Proposal: Young defensive/mobile LHD for Jonathan Drouin

[Digitalbooya]

Who has had better quality of production? Okay, let's break it down.

Who's played tougher minutes? (Quality of competition/ quality of linemates differential)
Gallagher, -30 to -1

Who's better defensively?
Gallagher, better Corsi, rel Corsi, portion goals f/a, etc etc

Who's got a higher game score rating?
Gallagher, 98-77

Who's more likely to be on the ice when their team scores/ less likely to be on when scored on?
Gallagher

Who carries their team?
Gallagher (15% goals, 12% assists to 9% and 10)

I could go on and on but really, it's not hard to see why I prefer Gallagher.

This is a whole bunch of "Montreal's other players suck" and that Granlund play's on Minnesota's shutdown line against other team's top lines.

 

[Just Linda]

This is a whole bunch of "Montreal's other players suck" and that Granlund play's on Minnesota's shutdown line against other team's top lines.

You probably haven't guessed it but I'm not a Gallagher fan, I don't like the player. He's annoying. You though are a homer for your player, ignoring what you want to build the narrative for your team's player.

Gallagher was mostly paired with Plekanek last season in a shutdown role as well. That's not unique to Granlund. Of all the right wings in the league, Gallagher has had the sixth best possession numbers last season despite playing on one of the worst teams. He has the second most even strength goals at even strength, 5th overall. He has significant possession improvements on everyone he plays with, often with double digit improvements for them.

Granlund is not nearly as good defensively. He's not bad, he just isn't as good. The defensive difference more than makes up for the difference in offense, the skatr charts show that. Although really, if we switch to different models it shows how similiar they are offensively. Chance McCulluns GAR model shows that each adds as much offense to their teams (91 GAR ratings each).

 

[Digitalbooya]

You probably haven't guessed it but I'm not a Gallagher fan, I don't like the player. He's annoying. You though are a homer for your player, ignoring what you want to build the narrative for your team's player.

Gallagher was mostly paired with Plekanek last season in a shutdown role as well. That's not unique to Granlund. Of all the right wings in the league, Gallagher has had the sixth best possession numbers last season despite playing on one of the worst teams. He has the second most even strength goals at even strength, 5th overall. He has significant possession improvements on everyone he plays with, often with double digit improvements for them.

Granlund is not nearly as good defensively. He's not bad, he just isn't as good. The defensive difference more than makes up for the difference in offense, the skatr charts show that. Although really, if we switch to different models it shows how similiar they are offensively. Chance McCulluns GAR model shows that each adds as much offense to their teams (91 GAR ratings each).

Your arguments for offense and defense are corsi related. Bruce Boudreau doesn't run a corsi system but rather a high danger scoring chances for while allowing a bit more low danger shots against. You can clearly see that in the xGF, RelTM xGF%, and Exp Goals Against.

You still don't have an argument in terms of real production. Where Granlund has had back-to-back 65+ point seasons. Gallagher, on the other hand has a career high of 54 points and that was the only time he broke the 50 point line in a season.

"You though are a homer for your player, ignoring what you want to build the narrative for your team's player."

 

[Just Linda]

Your arguments for offense and defense are corsi related. Bruce Boudreau doesn't run a corsi system but rather a high danger scoring chances for while allowing a bit more low danger shots against. You can clearly see that in the xGF, RelTM xGF%, and Exp Goals Against.

You still don't have an argument in terms of real production. Where Granlund has had back-to-back 65+ point seasons. Gallagher, on the other hand has a career high of 54 points and that was the only time he broke the 50 point line in a season.

"You though are a homer for your player, ignoring what you want to build the narrative for your team's player."

The GAR model doesn't use Corsi, it rewards high danger over poor shots. I've included a lot of examples that don't use Corsi. Even the stats you chose, Gallagher has outperformed Granlund in 2 of them. I've provided you 'real production' examples too, players produce more than just on the scoreboard. Gallagher has been injured for much of the past few seasons, his pace still shows that he is last year is his norm.

