Your value of Cody Ceci

What would you be ok with Ceci signed for?


  • Total voters
    95

LeProspector

AINEC
Feb 14, 2017
4,745
5,291
He’s a youngish top4 defenceman that plays a lot of minutes.
Whether he deserves it or not, being in the top 4 or playing those minutes does in fact matter come a new contract. Since he wants a long term deal it’ll cost the Senators north of 4M to keep him.
Although it is up for debate he is worth that kind of contract, that’s the going rate for youngish defenceman like him.
 

BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
15,229
10,452
Yukon
Sounds like great asset management there

By all means, let's continue to invest long term money into borderline NHLers. At least we know what we'll get out of that. Its last place finishes and losing star players due to financial reasons but the real fans are enjoying it so carry on.
We're just thinking pro actively here so that we don't have another rebuild forced on to us because management wasted half their budget on replacement level players.

We're told to accept the rebuild. Okay, well lets not repeat what led to the last one.
 

coladin

Registered User
Sep 18, 2009
11,781
4,476
By all means, let's continue to invest long term money into borderline NHLers. At least we know what we'll get out of that. Its last place finishes and losing star players due to financial reasons but the real fans are enjoying it so carry on.
Yup, but let him walk though. Brilliant asset management. Meanwhile NHL talking heads all think he has value . But you would let him walk. Brilliant.
 

coladin

Registered User
Sep 18, 2009
11,781
4,476
We're just thinking pro actively here so that we don't have another rebuild forced on to us because management wasted half their budget on replacement level players.

We're told to accept the rebuild. Okay, well lets not repeat what led to the last one.
He can be traded. FQL said not to qualify and let him walk. I thought asset management was important around here.
 

SENATOR

Registered User
Feb 6, 2004
1,968
808
Ottawa
If you trade Ceci now, he is worth no more then the 3 round pick. What 4 million)))? I would trade him and draft Artemi Knyazev in the third round,.
 

BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
15,229
10,452
Yukon
He can be traded. FQL said not to qualify and let him walk. I thought asset management was important around here.
Missed that, and if he can be dealt for anything lets do it, but not sure I share the opinion that he holds much value on the market with his QO looming over anyone that acquires him.

His real value comes when a team doesn't qualify him and he can be paid more in line with what he brings.
 
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FolignoQuantumLeap

Don't Hold The Door
Mar 16, 2009
31,084
7,399
Ottawa
He can be traded. FQL said not to qualify and let him walk. I thought asset management was important around here.
"He can be traded" and yet he hasn't been. He was obviously on the market and there were no takers. That isn't likely to change. MAYBE we can get a conditional 5th/6th or something. If that's the case, then by all means go ahead but I don't think anyone will at this point.

Asset management is important and available cash for players is a limited asset. Don't waste it on more players who have been tanking the team.
 
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Mr Hat

Registered User
Oct 24, 2017
555
556
Kelowna
So like when we traded for Duchene or Brassard?

This was Chabot's first full year in the NHL. He's a rookie.

What? No, we need to roll the dice on some of these prospects and picks reaching their potential over the next 3 seasons. GMPD has made that our only option for success. Just let these guys develop and tank hard for one more elite prospect. We just hit the reset button. It's time to wait and see and only retain top level talent to long term contacts.

Chabot is not a rookie. He played more than 25 games last year. That's the NHL rule to be rookie eligible. If he was a rookie he would have been in the Calder conversation all year. And we're also talking about next year, technically his third season.
 
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Clayonator

Registered User
Aug 11, 2018
2,380
1,423
Vancouver
"He can be traded" and yet he hasn't been. He was obviously on the market and there were no takers. That isn't likely to change. MAYBE we can get a conditional 5th/6th or something. If that's the case, then by all means go ahead but I don't think anyone will at this point.

Asset management is important and available cash for players is a limited asset. Don't waste it on more players who have been tanking the team.

No one is willing to bite on the inflated former first rounder and local boy enhanced price tag. Should have moved him for Pearson when we had the chance. Before that in the Duchene package. Before that for Drouin. And before that for Hall. A conditional 5th or 6th will be too rich for their blood before long.
 

