13-14 Prospects Thread Version XX: Connor Brown - 55GP 110P

[gabeliscious]

That Gauthier is projected as a match up center in the NHL shouldn't mean bad numbers in juniors. That isn't how it works. Look at just about every substantial defensive forward in the NHL and notice how much offense and skill the player exhibited at lower levels. Gauthier's numbers are a bad sign. If he doesn't have the skill to score points in QMJHL then that often translates to the inability to make basic plays at the higher tempo pro level.

Still Gauthier looks good on those isolation scouting videos. He's an agile skater, uses his size and appears to be constantly thinking about his position on the ice. Could he be a new type of player? The center equivalent of a "stay at home" defenseman?

lol, thats called mclemment.

i think the issue with the gauthier pick is that there were no sure fire guys in that range. considering the lack of top end talent many would prefer nonis have gone after a guy who is boom/bust because if he panned out it would be something we need desperately. you cant say definitively that gauthier wont become something more then he is in jr but it is looking doubtful. i try to reserve judgement because you never know. people *****ed about the kadri pick at the time as well and also the rielly pick. it seems to be common practice for people here to know better then leafs management/scouting.

 

[TheJet11]

Gauthier was probably the safest pick in that range. He could be a number 2 center, if everything clicks for him. But he will very likely be a at least a 4th line, Penalty killing centerman - with enough upside that you could see him as a good #3 C on most teams.

If Gauthier turns out to be better than McClement, then great. You obviously would like to see more out of a first-rounder, but it'd be better than him being a complete bust.

THIS year, I hope that we draft the player with the most elite offensive abilities. Depending where we end up drafting, I'd be ok with a guy like Josh Ho-Sang in the latter half of the first round.

I'd also be over the moon if we could trade up to grab Bennett, or maybe McCann.

Bennett would be unreal in the blue and white!

 

[TheCLAM]

How the hell did a guy that never managed to put up a PPG in juniors find himself playing in the NHL at 18 and now, at 23, situate himself on the top line for the avalanche?

The Ryan O'Reilly comparison isn't exactly a good one. O'Reilly always had hype behind him even before his OHL career started with Huron-Perth Lakers. He played one season with the Toronto Junior Canadiens having huge scoring numbers attributed with defensive play.

The Erie Otters Hockey Club announced this evening that they will select Ryan O'Reilly of the Toronto Jr. Canadiens with the first pick in the 2007 OHL Priority Selection.

2007-08 - O'Reilly put up 52 points as a 16/17 year old
2008-09 - O'Reilly played on a weak Erie squad managing a team high 66 points as a 17/18 year old

If O'Reilly played his 3rd/4th seasons in the OHL I guarantee he would of surpassed both marks. This is a case where looking at a kid's junior stats doesn't always do him justice. There are many outliers to decreased point production including, quality of players, TOI, organizational management etc. In the junior ranks 19-21 year olds have a clear cut advantage in strength over kids 16-17. He made the jump to the NHL as an 18/19 year old kid. He has never been doubted for his skill and quality of play. The knock on O'Reilly was to always gain more strength/weight in order to compete with his stature.

Now at 23 years old, he finally has gained the necessary strength and adjusted to the NHL style of play. Gauthier as a comparison is a far different player and a terrible example.

 

[Patience]

Not really true. If you look at last year's Selke voting, there are a lot of players that were putting up similar points at 18 years old in junior.

