Zadina's first 9 games and burning an ELC year

[Tirekicker]

Everyone that doesn't mind keeping him around the entire year has to be ok with the Red Wings likely pushing for a playoff spot. You can't have it both ways.

I want what's best for Zadina's development. That should be the only consideration.

 

[Shaman464]

If Zadina is producing in a top 6 role that likely means the Red Wings are winning hockey games. The only thing with keeping him up and burning a year is how he'll look in January. If he's still an impact player then that means he's one of the best rookies in the league.

Everyone that doesn't mind keeping him around the entire year has to be ok with the Red Wings likely pushing for a playoff spot. You can't have it both ways.

If he replaces Zetterbergs production they are still in the bottom 8 teams. He’d had to have a Calder winning season for them to be better than they were last year.

 

[TatarTangle]

If Zadina is producing in a top 6 role that likely means the Red Wings are winning hockey games. The only thing with keeping him up and burning a year is how he'll look in January. If he's still an impact player then that means he's one of the best rookies in the league.

Everyone that doesn't mind keeping him around the entire year has to be ok with the Red Wings likely pushing for a playoff spot. You can't have it both ways.

Zadina isn't vaulting this team, with an AHL defense, into a bubble team. Especially without Zetterberg and Anthansiou as a center, to start at least. Howard's gonna get injured, who knows how Bernier is going to do. Secondary scoring is going to be non-existent. List goes on.

You only get better by playing against people better than you, Zadina should be a mainstay.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

There is no way Zadina pushes the Wings close to a playoff spot unless he and a bunch of other guys have incredible seasons.

 

[Claypool]

There is no way Zadina pushes the Wings close to a playoff spot unless he and a bunch of other guys have incredible seasons.

The Red Wings suffered more one-goal losses (26) than any other team last season. If they win half of those games they make the playoffs. That’s all with Mike Green missing the final quarter of the season, having a disastrous power play, and winning only four of their remaining 20 games.

If Zadina is an immediate impact player scoring 35+ goals, then it also likely means Larkin, Manth, Bertuzzi etc. all are making an impact, too.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

But how many of those goals turn the tide in one goal losses? You can't just insert that production into the previous season (especially considering you are losing Zetterberg's) and assume that is going to turn the tide of a bunch of those games.

I'm also not convinced he even scores 30. He can still be productive and even score 20 goals.

 

[TatarTangle]

The Red Wings suffered more one-goal losses (26) than any other team last season. If they win half of those games they make the playoffs. That’s all with Mike Green missing the final quarter of the season, having a disastrous power play, and winning only four of their remaining 20 games.

If Zadina is an immediate impact player scoring 35+ goals, then it also likely means Larkin, Manth, Bertuzzi etc. all are making an impact, too.

With Zetterberg on the team, who is / was their best defenseman. As a forward.

An out-of-prime 37-year-old Zetterberg was their best forward and defensman last year. Now take that away.

They are going to struggle...strugggggllleeee...this season. Larkin is the only player you can rely on and Zadina isn't flipping anything like everyone does with houses on HGTV.

 

[TatarTangle]

There is no way Zadina pushes the Wings close to a playoff spot unless he and a bunch of other guys have incredible seasons.

If HFboards, and Red Wing fans in general, has taught me anything it's that with Trashill running things there isn't any chance of that happening

 

[Claypool]

But how many of those goals turn the tide in one goal losses? You can't just insert that production into the previous season (especially considering you are losing Zetterberg's) and assume that is going to turn the tide of a bunch of those games.

I'm also not convinced he even scores 30. He can still be productive and even score 20 goals.

I think we agree that Bernier will win more games next season than Coreau did last season? And if Howard stays healthy he'll likely win his 20+ games next season, too. This team is going to win more hockey games based on goaltending alone.

 

[Shaman464]

I think we agree that Bernier will win more games next season than Coreau did last season? And if Howard stays healthy he'll likely win his 20+ games next season, too. This team is going to win more hockey games based on goaltending alone.

How about how the fact the team's top 4 defenders are mostly borderline NHL players? Or the fact that Howard had his worse season since 2011 (90.96 save percentage, and a 2.85 gga), and that he played the most games since 2011 at the same time? And is getting older, and has been oft injured? So, either he's injured, or based on the fact the defense is getting worse, and he's not getting better, he not likely to be putting up all star numbers. And what about the fact that Detroit now has less center depth? Zadina is great, but there is no way he's going to overcome the mediocre goaltending, the abysmal defense, or lack of depth at center. Even with Zadina and Rasmussen this team is fundamentally worse than last season in almost every appreciable way.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

I think we agree that Bernier will win more games next season than Coreau did last season? And if Howard stays healthy he'll likely win his 20+ games next season, too. This team is going to win more hockey games based on goaltending alone.