Peptic Balcers

Registered User
May 1, 2010
1,586
1,283
Ottawa, Canada
I voted not at all because the answer is "trade his rights at the draft"

Just out of curiosity, does anyone know if a player that signed for less than their qualifying offer?
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
65,009
49,542
You can get 4.3 ish million for 1 year and be a UFA... just suffer thru arbitration again. or accept a 5 year 3 million$ contract and we will tell you, you are great.
 

BondraTime

Registered User
Nov 20, 2005
28,481
23,063
East Coast
All I know, is if we plan to compete in the NHL playoffs within 3 years as the GM laid out, I have zero faith if we have Ceci in a top 4 role (as his contrast would dictate) signed to a long term deal trying to compete.
 

danielpalfredsson

youtube dot com /watch?v=CdqMZ_s7Y6k
Aug 14, 2013
16,575
9,269
I think what they are going to try and do is sign him to a 5x5 deal and backload all the cash with the rationale being that year 1 is an RFA year so it should be cheaper, and year 2 is a potential lockout so it is better for Ceci if he has a low year 2 salary.

Then when Seattle comes in, I think they either try to trade Ceci, or (assuming we've developed 3 good defenders to protect), expose him to Seattle, who they'd expect to take him, which would then protect our second most valuable exposed player, and rid them of Ceci @ 6 or 7 million per season (if he has a 5M AAV that is back loaded).

The logic being, whatever asset they are being offered for Ceci right now is worth less than whoever their 2nd best exposed player would be. They get to keep Ceci for 2 years to eat up minutes on a bad team and get shelled against top competition instead of throwing prospects/young NHLers under the bus with that job.

Of course, that backfires if....Seattle doesn't take Ceci, or if there is no market for him.

3 years from now, the cap should be in the 90M range, so if Ceci can be perceived as a #4 RD, 5M won't be that big of a ticket. If he is perceived as a tire fire, it will be a tough contract to shed.
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
65,009
49,542
My preference ,, in the context of the rebuild, is to look at this as an opportunity to trade Ceci for a prospect / pick rather than sign him to term and salary payable to top 4 D.

I would not want the risk of a 1 year walk to UFA.. and him possibly getting injured . That would be my plan B, but If I can get anything decent for him , I trade him
 
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aragorn

Do The Right Thing
Aug 8, 2004
28,471
9,001
I would consider packaging Ceci with our 1st overall pick at this yr's draft to move up to acquire Cozens or Dach or even trade Ceci for another 1st rd pick in the teens or low twenties. Regardless of what people think Ceci has value, he's 6'3" PMD who plays big minutes, is a right shot & if put in the right role can improve a team's capabilities on a playoff team for $5 mil per yr. GB tried to make Ceci a shutdown D which simply didn't work, but he was to stubborn to change or even notice that it wasn't working, he's a PMD not a shiudown D. If Ottawa can draft Seider RD than the need for Ceci diminishes.
 

BondraTime

Registered User
Nov 20, 2005
28,481
23,063
East Coast
I would consider packaging Ceci with our 1st overall pick at this yr's draft to move up to acquire Cozens or Dach or even trade Ceci for another 1st rd pick in the teens or low twenties. Regardless of what people think Ceci has value, he's 6'3" PMD who plays big minutes, is a right shot & if put in the right role can improve a team's capabilities on a playoff team for $5 mil per yr. GB tried to make Ceci a shutdown D which simply didn't work, but he was to stubborn to change or even notice that it wasn't working, he's a PMD not a shiudown D. If Ottawa can draft Seider RD than the need for Ceci diminishes.
Neither scenario is realistic unfortunately
 

FolignoQuantumLeap

Don't Hold The Door
Mar 16, 2009
31,084
7,399
Ottawa
I would consider packaging Ceci with our 1st overall pick at this yr's draft to move up to acquire Cozens or Dach or even trade Ceci for another 1st rd pick in the teens or low twenties. Regardless of what people think Ceci has value, he's 6'3" PMD who plays big minutes, is a right shot & if put in the right role can improve a team's capabilities on a playoff team for $5 mil per yr. GB tried to make Ceci a shutdown D which simply didn't work, but he was to stubborn to change or even notice that it wasn't working, he's a PMD not a shiudown D. If Ottawa can draft Seider RD than the need for Ceci diminishes.
Ceci does not have that kind of value or else he'd already be gone. The year is 2019, not 2015.
 
