2013-14 Qualitative +/- Ratings

[nobuddy]

^EDM was 2-1 loss, not win.

 

[tarheelhockey]

That last + put Semin over 2013-EStaal for the best rating in the 3-year history of this project.

edit: fixed the Edmonton game result, thanks CMP.

This is the master list of total +/- ratings.

Forwards | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin Of Error
Drayson Bowman | 10 | 3 | +7 | -
Zach Boychuk | 4 | - | +4 | -
Patrick Dwyer | 12 | 5 | +7 | +1
Radek Dvorak | 11 | 6 | +5 | -
Nathan Gerbe | 16 | 4 | +12 | -
Elias Lindholm | 15 | 6 | +9 | -1
Manny Malhotra | 12 | 6 | +6 | -
Riley Nash | 17 | 4 | +13 | -
Tuomo Ruutu | 14 | 11 | +3 | +1
Alex Semin | 31 | 5 | +26 | -
Jeff Skinner | 22 | 13 | +9 | -
Eric Staal | 34 | 22 | +12 | -
Jordan Staal | 22 | 5 | +17 | -
Brett Sutter | 2 | 4 | -2 | -
Jiri Tlusty | 21 | 7 | +14 | +1
Kevin Westgarth | 1 | - | +1 | -

Defensemen | Plus | Minus | Total | Margin of Error
Brett Bellemore | 3 | 7 | -4 | -
Justin Faulk | 18 | 17 | +1 | -
Tim Gleason | - | 3 | -3 | -
Ron Hainsey | 10 | 14 | -4 | -
Jay Harrison | 7 | 14 | -7 | -
Mike Komisarek | - | 4 | -4 | -
John-Michael Liles | 4 | 2 | +2 | -
Ryan Murphy | 10 | 13 | -3 | -
Andrej Sekera | 22 | 14 | +8 | +1

Goaltender Errors

Player | Errors
Anton Khudobin | 5
Justin Peters | 4
Cam Ward | 3

 

[Ole Gil]

What'd Murphy do wrong there? (edmonton game). 1 on 1 against speed on an island, forces guy wide, prevents shot, and ushers him to the end boards. I'd take that defense 10 out of 10 times.

 

[tarheelhockey]

What'd Murphy do wrong there? (edmonton game). 1 on 1 against speed on an island, forces guy wide, prevents shot, and ushers him to the end boards. I'd take that defense 10 out of 10 times.

I'm not saying it was a total failure, but consider that the play began with a 50/50 puck landing directly between Murphy and Boyd Gordon. In that scenario, the defenseman's goal is to completely -- not partially -- neutralize the scoring threat.

In the event, Murphy tried to play the puck and missed; that allowed Gordon to gain a clean possession on his strong side. "Ushered" is a good way to describe what Murphy did to Gordon after that. Instead of playing the body or neutralizing Gordon's stick, he leaned into him with an awkward pseudo-poke-check that took Gordon to the boards but allowed him to retain complete control of the puck. That led to a pass directly up the middle of the slot into the most dangerous area of the ice, an outcome which is clearly unacceptable.

There was still another egregious failure behind Murphy, otherwise that pass should never have found a target. It was a tough play where he got no help, no doubt about it, but he still did a D-plus sort of job.

 

[Ole Gil]

I'm not saying it was a total failure, but consider that the play began with a 50/50 puck landing directly between Murphy and Boyd Gordon. In that scenario, the defenseman's goal is to completely -- not partially -- neutralize the scoring threat.

In the event, Murphy tried to play the puck and missed; that allowed Gordon to gain a clean possession on his strong side. "Ushered" is a good way to describe what Murphy did to Gordon after that. Instead of playing the body or neutralizing Gordon's stick, he leaned into him with an awkward pseudo-poke-check that took Gordon to the boards but allowed him to retain complete control of the puck. That led to a pass directly up the middle of the slot into the most dangerous area of the ice, an outcome which is clearly unacceptable.

There was still another egregious failure behind Murphy, otherwise that pass should never have found a target. It was a tough play where he got no help, no doubt about it, but he still did a D-plus sort of job.

If you give up a quasi-desperation centering pass from behind the net (that shouldn't be a threat) on a 1 on 1 rush, you get a D-plus? Fair enough, as it says subjective in the title. But I think your applying some rather high standards.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If you give up a quasi-desperation centering pass from behind the net (that shouldn't be a threat) on a 1 on 1 rush, you get a D-plus? Fair enough, as it says subjective in the title. But I think your applying some rather high standards.

