Zadina vs. Hughes

[ChrisReevesLegs]

For those thinking lets trade Zadina for a first round pick....

What kind of pick are you thinking of getting? Realistically. A 12th OA? 15th OA?
What kind of player do you think we are going to get with that kind of a pick?
I'll tell you what kind of player we won't find... a Zadina type.

Look Zadina is not Matthew Tkachuk, and he is not Mitch Marner.
He may end up being simply a Tomas Tatar.
This is all based on expectations being sky high... expecting him to be Marner. Well sorry everyone, looks like hes going to be more like a Tatar at this point.

I would be looking to flip him for an established Dman, not a first round pick, but in your scenario probably anything within 15-25 realistically. And I'd draft a Dman depending on what's available of course. Zadina should have been drafted where Veleno was honestly.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I would be looking to flip him for an established Dman, not a first round pick, but in your scenario probably anything within 15-25 realistically. And I'd draft a Dman depending on what's available of course. Zadina should have been drafted where Veleno was honestly.

This is so exaggerated that I can’t take it seriously.

 

[lilidk]

For sure Zadina is progressing and this is only matter .

 

[BinCookin]

I would be looking to flip him for an established Dman, not a first round pick, but in your scenario probably anything within 15-25 realistically. And I'd draft a Dman depending on what's available of course. Zadina should have been drafted where Veleno was honestly.

So you would prefer a 20-25th OA D prospect over Zadina right now? Would you do that trade? I wouldn't.

 

[ChrisReevesLegs]

This is so exaggerated that I can’t take it seriously.

No worries, I'm pretty callused to this type of reaction at this point.

Everyone laughed me off the board last year in fall 2018 for thinking this way, despite me providing a mountain of reasons why I do. I enjoyed watching a lot of people slowly warm to the notion that Zadina really isn't anything speculator throughout the remainder of the year and up till now.

That all aside, Zadina is on a bit of a hot streak in GR at the moment, and unfortunately I had to stop watching Griffins games at about the exact time he started taking off. So unfortunately I feel kind of unarmed at the moment, as I can't really comment on his recent play.

But from what I HAVE seen of him, I would argue he's a late 1st to high 2nd talent level player. Which is why I'd want to flip him sooner rather than later (while perceived value is still high) and get a mid to late first for him. I honestly don't believe that would ever truly happen though, and I think it's more realistic to flip him for an established Dman from a selling team.

So you would prefer a 20-25th OA D prospect over Zadina right now? Would you do that trade? I wouldn't.

Yeah I would, just off the top of my head from this last draft I would flip him straight up for Lassi Thomson or Ville Heinola, maybe even Bjornfort. IDK, like I said to Hen Kolland I'd rather get an already established Dman at the current moment.

 

[Hen Kolland]

No worries, I'm pretty callused to this type of reaction at this point.

Everyone laughed me off the board last year in fall 2018 for thinking this way, despite me providing a mountain of reasons why I do. I enjoyed watching a lot of people slowly warm to the notion that Zadina really isn't anything speculator throughout the remainder of the year and up till now.

That all aside, Zadina is on a bit of a hot streak in GR at the moment, and unfortunately I had to stop watching Griffins games at about the exact time he started taking off. So unfortunately I feel kind of unarmed at the moment, as I can't really comment on his recent play.

But from what I HAVE seen of him, I would argue he's a late 1st to high 2nd talent level player. Which is why I'd want to flip him sooner rather than later (while perceived value is still high) and get a mid to late first for him. I honestly don't believe that would ever truly happen though, and I think it's more realistic to flip him for an established Dman from a selling team.



Yeah I would, just off the top of my head from this last draft I would flip him straight up for Lassi Thomson or Ville Heinola, maybe even Bjornfort. IDK, like I said to Hen Kolland I'd rather get an already established Dman at the current moment.

Count me as the group that would still laugh at you. And will continue to laugh at you.

 

[ChrisReevesLegs]

Count me as the group that would still laugh at you. And will continue to laugh at you.

laugh while you still can I guess

 

[styleisle]

I'm glad none of us are actually the ones making the decisions for this team. Trading Zadina now is terrible asset management. Was he the best pick in 2018 at #6? At that point in time absolutely. Is he now? No, but there still is time between now and when all is said and done. It has only been a year and five months. calm down people.

