Series Talk: Your Top 5 Under the Gun Leafs this Playoffs

[Punch Drunk Loov]

1. The core players
2. Expiring contracts

 

[rumman]

1) Freddy Andersen
2) Team Defense
3) Sheldon Keefe
4) Leafs PP
5) Leafs PK

good choice, should be interesting.............

 

[Mess]

good choice, should be interesting.............

Dubas and Keefe are both under the gun now and by extension so is Shanahan. They replaced a legendary Hockey Hall of fame GM and coach (8th all time in wins) taking this team in a new direction. Lets hope that direction is forward and not backwards and the first big test will be this play-in series against Columbus to evaluate that decision.

I mentioned Keefe because we have an inexperienced NHL coach with Zero NHL playoff games under his belt vs a 2 X Jack Adams Coach of the year winner and who is a finalist again this year for the award with 110 playoff games and 52 playoff wins. On paper this is not a fair match-up so Keefe is really going to need to be on his game in the coaching area and be prepared for all situations he might be facing and have solutions that result in the Leafs advancing to the playoffs. On paper he has the better team as Leafs are the favourites so now he has to make sure he isn't outcoached in this series.

Dubas has set the table now as this is his team with his players and his coach and so while he can't impact the on-ice results any further at this point, he will inevitably be judged by them, so for me he would also be one considered "under the gun" in this series.

 

[Bluelines]

Agreed. It is high time we see our star players legitimately take over a playoff series. It's also high time we see Andersen actually be a competent goalie for the duration of a series.

This is a false narrative that continues to rot these forums.

Facts are he has been more then competent in the playoffs, it's the skaters in front of him that keep choking up series. Apparently there are two metrics one called Quality Starts and the other called Really Bad Starts.

Quality Starts
2016 -17 - 4 quality starts in 6 games. (about 35 shots per game)
2017-18 - 3 quality starts in 7 games. (about 32 shots per game)
2018-19 - 4 quality starts in 7 games. (about 35 shots per game)

Really Bad Starts
2016 -17 - 1 really bad start in 6 games.
2017-18 - 2 really bad start in 7 games.
2018-19 - 1 really bad start in 7 games.

In 20 games with the Leafs he has had 11 Quality starts, 4 really bad starts and 5 not bad and not qualty starts, lets call them average starts.

He averages about one bad game for a 7 games series. If you knew that your goalie would play great for 4 games, OK for 2 and really bad for 1 in a 7 games series, I think most reasonable people would take that.

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/a/anderfr01.html#all_stats_basic_plus_nhl_po

 

[Oscar Peterson]

This is a false narrative that continues to rot these forums.

Facts are he has been more then competent in the playoffs, it's the skaters in front of him that keep choking up series. Apparently there are two metrics one called Quality Starts and the other called Really Bad Starts.

Quality Starts
2016 -17 - 4 quality starts in 6 games. (about 35 shots per game)
2017-18 - 3 quality starts in 7 games. (about 32 shots per game)
2018-19 - 4 quality starts in 7 games. (about 35 shots per game)

Really Bad Starts
2016 -17 - 1 really bad start in 6 games.
2017-18 - 2 really bad start in 7 games.
2018-19 - 1 really bad start in 7 games.

In 20 games with the Leafs he has had 11 Quality starts, 4 really bad starts and 5 not bad and not qualty starts, lets call them average starts.

He averages about one bad game for a 7 games series. If you knew that your goalie would play great for 4 games, OK for 2 and really bad for 1 in a 7 games series, I think most reasonable people would take that.

Frederik Andersen Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Unfortunately he's been poor in back-to-back game 7s, letting in softies that absolutely deflate the team.
When you're in game 7, it doesn't matter what kind of starts you've had previously in a series, as a goalie you need to dial in and elevate your play. We haven't seen that from Andersen yet.

 

[Bluelines]

CBJ''s game plan will be simple, go to the net, bump Andersen if possible, clog the crease both in the O zone and D zone, finish your checks, forecheck 2 players at a time, force Toronto to make quick decisions and short passes. Force Toronto's D to handle the puck more to keep the puck away from Toronto's big 4. Scrum when the play is whistled, slow down the game and generally face wash, bully and be a jackass. Force Toronto to take PIM's, keep Toronto off 5 on 5 and 5 on 4.

