Speculation: Zaitsev discussion part II

[Kiwi]

Yea, I cant filter what I'm looking at there by QoC but your probably right that he's out there against the better players with McDavid but the Ozone starts being that high is a little troubling.

Edmonton spread out hard minutes a lot more evenly than Toronto did though so even though Larssons QoC was tops on the team for RHD, it was virtually identical to Zaitsevs.

Larsson does have the better track record though but who knows? They might be looking to blow things up a bit and Brown was one the best defensive forwards on the Leafs and one of the best defensive 3rd/4th liners in the league.

Stranger things have happened....

They may want to put the whole Hall for Larsson thing behind them and Larsson hasn't been great the last couple of years so they could be amenable to moving him

I watched a fair bit of Edmonton and I didn't love the McDavid unit playing against the other team's best players, offensively they looked ok but defensively it did get pretty exciting at times and nobody looked great in there own end including Larsson

If I was them I'd be begging for Brown and Zaitsev would arguably be there best defensive RD I just think better offers than that would come in for Larsson

He's looked on much more favorably than Zaitsev, it's debatable if he should be but I think it will matter when offers come in for him

 

[Kiwi]

25 year old 3rd. pairing defender Benning? Maybe he'll be better on a better team?

So Leafs still need to find a 2nd. and 1st. pairing defender on the RD.

He's playing for a tyre fire of a team ULF, I wouldn't be shocked if Benning could do a job on the 2nd pair with us

We also don't have a 3rd pairing RD either so I'm not against getting Benning to fill at least one hole on the blueline

 

[ULF_55]

The Oilers are an interesting name.

With Holland now in charge, I wonder how he feels about the prospects in the organization.

Matt Benning + 2019 4th + Ryan McLeod would along the lines like the trades proposed above.

I think people keep forgetting how small the pool of RHD are in the NHL.

Zaitsev was a 2nd. pairing RHD, who played the most time shorthanded on the Leafs and almost zero time on the PP.

Comparable player as far as usage goes on the Oiler ... Larsson.

 

[Kiwi]

I think people keep forgetting how small the pool of RHD are in the NHL.

Zaitsev was a 2nd. pairing RHD, who played the most time shorthanded on the Leafs and almost zero time on the PP.

Comparable player as far as usage goes on the Oiler ... Larsson.

Larsson and Zaitsev are very comparable players

You look at usage, QOC and results it's pretty bloody close

 

[ULF_55]

Larsson and Zaitsev are very comparable players

You look at usage, QOC and results it's pretty bloody close

Now if the Leafs are looking for a 3rd. pairing, a pick and a prospect they aren't looking for Larsson.

Now I think that is speculation rather than fact.

I don't think Zaitsev and Brown is far off value.
Larsson's lack of offense is frequently brought up. Some thought it would develop and it never has.

 

[Kiwi]

Now if the Leafs are looking for a 3rd. pairing, a pick and a prospect they aren't looking for Larsson.

Now I think that is speculation rather than fact.

I don't think Zaitsev and Brown is far off value.
Larsson's lack of offense is frequently brought up. Some thought it would develop and it never has.

Reputation goes a long way, earned or not

If you look at this on pure usage and results Brown and Zaitsev would be an overpay for Larsson, I doubt GM's around the league would feel the same however

I don't mind Benning as a player, I do know however that if he gets Zaitsev's usage bad **** is going to happen

 

[ULF_55]

Reputation goes a long way, earned or not

If you look at this on pure usage and results Brown and Zaitsev would be an overpay for Larsson, I doubt GM's around the league would feel the same however

I don't mind Benning as a player, I do know however that if he gets Zaitsev's usage bad **** is going to happen

You mean media reputation or reputation among scouts and GM?

I don't really have much respect for Toronto media anymore, they seems to be mainstream click bait, tapping into fans bias to prop up their numbers.

 

[Kiwi]

You mean media reputation or reputation among scouts and GM?

I don't really have much respect for Toronto media anymore, they seems to be mainstream click bait, tapping into fans bias to prop up their numbers.

Mostly media but I do think it effects how other GM'S and scouts view our players, just look at hfboards if you want to see how it effects perception

The same people that talk about guys like Larsson being ideal are the same planks talking about Zaitsev who's a very similar player results wise like he's the worst contract in the league

It's all bias and narrative driven and doesn't fit with reality half the time

 

[Zybalto]

Mostly media but I do think it effects how other GM'S and scouts view our players, just look at hfboards if you want to see how it effects perception

The same people that talk about guys like Larsson being ideal are the same planks talking about Zaitsev who's a very similar player results wise like he's the worst contract in the league

It's all bias and narrative driven and doesn't fit with reality half the time

I really think defensive play messes with the media and many fans.