It's a fair argument on both sides... let's give Murphy a margin of error point and call it a day.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 69 @ Columbus Blue Jackets
3/18/2014
3-1 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 3:41 Gerbe (Dwyer)
+1 Gerbe - Nice work in all three zones.
+1 Dwyer - The ever-important poking of the puck past Tyutin, who's usually quite solid on that kind of play.
+1 Loktionov - Often when a goal is scored by the puck carrier on a 2-on-1, the passing option is just an irrelevant decoy. In this case, Loktionov was playing solid positional defense when he made a critical jump into the neutral zone to beat the opposing center up ice, thus giving Gerbe the numbers and space to take that shot.

2nd 17:20 Dwyer (Loktionov, Harrison)
+1 Dwyer - Who knew he could launch a puck like this? Also, that was a savvy little touch pass at the red line.
+1 Loktionov - Much like the goal above, he played strong D all the way down to his goal crease, then flat-out hustled past CBJ's backcheckers to create odd numbers. Dubinsky in particular got caught sleeping. Smart return pass to Dwyer, then drove the net to draw the defense in. Overall a very strong shift despite barely touching the puck.
+1 Harrison - Solid outlet pass to Dwyer's tape.
+1 Hainsey - It wasn't much to look at, but he took the puck off a surprisingly weak Dubinsky and then absorbed a hit to make the safe play up to Harrison.

ES GOALS AGAINST

3rd 19:10 Jenner (Johansen, Horton)
-1 Semin - Sadly the replay on this one is cut short, but I'd love to know how he ended up THAT low on such a slow-developing, non-threatening play. In any case, it left Johansen insanely wide open at the point.
-1 Harrison - Why is he fronting the shot here? There are two CBJ forwards standing right behind him. Jenner actually pushed Harrison away from the slot, rather than the other way around. Just as the shot's released, you can even see Hainsey take a futile slap at Jenner's stick as he realizes that Harrison is paying no attention.


Totals
+2 Dwyer
+2 Loktionov
+1 Gerbe
+1 Hainsey
-1 Semin

 

[nobuddy]

I was saying all season that Sekera and Semin were our best players. Sekera was pretty obvious, but I defended Semin (along with WTF) with objectives like fancy stats, and it's good to see he had a great year on a case by case subjective basis as well.

Once again I am right in my analysis.

 

[tarheelhockey]

If you want to have some fun, look at the highlights of Semin's half-dozen or so +s on the previous page. Sometimes the guy truly does operate at a different level than the players around him.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 71 @ Winnipeg Jets
3/22/2014
3-2 Win



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 8:25 Eric Staal (Tlusty, Sekera)
+1 Tlusty - Started the breakout with a crisp pass, and beat the Jets 200 feet to generate a goal on the forecheck.
+1 Eric Staal - The goal was the easy part, but how nice was his coordination with Tlusty and Sekera on this transition?
+1 Sekera - Great job quarterbacking the rush, particularly in recognizing what both Staal and Tlusty were trying to accomplish.

2nd 11:18 Nash (Skinner, Dwyer)
+1 Nash - They can't all be pretty, but he got the job done.
+1 Skinner - The assist was ugly, in part because Nash gave him a bouncing puck to work with. Skinner did a passable job of leading a successful even-man rush from the neutral zone, which is pretty far outside his comfort zone.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 7:48 Slater (Stuart)
-1 Nash - Bad faceoff loss.
-1 Dwyer - That really ought to be a blocked shot. Dwyer took a weird angle and ended up near the boards instead of in the shooting lane. There's only so much the D and goalie can do against deflections on an unchallenged shot.

3rd 1:27 Little (Frolik)
-1 Faulk - Along with a couple of other players, he seemed genuinely lost in this play. Something about that line change was really screwed up, and it seemed like Faulk, Tlusty and Loktionov were all uncertain of their roles. All other things equal, that was a really bad turnover too, hanging his partner out to dry.
-1 Sekera - Valiant effort, but he has to get that pass if he's going to go down on a 2-on-1. Allowing a strong saucer pass to get through is forgivable, but not a weak one along the ice.


Totals
+1 Skinner
+1 Eric Staal
+1 Tlusty
-1 Dwyer
-1 Faulk

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 72 vs New York Islanders
3/25/2014
5-4 Loss



ES GOALS FOR

1st 15:06 Loktionov (Tlusty, Bellemore)
+1 Loktionov - Strong singular effort to take advantage of Hamonic's gaffe.

2nd 17:19 Gerbe (Jordan Staal, Hainsey)
+1 Jordan Staal - Good work on the boards and in puck pursuit, opening up space for Gerbe.
+1 Gerbe - Good puck support, and a heck of a shot.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 3:39 McDonald (Hickey, Strome)
-1 Eric Staal - Beaten on the faceoff.
-1 Sekera - Just plain out-muscled for the rebound.

