GDT: 2014 Heat Playoff Thread (and all other AHL playoff talk)

[Lunatik]

The Road to Glory Has Begun:
the AHL's Calder Cup Playoffs!

With the Heat announcing they will no longer be playing in Abbotsford beyond the 2014 playoffs they are on their final countdown and want to go out with a bang. What better way to endear yourself to a new fanbase than win the Calder Cup the season before.

It is time to reclaim past glory!

GO HEAT GO!!

​

MVW & Anglesmith: I am not sure if Stewie mentioned I was making a new Heat thread for the playoffs, but I did run the idea by him and he said it was a good idea.

Click to read more...

 

[Lunatik]

AHL playoffs: Round 1
(5) Abbotsford Heat vs. Grand Rapids Griffins (4)

Schedule
Game 1 [Apr 25] Grand Rapids Griffins @ Abbotsford Heat - 8:00 mt
Game 2 [Apr 26] Grand Rapids Griffins @ Abbotsford Heat - 8:00 mt
Game 3 [Apr 30] Abbotsford Heat @ Grand Rapids Girffins - 5:00 mt
Game 4 [May 2] Abbotsford Heat @ Grand Rapids Girffins - 5:00 mt
Game 5 [May 3] Abbotsford Heat @ Grand Rapids Girffins - 5:00 mt
Team Stats Comparison:

Abbotsford Heat | Category | Grand Rapids Griffins
43-25-5-3 | Record | 46-23-2-5
20-11-4-3 | Home Record | 23-13-0-2
23-14-1-0 | Away Record | 23-10-2-3
237 | Goals For | 238
120 | Home Goals For | 114
117 | Away Goals For | 124
215 | Goals Against | 187
106 | Home Goals Against | 86
109 | Away Goals Against | 101
21.9 | Powerplay | 20.2
22.4 | Home Powerplay | 20.4
21.2 | Away Powerplay | 20.0
79.4 | Penalty Kill | 85.6
87.3 | Home Penalty Kill | 86.8
71.5 | Away Penalty Kill | 84.6
966 | Penalty Minutes | 945
6 | Shorthanded Goals For | 6
7 | Shorthanded Goals Against | 5

Abbotsford Heat Regular Season Stats:

# | Name | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | Player Status
25 | Max Reinhart | C | 66 | 21 | 42 | 63 | 6 | 47 |
9 | Ben Street | C | 58 | 28 | 32 | 60 | -10 | 24 |
26 | Markus Granlund | C | 52 | 25 | 21 | 46 | 10 | 22 |
11 | Corban Knight | C | 70 | 18 | 26 | 44 | 11 | 50 |
48 | Brett Olson | C | 75 | 17 | 27 | 44 | 8 | 38 |
41 | Chad Billins | D | 65 | 10 | 32 | 42 | 6 | 40 |
22 | Blair Jones | C | 38 | 17 | 21 | 38 | -8 | 47 |
28 | Ben Hanowski | LW | 55 | 13 | 18 | 31 | 1 | 18 |
47 | Sven Baertschi | LW | 41 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 1 | 18 |
17 | Josh Jooris | C | 73 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 0 | 67 |
27 | Derek Smith | D | 32 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 9 | 22 |
23 | Corey Locke | C | 30 | 4 | 19 | 23 | 0 | 8 |
36 | Michael Ferland | LW | 25 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -4 | 31 |
12 | Paul Byron | C | 23 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 10 | 4 | Not active on this team
44 | Kane Lafranchise | D | 34 | 0 | 13 | 13 | -1 | 2 |
34 | Carter Bancks | LW | 72 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 53 |
14 | Mark Cundari | D | 32 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -1 | 45 | Not active on this team
15 | Greg Nemisz | RW | 32 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 9 | Not active on this team
2 | Braden Lamb | D | 44 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 25 |
5 | Tyler Wotherspoon | D | 48 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 12 | Not active on this team
55 | Shane O'Brien | D | 31 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 58 |
20 | Roman Horak | C | 13 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -4 | 6 | Not active on this team
19 | Evan Trupp | C | 17 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 10 | Not active on this team
29 | Dean Arsene | D | 42 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -4 | 43 |
15 | Tim Miller | RW | 14 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
18 | Drew MacKenzie | D | 17 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 14 | Not active on this team
24 | Emile Poirier | RW | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
6 | Chris Breen | D | 41 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 29 |
8 | Zachery Davies | D | 14 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
13 | Turner Elson | LW | 37 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 | Not active on this team
3 | Brett Kulak | D | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
14 | Brendan Connolly | C | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Not active on this team
21 | Lane MacDermid | LW | 25 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 24 | Not active on this team
20 | Jordan Kremyr | RW | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
40 | Adrian Foster | C | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Not active on this team
19 | Allan McPherson | C | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | Not active on this team
39 | Kyle Ostrow | RW | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | Not active on this team
4 | Zach McKelvie | LW | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 14 | Not active on this team
35 | Joey MacDonald | G | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Not active on this team
37 | Olivier Roy* | G | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | Not active on this team
7 | John Ramage | D | 50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 46 | Not active on this team
16 | Jordan Knackstedt | RW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 5 | Not active on this team
16 | Collin Valcourt | LW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
30 | Laurent Brossoit | G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Not active on this team
33 | Doug Carr | G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 | James Martin | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Not active on this team
32 | Patrick Sieloff | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
39 | Peter Sivak | C | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | Not active on this team
10 | Morgan Klimchuk | LW | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 4 |
24 | David Eddy | RW | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 5 |
30 | Aaron Dell | G | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Not active on this team
43 | Garnet Hathaway | RW | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
33 | Reto Berra | G | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Not active on this team
46 | Trevor Gillies | LW | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
49 | Brett Lyon | LW | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 32 | Not active on this team
31 | Joni Ortio | G | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

