Zib vs Pettersson

Who’d you pick in general


  • Total voters
    162

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
24,545
13,841
Vancouver
Because it suggests Pettersson is better defensively than Zibanejad, which anybody who’s watched much of both players would clearly see isn’t true.

Or maybe Zibanejad just makes more noticeable defensive plays while not actually being more effective
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,230
23,102
New York
Thats only even strength. You can't discount that Zibanejad statistically this season is one of the best in the league on the PP, and throughout his career it's been a big weapon for him.

At the end of the game, PP points still show up on the stat-sheet. No one at the end of their careers is going to take a look at those charts to compare players. They are going to look at their raw totals, and statistically speaking Zibanejad has been about as good as there is in the league with raw totals this season.

He's also good on the PK, although those charts say he's bad defensively at 5 on 5, so I'd take these charts with a pinch of salt. They aren't always an accurate picture of a player's contributions.
 

LuckyBoeser

Registered User
Oct 8, 2018
1,354
1,706
Because it suggests Pettersson is better defensively than Zibanejad, which anybody who’s watched much of both players would clearly see isn’t true.
Why should we value your eye test over analytics? Your reply really isn't a valid reason to dethrone the argument presented by the poster you replied to. I'm open to discuss constructive critism about analytics, but what you said isn't a strong rebuttal.

Thats only even strength. You can't discount that Zibanejad statistically this season is one of the best in the league on the PP, and throughout his career it's been a big weapon for him.

At the end of the game, PP points still show up on the stat-sheet. No one at the end of their careers is going to take a look at those charts to compare players. They are going to look at their raw totals, and statistically speaking Zibanejad has been about as good as there is in the league with raw totals this season.

He's also good on the PK, although those charts say he's bad defensively at 5 on 5, so I'd take these charts with a pinch of salt. They aren't always an accurate picture of a player's contributions.
Even in analytics that includes both even strength and special teams, Pettersson still comes out ahead of Zibanejad.
 

The90

Registered User
Feb 27, 2017
6,020
4,789
Which ones?
The one where he has almost identical stats to last year, yet he’s somehow going to outscore 75 points 41-35 in 57gp. Despite any indication his game has improved statistically last year to this year. Totally logical.
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
24,545
13,841
Vancouver
Elias PetterssonMika Zibanejad
GAR
23.7​
8.5​
xGAR
17.2​
14.8​
WAR
4.2​
1.5​
xWAR
3.1​
2.6​
SPAR
8.1​
2.9​
xSPAR
5.9​
5​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
All of these statistics includes even strength, special teams, and penalty differential impact.

Those aren't prorated for Zibanejad though are they?
 

LuckyBoeser

Registered User
Oct 8, 2018
1,354
1,706
Those aren't prorated for Zibanejad though are they?
Yeah fair enough I should have done it in rates.
Elias PetterssonMika Zibanejad
GAR/60
1.131​
0.414​
xGAR/60
0.817​
0.718​
WAR/60
0.201​
0.074​
xWAR/60
0.145​
0.128​
SPAR
0.386​
0.142​
xSPAR/60
0.279​
0.245​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
So even converting these analytics into rates to adjust for missed time due to injuries for Zib; EP comes out ahead in 19-20.
 
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Boxscore

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Jan 22, 2007
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Wow, this is tough.

5, 10, 12, 18 months ago this wouldn't have been a fair fight. But, based on what we've seen from Zibanejad, this is a legit question ponder.

Zibanejad has impressed me tremendously this season especially, and I absolutely love his game. He's big, thick, strong, skilled and can score as well as he can pass the puck. He's also full of life and personality--which goes a long way with me--as I'm a big "intangibles/team" guy in general. I've turned into a big fan of Z.

As for Pettersson--damn, where to start? The kid has blown me away from day one. He's one of the players in the league--Makar, Dahlin and Q.Hughes being the others--that we don't know how great he can be. The term: "the sky is the limit" gets thrown around a lot but I think it's legit with Pettersson and those kids. I honestly think Pettersson has the talent to win an Art Ross in the NHL--he's that gifted. While Zibanejad is full of life and a happy-go-lucky dude, Pettersson is more reserved and quiet. That's not a bad thing, as Swedes are generally some of the best teammates to have, because their personalities allow them to fit into any locker room dynamic.

I honestly don't think you could go wrong with either of these guys. But Zibanejad is 26 and Pettersson is 21, so in this case I am taking the player who can offer me 5 more years of production, assuming both have long, successful careers.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,230
23,102
New York
Yeah fair enough I should have done it in rates.
Elias PetterssonMika Zibanejad
GAR/60
1.131​
0.414​
xGAR/60
0.817​
0.718​
WAR/60
0.201​
0.074​
xWAR/60
0.145​
0.128​
SPAR
0.386​
0.142​
xSPAR/60
0.279​
0.245​
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
So even converting these analytics into rates to adjust for missed time due to injuries for Zib; EP comes out ahead in 19-20.

But it’s the same argument as with Draisaitl. Zibanejad doesn’t do as well in these advanced stats due to a total anomaly (he has bad defensive stats, yet he clearly passes the eye test defensively and has good PK stats), so you are punishing the guy for one fluke in these advanced stats, yet discounting raw point totals.

I’m not saying one matters and the other doesn’t, like you are saying, but I don’t think you can so easily discount raw totals.
 