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coladin

Registered User
Sep 18, 2009
11,781
4,476
Fair or not, he has worn out his welcome here. He won’t get a fair shake and if I were him I would take a 1 year deal. But i think , depending on what actually may happen between the draft and July 1, he will be moved.
 

Sens of Anarchy

Registered User
Jul 9, 2013
65,009
49,542
I would consider packaging Ceci with our 1st overall pick at this yr's draft to move up to acquire Cozens or Dach or even trade Ceci for another 1st rd pick in the teens or low twenties. Regardless of what people think Ceci has value, he's 6'3" PMD who plays big minutes, is a right shot & if put in the right role can improve a team's capabilities on a playoff team for $5 mil per yr. GB tried to make Ceci a shutdown D which simply didn't work, but he was to stubborn to change or even notice that it wasn't working, he's a PMD not a shiudown D. If Ottawa can draft Seider RD than the need for Ceci diminishes.

Not sure who on the Sens side of the equation wouldn't do that but I would not give up a chance to pick Cozens or Dach for that. It would be more expensive to move into that top 10. Ceci for a late first. I doubt he commands that at this point. If the Sens got any takers on that they'd be crazy not to pull the trigger.
 

JD1

Registered User
Sep 12, 2005
15,991
9,555
Some Ceci stats

49th in TOI at all strengths
Toi/gp at even strength 14th
2nd last in CF%
54th in xGF
Scf% 45.35, HDCF 46.52% (which says the shots against are of lower quality than the shots for)
On ice save percentage 91.29 (says to me the shots against are easier saves compared to other Ds notwithstanding he''s out against better competition)
CA/60 - last in league
Goals against /60 - 4th last in league (chabot and demelo are 1 and 2)
Scf/60 - 87th
Total points 5 in 5 - 42nd
Points/60 49th
Giveaways 45th
Giveaways/60 60th
Hits 46th
Shots blocked 42nd

Grabbed these stats from natural stat trick and filtered on 1000 minutes at 5 on 5

There's lots of stats to look at. Some of them paint Ceci quite favourably, some clearly don't. Some of the stats that don't are also team dependent.

There's tons of Ceci LOLs in the GDTs, some from guys that clearly understand hockey, some from guys that don't.

He clearly isn't the giveaway machine that he's panned for.

He's a big body that hits and blocks shots.

Notwithstanding all the commentary on his lack of offensive IQ, he Is clearly putting up points at a level far higher than the commentary would suggest.

GMs and agents are all looking at the same stat data. The stats on balance to me show he is comfortably playing at a top 4 level. Utilized a bit different those stats likely get better.

Personally i am kind of indifferent to him but i've played hockey for almost 50 years and even in beer leagues there are D that can handle some lines and not others. There was a lot of "give his minutes to wideman" type posts which were quite funny.

I think our D is shaping up pretty well. With Chabot, Brannstrom and Wolanin we're going to have a lot of PMD ability which should cut back on the corsi against if we put in place a strong team D structure. Ceci himself does the PMD thing reasonably well

Bottom line is he's going to get paid. Any deal better than 5 by 5 would be reasonably team friendly at the start and become more team friendly as time passes. A 5 year deal isn't long enough for us to see serious regression given his age.

Guys thinking he should be signed at < 4...the league just doesn't work that way.
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
30,708
9,652
Montreal, Canada
I can't speak for what anyone else did, but I voted for what I think his value is to us, not what he's actually gonna get.

I understand but for me, the answer to this question would be the same for every player. I "would be ok" to pay market value for every player. And that you like Ceci or not, he is absolutely worth over 4 M$ on the market.

It's not my fault or his fault that he has been played like a TOP PAIRING D-MAN for the last 3 years.

Browse - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

94 D-men made over 4 M$ this year and many are 2nd paring D-men (o even worse sometimes). What can you do? Dorion/Boucher (Melnyk) are responsible for this.