Yes Granlund had more points than Gallagher. I could easily argue that based on quality of teammates, Gallagher could easily hit that mark in Granlund's role, Granlund had 20 secondary assists to Gallagher's 5. Not all points are created equally. So Granlund gets more TOI, gets better utilization, better linemates, etc etc etc. And yet the underlying numbers shows they produce pretty evenly. The underlying numbers show that Gallagher can be a 65pt guy if he were in Granlund's role.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The GAR model doesn't use Corsi, it rewards high danger over poor shots. I've included a lot of examples that don't use Corsi. Even the stats you chose, Gallagher has outperformed Granlund in 2 of them. I've provided you 'real production' examples too, players produce more than just on the scoreboard. Gallagher has been injured for much of the past few seasons, his pace still shows that he is last year is his norm.

Yes Granlund had more points than Gallagher. I could easily argue that based on quality of teammates, Gallagher could easily hit that mark in Granlund's role, Granlund had 20 secondary assists to Gallagher's 5. Not all points are created equally. So Granlund gets more TOI, gets better utilization, better linemates, etc etc etc. And yet the underlying numbers shows they produce pretty evenly. The underlying numbers show that Gallagher can be a 65pt guy if he were in Granlund's role.

It’s pretty simple, Granlund will out assist Gallagher in any given season. He is a playmaker.

You’re pro rating Gallagher’s numbers to give him the benefit of the doubt without factoring in fatigue for playing more minutes per game. That’s everything wrong with p/60 as I showed in the Ovechkin/Crosby vs Perron example. Actually playing more minutes and producing is pretty important vs playing less minutes and producing at the same rate. It’s even worse when you factor in Granlund’s PK time vs Gallagher’s non-existent PK time.

Granlund is the key cog to a playoff team. Can you say the same for Gallagher?

 

[Just Linda]

It’s pretty simple, Granlund will out assist Gallagher in any given season. He is a playmaker.

You’re pro rating Gallagher’s numbers to give him the benefit of the doubt without factoring in fatigue for playing more minutes per game. That’s everything wrong with p/60 as I showed in the Ovechkin/Crosby vs Perron example. Actually playing more minutes and producing is pretty important vs playing less minutes and producing at the same rate. It’s even worse when you factor in Granlund’s PK time vs Gallagher’s non-existent PK time.

Yes, that can be true. Lehkonen is a good teammate example of that. Performed well on third line, almost no scoring since. Gallagher does well though in increased roles. Ah well, he's finally been given top line minutes with decent teammates this year, we shall see what his numbers look like in April. If my predictions hold true, he should reach 55 pts no problem

 

[gwh]

Spurgeon is not going to MTL for Drouin. Be happy you got Reilly from us, and leave it at that.

Reilly is still be bad, MTL just doesn't care about his lack of defense.

 

[bert]

Toffoli + Clague + 2nd?

This is serious? Lol i think Drouin is a great talent but you cant actually think L.A would do this.

 

[bert]

I like Theodore but moving Drouin for him 1 for 1 makes me feel uneasy tbh (and Vegas doesn't really have a winger that could even out the value, i like Haula/Tuch but Vegas wouldn't do that deal unless we added something to Drouin).

I've also liked Nic Hague since his draft year, even tho he's not a puck mover. Obviously love Brannstrom but i assume he wouldn't be available.

If this deal is in the table Montreal takes it 10 out of 10. Theodore is an absolute stud.

 

[bert]

Are you suggesting that Gallagher is worth more than Brodin and Niederreiter combined? Because that would make it real easy to figure out who actually understands the game.

Bingo

 

[gwh]

The GAR model doesn't use Corsi, it rewards high danger over poor shots. I've included a lot of examples that don't use Corsi. Even the stats you chose, Gallagher has outperformed Granlund in 2 of them. I've provided you 'real production' examples too, players produce more than just on the scoreboard. Gallagher has been injured for much of the past few seasons, his pace still shows that he is last year is his norm.

Yes Granlund had more points than Gallagher. I could easily argue that based on quality of teammates, Gallagher could easily hit that mark in Granlund's role, Granlund had 20 secondary assists to Gallagher's 5. Not all points are created equally. So Granlund gets more TOI, gets better utilization, better linemates, etc etc etc. And yet the underlying numbers shows they produce pretty evenly. The underlying numbers show that Gallagher can be a 65pt guy if he were in Granlund's role.