After everyone talked about how the playoffs are the most important thing, I watch the games and see good things from players and then the media really does focus on offense as well as play favorites.

I mean...

"Looks at who everybody wants to get rid of"

"Looks at the best Leafs over the last two playoffs in terms of 5v5 xGF% (80 minutes minimum)"

1. Zaitsev (Underlying stats are team MVP levels but teammates breaking down and Anderson letting in softies masking it somewhat. 2nd in the whole playoffs for GA/60/REL on the PK though)
2. Gardiner (Numbers were down this year with the injury and skated around like Frankenstein but still in 2nd)
3. Brown
4. Nylander (Some valid criticism as scoring wingers should put the puck in the net more but he makes a difference on the ice)



Brown is a very interesting case actually. His great regular season defensive play seamlessly carried over to the playoffs. Near the top of the league in xGA/60 in both the regular season and playoffs, his actual GA/60 numbers are simply mind blowing. 4th lowest in the NHL for GA/60 REL during the regular season this year among the 413 players with 800+ minutes and he followed it up by being the 2nd lowest in the NHL for GA/60 REL out of the 195 players with 80+ minutes the last two playoffs. He may be "black hole Brown" on offense but he's just an insane defensive forward.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Now if the Leafs are looking for a 3rd. pairing, a pick and a prospect they aren't looking for Larsson.

Now I think that is speculation rather than fact.

I don't think Zaitsev and Brown is far off value.
Larsson's lack of offense is frequently brought up. Some thought it would develop and it never has.

I actually think the Leafs lose value wise on that trade, but if it gets us a top 4 RD, it's probably worth it. I'd probably ask for a lesser piece like Khaira in the deal too, even if we need to add a minor prospect to get it done.

 

[ShaneFalco]

 

[JT AM da real deal]

If they really can get that I would be ecstatic. But it would be shocking. A right hand dman who can skate but not much else gets that wow.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

I really think defensive play messes with the media and many fans.

After everyone talked about how the playoffs are the most important thing, I watch the games and see good things from players and then the media really does focus on offense as well as play favorites.

I mean...

"Looks at who everybody wants to get rid of"

"Looks at the best Leafs over the last two playoffs in terms of 5v5 xGF% (80 minutes minimum)"

1. Zaitsev (Underlying stats are team MVP levels but teammates breaking down and Anderson letting in softies masking it somewhat. 2nd in the whole playoffs for GA/60/REL on the PK though)
2. Gardiner (Numbers were down this year with the injury and skated around like Frankenstein but still in 2nd)
3. Brown
4. Nylander (Some valid criticism as scoring wingers should put the puck in the net more but he makes a difference on the ice)



Brown is a very interesting case actually. His great regular season defensive play seamlessly carried over to the playoffs. Near the top of the league in xGA/60 in both the regular season and playoffs, his actual GA/60 numbers are simply mind blowing. 4th lowest in the NHL for GA/60 REL during the regular season this year among the 413 players with 800+ minutes and he followed it up by being the 2nd lowest in the NHL for GA/60 REL out of the 195 players with 80+ minutes the last two playoffs. He may be "black hole Brown" on offense but he's just an insane defensive forward.

Ya I made a thread near the end of the year pointing out Brown immense defensive play and people wanted non of it. He also has top 3 on the leafs for many other defensive stats like HDSC against/60, scoring chance against/60 etc and had top 3 hardest zone usage among forwards.

Once you become the whipping boy for all the leafs problems you cant shake it no matter your play.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Not exactly a flattering article about Zaitsev from Berkshire. Always interesting to read his stuff since he's got access to more micro stats than is available publicly.

Breaking down the trade value of Maple Leafs defender Nikita Zaitsev - Sportsnet.ca

A couple of interesting quotes:

In fact, of the 161 defencemen who played at least 800 minutes at 5-vs-5 last season, no defenceman completed fewer offensive-zone passes per 20 minutes played than Zaitsev did.

Add into all this that Zaitsev was a below-average puck battle winner on the Leafs, an area they struggled in anyway, and the bigger question to me isn’t whether he can be a top-four defenceman, but why Babcock trusted him so much.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Mirtle: Where will the Maple Leafs trade Nikita Zaitsev?

Let’s start with what we know for certain about the Nikita Zaitsev situation.

The most important thing to keep in mind here is he wants out. Full stop. It’s not the coach (he likes Mike Babcock) and it’s not his teammates, but a personal situation that has come up that has led them to this decision.