 

[Hen Kolland]

laugh while you still can I guess

I would be interested to see your 2018 draft rankings. Like top 50 at the time of the draft. I don't anticipate you have this documented or could honestly recreate the rankings, but I think it would be interesting to see laid out based on your parameters.

 

[MBH]

I'm glad none of us are actually the ones making the decisions for this team. Trading Zadina now is terrible asset management. Was he the best pick in 2018 at #6? At that point in time absolutely. Is he now? No, but there still is time between now and when all is said and done. It has only been a year and five months. calm down people.

I agree with you that now would be a bad time to trade him, unless you're getting something great. Unlikely you what you'd need right now.

But I disagree that Zadina was absolutely the best pick at 6.
It was the best draft for defensemen in years. And we needed defense
Dobson. Hughes. Boqvist. Bouchard. We should have drafted one of them.
It was true then.
It's still true today.

 

[NotLeddy]

We needed left defense then, we need left defense now, Hronek is turning out okay and so is Seider. Which is so frustrating about Wright, Holland etc. making up their minds about Hughes prior to the draft and informing someone to let him know that they wouldn't be drafting him. Blashill even coached him at the World Cup and he played at UoM so they saw him a ton, I don't get it. I knew he was going to be something special the first couple times I watched him. I really just hope Zadina becomes an NHL player at this point just to take away from such a frustrating decision.

Hughes-Seider
Cholowski-Hronek

I really think our rebuild would be closing a lot sooner right now if this was our projected D-core in 2-3 years...

 

[Flowah]

People keep saying wait a few years, wait a few years.

Do we not take a player blowing up the AHL as a good sign? Do we still say "wait a few years" for that? Or do we take it as a reason to be optimistic and expect good things when they transition to the NHL? Do we not expect more from #6 picks? Why then is a player who doesn't do as well as we hoped in the AHL not reason to be pessimistic? Do we only urge "caution" about judging picks when it's possible we made a drafting mistake, in the hopes that 4 years from now no one will care enough to be upset?

There's just no way around it. One player is kicking ass in the NHL, helping a team many thought wouldn't be close to playoffs earn a spot. The other is doing pretty good at best in the AHL. You can say "wait a few years" all you want but we use past results to estimate and predict future results all the time and no one thinks that's crazy. Until apparently it means we made a rather obvious mistake.

And then people will come back with "we were never taking Hughes" which to me translates into "we were always going to f*** this up somehow." Not sure how that's a defense that people think is okay. Like if I partied instead of studying for the test, I come back with "I was never going to study anyway. If I didn't party I would have just played video games instead." That's not a defense. That's an admission of stupidity.

I'm not calling Zadina a bust, but there's absolutely no getting around the fact that he's been a disappointing #6 pick compared to what we could have had and that people knew about. Plus it's not like a guy like that drops from #3 for no reason. What did the other teams know that apparently we didn't? Why was Hughes not higher on our radar? I definitely heard his name mentioned on this board plenty before the draft.

 

[Dan Kelly]

I’m still surprised that Arizona took Hayton over Zadina and Hughes! Nothing against Hayton but they missed out In my opinion!

 

[Hen Kolland]

People keep saying wait a few years, wait a few years.

Do we not take a player blowing up the AHL as a good sign? Do we still say "wait a few years" for that? Or do we take it as a reason to be optimistic and expect good things when they transition to the NHL? Do we not expect more from #6 picks? Why then is a player who doesn't do as well as we hoped in the AHL not reason to be pessimistic? Do we only urge "caution" about judging picks when it's possible we made a drafting mistake, in the hopes that 4 years from now no one will care enough to be upset?

There's just no way around it. One player is kicking ass in the NHL, helping a team many thought wouldn't be close to playoffs earn a spot. The other is doing pretty good at best in the AHL. You can say "wait a few years" all you want but we use past results to estimate and predict future results all the time and no one thinks that's crazy. Until apparently it means we made a rather obvious mistake.

And then people will come back with "we were never taking Hughes" which to me translates into "we were always going to **** this up somehow." Not sure how that's a defense that people think is okay. Like if I partied instead of studying for the test, I come back with "I was never going to study anyway. If I didn't party I would have just played video games instead." That's not a defense. That's an admission of stupidity.

