Yzerman's 1997 Playoffs

[Voight]

Admittedly, that was back then non-Canadians were forbidden to win the Conn Smythe (Leetch being the only one).

They technically still are , but the voters have opened up in recent years (Z, Malkin, Quick, Kane)

 

[Hobnobs]

I thought Yzerman played with Shanahan, while Fedorov played with Kozlov, and I want to say Brown.

Nah in the finals this was the line up

Fedorov/Sandström - Yzerman - McCarty
Shanahan - Larionov - Lapointe
Kozlov - Fedorov - Brown
Maltby - Draper - McCarty/Kocur

and as you know Bowman would juggle a bit.

 

[quoipourquoi]

As Dr No said a few posts later in response to someone else, it was talked about as a thing at the time. I completely understand that Yzerman was a fine 2nd choice in 2002, and all that, but there was talk at the time about whether a European could truly win the Conn Smythe with the Don Cherrys of the media insinuating that it's tough to be the most valuable player in the playoffs when you didn't grow up wanting to win the Stanley Cup, etc. It wasn't until Lidstrom actually won that nonsense like that was mainly put to rest.

I really disagree with all of this. Just because Don Cherry might have (probably) said something doesn't mean the voters took an ethnocentric agenda on their ballots. Jari Kurri was getting Conn Smythe consideration in the press back in 1985... and then no other European players had a serious shot at it until 1997.

Fedorov wasn't just competing against Vernon and Yzerman - he was competing against his two preceding playoffs that were better. That's always going to make voters shy away from a star and vote for the player exceeding expectations. That was Vernon.

The idea that it wasn't until 2002 that people put anti-European feelings aside for the Conn Smythe completely ignores the outrageously praised runs by Bure, Kolzig, Forsberg, and Hasek where the media really couldn't justify voting for them no matter how glowing the articles were.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

I vote for random chance.

I did a Poisson simulation of 3000 "Yzerman postseasons", each with 20 games played, using a five-year average points per game centered around 1997 (92 points in 95 games). These were the results:

POINTS | PROB
7|0.0%
8|0.2%
9|0.3%
10|0.6%
11|1.3%
12|2.7%
13|3.9%
14|4.9%
15|5.9%
16|8.1%
17|7.5%
18|8.8%
19|9.5%
20|9.1%
21|8.2%
22|6.9%
23|5.9%
24|4.5%
25|4.1%
26|2.9%
27|2.0%
28|1.1%
29|0.6%
30|0.4%
31|0.4%
32|0.2%
33|0.0%
34|0.1%
35|0.1%

And of course, a Poisson distribution assumes that Yzerman performs exactly the same way each game, when in reality his performances would vary (meaning that this distribution would be spread out even more than this).

Doesn't the Poisson distribution have a time factor involved? I don't really remember it well, but I remember it being X something happens every Y minutes.

 

[Doctor No]

You're close - the Poisson process is what you describe, and it comes from a Poisson distribution as well.

 

[Big Phil]

Admittedly, that was back then non-Canadians were forbidden to win the Conn Smythe (Leetch being the only one).

That was often the idea and there was an unspoken (or even spoken) stigma of a European player winning the Smythe. However, there was never a time before 1994 that a non-Canadian should have won it either. Even in 1994 with all that went on with Messier's prediction and production and stuff if they wanted to they could have picked Messier and people would have been happy with that. Leetch was just too good that spring though and perhaps through the first three rounds you give the nod to Messier, but Leetch just really cranked it up in the final.

Other than that, nothing before 1994 stands out. 1995 and 1996 were just fine. 1997 is the only one that makes you wonder a bit. 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 were all just how I'd have done it more or less. Maybe Sakic in 2001 and Belfour or Modano in 1999. But if 2002 was the first time a European wins it then that's fine too. Other than 1997 there really isn't a time one could have won it either. Even in 2002 I remember the idea that Yzerman didn't win it was a bit of a shock.

Hard to believe, but only three non-North Americans have won the Smythe in NHL history. Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Malkin. More Americans though with 4 altogether.

Yzerman gets extra points for being a leader and finally shattering the choke label.

That was a big part of it too, plus the fact that he was the captain and really stepped it up defensively. But I think Fedorov may have had the better postseason. However, no Red Wing in 1997 stood out like a sort thumb, so Vernon winning it has never bothered me.

