connor, and Svechnikov?
 

BigG44

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Jul 12, 2007
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I don't know that my opinion matters much. None of them play with a Dallas prospect so I didn't watch them or if I did it was one or two games against a Dallas prospect. Although, I don't recall watching either Konecny or Svechnikov.

I love the draft, but I mainly get serious after the picks are made. I don't have enough time to focus seriously on a bunch of players that ultimately end up elsewhere, but I wish I could. I just end up watching Dallas' prospects instead though ... mostly the AHL but as many others as possible.

All of my draft guesses are going to be on Dallas trends, we were very heavy WHL and Swedish team with Jackson. They weren't afraid of the BCHL or OJHL either. Nill and McDonnell have leaned much heavier on the OHL (they did in Detroit as well) which is obvious because that's who Nill was able to scout most often, and they aren't afraid of any level of European player it seems. They haven't done it in Dallas yet, but they were not afraid of Slovakian or Czech league players, and in Dallas for the first time (I believe that's accurate) they've taken a U18 Finnish league player in Miro Karjalainen. Detroit was also active in the Q where I don't think Dallas had drafted a player in years before Desrosiers. Bottom line ... I don't think you can narrow a pick down any longer by where they are from. Dallas is a team that won't show favorites or be scared by a lesser league. You use to be able to just know the Q and Russians won't be coming here.

As far as player types, I think Nill and McDonnell have followed Jackson's theme of mostly picking larger players ... very few undersized. That said, they obviously aren't afraid of taking highly skilled smaller players like Ully, Honka, or Prapavessis. Along with most draftees having size, the majority also are good to great skaters.

McDonnell added this last year, "I guess if you asked what we like, it’s skill and compete level. We’re going to look at the strengths and weaknesses of the players, but if you look at the end of the day, that’s the kind of player we’ll often get.” We also know that McDonnell said all things equal, he takes the defender.

It think Conner sounds like the safe pick. He checks off every important box. That said, I think Nichushkin and Honka proved they aren't necessarily what you'd consider traditionally safe with the first pick. Konecny and Svechnikov are the better home run potential. I think size with high end skill would be more attractive to them so ultimately if it came down to those three Svechnikov would be my ultimate guess.
 

BigG44

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This didn't have any impact on why I picked him, but Svechnikov might be eligible for the Honka loophole. At minimum, he's an overage that could join the AHL in 2016-17.

I think your ultimate goal would be for Svechnikov to develop into a top scoring 2nd line role with Nichushkin. As fun as Nuke playing with Benn-Seguin was at times, I think ultimately he's a guy they hope who can carry a line. Not saying Svechnikov should play with Nuke just because they are both Russian either. If Benn and Seguin are your two most talented players, it just makes sense to try and pair your other two potential top offensive threats, plus it would be an ideal situation for a defensive center like Dickinson to step between them long term.

Obviously this is assuming everyone develops as expected, which is not exactly a safe thing to guarantee, but you'd hope for the best. Ritchie's development would be key as well ... hopefully proving he can hold down the RW spot with Benn-Seguin long term.

It'd be a pretty ideal situation if Svechnikov could force the Honka loophole and step in when Hemsky's contract expires in two years.
 

Satan

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Nichushkin was a no-brainer in 2013 but if we were going for the safe pick last year it would've been Dylan Larkin
 

Satan

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In a sentence: A deadly offensive player with a large toolset who can crash and bang with the best.


Suffered in rankings because of his injuries and a disappointing World Junior showing.



Definitely has that combination of size, skating ability and strength that Jim Nill looks for.
 

Satan

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This draft is ****ing scary man. I like the majority of the prospects that fall around us. Deep as ****, like I've said all along.
 

LT

XXXX - XXXX - XX__ - ____
Jul 23, 2010
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So if Zacha falls, you guys would be happy with him? I'm liking him quite a bit. Would be a nice fit on LW behind Benn, and could possibly play center down the road as well (wouldn't count on it though).
 

Satan

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Apr 13, 2010
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Depends who's available at 12.

I'd be pretty disappointed to leave Kyle Connor on the table and take a shot at Pavel Zacha.
 

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