Your opinions on a big trade

[hockeycentresud]

Hey guys (and girls),

I'd like your opinions on a trade offer that was submitted to me a few minutes ago.

But first, a league summary:
10-team / points only league.
20 players per team + 4 on the bench
We hold on to 7 players every year.
17rnds of draft.

Won the league last year,
mainly because I traded an injured Schiefele to a last place team for Brent Burns.
My D-corps looked like this: Karlsson, Burns, Josi, Gardiner, Muzzin, McDonagh and Seabrook.
My Forwards are a bit lackluster: Matthews, Voracek, Couturier, Monahan and others that I will not consider keeping next year.
And my goalies are good: Hellebuyck and Jones.

Now, I've been offered:
a 1st (9th) + a 2nd (11th)
vs.
Burns + a 4th (31st) + a 17th (170th)

I'm reticent on breaking up my amazing defense, but accepting this trade would leave me with picks 9,10,11 & 12.
I think I'm gonna do it, but... yeah.

Opinions and two cents are welcome.

Click to read more...

 

[McHandsomeDoc]

How long are you able to hold onto players for? And if you don't mind me asking, what did your winning team look like last year?

 

[hockeycentresud]

How long are you able to hold onto players for? And if you don't mind me asking, what did your winning team look like last year?

We can hold to to players for however long we want. I've had Karlsson as a keeper for the last 5 years and one of the guys has kept Kopitar for the last 7 if I'm not mistaken.

As for last year's team, it looked like this on the final day (made a few trades when I felt I could win):

Forwards:
Auston Matthews
Jakub Voracek
Sean Monahan
Sean Couturier
Eric Staal
Anders Lee
Patric Hornqvist
Mike Hoffman
Nazem Kadri (acquired via trade by swapping my 15th rounder vs. a 17th rounder)
David Perron
Corey Perry
Tyler Toffoli (acquired in the Scheifele vs. Burns trade)
Jordan Eberle
Mikko Koivu

Defense:
Brent Burns (acquired in exchange for an injured Mark Scheifele)
Erik Karlsson
Roman Josi
Jake Gardiner
Jake Muzzin
Mike Green
Ryan McDonagh
Brent Seabrook (acquired along with a 15th round pick in exchange for T.J Oshie and a 17th rounder)

Goalies:
Connor Hellebuyck
Martin Jones

 

[McHandsomeDoc]

Well, I'm sure Staal's renaissance helped you out there, I don't know that I'm sold on Couturier repeating what he did last year, and I'm super interested in what Hoffman is going to accomplish in Florida, but anyways... I can definitely see the attraction in 9,10,11,12 - especially if you snake draft - but Burns is still a top 5 defenceman and those can be hard to acquire. Think of what you had to give up to get him, after all. The guy you traded Scheifele to is going to be riding that guy for the next 8 years - you might as well get full value out of Burns... Plus if you are required to have defenceman on your roster as opposed to just 20 players regardless of position, then that puts a premium on defencemen, making the high scoring ones more valuable. Think of it this way - if Burns has a chance of getting 20-25 more points than the best defenceman you can draft if you don't have him, you may lose that trade if all of the guys available to you at 9-12 cannot make up that point difference relative to their position.

So the way I figure, without seeing the whole pool and not knowing the dynamics of all the guys in it, I would be inclined to keep a guy like Burns as his positional value is a bit higher, potentially more so than two extra picks in the range of the 80th best player in the league. The only way I maybe do that trade is if you are snake drafting and you don't get any picks again until 40,41.

 

[Speedy Creek]

Well, I'm sure Staal's renaissance helped you out there, I don't know that I'm sold on Couturier repeating what he did last year, and I'm super interested in what Hoffman is going to accomplish in Florida, but anyways... I can definitely see the attraction in 9,10,11,12 - especially if you snake draft - but Burns is still a top 5 defenceman and those can be hard to acquire. Think of what you had to give up to get him, after all. The guy you traded Scheifele to is going to be riding that guy for the next 8 years - you might as well get full value out of Burns... Plus if you are required to have defenceman on your roster as opposed to just 20 players regardless of position, then that puts a premium on defencemen, making the high scoring ones more valuable. Think of it this way - if Burns has a chance of getting 20-25 more points than the best defenceman you can draft if you don't have him, you may lose that trade if all of the guys available to you at 9-12 cannot make up that point difference relative to their position.