His situation is a bit unique, can't go back in time and play him in the right chair going forward so I have to be consistent with the way I analyze things; that,s why I can't be mad if a player is paid market value. If it was "up to me" Karlsson, Stone and Duchene would be all signed long-term at 6.0-7.0 M$ per season and without any signing bonuses or non-movement clauses.

Before calling everyone but yourself insane maybe read the question in the thread a little closer. It's not "what is Cecis market value?" It's what would you be happy signing him for, and most agree he is a poor fit for our organization and needs to move on. If he accepts a huge underpayment for 2-3 years sure fine. It doesn't matter what Ceci would willingly accept. **** em.

And a package of Ceci and Tierney (who you like to point out is very far down our depth chart in the rebuild) for Dougie Hamilton??? I mean why stop there, let's trade two other B assets for a first line center!

Also strange why writers for the Athletic, SN and NHL.com have noted since 2016 Ceci has been crushed in possession metrics and now the Sens are in quite the predicament of what to do with him...

lol it certainly wasn't meant to be taken so literally. Of course, I don't think I'm the only sane person on this board and for the record I don't even consider myself totally sane and don't think anyone is. Human being is very complex. I guess I'll change it to not "offend" anybody since it's so easy on the internet.

Anyway, you're right about the question but my answer is the same as I explained above. I "would be ok" paying him market value (why wouldn't I? It's not my money and every player deserves to be paid market value). If it was "what would you be happy with?", then my answer would be "way under market value" so I can have the best team possible and Melnyk might not look at dismantling it at every opportunity.

Hamilton is not the prime asset he used to be, he hasn't been "great" the last 2 years and is turning 26 y/o very soon, 2 years away from UFA. It wasn't mean to be a proposal (but more the type of trade they need to do) as I seriously don't know enough about the Canes needs. Really don't think they would need Tierney as they have Jordan Staal under contract for 4 more seasons. Hamilton scores a lot of goals for a D-man but "only" 13 more pts than Ceci this season, he is far from perfect defensively too. I believe Ceci can be a good #4 in the right system and role. And it's not that I think that Tierney is bad or anything, it's just that I would like the team to sell high on him because he certainly has some value. I'd rather keep Pageau as a defensive center and certainly hope that Brown, White and Norris (Chlapik is a question mark but Sens will probably draft more centers with so many high picks) end up better players than Tierney (at least offensively or defensively). Tierney is a good 3rd line player, that can play 2nd line if needed, like a younger Boedker.

Overall, I really don't think that Ceci + Tierney + 2nd is a crap package at all, certainly not anywhere close to your mockery hyperbolic comment "let's trade two other B assets for a first line center!"

As for Ceci getting crushed I think I have addressed it already. Note how his TOI/GP and dZS% go up (as well as QoC) and how his possession metrics immediately go down

Cody Ceci Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Do the same analysis for Ristolainen. Those guys are not made to be top pairing D-men but their teams played them too high in the line-up because of a lack of other options. I mean, I hope those guys at the Athletic have noted that, because if not they missed some very important factors. What was the point of those articles? Saying that Ceci is not a top-pair D-man and won't do well in that role? What a revelation

How dare you question Xspyrit's intelligence. He's the smartest man on HF.

And yet I have never claimed anything close to that. If people conclude that I am smart by the way I type or the stuff I post, good for them but seriously I could care less about what people think of me, and particularly on the internet.

On the other hand, I clearly saw you a few months ago, QUESTIONING MY INTELLIGENCE because I was posting same advanced data defending Bobby Ryan.

I mean somebody saying that must think he is kinda smart, or at least smarter than the other person he was talking about? lol what a complete tool you are
 

BatherSeason

Registered User
Jun 16, 2009
6,640
3,702
Gatineau
He won’t get a fair shake and if I were him I would take a 1 year deal.
Curious to know, are you of the opinion that if a RFA signs a 1 yr extension bringing him to UFA status, is that a clear indication that the player no longer wants to play here, or that the organization is on the fence about the player?

Asking for a friend.
 

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