 

[Hobnobs]

That was often the idea and there was an unspoken (or even spoken) stigma of a European player winning the Smythe. However, there was never a time before 1994 that a non-Canadian should have won it either. Even in 1994 with all that went on with Messier's prediction and production and stuff if they wanted to they could have picked Messier and people would have been happy with that. Leetch was just too good that spring though and perhaps through the first three rounds you give the nod to Messier, but Leetch just really cranked it up in the final.

Other than that, nothing before 1994 stands out. 1995 and 1996 were just fine. 1997 is the only one that makes you wonder a bit. 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 were all just how I'd have done it more or less. Maybe Sakic in 2001 and Belfour or Modano in 1999. But if 2002 was the first time a European wins it then that's fine too. Other than 1997 there really isn't a time one could have won it either. Even in 2002 I remember the idea that Yzerman didn't win it was a bit of a shock.

Hard to believe, but only three non-North Americans have won the Smythe in NHL history. Lidstrom, Zetterberg and Malkin. More Americans though with 4 altogether.



That was a big part of it too, plus the fact that he was the captain and really stepped it up defensively. But I think Fedorov may have had the better postseason. However, no Red Wing in 1997 stood out like a sort thumb, so Vernon winning it has never bothered me.

tbh. Hasek shouldve won it in 99.

 

[Big Phil]

tbh. Hasek shouldve won it in 99.

No, I was alright with Nieuwendyk doing it. 6 game winning goals was the record at that time until Richards broke it in 2004. Around here you'll get some people thinking Modano should have won it anyway, or Belfour. With a Sabres win it is Hasek for sure though.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

When Hasek didn't necessarily outperform Belfour, it's hard to give it to the goalie on the losing team.

IMO, Modano should have won it in 1999. I do think a lot of the talk about Nieuwendyk being the "real leader" of that team (instead of their actual captain, Hatcher) reeked of Canadian-centric thinking.

 

[Hobnobs]

When Hasek didn't necessarily outperform Belfour, it's hard to give it to the goalie on the losing team.

IMO, Modano should have won it in 1999. I do think a lot of the talk about Nieuwendyk being the "real leader" of that team (instead of their actual captain, Hatcher) reeked of Canadian-centric thinking.

Maybe not but he was the most VALUABLE player in that playoffs. Well, atleast from my perspective. Modano wouldve been a good choice too. Tbh there were three americans and and czech that put up smythe worthy performances and they gave the award to a canadian for a Mickey Mouse stat type record.

 

[toob]

Probably mostly puck luck as he certainly played better (only talking offensively ofc defensively he was amazing) than he produced

Also add a bad start in the quarterfinals along with the rest of the team and a reinjured knee in Anaheim but honestly he just hit posts and the side of the net too many times he should have produced better, certainly not as good of an year playwise as 98, 96, 87. 2002 saw a great start but by the finals Yzerman was basically done with his knee and he had Fedorov doing the centering and skating. Still he managed to produce in 2002 not sure why it didnt happen in 97.

Yzerman only played with Shanahan regularly for the first 3rd of the year. He was playing offensively with a sniper and as such he was on pace for 100 points. Going back in a more defensive role playing with non offensive linemates for the rest of the year and playoffs hurt Yzerman's numbers as he had already lost a step from the days he could carry a line offensively doesnt matter who was playing with him. McCarty, Errey, Sandstrom, etc arent great for your ES scoring when you are past your prime.

As for the Conn Smythe talk it was quite apparent he was one of the main candidates because although his production sucked he was playing phenomenally defensively, had the narrative of a long waiting captain who changed his game, and had a bunch of timely goals and general plays like big blocked shots or the battles with Lindros. Closest parallel i can think of is Stevens in 2000 where the media gushed about a player for reasons other than points.

Ive noticed everyone on hf acts surprised that Fedorov didnt win it but honestly that wasnt the sentiment at the time. It was a team effort and DRW had no real standouts like the next year when Yzerman won unanimously.

Yzerman did get a lot of support for the 97 CS. See the end of this clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUUccGjdAPE for an example. The Hockey Scouting Report 98-99 said that Yzerman should have won in 97 like he did in 98.

For the voting you need to look it up in a library but 6/8/97 USA Today Red Wings notebook by Cynthia Lambert states: "Vernon edged out Yzerman in the closest vote in the 33-year history of the award, first won by Jean Beliveau in 1965. Two points separated Vernon and Yzerman."