1st 5:26 Clutterbuck (Bailey, Hamonic)
-1 Jordan Staal - Beaten on the faceoff, then lost his coverage due to falling down.
-1 Hainsey - Beaten to the inside off the draw.
-1 Liles - Had a deer-in-headlights reaction, when he should have been picking up a man in the crease.

1st 6:12 McDonald (De Haan, Hamonic)
-1 Eric Staal - That's just not good hockey sense.

1st 10:54 Martin (Czuczman, Hickey)
-1 Eric Staal - I don't know what was going on with him in this 10-minute stretch. Just sleepwalking on defense, challenging guys that were already covered and leaving others wide open in front of the goalie. Twice in 5 minutes it led to a goal against.

2nd 16:57 Martin (Strome, McDonald)
-1 Loktionov - There's a reason they say never to pursue a puck behind the net when on defense. Sekera had Strome covered; Lokti should have been covering up to the slot.
-1 Dwyer - This is the rare play where the winger has to read the broken assignments down low and take responsibility for covering the slot.
-1 Sekera - I'm not saying he made the "wrong" play here, but this play was probably covered safely if he simply maintained his mark on Martin and let the others shift around as necessary. Also, once he decided to challenge the puck carrier, Strome only had one scoring play and that was to pass it right to the spot where Sekera ended up standing. There's no point in switching assignments if he's not going to cut off that pass.

Totals
+1 Gerbe
-1 Dwyer
-1 Hainsey
-1 Liles
-2 Sekera
-3 Eric Staal

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 73 @ Florida Panthers
3/27/2014
3-0 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 9:09 Tlusty (Eric Staal, Bellemore)
+1 Tlusty - Clowned Campbell and Luongo with that fake shot.
+1 Eric Staal - Took advantage of a bum play by Kulikov.

2nd 2:30 Tlusty (Loktionov, Faulk)
+1 Faulk - Handled the puck competently on the rush.
+1 Loktionov - That's... one way to get an assist.
+1 Tlusty - Made something out of nothing with that drop pass and cut to the net.
+1 Eric Staal - This was surely not what he had in mind when he drove to the slot, but it conveniently pulled the Panthers D away so that Tlusty had exclusive access to the rebound.

2nd 5:46 Skinner (Dwyer)
+1 Dwyer - Great work to follow through on a failed breakaway and create a second-chance goal. Also, the replay cuts it short but it would seem that Dwyer created this off a blocked shot or something.
+1 Skinner - Quick hands.

ES GOALS AGAINST

none

Totals
+2 Eric Staal
+2 Tlusty
+1 Dwyer
+1 Faulk
+1 Loktionov
+1 Skinner

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 74 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
3/29/2014
3-2 OT Loss



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 16:29 Skinner (Lindholm, Nash)
+1 Nash - Outstanding job on the forecheck, beating two Jackets and making a hell of a pass from the corner. And he was the guy who started the rush, to boot.
+1 Lindholm - He came all the way from the bench looking for that spot, and could very well have scored the goal himself.
+1 Skinner - He's remarkably good at finding those pucks down near his feet and roofing them instantly.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 18:46 Calvert (unassisted)
-1 Skinner - Oof, that's an awful pass and he knew it instantly.

3rd 7:28 Anisimov (Horton, Foligno)
Goalie Error - Khudobin - Much like Skinner on the goal above, he knew instantly that he should have just covered that puck.

Totals
+1 Lindholm
+1 Nash
Error - Khudobin

 

[tarheelhockey]

With that update, Eric Staal has:

- Tied his 2013 mark for most pluses by any player in the 3-season history of the project.
- Beaten his 2012 mark for most minuses by any forward in the 3-season history of the project. The overall record is 29, by Jay Harrison in 2012.


On a related note, Sekera has already shattered the pluses record for a defenseman (McBain, 2012), and we're still waiting for a defenseman to eclipse Bobby Sanguinetti's 18 minuses in only 37 games last season.

 

[rocky7]

again, a great project. it's sure nice to be able to quickly go and watch these highlights again. I appreciate the work you put into it.

 

[Joe McGrath]

With that update, Eric Staal has:

- Tied his 2013 mark for most pluses by any player in the 3-season history of the project.
- Beaten his 2012 mark for most minuses by any forward in the 3-season history of the project. The overall record is 29, by Jay Harrison in 2012.


On a related note, Sekera has already shattered the pluses record for a defenseman (McBain, 2012), and we're still waiting for a defenseman to eclipse Bobby Sanguinetti's 18 minuses in only 37 games last season.

