Player Discussion #10 Jonathan Huberdeau

[Anglesmith]

You act like they all didn't have legitimate reasons for being whipping boys. Kadri literally quit on Sutter and played like he didn't give a f***. Huberdeau's contract doesn't match his talent and it never will. Hanifin is still the same vanilla defenseman who's playing better in his contract year and Markstrom shit the bed last season almost every game by letting in the first shot.

Their 20 game pace does not change who they are as players.

The Markstrom stuff is such BS.

Almost every first shot goal last season was because the defence was sleeping on coverage early in the game and allowed an odd-man rush or uncontested shot from the slot.

I would really love for there to be a supercut of every goal scored on Markstrom last year. It would be an absolute comedic spectacle of defensive play. The Flames maintained decent possession, but when they broke down they broke down hard. His numbers reflected that. It was obvious to those not stat-watching that he was going to bounce back once the team removed their heads from their asses, and here we are.

 

[Backlund]

The Markstrom stuff is such BS.

Almost every first shot goal last season was because the defence was sleeping on coverage early in the game and allowed an odd-man rush or uncontested shot from the slot.

I would really love for there to be a supercut of every goal scored on Markstrom last year. It would be an absolute comedic spectacle of defensive play. The Flames maintained decent possession, but when they broke down they broke down hard. His numbers reflected that. It was obvious to those not stat-watching that he was going to bounce back once the team removed their heads from their asses, and here we are.

I agree there was a lot of bad defending but there were also a lot of shots that shouldn't have went in. The bad defense has still been a factor at parts of this season, the bad goals are less though.

 

[User1996]

He's a whipping boy for being vanilla and inconsistent at times. That really isn't something that will change no matter where he goes. I agree with him being the best this year and I never hated him before that but I also never thought he was a #1 despite his draft pedigree. Him being slotted properly fixes most of the problems people have with him.

I don’t know what the whippers would want from him? Like he’s a .5 ppg defenceman who played the toughest defensive minutes on the team with Tanev. If that’s vanilla, I’ll take vanilla any day of the week.

 

[Felidae]

The team just needs more skill and finishing ability at the top of the lineup. The guy is arguably the purest playmaker in the league, so in a way, he absolutely is a "complementary piece" but that's what playmakers are in the truest sense.

He's currently playing with a second/third line winger as his center, and an AHL tweener at the moment, and he's still looks dynamic. If he were on a roster like Colorado, Tampa, or Vancouver for example he is easily still a 90+ point guy in my opinion. He leads this team in PP points with 10.. to put that in perspective Nikita Kucherov has 41. Even during that 12 game stretch in December when he was somehow pointless he still led the entire forward group in on ice scoring chances and high danger looks at five on five.. He has been playing well for a long time.

I mean, I don't necessarily think he needs or would work better with top line quality players. His regular linemates in Florida were Duclair and Bennett (when he had his career year) Certainly skilled.. but have spent the majority of their careers on 2nd lines. So not too different than Sharangovich in that regard, who has probably been Huberdeau's most successful linemate in Calgary.



Lindholm and Kadri are better players than all 3 of them, or at least have been throughout their careers, and look how that worked out.

Also yeah, I never thought he played bad with Backlund or Coleman. That's probably the hardest I've seen him work on the flames, and they did start off hot. But based off my eye test I don't think his playmaking was as on point as it has been since the new year. I didn't realize the advanced stats favoured him so much in December, but how much of that was impacted by Coleman and Backlund's hotstreak?

 

[HighLifeMan]

I mean, I don't necessarily think he needs or would work better with top line quality players. His regular linemates in Florida were Duclair and Bennett (when he had his career year) Certainly skilled.. but have spent the majority of their careers on 2nd lines. So not too different than Sharangovich in that regard, who has probably been Huberdeau's most successful linemate in Calgary.

I think this team absolutely needs more talent around him especially on the PP which is where the most glaring drop off in his production has come. He still played over 500 minutes with Barkov and 450 with Reinhart that year. At five on five, I would agree, I think Sharangovich, Kuzmenko or even Coronato could be a long term fit (on the wing) but to be productive they definitely need a center who they can click with stylistically. I think one more high end offensive piece would really slot this roster more appropriately up front, but that's obviously a big ask and tough to come by. Hell even a PP QB would go a long ways to.

 

[Yepthatsme]

You act like they all didn't have legitimate reasons for being whipping boys. Kadri literally quit on Sutter and played like he didn't give a f***. Huberdeau's contract doesn't match his talent and it never will. Hanifin is still the same vanilla defenseman who's playing better in his contract year and Markstrom shit the bed last season almost every game by letting in the first shot.

Their 20 game pace does not change who they are as players.

Eloquently written as someone who is actively rooting against them. Thanks for providing the example in case someone wasn’t around last year.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Now that there’s no more pressure to make the playoffs this season, I would consider acquiring Duclair at the deadline.

I rolled my eyes at those suggestions before but it could be an interesting audition now that there are zero stakes

As long as the cost is like a 2026 3rd and Joni Jurmo, I'm okay with it.

 

[super6646]

The Markstrom stuff is such BS.

Almost every first shot goal last season was because the defence was sleeping on coverage early in the game and allowed an odd-man rush or uncontested shot from the slot.

I would really love for there to be a supercut of every goal scored on Markstrom last year. It would be an absolute comedic spectacle of defensive play. The Flames maintained decent possession, but when they broke down they broke down hard. His numbers reflected that. It was obvious to those not stat-watching that he was going to bounce back once the team removed their heads from their asses, and here we are.