Grand Rapids Griffins Regular Season Stats:

# | Name | Pos | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | Player Status
6 | Teemu Pulkkinen | RW | 71 | 31 | 28 | 59 | 18 | 34 |
5 | Adam Almquist | D | 73 | 4 | 49 | 53 | 9 | 56 |
18 | Cory Emmerton | C | 53 | 16 | 30 | 46 | 17 | 14 |
15 | Mitch Callahan | LW | 70 | 26 | 18 | 44 | 23 | 51 |
11 | Andrej Nestrasil | C | 70 | 16 | 20 | 36 | 0 | 24 |
12 | Calle Jarnkrok | C | 57 | 13 | 23 | 36 | 19 | 14 | Not active on this team
28 | Tomas Jurco | LW | 32 | 13 | 19 | 32 | 10 | 14 | Not active on this team
7 | Ryan Sproul | D | 72 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 0 | 49 |
29 | Landon Ferraro | RW | 70 | 15 | 16 | 31 | -3 | 52 |
10 | Jeff Hoggan | LW | 59 | 14 | 17 | 31 | 1 | 31 |
4 | Nathan Paetsch | D | 68 | 4 | 27 | 31 | 18 | 40 |
26 | David McIntyre | C | 64 | 8 | 13 | 21 | -1 | 45 |
13 | Gustav Nyquist | RW | 15 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 6 | 6 | Not active on this team
19 | Riley Sheahan | C | 31 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -2 | 12 | Not active on this team
22 | Jordin Tootoo | RW | 51 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -1 | 104 |
3 | Alexey Marchenko | D | 49 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 11 | 14 |
44 | Brennan Evans | D | 68 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 14 | 111 |
16 | Xavier Ouellet | D | 70 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 3 | 22 |
23 | Triston Grant | LW | 51 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 6 | 103 |
33 | Luke Glendening | C | 18 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 18 | Not active on this team
27 | Martin Frk | RW | 50 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -12 | 22 |
21 | Trevor Parkes | RW | 36 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 27 |
14 | Nick Jensen | D | 45 | 0 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 8 |
9 | Patrick Eaves | RW | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8 | Not active on this team
25 | Louis-Marc Aubry | C | 38 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
47 | Andreas Athanasiou | LW | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
39 | Travis Novak | F | 9 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | Not active on this team
9 | Alden Hirschfeld | F | 13 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
20 | Gleason Fournier | D | 25 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
34 | Petr Mrazek | G | 32 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
32 | Colin Campbell | F | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
31 | Jared Coreau | G | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
39 | Marek Tvrdon | LW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Not active on this team
46 | Mattias Backman | D | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
9 | Darren Helm | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Not active on this team
38 | Mattias Janmark | C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
37 | Mikael Samuelsson | RW | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | Not active on this team
42 | Richard Nedomlel | D | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
37 | Zach Nastasiuk | RW | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
30 | Tom McCollum | G | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

My Pick:

Abbotsford, because we all know Griffins don't deal well with Heat

​

 

[1989]

Bob McKenzie retweeted this on Twitter so I thought I'd post it here, just a quick AHL playoffs table.

 

[TychoFan]

Come on guys, this AHL team has half of our future! Show them that only most of our team consists of busts.

 

[DCDM]

Operation 16 Wins!

 

[Lunatik]

Operation 16 Wins!

15 wins. Round 1 is best of 5

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Take a stab at the lines?

Hopefully we get to see Reinhart/Gran/Poirier stay together
Bancks/Street/Jones (Street & Jones play well together, good vet line)
Bart/Knight/Jooris (Bart & Knight have some chemistry)
Locke/Olson/Hanowski Decent 4th

Lamb, Breen, Billins, Smith, SOB, Arsene as the 6 Dmen

Ortio & ?? Has Roy been hurt? Carr has played lately & done well.