Someone on here was trying to claim Sanguinetti wasn't terrible and I can't remember who. Whoever you were, you were wrong, he's awful , just awful .

 

[tarheelhockey]

Someone on here was trying to claim Sanguinetti wasn't terrible and I can't remember who. Whoever you were, you were wrong, he's awful , just awful .

When you're being described as "Joe Corvo lite", it's time to maybe start thinking about a broadcasting career.

 

[nobuddy]

Game 74 vs Columbus Blue Jackets
3/29/2014
3-2 OT Loss



ES GOALS FOR

2nd 16:29 Skinner (Lindholm, Nash)
+1 Nash - Outstanding job on the forecheck, beating two Jackets and making a hell of a pass from the corner. And he was the guy who started the rush, to boot.
+1 Lindholm - He came all the way from the bench looking for that spot, and could very well have scored the goal himself.
+1 Skinner - He's remarkably good at finding those pucks down near his feet and roofing them instantly.

ES GOALS AGAINST

2nd 18:46 Calvert (unassisted)
-1 Skinner - Oof, that's an awful pass and he knew it instantly.

3rd 7:28 Anisimov (Horton, Foligno)
Goalie Error - Khudobin - Much like Skinner on the goal above, he knew instantly that he should have just covered that puck.

Totals
+1 Lindholm
+1 Nash
Error - Khudobin

Wrong game video. This was from the 3-2 Staals comeback win.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Well, from this project, it seems we've learned that we can never again blame EStaal for having NO impact on a game. If you're leading the team in subjective pluses AND minuses...

 

[DaveG]

Well, from this project, it seems we've learned that we can never again blame EStaal for having NO impact on a game. If you're leading the team in subjective pluses AND minuses...

To quote, well, myself from elsewhere:

Eric Staal. When he's on and gives a damn he can basically power his way through anything and anyone he wants to. Prettymuch the only player I've ever seen that's overpowered Chara throughout a playoff series.

When he's off or doesn't give a damn he's soft and his slack level is seemingly on par with Pavel ****ing Brendl.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Wrong game video. This was from the 3-2 Staals comeback win.

My only defense is that the January game was more fun to watch fixed

 

[nobuddy]

My only defense is that the January game was more fun to watch fixed

Lol yeah I can't say I blame you.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 75 @ Ottawa Senators
3/31/2014
2-1 SO Loss



ES GOALS FOR
1st 4:03 Skinner (unassisted)
+1 Skinner - Obligatory joke about Karlsson playing defense.
+1 Lindholm - Nice job on the forecheck. The replay highlights it better than the live shot.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 1:41 Zibanejad (Wiercioch, Hemsky)
-1 Faulk - A nightmarish shift, getting beaten every which way by Hemsky and ending up on top of his own goalie.
-1 Skinner - Even if he's covering for the center, there's no sense at all in the LW drifting all the way into the right-side faceoff circle. Wiercioch had time to make a sandwich before taking that shot.

Totals
+1 Lindholm
-1 Faulk

 

[tarheelhockey]

Game 76 @ Pittsburgh Penguins
4/1/2014
4-1 Win



ES GOALS FOR

1st 14:39 Faulk (unassisted)
+1 Faulk - Bomb of a shot.
+1 Sekera - Pinched very effectively to create panic in the Pens' breakout.
+1 Malhotra - A very subtle stick-lift on Jokinen prevented Maatta's pass from finding the mark, which put Bennett in an awkward position of having to wait for the slow-roller to get to him. That opened the window for Sekera.
+1 Skinner - Decent job harassing Maatta, and his presence seemed to affect Jokinen's pass.

2nd 14:57 Lindholm (Skinner)
+1 Lindholm - Solid job working together with Skinner on the forecheck.
+1 Skinner - Likewise, solid job helping Lindholm trap the puck carrier and transition to a scoring chance.

3rd 11:47 Eric Staal (Loktionov)
+1 Terry - Got in on the forecheck just fast enough to bother Engelland into a bad pass.
+1 Eric Staal - He also influenced Engelland's handling of that weird bounce, and then just went to the net at the right time.
+1 Loktionov - Kind of a blind shot, but good things happen when you put it at the net.

ES GOALS AGAINST

1st 9:01 Kunitz (Stempniak, Crosby)
-1 Hainsey - That errant entry pass has to be cleared or at least controlled, especially when head-to-head with Crosby.
-1 Terry - Likewise, that puck up the boards presents an opportunity to at least slow down the attack. A weak effort won't get it done.

Totals
+2 Skinner
+1 Faulk
+1 Lindholm
+1 Loktionov
+1 Malhotra
+1 Sekera
+1 Eric Staal
-1 Hainsey

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Looks like you've repeated yourself there.