Zack Smith extension?? Yay or nay??

[Micklebot]

One thing to think about: say we don't re-sign Smith. Will the 3rd line replacement we get be as good as Smith at jumping up into the top 6 in a pinch due to line shuffling or injuries? He might be (Stone effect), but we KNOW Smith plays great there already.

Ok, so the question becomes what is more valuable to the team;

Smith, who can move up the lineup when needed

or

Whatever the return is for smith (late first? A second and a 3rd?)
Whatever player we sign instead of him (there are always guys like Pirri, Parenteau, Versteeg, ect who sign cheap)
Whatever we use the extra space for (I assuming we're talking about ~2 mil but it depends on who we go after as a replacement)

My point is that Smith is a nice commodity, but at 4 mil, he's becoming an expensive commodity.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If he finishes with 20 goals, Smith is a 4 million dollar player with term on the open market. If the Sens get him at 3.33 or something similar, it'll either be because Smith is out of his mind and is making the same mistake multiple middle 6ers before him have made by not taking advantage of their one shot at a big UFA payday, or it'll be because Smith and the team got creative and worked on a deal with significantly more term than other teams would be willing to offer. Something out of the box that we almost never see like what Nashville did with Jarnkrok when they signed him to a 6 year 2M deal. I'm not exactly predicting this because it is wacky, but an out of the box resolution would be an 7 year 2.5M contract with a NTC instead of a 4 year 4M contract that he might get on the open market.

Ottawa can want to sign Smith, but if they cannot match open market offers because they don't have the budget space that is an entirely different issue than them wanting Smith at 4M per season.

Ok, so the question becomes what is more valuable to the team;

Smith, who can move up the lineup when needed

or

Whatever the return is for smith (late first? A second and a 3rd?)
Whatever player we sign instead of him (there are always guys like Pirri, Parenteau, Versteeg, ect who sign cheap)
Whatever we use the extra space for (I assuming we're talking about ~2 mil but it depends on who we go after as a replacement)

My point is that Smith is a nice commodity, but at 4 mil, he's becoming an expensive commodity.

We're in playoff contention, so the odds of us trading Smith at the deadline are probably pretty low. It has been well documented that Dorion wants another forward, so as things are now with us contending for a playoff spot logically it makes no sense for us to expect him to trade Smith even if they aren't re-signing him.

Outside of pure luck, more often than not signing one of those left over bottom 6 type veterans isn't going to get you a season of hockey the calibre of Smith's. If that was the case, nobody would sign guys like Smith to long term contracts they'd just fill the gaps with those PTO/1M per type guys each season. Kelly and Pyatt are examples of those types of veteran depth guys that are available. Both have had great seasons in relation to what was expected of them, but neither come close to bringing what Smith has brought.

If Smith is the guy we've seen the last two years. Aka a 20 goal all around middle 6 type player, he's worth 4 million. Although, that doesn't exactly mean Ottawa as a budget team should re-sign him at that amount.

 

[JD1]

My point is that Smith is a nice commodity, but at 4 mil, he's becoming an expensive commodity.

yes Smith is a nice commodity but I think we are blowing smoke that he signs for 4 million. He will get more than that, even if he signs here in a hometown discount.

Assuming he maintains his pace and is a 2 time 20 goal man, go around the league and look at what other players have signed for. As is the current case with Bobby Ryan, buying up UFA years almost always comes with over paying - even with a hometown discount you'll overpay.

Belesky is at 3.8 for 5 years.

Clutterbuck is at 3.5 for 5 years

Who is the better play? by a little or by a fair margin?

and why would that guy sign for less than 4?

Boedker is another comparable. He signed last summer for 4 years and 16 M. He'd never scored 20 + in the NHL and he certainly doesn't have the versatility or jam that Smith has.

here's a list of what last year's UFAs signed for. if it comes up 2017 when you click it, change the year to 2016.

http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2016/ufa/

I think Smith has really made himself in to a useful hockey player and the organization has a very big decision to make on him.

 

[Micklebot]

yes Smith is a nice commodity but I think we are blowing smoke that he signs for 4 million. He will get more than that, even if he signs here in a hometown discount.

Assuming he maintains his pace and is a 2 time 20 goal man, go around the league and look at what other players have signed for. As is the current case with Bobby Ryan, buying up UFA years almost always comes with over paying - even with a hometown discount you'll overpay.

Belesky is at 3.8 for 5 years.

Clutterbuck is at 3.5 for 5 years

Who is the better play? by a little or by a fair margin?

and why would that guy sign for less than 4?

