Line Combos: Zack Smith's place in the lineup.

[WaitingInVain]

Based on Mac being concussion symptoms free, right?

If worse came to worst in that only one of Hoffman, MacArthur and Smith is available next year (2017), I would have confidence in Paul and Dzingel to take the 3LW and 4LW spots, and for Perron and Puempel to duke it out for 2LW.

Left wing depth is fine, hence Smith will be traded to make room.

 

[topshelf15]

If worse came to worst in that only one of Hoffman, MacArthur and Smith is available next year (2017), I would have confidence in Paul and Dzingel to take the 3LW and 4LW spots, and for Perron and Puempel to duke it out for 2LW.

Left wing depth is fine, hence Smith will be traded to make room.

If the prove to be better than iam all for it ,but we will have a much softer top 9 .So iam not yet convinced that Smith is an auto trade

 

[Sens]

Jesus dude ,you really need to look at most players throughout the history of the nhl that have created offense the exact same way Smith did last season.He played within his limits ,and scored from in front of the net .Played the role of garbage man to a tee,his shooting % is so high because of where he scored his goals.And also getting the opportunity ,to play with better players .

Dismissing him outright is pretty foolish on your part ,no reason for him not play the exact same way as he did last season.And no reason for the team not to use him in offensive situations either.He provides some grit in the top 9 and best of all a will to get to the front of the net

David Clarkson, Nick Foligno

I just happy Smith did not pot 20+ during his UFA season

 

[topshelf15]

David Clarkson, Nick Foligno

I just happy Smith did not pot 20+ during his UFA season

Dave Andrechuck ,Tim Kerr .Those are the players i was talking about ,high shooting % wanna know why??Now iam not saying Smith is even remotely in the same class as these two HOFers,but Smith does have something in common with them as far as how he is scoring his goals

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I'm certainly open the possibility that Smith has found another level

Thing is, I doubt he's in the long term plans for the team even if he does score another 20 goals: we need to clear money for the incoming big contracts and he's a prime candidate for allowing room to be created

 

[DylanSensFan]

While nobody was watching, he actually had a monster end to the season:

32gp 16g 25p +13

Mike Hoffman in the same timeframe:

32gp 7g 20p -7


I also did some advanced sats analysis for Zack Smith over here.

Based on that analysis I think Zack Smith should be given a chance at top 6 and powerplay to start the season.

What is significant is the fact they both had similar point output, but Hoffman really sucks hind tit defensively compared to Smith. The management is right to have concerns about Hoffman and use it as a bargaining chip. Hoffman could score 35, but if we get 35 goals in our net because of him, it is a wash.

 

[topshelf15]

I'm certainly open the possibility that Smith has found another level

Thing is, I doubt he's in the long term plans for the team even if he does score another 20 goals: we need to clear money for the incoming big contracts and he's a prime candidate for allowing room to be created

He has just done what they teach as a forward when you first start playing,wanna score goals??The easiest way to do it be in front of the net ,Smith gives the top 9 this .Who is going to stand in front of Price when Weber is on the ice if we dont have him ??Smith has the balls to

 

[Sens]

He has just done what they teach as a forward when you first start playing,wanna score goals??The easiest way to do it be in front of the net ,Smith gives the top 9 this .Who is going to stand in front of Price when Weber is on the ice if we dont have him ??Smith has the balls to

This is what people said about David Clarkson...

 

[Sens]

David Clarkson best three years
30G
17G
15G in 48 (lockout season)

Smith
25G
14G
13G

 

[topshelf15]

This is what people said about David Clarkson...

Yeah and it worked for the season he played with Parise/Kovalchuk,The leafs never had anyone in the same ballpark.Again iam not saying he wont come down he just may do exactly that,but if he wants the big dollars .He probably will continue to do exactly what he did last season .