Regal

Registered User
Mar 12, 2010
24,545
13,841
Vancouver
But it’s the same argument as with Draisaitl. Zibanejad doesn’t do as well in these advanced stats due to a total anomaly (he has bad defensive stats, yet he clearly passes the eye test defensively and has good PK stats), so you are punishing the guy for one fluke in these advanced stats, yet discounting raw point totals.

I’m not saying one matters and the other doesn’t, like you are saying, but I don’t think you can so easily discount raw totals.

I actually wonder how much of it is related to Panarin and Kreider screwing with the baseline. A lot of these stats try to isolate a player's contributions from their teammates, but if you have Panarin being amazing when he's off the ice, then that's going to make it seem like those players who play with both are being hurt by Zibanejad, when he likely makes them better, just not as good as Panarin does, and Kreider has always been a great play driver, so if his numbers are better away from Zibanejad than Z's are away from Kreider, it's going to make it seem like he's the only one driving the bus when he and Zibanejad are together, when it's likely they both are. When the numbers are so far from the eye test there's usually other reasons behind it, and while it's hard to suggest he's an elite play driver given he numbers, I very much doubt he's a poor one.
 

LuckyBoeser

Registered User
Oct 8, 2018
1,354
1,706
But it’s the same argument as with Draisaitl. Zibanejad doesn’t do as well in these advanced stats due to a total anomaly (he has bad defensive stats, yet he clearly passes the eye test defensively and has good PK stats), so you are punishing the guy for one fluke in these advanced stats, yet discounting raw point totals.

I’m not saying one matters and the other doesn’t, like you are saying, but I don’t think you can so easily discount raw totals.
What makes advanced stats a total anomaly?

Also, when did I say that one matter and the other doesn't? I do value underlying numbers and scoring rates more than I value raw production, but I don't think it doesn't matter.

I actually wonder how much of it is related to Panarin and Kreider screwing with the baseline. A lot of these stats try to isolate a player's contributions from their teammates, but if you have Panarin being amazing when he's off the ice, then that's going to make it seem like those players who play with both are being hurt by Zibanejad, when he likely makes them better, just not as good as Panarin does, and Kreider has always been a great play driver, so if his numbers are better away from Zibanejad than Z's are away from Kreider, it's going to make it seem like he's the only one driving the bus when he and Zibanejad are together, when it's likely they both are. When the numbers are so far from the eye test there's usually other reasons behind it, and while it's hard to suggest he's an elite play driver given he numbers, I very much doubt he's a poor one.
RAPM isolate a player by using a shift by shift regression. So when Panarin is off the ice it won't affect Zibanejad's results. Evolving Hockey's GAR models does use relative teammates, but still includes RAPM components in the methodology. Also, I certainly don't think his numbers suggest he is a poor player, but it doesn't line up with the consensus' views on him this season.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,230
23,102
New York
I actually wonder how much of it is related to Panarin and Kreider screwing with the baseline. A lot of these stats try to isolate a player's contributions from their teammates, but if you have Panarin being amazing when he's off the ice, then that's going to make it seem like those players who play with both are being hurt by Zibanejad, when he likely makes them better, just not as good as Panarin does, and Kreider has always been a great play driver, so if his numbers are better away from Zibanejad than Z's are away from Kreider, it's going to make it seem like he's the only one driving the bus when he and Zibanejad are together, when it's likely they both are. When the numbers are so far from the eye test there's usually other reasons behind it, and while it's hard to suggest he's an elite play driver given he numbers, I very much doubt he's a poor one.

He doesn’t play on a line with Panarin.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

Drury and Laviolette Must Go
Dec 8, 2013
57,230
23,102
New York
What makes advanced stats a total anomaly?

Also, when did I say that one matter and the other doesn't? I do value underlying numbers and scoring rates more than I value raw production, but I don't think it doesn't matter.

As I mentioned already, his defensive numbers for this season at even strength aren’t good, yet it’s clear based on the eye test, his deployment and his PK stats that these defensive numbers for this season don’t align with his actual ability. I don’t have the time right now to dig into the exact cause of the anomaly (it’s likely some PDO issue or team-wide trend), but it’s certainly an anomaly.

And I’ll relate this back to one of Pettersson’s linemates because it’s definitely relevant. For years the people who followed advanced stats religiously told us JT Miller was a bad hockey player, even though he scored at high rates, played in all situations and was capable of doing some of everything on the ice. It was clear to everyone that he had some parts of the game to work on that might’ve helped cause his bad advanced stats, but since leaving the team he’s continued to improve and is now excelling. All but these people who followed these numbers religiously knew that he had an extremely high ceiling. This is a great example of why you don’t make huge judgments on ability due to a small sample of advanced stats when all the other evidence points otherwise.

By using a chart that only accounts for advanced stats and doesn’t account for raw totals like points, goals and assists in comparing the two players, I would think that you don’t see much relevance in using those measures to compare the two players.
 

Sun God Nika

Palestine <3.
Apr 22, 2013
19,862
8,246
Holy f*** this pole hurts., Zib is my favourite player of all time, I still wear his sens Jersey every now and then, got it autographed too, but this isn't fair to Pettersson. Zib is in his prime and Pettersson holds about three times the value Zib did at the same age.
 
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