OT: Zone Entries of Timonen/Coburn

sc78258

Registered User
Jun 30, 2009
68
0
Pretty interesting article on how advanced stats are slowly making their way into NHL analysis:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-people-pushing-the-nhl-into-the-advanced-stats-era/

With 17:25 left to go in the first period of a December National Hockey League game between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Edmonton Oilers, the Oilers gathered the puck in their defensive end and passed it ahead to Jordan Eberle, who was headed up the left side of the ice. The Flyers’ defensemen — Kimmo Timonen and Braydon Coburn — were well positioned, but Eberle decided to challenge them. He cut diagonally across the ice towards Timonen, drove wide to the far boards, put on a burst of speed and beat Timonen to enter the offensive zone.
 
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Fire Tortorella

Formerly Flyersfan1406
Apr 2, 2010
10,262
5,832
PA
I know this isn't written by him, but 538.com is Nate Silver's website, who's regarded as one of the best statisticians there is. Anything written on the site is well worth a read.
 

Random Forest

Registered User
May 12, 2010
14,440
945
Now this is the kind of stuff that is going to change the way we perceive the game. Corsi is good at indicating things and pointing you in the right direction, but these tracking stats are exactly what we want to be looking at.

As an aside, this is what makes pro scouts more than just amateur fans being paid for watching players. This is the kind of stuff they're looking at when watching the game.


This is also why people who rail on Coburn are out of their minds. Also why I can't wait to see Morin in the NHL. Being able to deny zone entries depend on two attributes: size and mobility. Those who have both are excellent at keeping danger on the rush to a minimum.
 

sg12lw

Registered User
Aug 22, 2008
959
0
Now this is the kind of stuff that is going to change the way we perceive the game. Corsi is good at indicating things and pointing you in the right direction, but these tracking stats are exactly what we want to be looking at.

As an aside, this is what makes pro scouts more than just amateur fans being paid for watching players. This is the kind of stuff they're looking at when watching the game.


This is also why people who rail on Coburn are out of their minds. Also why I can't wait to see Morin in the NHL. Being able to deny zone entries depend on two attributes: size and mobility. Those who have both are excellent at keeping danger on the rush to a minimum.

backcheckers help a lot too.

didn't read the entire article word for word, but does it take into account the other players on the ice is these zone entry situations? doubt it.

willing to bet that when read/raffl/couts are on the ice the teams have to dump it 5 times more often then when 10/40/17 are on the ice. that line gives up an odd man rush every time they are out there. being able to carry the puck in the zone has just as much to do with the back pressure as it does the defensemen.

I get what the point they are trying to get across, but advanced stats don't, and never will tell the whole story.

and it shouldnt take advanced stats for anyone to realize that its harder to skate the puck in on coburn than kimmo.....been that way for years. any big guy that can skate is hard to play against, especially on the rush. where coburn struggles is after the puck is dumped in... which is why this is misleading, "Coburn has clearly been the player helping the Flyers obtain possession at the defensive end. "
 

BillDineen

Former Flyer / Extinct Dinosaur Advisor
Aug 9, 2009
9,352
8,049
I would like to see chips for better data. During soccer matches they always show team's % possession. It is obviously easier to track, but I wish the technology was in place. Then imperfect proxies for possession like Corsi wouldn't be needed in possession discussions.

A chip in the puck could give data on whether a blocked shot was going on net or wide, only count shots exceeding X mph, only gives players within X distance of the shot that led to a goal credit, etc. which could all be useful to statisticians.

A chip in the sticks sounds decent, but they are dropped, given to other players on the ice, etc. which would need to be manually cleaned up.
 

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