Every successful team needs that one guy that will battle hard in front of the oppositions net ,i think we have one in him .The trick is not to overpay to keep him

 

[topshelf15]

David Clarkson best three years
30G
17G
15G in 48 (lockout season)

Smith
25G
14G
13G

Yep add in guys like Bickell and Smith on the low end,Gallager and Holmstrom on the higher end.I am not advocting a 7 year 5 million dollar deal if he hit 25 again shoveling garbage in front of the net .But under 3 mil for say 3 seasons if he hits those totals wouldnt totally be a bad thing .Besides having a guy that provides some edge in a somewhat soft top 9 is a good thing

 

[Sens]

Yep add in guys like Bickell and Smith on the low end,Gallager and Holmstrom on the higher end.I am not advocting a 7 year 5 million dollar deal if he hit 25 again shoveling garbage in front of the net .But under 3 mil for say 3 seasons if he hits those totals wouldnt totally be a bad thing .Besides having a guy that provides some edge in a somewhat soft top 9 is a good thing

Smith makes 2.25 this season... You're looking at a Beleskey type extention 3.8x4

 

[Sens]

Or how about Andrew Shaw with his front loaded deal
3.9 cap hit but makes
5.5 this year
5.0 next

 

[BonkTastic]

Or how about Andrew Shaw with his front loaded deal
3.9 cap hit but makes
5.5 this year
5.0 next

Smith will be 29 years old after this season, going into UFA.

Shaw is 25.

The Habs ate up all of Shaw's "prime" with that contract, whereas Smith won't have that extended appeal.

 

[Sens]

Smith will be 29 years old after this season, going into UFA.

Shaw is 25.

The Habs ate up all of Shaw's "prime" with that contract, whereas Smith won't have that extended appeal.

Even if he pots 20 again?

 

[DylanSensFan]

Smith will be 29 years old after this season, going into UFA.

Shaw is 25.

The Habs ate up all of Shaw's "prime" with that contract, whereas Smith won't have that extended appeal.

Time flies... Smith is already that old?

 

[topshelf15]

Smith makes 2.25 this season... You're looking at a Beleskey type extention 3.8x4

According to whom??Like i have repeatedly said,if he pots 20 again we offer him a contract based on how we value him.We all know how he will score them ,and we also know that the only real wrinkle he has in terms of any tangiable offense.If somebody wants to overpay him fine then we walk away ,if its reasonable for us then iam not at all opposed to us resigning him

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Even if he pots 20 again?

Especially if he pots 20 again

 

[BonkTastic]

Even if he pots 20 again?

Let's cross that bridge if and when it happens.

 

[guyzeur]

Let's cross that bridge if and when it happens.

Considering that 5, 6 of his goals were the results of really poor goaltending, I would agree with you Bonkie

 

[BondraTime]

I'd rather put the glass slipper on somebody who is already hot than hope that the slipper makes a troll hot.

Unbelievably accurate. Fantastic post

I'd love for Smith to be able to score 25 on a regular basis. If it wasn't him that was riding shotgun with Stone, it would have been someone else who would have seen their career goal scoring completely eclipsed. Smith eclipsed his highest goal scoring totals going all the way back to his AAA midget days.

Smith is a 3rd liner, who if need be will fill in a top 6 role. We are a better team with him on our 3rd line and 2nd pp, if he is on it at all.

 

[FlyingJ]

Jesus dude ,you really need to look at most players throughout the history of the nhl that have created offense the exact same way Smith did last season.He played within his limits ,and scored from in front of the net .Played the role of garbage man to a tee,his shooting % is so high because of where he scored his goals.And also getting the opportunity ,to play with better players .

Dismissing him outright is pretty foolish on your part ,no reason for him not play the exact same way as he did last season.And no reason for the team not to use him in offensive situations either.He provides some grit in the top 9 and best of all a will to get to the front of the net

The big problem with your rational is that prior to this season Zack Smith has never been a high percentage shooter over a full season. He posted an 18.2 in 2009-10 when he played just 15 games while notching 11 shots and scoring 2 goals. His previous career high overa full season was 10.4 and he got off just 136 shots that season. He's never even averaged 2 shots a game over a season where he's played more than 15 games either. Prior to this season, his career shooting percentage was sub 10%. So your assumption that he'll continue to do this is based largely on that at 28 he's now magically figured it out, and the 370 or so games that came before are completely outwieghed by his recent stretch to end 2015-16.