Boedker is another comparable. He signed last summer for 4 years and 16 M. He'd never scored 20 + in the NHL and he certainly doesn't have the versatility or jam that Smith has.

here's a list of what last year's UFAs signed for. if it comes up 2017 when you click it, change the year to 2016.

http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/2016/ufa/

I think Smith has really made himself in to a useful hockey player and the organization has a very big decision to make on him.

If he's asking for more than 4, all the more reason we should consider moving him at the deadline.

Also, Boedker paced at 51 pts per 82 the last 3 seasons, he may not be a goal scorer, but he is a heck of a lot more offensively gifted player than Smith and his 36 pts career high built of Stone setting him up.

 

[starling]

Mark Stone once made Lazar look good and was the main reason why Lazar wasn't sent back to juniors where he probably belonged. Let's not rush into things, shall we?

 

[Micklebot]

Mark Stone once made Lazar look good and was the main reason why Lazar wasn't sent back to juniors where he probably belonged. Let's not rush into things, shall we?

To be fair, I think that was Stone and Hoffman making Lazar look good.

 

[JD1]

If he's asking for more than 4, all the more reason we should consider moving him at the deadline.

Also, Boedker paced at 51 pts per 82 the last 3 seasons, he may not be a goal scorer, but he is a heck of a lot more offensively gifted player than Smith and his 36 pts career high built of Stone setting him up.

I'm not really sure that is a fair comment re Stone setting him up. Smith got a chance to play top 6 minutes last year for the first time and he did well with it. He's getting that same chance again the past 10 games this year and again he is doing very well with it. Boedker has played top 6 minutes most of his career. SJ signed him and at this point he's been a healthy scratch a few times this year and up to earlier this week getting a hat trick, he has 3 goals on the season. And Boedker would generally be considered a soft, skilled player, Smith is anything but.

My guess would be that if the teams were talking about swapping the players and the contracts were even, it would be SJ having to add to the deal.

I really don't know what to think of Smith, his play over the last season and a half has really surprised me. But given that play over a fairly sustained period now, I think he's going to get a big paycheque somewhere, bigger than 4.

 

[Sens]

Ok, so the question becomes what is more valuable to the team;

Smith, who can move up the lineup when needed

or

Whatever the return is for smith (late first? A second and a 3rd?)
Whatever player we sign instead of him (there are always guys like Pirri, Parenteau, Versteeg, ect who sign cheap)
Whatever we use the extra space for (I assuming we're talking about ~2 mil but it depends on who we go after as a replacement)

My point is that Smith is a nice commodity, but at 4 mil, he's becoming an expensive commodity.

This is proper management... I'd deal Smith for assets then replace him via UFA

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not really sure that is a fair comment re Stone setting him up. Smith got a chance to play top 6 minutes last year for the first time and he did well with it. He's getting that same chance again the past 10 games this year and again he is doing very well with it. Boedker has played top 6 minutes most of his career. SJ signed him and at this point he's been a healthy scratch a few times this year and up to earlier this week getting a hat trick, he has 3 goals on the season. And Boedker would generally be considered a soft, skilled player, Smith is anything but.

My guess would be that if the teams were talking about swapping the players and the contracts were even, it would be SJ having to add to the deal.

I really don't know what to think of Smith, his play over the last season and a half has really surprised me. But given that play over a fairly sustained period now, I think he's going to get a big paycheque somewhere, bigger than 4.

The thing is Boedker didn't get his contract based on his play this season, he got it based on being a 50+ pts player the prior 3 seasons (pace in one of them). Smith will be negotiating a contract on the merits of a 36 pts (25 goal) season, and his current season (37 pts, 19 goal pace). It really hasn't worked out for Boedker in SJ, but that doesn't change what his leverage was when he signed the deal.

Note for accuracy sake, Boedker was a healthy scratch in one game against the wild so far, and has played in 41 of SJ's 42 games to date, at least according to what I've seen. I did see one report suggesting the wild game was the second time he was scratched, but no indication of any other game he was actually scratched for (maybe he was just so invisible one night, they thought he was scrateched?)

 

[Cosmix]

I think Smith should be signed as he has proven to be a useful player who can score when playing with higher skilled forwards. He is also a physical player who is sorely needed on this team because Neil's career is ending soon. The forward players who should be upgraded are Kelly, Neil, Pyatt and Lazar.

