Youth Brings Hope for Blue Jackets

[LastWordArmy]

A look at Columbus' youth movement.

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2016/10/12/columbus-blue-jackets-look-youth-hope/

Click to read more...

 

[Crede777]

Youth Brings Hope for Blue Jackets

As a CBJ fan, this is a totally new situation to be in and so I am extremely optimistic. /sarcasm

 

[Monk]

As a CBJ fan, this is a totally new situation to be in and as a result is one I'm extremely excited for. /sarcasm

So to be clear, you don't think this time is any different than it's been in the past?

 

[Crede777]

So to be clear, you don't think this time is any different than it's been in the past?

While the team may experience inconsistent, middling success, I do not believe that it can become a true contender until it drafts or acquires a top-15 center. To do so, it will need to either luck out and win the draft lottery or set itself back by giving up the exorbitant cost to acquire one.

This is because, as a rule, the team has been constructed around inconsistent, middling players.

 

[Monk]

While the team may experience inconsistent, middling success, I do not believe that it can become a true contender until it drafts or acquires a top-15 center. To do so, it will need to either luck out and win the draft lottery or set itself back by giving up the exorbitant cost to acquire one.

This is because, as a rule, the team has been constructed around inconsistent, middling players.

That's fair, but for me the main difference between "then" and "now" can be explained just by the fact that Dubois isn't on the team. I think we have a much better chance now to draft a player who can become a top-15 center in the NHL, because he has a much better chance to develop properly.

 

[HtG]

I sure hope Dubois can become a top 15 center.

 

[Crede777]

I sure hope Dubois can become a top 15 center.

While I would not rule it out, I think it is fair to say that he was not drafted with that expectation.

 

[EdwardG]

Well, it's something new to try since their habit of non-game changing players to "fair" deals at the peak of their value (Dubi, Foligno, Tyutin) hasn't been working out too well. Folks, this franchise isn't the Browns of the NHL (that's Edmonton), but they still seem like the Jaguars.

 

[major major]

While I would not rule it out, I think it is fair to say that he was not drafted with that expectation.

I'm not sure what this means. "Expectation" = >50% chance?

To draft any player who has >50% chance of being a top 15 center must be an extreme rarity, all the more so given that many of those 15 spots are occupied by centers who did not have as much chance when they were drafted (Kopi, Getz, Giroux, Toews, Bergeron, Backstrom).

I think it's fair to say Dubois has as much chance at becoming a top 15 center as any of those guys were given when they were drafted.

 

[Crede777]

I'm not sure what this means. "Expectation" = >50% chance?

To draft any player who has >50% chance of being a top 15 center must be an extreme rarity, all the more so given that many of those 15 spots are occupied by centers who did not have as much chance when they were drafted (Kopi, Getz, Giroux, Toews, Bergeron, Backstrom).

I think it's fair to say Dubois has as much chance at becoming a top 15 center as any of those guys were given when they were drafted.

Yes, a player who is expected to become a top center when drafted is rare. A John Tavares or Auston Matthews doesn't come around very often. But it's something the franchise is desperately lacking and is something the team cannot turn the corner without. So they need to pay whatever crazy price it would cost to move up to 1st overall and get that. Until then, the team will be just spinning its wheels.

Basically, I think it is time to abandon the "blue collar" defensive hockey image the Jackets are trying to foster. It's nice to have a couple of character guys who play a tough, physical game, but every team also needs a couple of high octane game breaking forwards. Even St. Louis who we are trying desperately to emulate has Tarasenko. And we don't have any, and probably don't have any in the pipeline.

 

[Dk Math]

While the team may experience inconsistent, middling success, I do not believe that it can become a true contender until it drafts or acquires a top-15 center. To do so, it will need to either luck out and win the draft lottery or set itself back by giving up the exorbitant cost to acquire one.

This is because, as a rule, the team has been constructed around inconsistent, middling players.

Sometime ago, I saw a documentary about the creation of the Great Red Machine. Even seeing today, it exited. Impressive to see them make The Great one, and the other Canadian NHL'ers of the time, look like total confused.
That even so, that to my eyes, the referees was clearly political biased.