I'm not calling Zadina a bust, but there's absolutely no getting around the fact that he's been a disappointing #6 pick compared to what we could have had and that people knew about. Plus it's not like a guy like that drops from #3 for no reason. What did the other teams know that apparently we didn't? Why was Hughes not higher on our radar? I definitely heard his name mentioned on this board plenty before the draft.

The teams ahead took the no brainer 1 and 2, two opted for the premium position in a center, and the final one took a player in Tkachuk who many thought could or should be in the discussion as a top 3 pick.

As for why people preach patience, it's because we are talking about kids on development curves that aren't equal. Very rarely do you see first year players explode on the scene as kids that can't hack it over the course of their careers, but the most common occurrence for drafted prospects requires multiple years to establish themselves and reach their peak. And very few players actually make the NHL in a "kick ass" manner.

9 players from the 2018 draft have played more games than Zadina. We have discussed Quinn Hughes at length here so I will remove him and the 4 others in their second season (Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, Tkachuk).

The 4 others are Lundestrom, Farabee, Hayton, and Gustafsson. Those 4 players have played a combined 51 NHL games more than Zadina and have produced a combined 8 more points than Zadina. It's almost as if 1 year and 10-20 games removed from their draft is a f***ing stupid time frame to assess prospects.

It's like bragging about not going to college and avoiding student loan debt compared to the guy who decided to enroll in med school. Obviously shit can play out a number of ways in the future, but all that matters is where things up at the end of the day.

 

[ChrisReevesLegs]

I'm glad none of us are actually the ones making the decisions for this team. Trading Zadina now is terrible asset management. Was he the best pick in 2018 at #6? At that point in time absolutely. Is he now? No, but there still is time between now and when all is said and done. It has only been a year and five months. calm down people.

Uhhhh I think everyone's discussing pretty calmly lol. Maybe YOU need a breather?

Can you explain why trading Zadina now would be terrible asset management? Genuinely want to know how you see that

I would be interested to see your 2018 draft rankings. Like top 50 at the time of the draft. I don't anticipate you have this documented or could honestly recreate the rankings, but I think it would be interesting to see laid out based on your parameters.

Ah sure. Lemme explain my POV though.

I don't watch prospects going into the draft that much outside of a few players I really like (Zadina was not one of these), and I don't even read that much about prospects besides what I garner from around boards like this. Basically I think studying draft prospects is a futile wasteful enterprise, because the Wings are just gonna pick who they pick anyway. Instead I like to follow already drafted Wings prospects and watch GR.

So I certainly could not put together a list of my fav top 50 prospects from 2018.

With Zadina, like seemingly all Wings fans, I was thrilled to select him at 6. I was led to believe he was an incredibly dynamic sniper who would probably make the NHL very quickly, and we were lucky to get him at 6 overall. And I was thrilled about this all the way through the summer of 2018... until I started watching him in GR. I saw/see a player with an enormous amount of natural talent, and a very small hockey IQ. I don't think he'll ever be a cornerstone play driver... I see more of a passenger type player like a Hudler.

Anyway, hope that makes good sense.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Uhhhh I think everyone's discussing pretty calmly lol. Maybe YOU need a breather?

Can you explain why trading Zadina now would be terrible asset management? Genuinely want to know how you see that



Ah sure. Lemme explain my POV though.

I don't watch prospects going into the draft that much outside of a few players I really like (Zadina was not one of these), and I don't even read that much about prospects besides what I garner from around boards like this. Basically I think studying draft prospects is a futile wasteful enterprise, because the Wings are just gonna pick who they pick anyway. Instead I like to follow already drafted Wings prospects and watch GR.

So I certainly could not put together a list of my fav top 50 prospects from 2018.

With Zadina, like seemingly all Wings fans, I was thrilled to select him at 6. I was led to believe he was an incredibly dynamic sniper who would probably make the NHL very quickly, and we were lucky to get him at 6 overall. And I was thrilled about this all the way through the summer of 2018... until I started watching him in GR. I saw/see a player with an enormous amount of natural talent, and a very small hockey IQ. I don't think he'll ever be a cornerstone play driver... I see more of a passenger type player like a Hudler.

Anyway, hope that makes good sense.