 

[Micklebot]

This is proper management... I'd deal Smith for assets then replace him via UFA

Ideally, we replace him internally; UFA is generally expensive, or a lottery ticket hoping a bargain bin player exceeds expectations. For every Gagner out there, there's a Clarkson, Legwand, or other UFA bust waiting to happen.

Not sure we have the internal option though; Paul... not likely good enough, MacArthur... far from a sure thing to return, Perron is still a ways away. Varone and Akeson are both righties I think, as is White who may be available late in the year. McCormick is probably the highest LW on our depth chart, but he's no more than a depth callup imo.

White is the only guy with the potential to fill the role Smith does (well, he and MacArthur but we can't count on him), but he'd do it on the right side, which doesn't give us the same affect.

I guess in the end, it all depends on what the offers are for Smith. If they aren't good enough, we might end up just keeping him and letting him walk. ~20 games + playoffs of Smith if we're still in the mix could be worth more to us than the pick we get offered for him. (one extra round is a lot of money, so if we think Smith can help us get there, that might be more valuable in terms of opportunity cost than say a 2nd round pick).

 

[MaxTheLimit]

I would love to have Smith stay with the team. I think he's proven that he deserves $4M per year ( if indeed that's what he's looking for ). If he asks for that, someone will pay it. I don't know if he's a consistent 20 goal guy, no matter what the past 2 years show. I think he is a benefactor of good circumstance and chemistry.

However, numbers are numbers. People will see his numbers over the past couple of years, and the mix of decent skills with gritty play. If the Sens aren't willing to pay him $4M per year, someone will. If I were the GM, I wouldn't go higher than $3.75M per year. If that doesn't get it done, I'd move him for assets and wish him well. He's earned it, and there'd be no hard feelings from me.

I don't think the left side is as bad as people have mentioned. Our top LW is obviously Hoffman, and I like what Dzingel brings on the 2nd line. On the 3rd line, I think MacArthur healthy would do a fine job chipping in if he is close to as impactful as he was when he last played. I don't much think the #4LW is a serious concern.

If MacArthur isn't going to be capable, or is only suited to bottom line duties now, the $4M save could be enough to bring in a guy who will spot fill until guys develop. I wonder if the Sens would be able to grab some guys off cap tight teams like Pearson from the Kings, or Tatar from the Wings. Tatar is a legit 20 goal guy who seems to be out of favor in Detroit. Pearson hasn't hit 20 goals with the Kings. But there is a chance he could in the right situation ( playing with Stone ) on the Sens.

Other names to look at could be Teräväinen out of Carolina. But they are probably going to keep him. I wonder if Berglund would be interested in coming to Ottawa to play a bit of a bigger role. He's been supplanted by the younger guys on the blues. He is still able to produce in a 2nd / 3rd line capacity though.

I'd like to keep Smith, but for $4M there may be other options... Some of the names up there may be willing to accept some shorter contracts than Smith would. Maybe even for sub $4 for a couple...

 

[JD1]

The thing is Boedker didn't get his contract based on his play this season, he got it based on being a 50+ pts player the prior 3 seasons (pace in one of them). Smith will be negotiating a contract on the merits of a 36 pts (25 goal) season, and his current season (37 pts, 19 goal pace). It really hasn't worked out for Boedker in SJ, but that doesn't change what his leverage was when he signed the deal.

Note for accuracy sake, Boedker was a healthy scratch in one game against the wild so far, and has played in 41 of SJ's 42 games to date, at least according to what I've seen. I did see one report suggesting the wild game was the second time he was scratched, but no indication of any other game he was actually scratched for (maybe he was just so invisible one night, they thought he was scrateched?)

i understand your view, Boedker had multiple 50 point seasons.

The point with Smith is that when he gets top 6 opportunities, he has proven he can produce at top 6 rates while also providing a physical component. If he pots 20 again this year given top 6 opportunity, because of that he will get UFA offers greater than 4 * 4.

 

[JD1]

the more I think about this, Smith has 34 goals and 53 points in the last season and a half. But how much of that time has been in a top 6 role? I think he's been top 6 with us for maybe 10 games this year? How many last year? IIRC he wasn't firmly in the top 6 until after Turris got shut down? I think pace wise, his time spent in a top 6 role he's been putting up better numbers than 20 goals, 50 points kind of numbers.

 

[Holdurbreathe]

i understand your view, Boedker had multiple 50 point seasons.

The point with Smith is that when he gets top 6 opportunities, he has proven he can produce at top 6 rates while also providing a physical component. If he pots 20 again this year given top 6 opportunity, because of that he will get UFA offers greater than 4 * 4.

