smoke meat pete*
Guest
I'm posting this thread, because of soooo many people completely misunderstanding the draft lottery coming out of the lock-out in 2005. People somehow equate Pitt being lousy in 2003-2004 with why they won the lottery in 2005. It is a very small portion of the reason why they won the lottery. Mostly they won the lottery because they got very very lucky.
Pens, Ranger, Blue Jackets and Sabres had a 3 in 48 (6%) chance of being the winning ball.
The teams with 2 balls had a 2 in 48 chance which is about 4%.
So if they did have a lockout for the full season and they did use the same formula, the Leafs would have a 6% chance of drafting 1st overall, with the odds gradually improving each time they don't win that selection.
Three balls
Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh Penguins
Two balls
Mighty Ducks of Anaheim, Atlanta Thrashers, Calgary Flames, Carolina Hurricanes, Chicago Blackhawks, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings, Minnesota Wild, Nashville Predators, Phoenix Coyotes
One ball
Boston Bruins, Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks, St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks, Washington Capitals
Pens, Ranger, Blue Jackets and Sabres had a 3 in 48 (6%) chance of being the winning ball.
The teams with 2 balls had a 2 in 48 chance which is about 4%.
So if they did have a lockout for the full season and they did use the same formula, the Leafs would have a 6% chance of drafting 1st overall, with the odds gradually improving each time they don't win that selection.