2012-2013 Frank J Selke Trophy Voting

#|Player|Team|Pts.|1st|2nd|3rd|4th|5th
1|Toews Jonathan|CHI|1260|75|51|20|16|5
2|Bergeron Patrice|BOS|1250|78|44|24|12|6
3|Datsyuk Pavel|DET|737|8|37|58|31|15
4|Kopitar Anze|LA|266|4|7|19|25|7
5|Backes David|STL|240|3|10|12|17|29
6|McClement Jay|TOR|142|4|2|7|13|14
7|Dupuis Pascal|PIT|111|4|3|5|6|7
8|Callahan Ryan|NYR|101|1|3|6|8|16
9|Stepan Derek|NYR|98|1|2|5|14|7
10|Hossa Marian|CHI|78|1|4|3|4|13
11|Nielsen Frans|NYI|46|0|4|1|3|4
12|Gordon Boyd|PHO|32|0|2|1|2|7
13|Kunitz Chris|PIT|26|0|1|3|1|1
14|Zetterberg Henrik|DET|23|0|1|3|0|1
15|Crosby Sidney|PIT|21|0|1|2|1|1
16|Staal Eric|CAR|19|0|0|1|2|8
17|Koivu Mikko|MIN|17|0|1|1|1|2
18|Getzlaf Ryan|ANA|16|0|0|1|3|2
19|Couture Logan|SJ|14|0|0|1|1|6
20|Ladd Andrew|WPG|13|0|1|0|1|3
21|Duchene Matt|COL|13|0|0|2|1|0
22|Burrows Alex|VAN|9|0|0|0|2|3
23|Backstrom Nicklas|WAS|8|0|1|0|0|1
24|Sedin Henrik|VAN|8|0|0|0|2|2
25|Frolik Michael|CHI|7|0|1|0|0|0
|Henrique Adam|NJ|7|0|1|0|0|0
|Kane Patrick|CHI|7|0|1|0|0|0
|Tavares John|NYI|7|0|1|0|0|0
29|Staal Jordan|CAR|7|0|0|1|0|2
30|Kruger Marcus|CHI|6|0|0|1|0|1
31|Little Bryan|WPG|6|0|0|0|2|0
|Pominville Jason|MIN|6|0|0|0|2|0
33|O'Reilly Ryan|COL|5|0|0|1|0|0
|Prust Brandon|MTL|5|0|0|1|0|0
35|Koivu Saku|ANA|4|0|0|0|1|1
|Talbot Maxime|PHI|4|0|0|0|1|1
|Tlusty Jiri|CAR|4|0|0|0|1|1
38|Fedotenko Ruslan|PHI|3|0|0|0|1|0
|Kadri Nazem|TOR|3|0|0|0|1|0
|Kovalchuk Ilya|NJ|3|0|0|0|1|0
|Richards Mike|LA|3|0|0|0|1|0
|Seguin Tyler|BOS|3|0|0|0|1|0
43|Bozak Tyler|TOR|2|0|0|0|0|2
|Marchand Brad|BOS|2|0|0|0|0|2
45|Fehr Eric|WAS|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Johansen Ryan|CLB|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Ott Steve|BUF|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Paille Daniel|BOS|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Parise Zach|MIN|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Pavelski Joe|SJ|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Stoll Jarret|LA|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Thompson Nate|TB|1|0|0|0|0|1
|Thornton Joe|SJ|1|0|0|0|0|1

I don't see what you're saying at all:


I guess you're only comparing him to the undrafted Pascal Dupuis because every one of the other players had better junior seasons at 18 than Frederik Gauthier or can't be compared because they were in European pro leagues or the NHL.

 

[theIceWookie]

I don't see what you're saying at all:


I guess you're only comparing him to the undrafted Pascal Dupuis because every one of the other players had better junior seasons at 18 than Frederik Gauthier or can't be compared because they were in European pro leagues or the NHL.

McClement didn't.

Ladd didn't.

And Ladd is a pretty damn good comparable player. Similar circumstances, only one season before being drafted. Struggled in his second season.

 

[Patience]

McClement didn't.

Ladd didn't.

And Ladd is a pretty damn good comparable player. Similar circumstances, only one season before being drafted. Struggled in his second season.

Jay McClement had a better season than Gauthier. Pro-rated to 61 games, here's the comparison:

McClement: 26 goals 29 assists 55 points
Gauthier: 12 goals 40 assists 52 points

It may turn out that Frederik Gauthier has a similar reason we don't know about but Ladd played with a messed up shoulder in that bad 2nd junior season.

 

[Mach85]

Gauthier's projection as a third-liner is no different than a large number of late first-rounders. At that point in the draft, the sure things are off the board, and you can either go for the home run pick or take the safer bet. The Leafs chose the latter, probably partly due to need (see game 7 vs the Bruins) and partly because of shallow overall prospect depth. With the cupboard no longer so empty, they're in a better position to take the boom or bust pick this year.

I get people's frustration that they didn't take a higher upside player, but that's the choice the organization made, and is a common and perfectly valid one. It's pointless to continually harp on Gauthier, wishing he was something he's not. The choice was made, so lets move on and just let the kid develop. It's pretty damn annoying seeing the same argument in this thread every fricking week.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I don't see what you're saying at all:


I guess you're only comparing him to the undrafted Pascal Dupuis because every one of the other players had better junior seasons at 18 than Frederik Gauthier or can't be compared because they were in European pro leagues or the NHL.

Several of them were putting up around the PPG mark or slightly less. I'm assuming no one is silly enough to include the guys that were offensive powerhouses already.

37 in 39
55 in 61
20 in 28
54 in 60
33 in 40

Some are NCAA. Some are junior. Suffice to say, no one is or was expecting Toews, Bergeron, Crosby etc numbers out of an 18 year old Gauthier.