How about playing with this before spouting weird stuff in the internet? For example Granlund had 43% zone start rate last year, his utilization outside pp1 is one of the worst in the team.
Corsica | Skater Stats

 

[bernmeister]

hmmm.. gonna have to pass..

my bad, orig reads as 1st and suggests another 1st
should have read as edited, 1st + 2nd + Drouin
for
Skjei + correct +

anywhoo, I think Sabes pay more for a package of Ranger Ds which transforms them overnight.

 

[VeeMerk]

Habs have an excess of wingers and we're lacking a good defensive/puck moving presence on the blue line, anyone good available?

Could also take a lower value defensive LHD (still has to be young and have good upside) plus a winger for Drouin.

Habs fans have to stop with shit like this. No wonder half the league doesn't want to play for us. How can you possibly be a fan and give up so quickly on such a good player? Drouin suffers from over-complicating his game. That probably stems from the amount of pressure he had last year to play C and produce. The kid flies out there, is getting points above his projection and is very exciting to watch.

We'll get a LD, time is on our side. Either someone develops or we sign someone in the off season but there is no rush for it to happen this year. Us making the playoffs would just be a bonus and Weber will add a lot more stability to the D line.

Just take a breath, step back and chill.

 

[jfhabs]

Reilly is still be bad, MTL just doesn't care about his lack of defense.

Our play style this year is a good fit for a player like Reilly. He is not the best to break the cycle game deep in our d-zone, but he's very good at moving the puck and breaking zone entries.

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Habs fans are the worse.

I knew it would be a long season and it was bound to happen but seriously? I think Bergevin will wait until at least Trade deadline and if not offseason before making a trade for a core player.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Drouin is a lazy bum and all Habs fans are seeing it first hand by watching the games . No wonder he’s the topic of trade proposals on here .

Holy hell. He may have some bad games and make bas decisions with the puck but he’s far from being lazy. Jesus christ the dumb things I have to read here sometimes is hilarious

 

[CupsOverCash]

Has he really been that bad? They have a decent record right now. I cant see them being any good without him contributing.

 

[AboveandBeyond]

Holy hell. He may have some bad games and make bas decisions with the puck but he’s far from being lazy. Jesus christ the dumb things I have to read here sometimes is hilarious

Everyone is entitled to there opinion but to say mine is dumb is ignorant of you . I have watched every game this year and last year since he joined the habs and it’s glaringly obvious he’s a lazy player and selfish . Tampa knew this and that’s why they traded him .

 

[JeffreyLFC]

Everyone is entitled to there opinion but to say mine is dumb is ignorant of you . I have watched every game this year and last year since he joined the habs and it’s glaringly obvious he’s a lazy player and selfish . Tampa knew this and that’s why they traded him .

He is not lazy. Selfish yes but not Lazy.

 

[KingPuckChoo]

Clague+ for Drouin

Drouin is terrible, you really don't want to have him on your team

he's been a disaster, watch the games don't just focus on points

even as a waiver pickup, just let the guy stay in the East

 

[Just Linda]

How about playing with this before spouting weird stuff in the internet? For example Granlund had 43% zone start rate last year, his utilization outside pp1 is one of the worst in the team.
Corsica | Skater Stats

You do realize utilization is far more than zone start eh? I've already given lots of examples on his utilization

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Skjei fits like a glove, but you would have to best all offers, and I think a big deal for NYR Ds can be had including Brady.

I'd want Habs 2019 1st unprotected, 2020 EDIT ADD 2020 2nd END EDIT ADD + Drouin
for
Skjei and small add

Drouin could emerge, but he could also not be all that AND a bag o chips. You have to pay to leverage that risk or I keep Skjei or flip him elsewhere when NYR LDs are ready

 

[HuGo Sham]

he just scored, so i assume the trade drouin threads will die down until - saturday

 

[TT1]

he just scored, so i assume the trade drouin threads will die down until - saturday

Na, he still needs to go. We have an excess of wingers and he's our best trade chip to land a good LD.

Doesn't matter if he keeps producing tbh, it just increases his value.

 

[Starat327]

easy pass



Fair enough but Drouin is also an option at C, he went close to PPG at C for the final ~30 games of the season last year.

Flyers have Couturier and Patrick, with frost on the way at C. Voracek/Konecny at RW.

Drouin may not be a bad longer term option at LW for the inevitable decline of Giroux, but not at the expense of our young D. Its just not feasible from our perspective right now.