Articles in Detroit newspapers generally threw out names as varied as Vernon, Yzerman, Fedorov, Konstantinov, Lidstrom, Shanahan, Murphy, Kozlov though Vernon got slightly more support and ultimately won.

I personally am cool with Vernon winning i still remember the 15 save 3rd period against Colorado. I liked Shanahan or Yzerman myself, and the only thing that surprises me is that Fedorov didnt get a bit more support. Not that he was robbed or anything. If anything Fedorov rly got shortchanged in support in 02. I say basically none and he had a very good argument as the CS winner then. I would have taken both Fedorov and Yzerman over Lidstrom.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

When Hasek didn't necessarily outperform Belfour, it's hard to give it to the goalie on the losing team.

IMO, Modano should have won it in 1999. I do think a lot of the talk about Nieuwendyk being the "real leader" of that team (instead of their actual captain, Hatcher) reeked of Canadian-centric thinking.

I think there were two things that helped Nieuwendyk win the Smythe that year:

1. He led the postseason with six game winning goals (the next closest player had four, and the next closest Star had three). That tied him for the single season record (Sakic also had six in 1996). I know that GWG can be a misleading statistic but I looked at the summaries from those six games and in five instances Nieuwendyk either scored what proved to be the winning goal in overtime or with less than 11 minutes left in the third period, so he certainly was a clutch scorer that spring.

2. Maybe this is a stretch, but maybe there was some residual credit for "pushing the team over the top" since the Stars mortgaged their future by trading Iginla to the Stars for Nieudendyk. The same reasoning probably explain why Butch Goring won a Conn Smythe for the Islanders over Bossy or Potvin in 1981. This is probably a stretch though, given that Nieudendyk had been with the team for several years by that point.

 

[Big Phil]

Maybe not but he was the most VALUABLE player in that playoffs. Well, atleast from my perspective. Modano wouldve been a good choice too. Tbh there were three americans and and czech that put up smythe worthy performances and they gave the award to a canadian for a Mickey Mouse stat type record.

You're still talking about 1999? If so I am trying to figure out who the three Americans are that outperformed Nieuwendyk. Not to mention the Czech. So are the three Americans Modano, Hull and Hatcher? The Czech being Hasek? Or is Hull still considered Canadian and the other American is Langenbrunner? If so, I just don't see it. Only Modano is a guy you can make a case for as being better than Nieuwendyk that spring. Then Belfour as the goalie that could have grabbed it. Hasek didn't have that wow factor of a spring to grab it from the winning team. You really have to stand out to do this and I don't think it was obvious at all.

 

[Hardyvan123]

I've seen this claim before (Yzerman close runner up to Vernon in 1997), and I find it incredible, considering how far ahead Fedorov should have been. I'd chalk it up to overly large effect of nationalism in hockey at the time, but that wouldn't explain why Yzerman would have finished ahead of Shanahan:

http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/DET/1997.html

(Just going by stats, Shanahan looks better than Yzerman, but it was a long time ago, and I don't remember who was more visually impressive between the two. I do remember feeling Fedorov was robbed at the time, however).

_________

Back on topic, Yzerman's 13 points were tied for 3rd on the team, so it's not like he did poorly. The Wings were a deep, defense-first team. Only Fedorov (20) and Shanahan (17) outscored Yzerman.

Basically this.

If we had TGF and TGA for players for the playoffs I'd bet that Yzerman was simply "unlucky" that year in terms of points but either way Feds was the guy who deserved that Conn Smythe.

He and Potvin have hands down the best 4 consecutive year playoff runs without a Conn Smythe in modern history (post 1967)

 

[BayStreetBully]

Yzerman did get a lot of support for the 97 CS. See the end of this clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUUccGjdAPE for an example. The Hockey Scouting Report 98-99 said that Yzerman should have won in 97 like he did in 98.

For the voting you need to look it up in a library but 6/8/97 USA Today Red Wings notebook by Cynthia Lambert states: "Vernon edged out Yzerman in the closest vote in the 33-year history of the award, first won by Jean Beliveau in 1965. Two points separated Vernon and Yzerman."

Well, there you have it. I couldn't provide a source, but turns out I didn't imagine it in my head. I was hoping I wasn't crazy!