Everyone here watched the games lol. It’s not stat watching just because of a difference of opinion about a subjective standard.

His play has been noticeably… noticeably better since December. The defence did not magically fix itself on December 18 2023 imo.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

The Markstrom stuff is such BS.

Almost every first shot goal last season was because the defence was sleeping on coverage early in the game and allowed an odd-man rush or uncontested shot from the slot.

I would really love for there to be a supercut of every goal scored on Markstrom last year. It would be an absolute comedic spectacle of defensive play. The Flames maintained decent possession, but when they broke down they broke down hard. His numbers reflected that. It was obvious to those not stat-watching that he was going to bounce back once the team removed their heads from their asses, and here we are.

He was in the 50s in GSAA and adjusted SV%.

He’s first this year in GSAA and near the top in adjusted SV%… the Flames actually give up significantly more scoring chances this year.

He was terrible last year…By his own admission. He averaged about 1 bad goal per game. He’s been outstanding this year.

I challenge you to make that tape cause he was horrible.

 

[super6646]

He was in the 50s in GSAA and adjusted SV%.

He’s first this year in GSAA and near the top in adjusted SV%… the Flames actually give up significantly more scoring chances this year.

He was terrible last year…By his own admission. He averaged about 1 bad goal per game. He’s been outstanding this year.

I challenge you to make that tape cause he was horrible.

It’s subjective. I mean, I’m sure angle absolutely believes what he is saying, but one set of eyes is not going to reflect objective reality in and of itself. It’s incredibly easy to fall into confirmation bias.

 

[Anglesmith]

He was in the 50s in GSAA and adjusted SV%.

He’s first this year in GSAA and near the top in adjusted SV%… the Flames actually give up significantly more scoring chances this year.

This really isn't a coincidence. When you look at the goals going in, and then you see the advanced stats, you start to see the flaws in the model. The model assumes league-average treatment of each scoring attempt by the defending team. It assumes that each shot from each location is at a danger level based on the ensemble average of shots like that league-wide. And it provides statistical outcomes based on a normal volume of shots. The Flames were extremely atypical in each of these last year, which led to the very abnormal outcomes by a goalie who, based on track record and eyeball test, is very good.

And this started in the Oilers series prior to last year. The Flames allowed McDavid to drive to the net alone or in an odd-man rush several times a game, and Markstrom got blamed (he had one bad game in Game 1, but the breakdowns were by far the bigger issue the rest of the way).

He was terrible last year…By his own admission. He averaged about 1 bad goal per game. He’s been outstanding this year.

He absolutely did not.

Fans complained about him having bad goals every night, but by and large it was because he'd allowed 3 goals on 12 shots part-way through the second, which means bad goalie stats, which means (of course) that the goals must have been bad. The analysis was informed by the conclusion as opposed to the other way around. People would literally be challenged about making statements criticizing Markstrom and say things like "sure, none of the goals are bad goals per se, but you can't have XXX SV% and expect to win."

There have been very few players that I can remember who have had poor statistical output while the team was losing and done anything other than take accountability publicly. The ones who don't do this get eaten alive (JT Miller last year comes to mind... Roberto Luongo at one point I think made a comment about doing his job which was then accused of throwing his team under the bus). I do think on a level players are pretty ruthless with themselves and I doubt that most players would actually recognize positives in their play if the results aren't there. So while "Markstrom even said so" has become a popular refrain, I don't think it holds much water.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

This really isn't a coincidence. When you look at the goals going in, and then you see the advanced stats, you start to see the flaws in the model. The model assumes league-average treatment of each scoring attempt by the defending team. It assumes that each shot from each location is at a danger level based on the ensemble average of shots like that league-wide. And it provides statistical outcomes based on a normal volume of shots. The Flames were extremely atypical in each of these last year, which led to the very abnormal outcomes by a goalie who, based on track record and eyeball test, is very good.

And this started in the Oilers series prior to last year. The Flames allowed McDavid to drive to the net alone or in an odd-man rush several times a game, and Markstrom got blamed (he had one bad game in Game 1, but the breakdowns were by far the bigger issue the rest of the way).



He absolutely did not.

Fans complained about him having bad goals every night, but by and large it was because he'd allowed 3 goals on 12 shots part-way through the second, which means bad goalie stats, which means (of course) that the goals must have been bad. The analysis was informed by the conclusion as opposed to the other way around. People would literally be challenged about making statements criticizing Markstrom and say things like "sure, none of the goals are bad goals per se, but you can't have XXX SV% and expect to win."

There have been very few players that I can remember who have had poor statistical output while the team was losing and done anything other than take accountability publicly. The ones who don't do this get eaten alive (JT Miller last year comes to mind... Roberto Luongo at one point I think made a comment about doing his job which was then accused of throwing his team under the bus). I do think on a level players are pretty ruthless with themselves and I doubt that most players would actually recognize positives in their play if the results aren't there. So while "Markstrom even said so" has become a popular refrain, I don't think it holds much water.

To me, last year he let in about 50 bad goals. This year about 10. That’s a difference of about 40 goals. Coincidentally enough he’s let in about a difference of 40 expected goals from this year to last.

The Flames did have more breakdowns last year where the goalie has no chance. But they also give up a much higher percentage of high danger chances this year. He’s also made a lot more big saves this year.