You are counting on a lot of things to go right in this hypothetical situation.

 

[Claypool]

You are counting on a lot of things to go right in this hypothetical situation.

Let's put it this way, I think the Red Wings have a better shot at making the playoffs in a wild card spot than they do finishing last in the league.

It's not crazy to suggest the Rangers, Islanders, Hurricanes and Panthers will be worse than Detroit next season.

 

[Fear]

Let's put it this way, I think the Red Wings have a better shot at making the playoffs in a wild card spot than they do finishing last in the league.

It's not crazy to suggest the Rangers, Islanders, Hurricanes and Panthers will be worse than Detroit next season.

Panthers finished 23 points ahead and only got better. Devils finished 24 points ahead.

Thats a massive gap to close, the gap between Detroit and last place was only 11 points. Both of those teams have young players as well who should improve

 

[Shaman464]

Let's put it this way, I think the Red Wings have a better shot at making the playoffs in a wild card spot than they do finishing last in the league.

It's not crazy to suggest the Rangers, Islanders, Hurricanes and Panthers will be worse than Detroit next season.

Yes it’s exactly crazy to suggest those teams are worse than Detroit.

 

[Claypool]

Yes it’s exactly crazy to suggest those teams are worse than Detroit.

Let's hear your argument.

 

[SCD]

The kids are going to play and they are going to put up some significant points.

We certainly are not going to lose as many one goal games this year.

Defense is the toughest part for young players to adjust to in the NHL. Small mistakes or slightly out of position, and the puck is in the back of the net. Add two young defenseman to a porous old guard, doesn't bode well for our goals against average. I don't care what goalie you put in net, it is not going to be pretty.

Stevie Y put up some great numbers his first couple of years, but his +/- was also the highest for his career. Fun to watch, but we didn't win many games.

Like Larkin his first year, these guys are going to try and run and gun. The question is how much is Blashill going to try to restrain them to play some defense. How much room is in AA's dog house.

 

[Dotter]

Everyone is talking about how Detroit vets are going to decline, but the young players like Bert, Mantha and Larkin will all be better (or atleast we hope). We have better goaltending and we're adding more kids that we all hope make an impact.

That being said, I don't see Detroit significantly better than last season and the true factor will be how other teams do around the league, that will decide our '19 draft lottery more than how Wings perform.

*If Wings make the playoffs, it'll be because of a combination of reasons; other teams under-performed, Wings youth have a glorious year, and goaltending was healthy and lights out. Basically the perfect storm -- that can happen, which is why the NHL is so great. "on paper" means little when puck drops.

 

[TheMule93]

I just woke up and was reminded that we drafted Filip f***ing Zadina

Wooooooo!!! Bring on the season already

 

[jkutswings]

I would caution against any line of thinking that implies Zadina scoring X points is the same benefit to the roster (or standings) as if Zetterberg still played and scored X points.

For all his injuries and clear evidence of being in the twilight of his career, Hank played some tough minutes, even last year, and did a lot more than just score over 50 points. We all hope Zadina blossoms into an elite scorer, but even then, he's not going to be a two-way center that can simultaneously hang around PPG offense while locking down the best opposing forwards. I'm not saying Zetterberg can still do those things, but even the most optimistic Zadina predictions for this year shouldn't include the responsibilities of a center, let alone one that was close to Selke caliber at his zenith.

If Zadina plays a full year with Detroit, I'd be thrilled with 35-40 points and good health. But even if he does that and more, it still leaves the Wings as a bottom 5 team with more holes than Swiss cheese...which is ok at this stage of a rebuild.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Let's put it this way, I think the Red Wings have a better shot at making the playoffs in a wild card spot than they do finishing last in the league.

It's not crazy to suggest the Rangers, Islanders, Hurricanes and Panthers will be worse than Detroit next season.

I think we are more likely to finish last in the league than sniff the playoffs. I would have to look up the Vegas odds and whatnot but I wouldn't be surprised if they agree in terms of that as well.

Zetterberg is a massive loss for this hockey club.

I like Zadina and Ras but they aren't going to be capable of filling that void. Zetterberg even while not being the same as his prime still was a really good 200 foot player. He protected his own end well, so while I am doubtful we can recreate his offense with Zadina, Vanek and Ramussen they have a better chance of that than we do of replacing what he meant to the team in all three zones. I don't see the answer for that on this team. It is about how the young guys develop for me this year and I expect us to be perhaps the worst team in the league.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Let's put it this way, I think the Red Wings have a better shot at making the playoffs in a wild card spot than they do finishing last in the league.