So you’ve never watched Zadina dominate his peer group in juniors. Quickly wrote him off as a late first or early second talent based on watching him as an 18 year old. And now that he’s actually strung together some very good performances, you just don’t have the ability to watch and make a new assessment?

It seems like you’d be impossible to impress.

Yes, I think there are issues with his game, but I’ve also seen the beginnings of him addressing some of those issues. I don’t think he’s out of place as a top ten caliber player, and while he hasn’t performed in the NHL like some of the others, he isn’t truly behind the 8 ball as of yet.

 

[lomekian]

I agree with you that now would be a bad time to trade him, unless you're getting something great. Unlikely you what you'd need right now.

But I disagree that Zadina was absolutely the best pick at 6.
It was the best draft for defensemen in years. And we needed defense
Dobson. Hughes. Boqvist. Bouchard. We should have drafted one of them.
It was true then.
It's still true today.

At the time the overwhelming majority were delighted he fell to us. Agree that now it looks like Hughes was a miss, and he was someone I liked, but will confess I had no idea he's be this good this quickly, unlike Petterson who I was praying would fall to the wings.

As for Bouchard, Boqvist and Dobson, at this point, none have shown appreciably more than Zadina, so I'm not ready to anoint them as better options until there is a considerably larger sample size.

 

[ricky0034]

Uhhhh I think everyone's discussing pretty calmly lol. Maybe YOU need a breather?

Can you explain why trading Zadina now would be terrible asset management? Genuinely want to know how you see that



Ah sure. Lemme explain my POV though.

I don't watch prospects going into the draft that much outside of a few players I really like (Zadina was not one of these), and I don't even read that much about prospects besides what I garner from around boards like this. Basically I think studying draft prospects is a futile wasteful enterprise, because the Wings are just gonna pick who they pick anyway. Instead I like to follow already drafted Wings prospects and watch GR.

So I certainly could not put together a list of my fav top 50 prospects from 2018.

With Zadina, like seemingly all Wings fans, I was thrilled to select him at 6. I was led to believe he was an incredibly dynamic sniper who would probably make the NHL very quickly, and we were lucky to get him at 6 overall. And I was thrilled about this all the way through the summer of 2018... until I started watching him in GR. I saw/see a player with an enormous amount of natural talent, and a very small hockey IQ. I don't think he'll ever be a cornerstone play driver... I see more of a passenger type player like a Hudler.

Anyway, hope that makes good sense.

I think part of it is you have radically unrealistic expectations of what a "late first rounder" as you keep calling Zadina actually is

you mention Hudler

did you know that right now 17 years after his draft Hudler is 4th in his draft class in points per game in the NHL(and 7th in actual points)?

 

[Flowah]

As for why people preach patience, it's because we are talking about kids on development curves that aren't equal. Very rarely do you see first year players explode on the scene as kids that can't hack it over the course of their careers, but the most common occurrence for drafted prospects requires multiple years to establish themselves and reach their peak. And very few players actually make the NHL in a "kick ass" manner.

Okay.

But you've completely ignored everything I said.

1. Why is there a double standard? We gush over Seider for doing so well in the AHL his first season. Why not preach patience? He might fizzle out! We just don't know yet! He's so young! Is it perhaps.... because past performance is often indicative of future performance? If it cuts positively it has to cut negatively too. Can't just have it one way.

2. Yeah there were other misses too. But Hughes was a known player. It's not like some guy who was picked in the 6th round and became an all-star. People were talking about him as a top10 pick well before the draft. Right now it looks we missed big on that. We should wonder why we missed. Why did our scouts not identify him?

 

[deca guard]

somebody just lit the lamp in van andel

 

[deca guard]

edit

 

[Red Stanley]

Okay.

But you've completely ignored everything I said.

1. Why is there a double standard? We gush over Seider for doing so well in the AHL his first season. Why not preach patience? He might fizzle out! We just don't know yet! He's so young! Is it perhaps.... because past performance is often indicative of future performance? If it cuts positively it has to cut negatively too. Can't just have it one way.

2. Yeah there were other misses too. But Hughes was a known player. It's not like some guy who was picked in the 6th round and became an all-star. People were talking about him as a top10 pick well before the draft. Right now it looks we missed big on that. We should wonder why we missed. Why did our scouts not identify him?