But let's compare him to another "garbage man." Tomas Holmstrom was one of the better ones. Managed a career shooting percentage of 16.3, so yeah, his was high. In his 15 season career he shot over 20% just 3 times, and in 2 of those seasons he managed just 74 shots in 73 and 67 games respectively, failing to hit the 20 goal mark in both cases. The one year he managed 30? He got a career high 176 shots on net (he never even hit 150 in any other season). And even prior to his first 20% shooting season, he had managed to shoot over 10% in each of his first 4 seasons. The only to 20+% seasons that came consecutively for him were in the 05-06 and 06-07 seasons, when offense was high due to the crackdown on penalties after the lockout. And to top it all off, he played on some legitimate powerhouse teams with the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. I like our top 6, but no combination of Stone, Hoffman, Turris, Ryan, or Brassard comes close to matching Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

Point is, your comparison citing Smith as some quality "garbage man" really doesn't hold up. Andeven for the quality ones there tend to be sizable fluctuations in their shooting % and total shots from year to year.

Smith is a serviceable third liner. But to expect 20+ goals annually from here on is stretching it.

 

[BonkTastic]

Smith is a serviceable third liner. But to expect 20+ goals annually from here on is stretching it.

Yep.

I'm not saying that Smith can't replicate his success from last season, but the odds are definitely not in his favor.


Fun fact:
You know who else scored 25+ goals, unexpectedly, as a 27 year old? Chris Simon.

Simon's previous season had seen him record 3 goals in an injury-plagued campaign, and he followed up his unexpected 29 goal 1999-2000 season with a 10-goal effort the following year.

 

[topshelf15]

The big problem with your rational is that prior to this season Zack Smith has never been a high percentage shooter over a full season. He posted an 18.2 in 2009-10 when he played just 15 games while notching 11 shots and scoring 2 goals. His previous career high overa full season was 10.4 and he got off just 136 shots that season. He's never even averaged 2 shots a game over a season where he's played more than 15 games either. Prior to this season, his career shooting percentage was sub 10%. So your assumption that he'll continue to do this is based largely on that at 28 he's now magically figured it out, and the 370 or so games that came before are completely outwieghed by his recent stretch to end 2015-16.

But let's compare him to another "garbage man." Tomas Holmstrom was one of the better ones. Managed a career shooting percentage of 16.3, so yeah, his was high. In his 15 season career he shot over 20% just 3 times, and in 2 of those seasons he managed just 74 shots in 73 and 67 games respectively, failing to hit the 20 goal mark in both cases. The one year he managed 30? He got a career high 176 shots on net (he never even hit 150 in any other season). And even prior to his first 20% shooting season, he had managed to shoot over 10% in each of his first 4 seasons. The only to 20+% seasons that came consecutively for him were in the 05-06 and 06-07 seasons, when offense was high due to the crackdown on penalties after the lockout. And to top it all off, he played on some legitimate powerhouse teams with the likes of Datsyuk and Zetterberg. I like our top 6, but no combination of Stone, Hoffman, Turris, Ryan, or Brassard comes close to matching Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

Point is, your comparison citing Smith as some quality "garbage man" really doesn't hold up. Andeven for the quality ones there tend to be sizable fluctuations in their shooting % and total shots from year to year.

Smith is a serviceable third liner. But to expect 20+ goals annually from here on is stretching it.

You just agreed ,and then disagreed with what i said all on one paragraphThis post really wasnt nessesary ,never said i was all in on Smith.But i just was trying to make sure you understand that in some cases shooting% doesnt mean as much as most seem to think

 

[WaitingInVain]

If the prove to be better than iam all for it ,but we will have a much softer top 9 .So iam not yet convinced that Smith is an auto trade

Nick Paul will be the one pushing Zack Smith out, so the physicality is there. Big checks and the ability to own the front of the net. We saw a bit of it last year, and obviously there's hope that there is growth after NHL experience.

Centre is where we have lacked physicality with Zibanejad and Turris. Now they have Brassard, who unlike Turris can dish out the hits. Don't get me wrong, a tuned-in Zibanejad would have been exactly what the doctor ordered, however the proverbial ship sailed when the raw centre Logan Brown was drafted. Obviously the hope would be to find a #1C to supplant Brassard/Turris from the prospect pool, but they may luck out with White as a solid back-up plan.

Ultimately, if you have both Turris and Hoffman in your top 6, there will certainly be a presumptive 'physical mismatch'.