So the way I figure, without seeing the whole pool and not knowing the dynamics of all the guys in it, I would be inclined to keep a guy like Burns as his positional value is a bit higher, potentially more so than two extra picks in the range of the 80th best player in the league. The only way I maybe do that trade is if you are snake drafting and you don't get any picks again until 40,41.

I like the explanation (I had similar thoughts) and I agree

 

[hockeycentresud]

The only way I maybe do that trade is if you are snake drafting and you don't get any picks again until 40,41.

Thanks for your thoughts, much apprecieted.
But yeah, we are snake drafting.
So my original top-6 draft picks are 10,11, 30, 31, 50, 51.
And post-trade they'd be 9, 10, 11, 12, 30, 50, 51.

Still reticent?

 

[McHandsomeDoc]

Ah yes so there's the rub - my dopey counting aside, the snake means you are more likely to get some decent quality on that first cutback when you have four picks instead of two and have so long to wait until your next one. A trade there then will also free up another player you can protect, and you just have to hope there is still a high calibre D there for you somewhere in those four picks. Karlsson and Josi are great, but I would still be looking for one more grade A defenceman (I don't have much faith in Gardiner personally). Geeze that is a tough one. Especially considering you are making a trade with the guy who was probably nipping at your heels for second place last year. Is he willing to sweeten a bit?

 

[geofff]

Thanks for your thoughts, much apprecieted.
But yeah, we are snake drafting.
So my original top-6 draft picks are 10,11, 30, 31, 50, 51.
And post-trade they'd be 9, 10, 11, 12, 30, 50, 51.

Still reticent?

What kind of players are likely to be available at 9 and 11 though? If 70 players are kept each year that would make those picks roughly equivalent to pick 80 in a re-draft league. I would think that Burns is more valuable than whoever you can get at 9 and 12. Plus you already have 10 and 11 so you will get a couple guys you like at that spot anyway.

 

[rangerssharks414]

I too would like to know who would be available in the players that are thrown back. I'd probably keep Burns without knowing that.

 

[hockeycentresud]

Allright boys, I've went over everyone's team and selected what I thought would be the best 7 keepers for each. Here are the top fifteen players (according to my rankings) available at the draft.
Keep in mind, it is a point-only league. Goals and assists are each worth 1 point. Goalies get 2pts for a win and 4 pts for a shutout.

My keepers would be: Matthews, Voracek, Erik Karlsson, Josi, Gardiner, Hellebuyck, Jones.

FORWARDS:
Getzlaf
Forsberg
Granlund
Radulov
Huberdeau
Marchessault
Couturier
Marner
Tarasenko
Monahan
W. Karlsson
Schenn
Rakell
Stone
Staal

(Larkin, Keller, Aho, Teravainen, Schwartz, Pavelski, Boeser, Miller, Ehlers, Point, Tkachuk, Hoffman, Horvat)

DEFENSE:
Ellis
Ristolainen
Werenski
Provorov
Pulock
Ekblad
Spurgeon
Theodore
Giordano
Trouba
Chabot
Parayko
Fowler
Orlov
Miller
(Shattenkirk, Muzzin, Vatanen, Keith, Hanifin, Montour, Brodie, Dahlin,Petry, Girard)

GOALIES:
Allen
Quick
Talbot
Bishop
Smith
Raanta
Gibson
Schneider
Elliott
Lundqvist
Markstrom
Hutton
Price
Varlamov

Now, knowing the GMs from my league, they have a weakness for younger guys, future stars usually get drafted early. In my opinion, this is a mistake, and my philosophy of drafting proven players instead of long-shots is a big factor in my three wins over the last 4 years.

So I expect Dahlin, Keller, Marner, Ehlers, Boeser and Horvat to possibly be gone when I get to draft for the first time at number 9. Leaving me with the possibility of drafting 2 good Ds and 2F.

What do you guys think? I can't seem to make up my mind, the other guy doesn't seem to want to sweeten the deal. I don't know what to think about Burns, the guy is 33. Maybe now is the time to trade him. Or maybe I should keep him and sell him if I'm not in a winning position by the trade deadline.

...argh

 

[McHandsomeDoc]

Now, knowing the GMs from my league, they have a weakness for younger guys, future stars usually get drafted early.

Useful info that. Also, from your guesstimates as to who is left, I'm not seeing very much top tier talent still out there, especially not on defence. Laid out like this I would probably be inclined to keep Burns. Geeze, This one's a doozy

 

[hockeycentresud]

Thanks for everyone's input. I declined.