 

[Bluelines]

Unfortunately he's been poor in back-to-back game 7s, letting in softies that absolutely deflate the team.
When you're in game 7, it doesn't matter what kind of starts you've had previously in a series, as a goalie you need to dial in and elevate your play. We haven't seen that from Andersen yet.

The entire team has been poor in the last 2 game 7's. He has not stolen a game 7 but neither has Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Tavares, Nylander, etc.

 

[rumman]

Dubas has set the table now as this is his team with his players and his coach and so while he can't impact the on-ice results and further at this point, he will inevitably be judged by them, so for me he would also be one considered "under the gun" in this series.

yup, can't blame Lou or Babcock anymore, Dubas is officially on the clock................

 

[Mess]

yup, can't blame Lou or Babcock anymore, Dubas is officially on the clock................

We're currently at ground zero and a clean slate for management everything from this point forward will only be influenced by current management and no longer the past.

If they're saying they're not under the gun and felling any added pressure for needing success they will not be telling the truth.

Our current group will begin writing their own legacy officially when this CBJ series begins, and going forward throughout the playoffs after we qualify for them.

 

[ULF_55]

Andersen - can he do it in the post season
marner - 7th. highest cap hit has to be earned post season
Rielly - has to be a top defender in the league when it matters to earn a homerun deal
Kerfoot - may determine where he plays whenever the next season happens
Tavares - 6th. highest cap his has to be earn post season

 

[Nylander88]

"Under the gun"
Matthews
Tavares
Marner
Nylander
Andersen

Core players getting paid big bucks should always be asked to perform the highest and feel the most pressure.

As far as who needs to show more to keep a job?
Kerfoot: underwhelming season after signing a 3.5mil per extension. Would love to see more out of him as he or Johnsson likely become trade bait in the off-season

Clifford: He has a chance to become a mainstay with a big impactful playoffs with his experience and toughness. He's essentially playing for a contract with his hometown team.

Engvall: What a positive impact he made, and how great did that 2 year extension at 1.25mil per look? I think we can all agree he tailed off after putting pen to paper. He needs to get back to what he was doing, or he likely goes away in a minor deal for a mid round pick to free up a spot and $$

Andersen: He makes this list twice for me. Smart move by the organization to show the utmost faith in him and state "he's our guy". I don't buy the sentiment that his leash is that long. Campbell came in and played good hockey for us and is the best back-up we've had in quite some time. We go down 2-0 to CBJ, if any part of the blame can be put onto Andersen, it'll be Campbell starting game 3 imo

Gauthier: if the offense sputters and he's on the end of some bad shifts, he likely loses his spot to a guy like Robertson and Spezza shifts to the middle full time on the fourth line.

 

[X66]

The entire team has been poor in the last 2 game 7's. He has not stolen a game 7 but neither has Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Tavares, Nylander, etc.

No way!

They gave him multiple leads in the first game 7, including a lead going into the 3rd period. Then he let in two HORRIBLE goals and it deflated the team.

Even last year, he let in 2 bad goals and one horrible one, not much you can do there the team was done.

 

[Bluelines]

We're currently at ground zero and a clean slate for management everything from this point forward will only be influenced by current management and no longer the past.

If they're saying they're not under the gun and felling any added pressure for needing success they will not be telling the truth.

Our current group will begin writing their own legacy officially when this CBJ series begins, and going forward throughout the playoffs after we qualify for them.

Short term it would be great to win the series because I'm a fan. Long term it would be great to lose the series, I read somewhere if we lose the CBJ series we have a 12.5% of winning the 1st over all pick. We don't have a lot of young cheap controllable top prospects. Win the 1st pick, ask JT to waive his NMC, trade Tavares, pick up a couple of top D prospects in that trade. Being a GM is so easy....

TBH I would not be heartbroken if we don't make the playoffs. Beating CBJ then losing in the 1st round vs Boston or Tampa has less value to me than a 12.5% chance of getting another franchise type player.