The reason that is important is Zaitsev has a 10-team no-trade clause that kicks in on his contract beginning July 1. Another wrinkle to that is he is owed a $3-million signing bonus on July 1.

If Zaitsev wanted to be selective about where was getting dealt, he could use that no-trade clause to block moves to undesirable locations. And he could make this trade process far more difficult for the Leafs front office.

My understanding is that will not happen. So the Leafs are not under time pressure here to trade him before July 1, for fear of the no-trade clause causing an issue.

Zaitsev then becomes more attractive to some acquiring teams because Toronto can pay that $3-million bonus before the trade, leaving an average of $3.9-million in cash to be paid out per year on the remainder of the deal.

For teams on a budget, that difference will matter more than the $4.5-million cap hit.

1. Edmonton Oilers

2. Vancouver Canucks

3. Anaheim Ducks

4. Dallas Stars

5. Minnesota Wild

6. NY Islanders

7. Florida Panthers

8. Philadelphia Flyers

9. Arizona Coyotes

10. Winnipeg Jets

 

[ACC1224]

Mirtle: Where will the Maple Leafs trade Nikita Zaitsev?

Interesting.
If it's not the coach and it's not the team, must be something in the city?
Danny Markov situation ?

 

[Martin Skoula]

Interesting.
If it's not the coach and it's not the team, must be something in the city?
Danny Markov situation ?

Maybe having a kid changes how he feels about being the lightning rod on defense.

 

[ACC1224]

Maybe having a kid changes how he feels about being the lightning rod on defense.

What do you mean by 'lightning rod"?

 

[Martin Skoula]

What do you mean by 'lightning rod"?

With Gardiner gone he's going to be far and ahead the biggest whipping boy for fans and media.

 

[ACC1224]

With Gardiner gone he's going to be far and ahead the biggest whipping boy for fans and media.

I'd be surprised if thats it.
I've never seen the fans give Zaitsev a hard time.
I don't know why he would think it would be his turn now.

 

[Zybalto]

Not exactly a flattering article about Zaitsev from Berkshire. Always interesting to read his stuff since he's got access to more micro stats than is available publicly.

Breaking down the trade value of Maple Leafs defender Nikita Zaitsev - Sportsnet.ca

A couple of interesting quotes:

Some very valid criticisms of his transition game of course but this kind of sticks out:

"Complaining to a Russian publication, Zaitsev claimed that he wasn’t given a chance to play in the offensive zone, asked to change as soon as the Leafs gained the zone in favour of other defencemen. That could be a real thing that Toronto’s coaching staff did from time to time that stuck with Zaitsev, but it’s something we can check.
Last season Zaitsev spent 37.6 per cent of his ice time in the offensive zone, 39.8 per cent in the defensive zone, and 22.6 per cent in the neutral zone. While it may seem tilted towards the defensive zone, it’s relatively average zonal deployment for a defenceman. He spent the same percentage of his ice time in the offensive zone as Brady Skjei, Nick Leddy, Darnell Nurse, and Nate Schmidt."

Zaitsev had 22% Ozone starts and yet spent 37.6% in the offensive zone? That certainly is a big discussion point and kind of shocks me and I dont think the author understands what deployment means but I get his point that Zaitsev might be wrong that he was always pulled off when the Leafs were entering the Ozone while the puck was in play but he certainly wasnt used that often for starts......and he was certainly deployed far more defensively than was advertised here.

 

[ShaneFalco]

A woman must be involved

 

[Nithoniniel]

Zaitsev had 22% Ozone starts and yet spent 37.6% in the offensive zone? That certainly is a big discussion point and kind of shocks me and I dont think the author understands what deployment means but I get his point that Zaitsev might be wrong that he was always pulled off when the Leafs were entering the Ozone while the puck was in play but he certainly wasnt used that often for starts......and he was certainly deployed far more defensively than was advertised here.

Berkshire through SportslogIQ has access to tons more data than we do, including actual ice time per zone which is what is referenced here.

 

[Zybalto]

Berkshire through SportslogIQ has access to tons more data than we do, including actual ice time per zone which is what is referenced here.

Oh, I know and I wish we could sneak a glimpse too. Having the data doesnt mean you cant make an analytical error though.

My beef is that zone TOI obviously does not equal deployment. This may say more about his teammates than Zaitsev himself of course but having overall TOI zone numbers like that with overall zone starts at near the bottom of the league is interesting.

Might be more a reflection of how underrated Gardiner was this year.

 

[Trapper]

A woman must be involved

Some people claim that there's a woman to blame
But I know, it's my own damn fault