Since we have personally no influence over what happens to these kids, it's just healthier and more natural to be hopeful than to be skeptical. Most people tend to be optimists. That's probably why you see a discrepancy in that regard. It would be nice to see criticisms of these young prospects be kept to specifics rather than indictments on their entire careers.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Okay.

But you've completely ignored everything I said.

1. Why is there a double standard? We gush over Seider for doing so well in the AHL his first season. Why not preach patience? He might fizzle out! We just don't know yet! He's so young! Is it perhaps.... because past performance is often indicative of future performance? If it cuts positively it has to cut negatively too. Can't just have it one way.

2. Yeah there were other misses too. But Hughes was a known player. It's not like some guy who was picked in the 6th round and became an all-star. People were talking about him as a top10 pick well before the draft. Right now it looks we missed big on that. We should wonder why we missed. Why did our scouts not identify him?

I didn’t ignore anything you said, and I’m certainly not suggesting projection is a one way street. The reason why we get excited for prospects who do well, is because very very very few step in like Seider has and go on to struggle in their career. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns that exist, and hurdles that need to be cleared to reach their potential.

All we know at this point is that Quinn Hughes looks like an exceptionally gifted powerplay quarterback. His production is probably around 75% tied to the powerplay. It’s fantastic that he has that under his belt. That’s something to be excited about. But what Quinn Hughes has given us zero indication of is, can he be a true number one that you are throwing out in any situation? Will he develop into someone you can throw out for a key PK and lock down a win? Will his value remain as great in highly physical, loosely officiated playoff games?

You are the one making a suggestion that immediate success should be met with a cautious perspective, but then say Quinn looks to be a can’t miss prospect based on his hot start. So which side of your mouth should I listen to?

 

[golffuul]

Zadina will be fine in the long run. Even though this is his 2nd year as a pro, I really feel like this is his first year as a someone who can potentially make the roster. It's not that his Hockey IQ is low, it seems more like his world was shaken a bit and he's had to come to grips with how hard you need to work, at the pro level. Every big goal scorer loves to think that they are Alex Ovechkin and their talent just naturally translates to whatever level they play to. But no one sees how hard Ovechkin worked on his conditioning, strength, and his shot. Even Ovechkin-like clones like Laine are now realizing just how much hard work it takes.

So if it takes Zadina 3 years to make the club and he's a 20-ish goal scorer when he makes the club at 21-22 years of age, I'm totally fine with that. Just look how long it took Mantha and AA to find their footing. Zadina will be a top-6 forward before too long and we'll all turn our attention to the next prospect who doesn't meet our exacting expectations and make the club straight out of Bantam or something.

 

[TatarTangle]

People keep saying wait a few years, wait a few years.

Do we not take a player blowing up the AHL as a good sign? Do we still say "wait a few years" for that? Or do we take it as a reason to be optimistic and expect good things when they transition to the NHL? Do we not expect more from #6 picks? Why then is a player who doesn't do as well as we hoped in the AHL not reason to be pessimistic? Do we only urge "caution" about judging picks when it's possible we made a drafting mistake, in the hopes that 4 years from now no one will care enough to be upset?

There's just no way around it. One player is kicking ass in the NHL, helping a team many thought wouldn't be close to playoffs earn a spot. The other is doing pretty good at best in the AHL. You can say "wait a few years" all you want but we use past results to estimate and predict future results all the time and no one thinks that's crazy. Until apparently it means we made a rather obvious mistake.

And then people will come back with "we were never taking Hughes" which to me translates into "we were always going to **** this up somehow." Not sure how that's a defense that people think is okay. Like if I partied instead of studying for the test, I come back with "I was never going to study anyway. If I didn't party I would have just played video games instead." That's not a defense. That's an admission of stupidity.

I'm not calling Zadina a bust, but there's absolutely no getting around the fact that he's been a disappointing #6 pick compared to what we could have had and that people knew about. Plus it's not like a guy like that drops from #3 for no reason. What did the other teams know that apparently we didn't? Why was Hughes not higher on our radar? I definitely heard his name mentioned on this board plenty before the draft.

Because Hughes isn't a #1 defenseman everyone already thinks he is. He is a PP specialist, and there is a lot of value to that. Kind of like how AA has value, but he really isn't anything special. Think of Hughes as a tiny AA.