This would leave Klimchuk, Miller, Hathaway, Gillies, Kulak, Davies, Lafranchise, Culkin & Kanzig as scratches. Am I missing anyone?
That's a lot of bodies to have around, some of these guys must be going back to Alaska - I don't even know if they are still playing......

 

[Lunatik]

My best guess.....

Max Reinhart - Markus Granlund - Emile Poirier
Sven Baertschi - Corban Knight - Brett Olson
Corey Locke - Ben Street - Blair Jones
Carter Bancks - Josh Jooris - Ben Hanowski

Shane O'Brien - Derek Smith
Chad Billins - Chris Breen
Brett Kulak/Dean Arsene/Kane LaFranchise/Zach Davies (these guys will rotate in and out IMO)

Ortio
Carr



Roy is with the Aces trying to win the ECHL Championship.

 

[Lunatik]

I have added each teams Regular season stats to the 2nd post

 

[Gritty]

I'm so excited to watch our boys make a big run! I feel pretty good about the first round!

Go Heat Go!!!

 

[Gabouch]

What's the expectation for Emile Poirier here ?

 

[Lunatik]

What's the expectation for Emile Poirier here ?

to skate fast

 

[Gabouch]

And in terms of productivity ?

Followed his careers for 4 years now

 

[Lunatik]

And in terms of productivity ?

Followed his careers for 4 years now

I can't speak for others but he has 2 pro games under his belt, I believe expecting him to produce is setting him up to fail. I just want him to play hard, be physical and not be a liability. He's only going to be playing on the top line because he is coming off a 3 point night.

 

[Anglesmith]

I don't know, AH, I feel like you may have too low expectations for Poirier. He's a first rounder one year removed from the draft. At this point I think we would expect him to be able to be effective at the AHL level.

 

[Lunatik]

I don't know, AH, I feel like you may have too low expectations for Poirier. He's a first rounder one year removed from the draft. At this point I think we would expect him to be able to be effective at the AHL level.

I think people underrate the level of competition in the AHL compared to the CHL. Baertschi was a better scorer than Poirier in junior and he is 2 years removed and he is just finally looking like a top player.

 

[InfinityIggy]

I think people underrate the level of competition in the AHL compared to the CHL. Baertschi was a better scorer than Poirier in junior and he is 2 years removed and he is just finally looking like a top player.

Poirier is the more physically strong player by a mile though. He should be able to adapt a little more quickly than an smaller guy like Bart.

 

[Anglesmith]

I think people underrate the level of competition in the AHL compared to the CHL. Baertschi was a better scorer than Poirier in junior and he is 2 years removed and he is just finally looking like a top player.

Well, the only thing I'm comparing it to is the NHL. You see guys who were drafted in 2013 making impacts at this time of year in the NHL. I know that Poirier is a level below Monahan and MacKinnon, but he's had a year to develop his game and he's doing it in the AHL.

Baertschi is only one player, and seems to be a special case due to both confidence issues and possibly how he's being told to play.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

I agree with AH on this one, some fans expect the world right away. I would be happy if he can be a regular on the roster for the PO's. This is a great learning experience for him, let him learn without big expectations.
Next year though, I'm expecting big things and possibly the big team.

 

[Anglesmith]

I agree with AH on this one, some fans expect the world right away. I would be happy if he can be a regular on the roster for the PO's. This is a great learning experience for him, let him learn without big expectations.
Next year though, I'm expecting big things and possibly the big team.

I don't expect the world. I don't expect him to be point-per-game or anything. I'm just saying I don't think he'll look out of his depth. I expect him to drive play and be able to play his game. In terms of numbers, I'd expect about .5 ppg ideally.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

That's fair, and if that line does stay intact (unlikely) he should be able to put those points up. Both Reinhart and Granlund have had fantastic years.
But if he's playing bottom 6 minutes/alternating games he's not going to be putting up points. He still will be taking a big jump in development just by being with a professional team (light years ahead of junior) during a playoff run.
I'm hoping he gets a taste of the good stuff, and with a dedicated offseason is going to push for a spot on the Flames, or at least at this point be a productive AHLer.

 

[Lunatik]

Well, the only thing I'm comparing it to is the NHL. You see guys who were drafted in 2013 making impacts at this time of year in the NHL. I know that Poirier is a level below Monahan and MacKinnon, but he's had a year to develop his game and he's doing it in the AHL.

Baertschi is only one player, and seems to be a special case due to both confidence issues and possibly how he's being told to play.

Lots of guys are drafted in the 1st round and average AHLers 2 years after being drafted. Baertschi is merely 1 example.

Poirier is new to the system with no established chemistry on the team. He is not even a year from being drafted.