 

[Eyedea]

Now at 23 years old, he finally has gained the necessary strength and adjusted to the NHL style of play. Gauthier as a comparison is a far different player and a terrible example.

Where did I compare them? The fact that he didn't score at a point per game pace should mean that he wasn't a good prospect though, right? I think people often forget that this is just Gauthier's second year in junior hockey.

 

[Patience]

lol, thats called mclemment.

i think the issue with the gauthier pick is that there were no sure fire guys in that range. considering the lack of top end talent many would prefer nonis have gone after a guy who is boom/bust because if he panned out it would be something we need desperately. you cant say definitively that gauthier wont become something more then he is in jr but it is looking doubtful. i try to reserve judgement because you never know. people *****ed about the kadri pick at the time as well and also the rielly pick. it seems to be common practice for people here to know better then leafs management/scouting.

It could be much worse than him becoming a bigger Jay McClement. The Leafs went several seasons as non-playoff team without a player like McClement enhancing the PK and playing high energy hard minutes. I don't think it's a complete coincidence that the team has been better with him in the lineup in place of less effective 4th line slugs like Boyce, Steckel, Sjostrom, Brad May, Hollweg, Devereaux, etc.

 

[Patience]

Several of them were putting up around the PPG mark or slightly less. I'm assuming no one is silly enough to include the guys that were offensive powerhouses already.

37 in 39
55 in 61
20 in 28
54 in 60
33 in 40

Some are NCAA. Some are junior. Suffice to say, no one is or was expecting Toews, Bergeron, Crosby etc numbers out of an 18 year old Gauthier.

C'mon, you're comparing points put up in the NCAA by an 18 year old to the QMJHL and not even naming the players? 0.9 PPG is a great season for an 18 year old in the NCAA. There are only 2 examples in that list, Dupuis and Ladd (as another poster mentioned). That isn't a "lot".

 

[Stringer Bell]

I know Ryan Rupert has always been regarded as the better player and prospect, but Matt Rupert has outscored him considerably this year. I'm guessing it's partly due to line mates. Just weird to see.

 

[TheCLAM]

Where did I compare them? The fact that he didn't score at a point per game pace should mean that he wasn't a good prospect though, right? I think people often forget that this is just Gauthier's second year in junior hockey.

You used Ryan O'Reilly as an example of not judging players by being a PPG in the OHL. Gauthier does not have the scoring track record nor the tools to put up high numbers at an NHL calibre level. The kid is okay offensively in the junior ranks, and has exceptional defensive abilities. Personally I don't see him translating into anything more than a third-line center.

 

[TheCLAM]

Several of them were putting up around the PPG mark or slightly less. I'm assuming no one is silly enough to include the guys that were offensive powerhouses already.

37 in 39
55 in 61
20 in 28
54 in 60
33 in 40

Some are NCAA. Some are junior. Suffice to say, no one is or was expecting Toews, Bergeron, Crosby etc numbers out of an 18 year old Gauthier.

There's a big different in leagues especially to consider PPG in the NCAA compared to the OHL. The NCAA is a way harder league to put up PPG totals.

 

[Center Ice Scrum*]

Connor "The Bust" Brown with 1 G and 1 A yesterday. Up to 109 points and 40 goals this year in 54 games! Kid has slowed down considerably offensively but is still playing well, just needs to catch a few breaks.

 

[HockeyNightInBelfast]

There's plenty to be optimistic about when it comes to Leafs prospects, Conor Brown included. The talent pool will really start to come to fruition over the next 2 seasons.

It's pretty exciting to think that of the current group of Marlies, MacWilliam, Percy, Grannberg, Biggs, Lievo are all enjoying their first seasons of pro, with the likes of Finn, Brown, Knodel, Rupert, Nilsson & Loov set to join poss next year, pending over-age/another season in Europe decisions.

This is exactly what we need - this steady stream of younger talent pushing for jobs & making some of our established players tradable/expendable commodities.

in particular, our young D-men, when they're ready & start this push, it will really allow us to deal from a position of organisational depth.

These situations take time to develop & it started w/ our 2009 draft w/ Kadri & arguably our ability to rob Philly w/ the Schenn deal.

Hope that we can start drafting/developing a few more offensive stalwarts as well i.e.) KEEP some of those 2nd round picks!!!!!


Of course, we could just go ALL-IN for the McDavid pick next year eh…?

 

[91Stammer*]

There's plenty to be optimistic about when it comes to Leafs prospects, Conor Brown included. The talent pool will really start to come to fruition over the next 2 seasons.