 

[nuck]

Your Top 5 Under the Gun Leafs this Playoffs. This is mostly referring to the leaf players mainly on the trade/ salary cap bubble , havent made the best impression yet or future with the blue & white is uncertain and this post season could decide their fate .

My top 5 in order

01 - Travis Dermott is the guy , with too many LD for next season can he take that next step rather its at left or maybe right d and be a top 4 defensemen we so badly need him to be . All eyes on Dermott to maximize whatever opportunity ice wise he gets in august . Still think he has a lot more to give .

02- Alex Kerfoot takes #2 . With a good start and then not very good middle and end of the season , this guy needs to reclaimed that 3rd line c spot be a bit more gritty and chip in point wise every so often . 3+ million being behind #91 & #34 saleries , hasnt or doesnt play pk and has looked pedastrian a lot this year . He best gear up

03- Pierre Engvall is middle of the pack at 3 . Awesome start , got paid and then faded fast .The fact next season he's making roughly 1/2 million more than a base salary player on a cash strapped team this guy needs to stand out that much more and prove his 1.2 million salary next year is a better decision than an entry level player would be.

04- Kyle Clifford is # 4 . Easy decision if we make a decent run and Clifford can be effective with toughness he's probably re-signed and the leafs forefit that 2nd rounder to LA. If he doesnt fit or we bow out quick this playoffs we keep our 2nd and bye Clifford in my opinion.

05- Tyson Barrie is last #5 . Umm hope we can get something out of this guy and he finds some success on this team . I hope he clicks and under the current circumstances re-signs a team friendly 1 yr contract extension and the Kadri deal at least doesnt seem so so bad .

whos your top 5 questionable leafs that you expect some impression good or bad this post season ?

I am pretty sure Barrie's fate is decided already. He has never been what they needed and there will be better FA options if they go that way. Agree with the rest of your list but probably add Freddy at the top. There will be goalies on the move soon in preparation for the X draft and I can't see them looking at extending him with another weak playoff.

 

[Bluelines]

No way!

They gave him multiple leads in the first game 7, including a lead going into the 3rd period. Then he let in two HORRIBLE goals and it deflated the team.

Even last year, he let in 2 bad goals and one horrible one, not much you can do there the team was done.

The first game 7 when Jake was -5 and couldn't defend against a pylon? The goat horn manufacturer was backing up a dump truck after both game 7's, plenty of blame to go around.

Remember that game where the Leafs played vs the Zamboni driver and the 'Canes absolutely shut the Leafs down? That is what the Leafs TEAM needed to do in both of those game 7's, keep everything to the outside, and they didn't, they played a loose, pond hockey game of shinny against an extremely talented team.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

The entire team has been poor in the last 2 game 7's. He has not stolen a game 7 but neither has Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Tavares, Nylander, etc.

The goalie individually has more impact on a single game than any other player.
Off the top of my head I can't remember one playoff game in the last three years that Andersen single-handedly won for us, but I have seen great games from Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, even if there has been inconsistency (as expected with young players).
Either way, other players not playing amazing doesn't absolve Andersen of his responsibility. Just because Gardiner played one of his worst games as a Leaf doesn't mean I'm not going to be pissed off by Andersen letting in super soft goals.

 

[X66]

The first game 7 when Jake was -5 and couldn't defend against a pylon? The goat horn manufacturer was backing up a dump truck after both game 7's, plenty of blame to go around.

Go back and look at the goals Andersen let in.

Even the infamous Gardiner 'getting beat wide' goal was still a good box out, Andersen just choked.

 

[Merrrlin]

This thread is so classic Toronto Maple Leafs.

Most teams' board: "I'm pumped for playoff hockey"
Leafs board: "WHO IS UNDER THE GUN???"

 

[rumman]

This thread is so classic Toronto Maple Leafs.

Most teams' board: "I'm pumped for playoff hockey"
Leafs board: "WHO IS UNDER THE GUN???"

that comes with rooting for the team with the longest cup drought...............

 

[kevsh]

I agree with Kerfoot and Dermott from OP's list. The former has been moved around a lot in this lineup and hasn't really fit in. Dermott is likely expendable assuming Sandin makes the team next fall/winter. I don't see moving him to the right side as anything but a last resort option.