To prove my point let's look at the forwards taken in the 2nd half of the 2009 draft (picked it because it will give 2 years pro after 2 years in junior) and how they have performed in the AHL (stats include reg season and playoffs)

Carter Ashton (29th)
- 1st year after draft: 1 point 11 games
- 2nd year after draft: 0 points in 2 games
- 3rd year after draft: 38 points in 63 games
- 4th year after draft: 24 points in 62 games

Phillipe Paradis (27th)
- 1st year after draft: 2 points in 4 games
- 2nd year after draft: 1 point in 4 games
- 3rd year after draft: 16 points in 58 games
- 4th year after draft: 9 points in 44 games

Kyle Palmieri (26th)
- 1st year after draft: Did not play in AHL (NCAA)
- 2nd year after draft: 51 points in 62 games
- 3rd year after draft: 58 points in 51 games
- 4th year after draft: 25 points in 22 games

Jordan Caron (25th)
- 1st year after draft: Did not play in AHL (CHL)
- 2nd year after draft: 28 points in 47 games
- 3rd year after draft: 13 points in 17 games
- 4th year after draft: 27 points in 59 games

Marcus Johansson (24th)
- 1st year after draft: Did not play in AHL (SEL)
- 2nd year after draft: 0 points in 2 games
- 3rd year after draft: Did not play in AHL (NHL)
- 4th year after draft: Did not play in AHL (NHL)

Jordan Schroeder (22nd)
- 1st year after draft: 15 points in 17 games
- 2nd year after draft: 34 points in 75 games
- 3rd year after draft: 46 points in 81 games
- 4th year after draft: 33 points in 42 games

Jacob Josefson (20th)
- 1st year after draft: Did not play in AHL (SEL)
- 2nd year after draft: 12 points in 18 games
- 3rd year after draft: 3 points in 4 games
- 4th year after draft: 25 points in 38 games

Chris Kreider (19th)
- 1st year after draft: Did not play in AHL (NCAA)
- 2nd year after draft: Did not play in AHL (NCAA)
- 3rd year after draft: Did not play in AHL (NCAA/NHL)
- 4th year after draft: 23 points in 48 games

Louis Leblanc (18th)
- 1st year after draft: Did not play in AHL (NCAA)
- 2nd year after draft: Did not play in AHL (CHL)
- 3rd year after draft: 22 points in 31 games
- 4th year after draft: 18 points in 62 games

Peter Holland (15th)
- 1st year after draft: Did not play in AHL (CHL)
- 2nd year after draft: 6 points in 3 games
- 3rd year after draft: 60 points in 71 games
- 4th year after draft: 39 points in 45 games


As you can see 11 forwards drafted from 15th to 30th, in their 1st year after being drafted they combined for 18 points in 33 games (and 15 in 17 of that was Schroeder). Players in their first year after being drafted performing well in the AHL is the exception to the rule. I would love for Poirier to have Schroeder like success for the Heat, but expecting it is unfair.

 

[Anglesmith]

Lots of guys are drafted in the 1st round and average AHLers 2 years after being drafted. Baertschi is merely 1 example.

Poirier is new to the system with no established chemistry on the team. He is not even a year from being drafted.

To prove my point let's look at the forwards taken in the 2nd half of the 2009 draft (picked it because it will give 2 years pro after 2 years in junior) and how they have performed in the AHL (stats include reg season and playoffs)

...

As you can see 11 forwards drafted from 15th to 30th, in their 1st year after being drafted they combined for 18 points in 33 games (and 15 in 17 of that was Schroeder). Players in their first year after being drafted performing well in the AHL is the exception to the rule. I would love for Poirier to have Schroeder like success for the Heat, but expecting it is unfair.

The numbers for players in their second year removed from the draft are more or less what I expect. He is not fresh out of the draft, and he's had the extra year of development. Most of those guys you posted are around or above .5 ppg after one more year of development after the draft. That's what I'm hoping for.

 

[Lunatik]

The numbers for players in their second year removed from the draft are more or less what I expect. He is not fresh out of the draft, and he's had the extra year of development. Most of those guys you posted are around or above .5 ppg after one more year of development after the draft. That's what I'm hoping for.

What are you talking about? None of those guys were fresh out of the draft, they all developed for a year after being drafted. If you think he is going to put up .5 points per game on a Troy Ward team you will be sorely disappointed. There is a reason why the franchise record is 63 points over a full season.

 

[Anglesmith]

What are you talking about? None of those guys were fresh out of the draft, they all developed for a year after being drafted. If you think he is going to put up .5 points per game on a Troy Ward team you will be sorely disappointed. There is a reason why the franchise record is 63 points over a full season.

Hmm, I think you misread my post. The fact that they all developed for a year after being drafted is what I'm also saying about Poirier. He played a full QMJHL season after being drafted, and is now in the AHL. He's had two games and now practices to learn the systems. He doesn't need to work through early season rust. I think comparing Poirier right now to guys in their second post-draft year is completely fair.