It's pretty exciting to think that of the current group of Marlies, MacWilliam, Percy, Grannberg, Biggs, Lievo are all enjoying their first seasons of pro, with the likes of Finn, Brown, Knodel, Rupert, Nilsson & Loov set to join poss next year, pending over-age/another season in Europe decisions.

This is exactly what we need - this steady stream of younger talent pushing for jobs & making some of our established players tradable/expendable commodities.

in particular, our young D-men, when they're ready & start this push, it will really allow us to deal from a position of organisational depth.

These situations take time to develop & it started w/ our 2009 draft w/ Kadri & arguably our ability to rob Philly w/ the Schenn deal.

Hope that we can start drafting/developing a few more offensive stalwarts as well i.e.) KEEP some of those 2nd round picks!!!!!


Of course, we could just go ALL-IN for the McDavid pick next year eh…?

I agree we need strong prospect pool. I don't mind dealing Kadri, Gardiner, Reimer or 1st for a sure thing from NYI, EDM or WPG. I don't wanna trade draft picks for nothing. Our recent deals are insane.

We acquired Bolland, Holland, Bernier all for 2nd and a guy who we weren't using. If we find deals like this I'm all in for doing that, since I don't have patience to watch guys like Gauthier, Biggs taking 3-4 years to develop. I will be happy with getting guys like Holland more than project Gauthier or project Biggs.

 

[Northernguy10]

Gauthier's projection as a third-liner is no different than a large number of late first-rounders. At that point in the draft, the sure things are off the board, and you can either go for the home run pick or take the safer bet. The Leafs chose the latter, probably partly due to need (see game 7 vs the Bruins) and partly because of shallow overall prospect depth. With the cupboard no longer so empty, they're in a better position to take the boom or bust pick this year.

I get people's frustration that they didn't take a higher upside player, but that's the choice the organization made, and is a common and perfectly valid one. It's pointless to continually harp on Gauthier, wishing he was something he's not. The choice was made, so lets move on and just let the kid develop. It's pretty damn annoying seeing the same argument in this thread every fricking week.

... Yep....but there are many people who wouldn't post here if it wasn't negative.Worse still it's hard to believe some are Leafs fans as they'd rather be right about a playerprospect than have a player that is in their organization actually do well...As with all draft picks,time will tell.I didn't like the pick either but once he was drafted , I am pulling for the kid.We eat our own it seems( see Kadri and Reimer just to name two) instead of hoping they turn out well.

 

[HockeyNightInBelfast]

I know Ryan Rupert has always been regarded as the better player and prospect, but Matt Rupert has outscored him considerably this year. I'm guessing it's partly due to line mates. Just weird to see.

Ryan looks set to surpass Ross on the prospect depth chart if Brad doesn't get it going soon.

Anyone know what's happened w/ our former 2nd rounder this year?

Last year was tough w/ lockout etc & getting a chance to play but he, like a good few of our prospects on the front-end don't appear to have exactly flourished under Steve Spott.

Is Ross simply an unmotivated problem child or suffering from a lack of …..?

 

[HeroNtF]

I thinl ross will just need 2/3 years to put on muscle. He needs to get bigger to play his game effectively against men. Set it and forget it, come back in a couple years.

 

[Duffman955]

I thinl ross will just need 2/3 years to put on muscle. He needs to get bigger to play his game effectively against men. Set it and forget it, come back in a couple years.

Ross's potential is a worse version of Komarov.

 

[The Magic Man]

Ryan looks set to surpass Ross on the prospect depth chart if Brad doesn't get it going soon.

Anyone know what's happened w/ our former 2nd rounder this year?

Last year was tough w/ lockout etc & getting a chance to play but he, like a good few of our prospects on the front-end don't appear to have exactly flourished under Steve Spott.

Is Ross simply an unmotivated problem child or suffering from a lack of …..?

He'll have to perform at a decent pace in the AHL to pass Ross. BR had a great Jr career, far better then the Ruperts.

 

[Quares27]

I know Ryan Rupert has always been regarded as the better player and prospect, but Matt Rupert has outscored him considerably this year. I'm guessing it's partly due to line mates. Just weird to see.

I thought Matt was considered the better player? Ryan is just much more physical and much more of a pest. He's like Rinaldo if Rinaldo could actually play hockey.

 

[KRM]

Johnson playing in J20 at the moment, have recovered from his injury.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Here's something interesting for folks that remember a former prospect of ours, QMJHL developed Philippe Paradis. Still hasn't played one NHL game yet. 27th overall pick traded for Tlusty.