The others mentioned: Barrie will be gone regardless of what he does, Engvall is not an essential player and he's mostly played well, while Clifford has been a fourth liner. Unless he gets a bigger/more specific role, what can he really do? And if he doesn't against a team like the Jackets then I honestly don't know why he's here.

I think Andersen is a trade candidate only if he has a disastrous series against Columbus. And even then, what are the options if they move him? As far as players go, I think that's just about it.

 

[cgc83]

I am pretty sure Barrie's fate is decided already. He has never been what they needed and there will be better FA options if they go that way. Agree with the rest of your list but probably add Freddy at the top. There will be goalies on the move soon in preparation for the X draft and I can't see them looking at extending him with another weak playoff.

Yeah probably should of swapped Tyson with Freddy. I just feel if Andersen doesnt perform this playoffs he will still be around next year but will be sharing the crease duties and not owning the #1 spot (which is totally valid if happens) . You're probably very right about Barrie , i just hope for his next contract sake that he comes back looking a lot more together ( much like the year 2020 im going on wings and prayers for that one ) haha

 

[leafsfan5]

Go back and look at the goals Andersen let in.

Even the infamous Gardiner 'getting beat wide' goal was still a good box out, Andersen just choked.

Exactly, goalies need to come up big in the key moments or you will go nowhere. The past couple game 7's Freddy has let us down immensely. That Nordstrom goal last year was so bad it's unbelievable (even the Kuraly goal wasn't great)

Look at the power of great goaltending in game 7 of the SCF last year. Boston was pouring it on to start the game but Binnington held the fort until the Blue's skaters started to get going. Freddy has to show us this year he can be that guy or we need to move on from him.

 

[ToMaLe]

Andersen #1 by far. He has yet to have a good playoff for the Leafs. Also had a mediocre season this year. If he needs time to find his game like he usually does, get him out of there and run with Campbell.

 

[cgc83]

"Under the gun"
Matthews
Tavares
Marner
Nylander
Andersen

Core players getting paid big bucks should always be asked to perform the highest and feel the most pressure.

As far as who needs to show more to keep a job?
Kerfoot: underwhelming season after signing a 3.5mil per extension. Would love to see more out of him as he or Johnsson likely become trade bait in the off-season

Clifford: He has a chance to become a mainstay with a big impactful playoffs with his experience and toughness. He's essentially playing for a contract with his hometown team.

Engvall: What a positive impact he made, and how great did that 2 year extension at 1.25mil per look? I think we can all agree he tailed off after putting pen to paper. He needs to get back to what he was doing, or he likely goes away in a minor deal for a mid round pick to free up a spot and $$

Andersen: He makes this list twice for me. Smart move by the organization to show the utmost faith in him and state "he's our guy". I don't buy the sentiment that his leash is that long. Campbell came in and played good hockey for us and is the best back-up we've had in quite some time. We go down 2-0 to CBJ, if any part of the blame can be put onto Andersen, it'll be Campbell starting game 3 imo

Gauthier: if the offense sputters and he's on the end of some bad shifts, he likely loses his spot to a guy like Robertson and Spezza shifts to the middle full time on the fourth line.

Yep for sure the core players aside will have the most to say in this post season . I focused in on those fringe players uncertain about their future in the blue & white. Good call on Gauthier ( i hope he has a big playoffs and figures out how to add more to his game and be a main stay on the 4th line ) I do have my doubts but heres to hoping

 

[X66]

Exactly, goalies need to come up big in the key moments or you will go nowhere. The past couple game 7's Freddy has let us down immensely. That Nordstrom goal last year was so bad it's unbelievable (even the Kuraly goal wasn't great)

Look at the power of great goaltending in game 7 of the SCF last year. Boston was pouring it on to start the game but Binnington held the fort until the Blue's skaters started to get going. Freddy has to show us this year he can be that guy or we need to move on from him.

Too true.

It’s one thing so many people forget.

Even last years game 7, in the first 10 minutes Rask stops a Matthews onetimer point blank in the slot AND a Marner mine break and point blank shot.

Then Andersen let’s in a Lailme type goal.