I don't believe Smith has to score 20 to get a contract in the $4M range considering the fact he has become a very important player for the Sens.

I think those that are suggesting Stone makes Smith what he is are just not paying attention that closely.

Smith is the guy generating speed through the neutral zone causing the D to back in, he goes to the scoring areas without fear and he has jam on the walls.

Now while Stone has made some beauty passes, without Smith's game the passes likely don't happen.

IMO Smith deserves $3.5 - $4M and the talk suggesting a budget team spending that much a Smith might be a mistake are just ignoring what is wrong with this team.

The top six have been a huge disappointment for the investment and Dorion needs to fix that mess before he considers for one second not resigning Smith at the range mentioned above.

 

[MaxTheLimit]

I think those that are suggesting Stone makes Smith what he is are just not paying attention that closely.

Smith is the guy generating speed through the neutral zone causing the D to back in, he goes to the scoring areas without fear and he has jam on the walls.

Now while Stone has made some beauty passes, without Smith's game the passes likely don't happen.

While you could be right, I think it should be pointed out that there is little precedent for Smith producing without Stone, while there seems to be growing evidence that Stone makes the players on his line better. Not to say Smith wouldn't produce in a top 6 role without Stone for sure. Also not saying Stone would have the same success without Smith. However, numbers and eye test ( my eye test that is, I don't speak for you ) suggest that the driver of the game on that line is more Stone than Smith.

 

[JD1]

Smith drives Stone, Stone drives Smith ....who knows, but it does work.

What doesn't work in terms of Smith generating points is GSN, or any combination of Smith playing in our bottom 6 with a bunch of guys that have ho hands / no offensive hockey IQ. There are not too many people in hockey that could have Greening and Neil from a few years ago on their line and generate a ton of points

 

[Holdurbreathe]

While you could be right, I think it should be pointed out that there is little precedent for Smith producing without Stone, while there seems to be growing evidence that Stone makes the players on his line better. Not to say Smith wouldn't produce in a top 6 role without Stone for sure. Also not saying Stone would have the same success without Smith. However, numbers and eye test ( my eye test that is, I don't speak for you ) suggest that the driver of the game on that line is more Stone than Smith.

Not sure a line succeeds with just one catalyst.

It generally takes a combination of skills that mesh for a line to have success, Stone and Smith just work well together.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I think Smith should be signed as he has proven to be a useful player who can score when playing with higher skilled forwards. He is also a physical player who is sorely needed on this team because Neil's career is ending soon. The forward players who should be upgraded are Kelly, Neil, Pyatt and Lazar.

Agreed. Smith is part of the solution. I don't think 4x4 is outragious

 

[Micklebot]

I don't believe Smith has to score 20 to get a contract in the $4M range considering the fact he has become a very important player for the Sens.

I think those that are suggesting Stone makes Smith what he is are just not paying attention that closely.

Smith is the guy generating speed through the neutral zone causing the D to back in, he goes to the scoring areas without fear and he has jam on the walls.

Now while Stone has made some beauty passes, without Smith's game the passes likely don't happen.

IMO Smith deserves $3.5 - $4M and the talk suggesting a budget team spending that much a Smith might be a mistake are just ignoring what is wrong with this team.

The top six have been a huge disappointment for the investment and Dorion needs to fix that mess before he considers for one second not resigning Smith at the range mentioned above.

You probably could have made the exact same argument about Greening, Michalek, Regin, or Butler with Spezza.

 

[Whippet]

Proves his worth once again.

I think he is fantastic for this team. He is like a Swiss army knife that provides balance in between the lines in our roster and works in all situations on the ice. He has to be resigned. Losing him would be a big loss in my opinion

 

[JD1]

You probably could have made the exact same argument about Greening, Michalek, Regin, or Butler with Spezza.

one of these things is not like the others

 

[Icelevel]

been better than brassard

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Smith was outstanding on the PK last night vs the Pens. He rang one off the post , had the goalie beat and he had a great chance in close. Also instrumental in the 4th goal to seal the deal. HM to Brassard for the nice pass to Stone

 

[armani]

Smith was outstanding on the PK last night vs the Pens. He rang one off the post , had the goalie beat and he had a great chance in close. Also instrumental in the 4th goal to seal the deal. HM to Brassard for the nice pass to Stone

Zack Smith is becoming a key part of the core. As good as Dzingle has been, if there was a choice to sign one I will sign Smith without hesitation.

He is having another solid season.