It's not crazy to suggest the Rangers, Islanders, Hurricanes and Panthers will be worse than Detroit next season.

Defense still blows, no Zetterberg, and it's unlikely Howard repeats his unreal performance for the first quarter of the season that kept us from being the worst team in the league.

Maybe one of those teams will be worse, (Not sure why you think it'll be the Panthers...) but there's no way Detroit is closer to making the playoffs than being the worst.

 

[Shaman464]

Let's hear your argument.

The only team to get significantly worse on that list is the Islanders. But, they still have a young team, and more depth than Detroit. Every other team either stayed the same as they were last season, or have improved. Detroit on the other hand has a goalie made of glass that both played the most games he's played since his 20s and posted his worse numbers in over half a decade. They also lost their #1 center, while having very little center depth to begin with. Finally the defense is aging like milk with no significant moves toward improving it. So there is no reason to believe the defense will be any better next season, there is no reason to believe the centers will be better, and no reason to think the goalies will be better. So that means Detroit, even if everyone stays about where they were, only treads water. If there is any drop in performances by Green (who by every measure had one of his worst seasons last season, and is on a downward trend), Howard (who also had one of his worst seasons last season), Kronwall (who is barely able to play), Nielsen (who is had a horrible season, and is trending downward), Ericsson (who is oft injured, and also is trending downward), Daley (who again, is trending downwards), etc. then Detroit doesn't just tread water, but continues to sink. And I only named players at premium positions. Detroit needs, somehow, for those players to stay right where they are at, while not only replacing Zetterbergs missing ~60 points, leadership, and defense, but also collectively exceed that. So, if what's likely to occurs, occurs, that is that most of the listed players continue to see their ability to play at a high level drop, their totals drop, and the young kids either stay the same (likely with Larkin) only have predictable, modest increases in output (Mantha), there is no way Detroit is even as good as it was at the end of the season last year.

 

[haulinbass]

Burning that ELC in the Red Wings situation is irrelevant. If anything it likely helps land a better contract in the future.

But there is no reason to not start him in the NHL. If you think its better to start him in the NHL your only saying so because you are impatient wanting to see him now.

The biggest thing here is confidence and ice time. Zadina likely walks right into the AHL and has a very productive season and plays in all situations. No reason for this kid to come to Detroit and get sheltered minutes and struggle to produce at a high rate. You want this kid producing big points next year in the AHL. There is absolutely no reason that Detroit needs this kid on the NHL roster right now. I could understand if he wasn't eligible in the AHL but as we know, he is.

 

[19 for president]

If he is ready you burn the ELC. Holding guys back for a potential better contract down the line is a bad play if it hurts their development. If he is NHL ready he should be in the NHL. Developing bad habits in the AHL is now how we want our future star prepping for the NHL. Now if he doesn't look ready, I am totally pro not rushing him into the NHL since he doesn't have to go back to juniors.

As for the team overall, I think this team could be more interesting than many suspect. I expect the PP to much improved adding Ras, Vanek, and likely Zadina to it. Having a healthy Green be on the 1st unit should help. I don't even think Blash could trot Kronner out on the first unit anymore.

I mean you could run a 1st PP unit of:
Zadina- Larkin- Vanek
Mantha- Green

AA-Ras (Guys amazing on faceoffs)-Bert
Daley- Nielson (not ideal but he's the best defensively and has good vision to QB the PP)

I think that is a huge improvement over last season, which should create a lot more offense.

Defensively we will be horrid unless Cholo and/or Hronek make the team and just really step up. I'd like to see one of them make the team and knock Daley off the PP unit. Until the D is fixed I don't see us making the playoffs, but I do think we could be a #10 team and not the #16 team everyone thinks we will be.

 

[Flowah]

Everyone is talking about how Detroit vets are going to decline, but the young players like Bert, Mantha and Larkin will all be better (or atleast we hope). We have better goaltending and we're adding more kids that we all hope make an impact.

Unless one of the kids turns into the second coming of McJesus, Zetterberg's absence is a nail in the coffin in terms of this team being better than last year.

Zetterberg played huge, key minutes. His stats from every perspective were the top or near the top of our team. We're basically removed the undisputed #1/2 player on the team. There *might* have been a chance at improving the record, IF Zetterberg stayed. But all signs point to no on that front.

We just need to accept that this year will suck at least as bad as last year. Which everyone should be fine with. We need to draft more key guys. Sucking harder gives us higher picks. And we would have to improve so much to even sniff the playoffs this season. Even just decent improvement from all the kids isn't going to get us there.