The point is that when these player came to NHL and played on different teams, they did not to well. They where big disappointments on all their teams.
That is until the their complete first line ended in Detroit. Then they won Cups for the Red Wings, making the other player looking like disoriented children.

Real teamwork beat any team made just of stars.
It's is and was about knowing 1000 of system an how to react as a group, by instinct, depending partly on your team, but also on the opposite team position and movement.
So you can make passes and receive them in a tempo and when moving in high speed that never seen before or since.
We will probably never again see such good TEAM ever again.

The point here is, that kind of chemistry take time to build. No professional teams has that kind of loyalty, needed to build such level of group instinct, but line juggling sure does not help build anything like group instinct.
Remember as individual player, they where nothing special...

 

[major major]

Yes, a player who is expected to become a top center when drafted is rare. A John Tavares or Auston Matthews doesn't come around very often. But it's something the franchise is desperately lacking and is something the team cannot turn the corner without. So they need to pay whatever crazy price it would cost to move up to 1st overall and get that. Until then, the team will be just spinning its wheels.

Basically, I think it is time to abandon the "blue collar" defensive hockey image the Jackets are trying to foster. It's nice to have a couple of character guys who play a tough, physical game, but every team also needs a couple of high octane game breaking forwards. Even St. Louis who we are trying desperately to emulate has Tarasenko. And we don't have any, and probably don't have any in the pipeline.

Some things wrong with that approach, in random order:

I think we stand a very good chance of developing a Tarasenko level talent without a 1st overall, and you have no guarantee of getting one at 1st overall.

Maybe you don't mean Tarasenko level, and you mean Matthews level. I'm not privy to trade discussions but I'm positive the Jackets were one of the teams that made "crazy offers" for Matthews, which of course were all rejected. Should the Jackets have had a higher willingness to pay for Matthews than the Leafs did (the only way a deal would be plausible)? No.

Who was the high octane game breaking forward on the great Bruins teams of a few years back? It was a bunch of excellent ~60 pt players. That's certainly not impossible for the young Jackets to shape into. Numbers wise it's actually a likelihood they end up with a similar spread of scoring.

It's all old-hat coming from me but the Jackets aren't short on offence. They score plenty. They are not a good defensive team. I don't know who is still eating up this "defensive hockey image".

I've also said it a mazillion times but the Jackets don't have a talent problem. The problem right now is that the talent is a bunch of kids. Where were guys like Keith and Weber when they were the same age as our defensive gems? In Norfolk and Milwaukee.

 

[Crede777]

Some things wrong with that approach, in random order:

I think we stand a very good chance of developing a Tarasenko level talent without a 1st overall, and you have no guarantee of getting one at 1st overall.

Maybe you don't mean Tarasenko level, and you mean Matthews level. I'm not privy to trade discussions but I'm positive the Jackets were one of the teams that made "crazy offers" for Matthews, which of course were all rejected. Should the Jackets have had a higher willingness to pay for Matthews than the Leafs did (the only way a deal would be plausible)? No.

Who was the high octane game breaking forward on the great Bruins teams of a few years back? It was a bunch of excellent ~60 pt players. That's certainly not impossible for the young Jackets to shape into. Numbers wise it's actually a likelihood they end up with a similar spread of scoring.

It's all old-hat coming from me but the Jackets aren't short on offence. They score plenty. They are not a good defensive team. I don't know who is still eating up this "defensive hockey image".

I've also said it a mazillion times but the Jackets don't have a talent problem. The problem right now is that the talent is a bunch of kids. Where were guys like Keith and Weber when they were the same age as our defensive gems? In Norfolk and Milwaukee.

This is exactly the wrong approach and why the Jackets won't succeed until they change.

Time and again I have been insisting that the Boston approach worked for all of one season about 5 years ago. The league has vjanged. That approach is no longer valid.

 

[CalBuckeyeRob]

While I would not rule it out, I think it is fair to say that he was not drafted with that expectation.

Given where they picked him and the option they passed on, they better see him much more like RyJo than another Brandon Dubinsky type.

 

[blahblah]

And reality crushes all hope...