Speculation: You’re the GM

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Here’s the scenario: Craig Leopold has just Fired GMBG for being too easy to work with. He’s made the decision to put you, (insert your name), in charge. What direction do you take this team? List any moves that you would make with hypothetical returns. Use proposed trades by other fan-bases as a basis for your Value. For example, one could say they would trade Dumba for Domi, because that has been proposed by fans of Montreal. You could therefore also trade Dumba for a similar Value player that you think makes sense for both teams.

Click to read more...

 

[Wabit]

Armchair-GM - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Makes things easier to see and make work for the cap.

 

[Mickey the mouse]

1st thing I would do is target a coach that is firm but fair, a good communicator and patient. - Jim Montgomery is my guy.
2nd - Hire a development coaching staff in Iowa to develop and grow players from within the org
3rd - Target kockey IQ, speed and skill in draft and Free agency.

I'll be back with player moves soon

 

[Wabit]

Can I say I'd shove drugs in Parise, Spurgeon, Suter, and Zucc baggage the next time we're crossing the border, then terminate their contracts because of that?

 

[57special]

Yes! And bribe the draft lottery guys!

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I would go full rebuild if I were Guerin. The initial moves I’d make are:
Dumba for Montreal 1st (6-10 range)
Zucker for Pittsrburgh 1st(25-31 range) + Legare
Staal for Studnicka
Brodin for the higher of Carolina/Toronto’s 1st (16-25 range)
At draft: 4 1sts
Detroit: Lafreniere
Anaheim: Byfield
Ottawa: Stutzle
LA: Drysdale
NJ: Raymond
Ottawa: Holtz
MIN:Rossi
MIN:Lundell
NSHerfetti (yuck)

plus 2 more 1sts that you can either use or package for something else.

be bad for 2 years, get top 5 picks for those years.

 

[AKL]

I'm not going to bother with the realism of some of these deals because that seems like a drag.

Before the deadline:
Brodin+2020 4th/2021 3rd for CAR 1st+Rees OR Brodin for Gaudette+2020 3rd
Hunt for 4th
I would try to figure out if there's a way to get a 2nd for Koivu, or re-sign him for 1yr, 1.5M max. Don't re-sign him if he won't accept that.

In the offseason:
Dumba for Monahan/Domi/Dvorak+2021 2nd (will be their 2022 2nd if Hall re-signs)
Zucker for BUF 1st+prospect/MTL 1st+prospect (would consider 2021 if their 2020s are too high, the gambit being this could be a lottery eligible pick next year, and we could get lucky, but probably won't be worse than 20th)
Greenway for EDM 2020 2nd

OUT: Brodin, Hunt, Koivu, Dumba, Zucker, Greenway
IN: Domi, Rees, CAR 2020 1st, BUF 2021 1st, EDM 2020 2nd, 2020 2nd, 2020 4th, BUF prospect

2020 draft: MIN 1st, CAR 1st, MIN 2nd, EDM 2nd, 2nd, MIN 4th, 4th, MIN 5th-7th
2021 draft: MIN 1st, BUF 1st, MIN 2nd-7th

Minnesota's pick currently sits at 7th overall, the order of players I'd take is:
Lafreniere
Byfield
Stutzle
Rossi
Drysdale
Lundell
Raymond
Holtz
Perfetti

Carolina's pick is 20th right now, I'd take:
Zary/Mercer
Bourque
Gunler
Guhle
Amirov

With our 2nd, 38th overall I'd look for Foerster, Perreault or Foudy

Go into next season with this lineup:

Fiala-Domi-Kaprizov
Donato-Eriksson Ek-Zuccarello
Parise-Staal-Kunin
Foligno-Sturm-Hartman
Rask

Suter-Spurgeon
Soucy-Menell
Seeler-Pateryn
Belpedio

Top prospects in 2020-21:
Boldy
Lundell
Bourque
Khovanov
Beckman
Rees
Foerster
EDM 2nd
2nd (from Koivu)

That lineup definitely isn't great next year, but as you start to inject the prospects going forward it becomes a lot younger and a lot better.
You still have two 1sts between 5th and 20th in 2021 as well.
You might be bad for two years, but at least your future is bright.
Most importantly, these are your centers going forward:
Domi
Lundell
Eriksson Ek
Khovanov
Bourque
Rees
Foerster

Once you start to figure out which centers are going to be the guys going forward, you can start to address the wings, as players like Parise and Zuccarello start to leave, and you can build the wings around Fiala, Kaprizov, Boldy and whoever else we might pull out of the 2021 and 2022 drafts.

 

[nstarjim]

I would go full rebuild if I were Guerin. The initial moves I’d make are:
Dumba for Montreal 1st (6-10 range)
Zucker for Pittsrburgh 1st(25-31 range) + Legare
Staal for Studnicka
Brodin for the higher of Carolina/Toronto’s 1st (16-25 range)
At draft: 4 1sts
Detroit: Lafreniere
Anaheim: Byfield
Ottawa: Stutzle
LA: Drysdale
NJ: Raymond
Ottawa: Holtz
MIN:Rossi
MIN:Lundell
NSHerfetti (yuck)

plus 2 more 1sts that you can either use or package for something else.

be bad for 2 years, get top 5 picks for those years.

How many minuets in till NBC pulls the winter classic? Also how to keep the players from thinking the GM doesn't care about winning and stop trying for decades?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

How many minuets in till NBC pulls the winter classic? Also how to keep the players from thinking the GM doesn't care about winning and stop trying for decades?

This seems a bit hysterical.

 

[Digitalbooya]

TDL:
Staal —> 1st
Koivu —> 2nd
Foligno —> 2nd/3rd
Donato+ —> Roslovic

Stalock —> AHL
Kahkonen —> NHL

Fiala-Eriksson Ek-Kaprizov
Zucker-Roslovic-Zuccarello
Parise-Sturm-Kunin
Greenway-Rask-Hartman

Suter-Dumba
Brodin-Spurgeon
Soucy-Pateryn

Kahkonen
Dubnyk

Top 5 pick: Center
Late 1st: Defenseman

New jersey with a hip design and color scheme.

Sell the future to the fan base.

 

[SupremeNachos]

Here’s the scenario: Craig Leopold has just Fired GMBG for being too easy to work with. He’s made the decision to put you, (insert your name), in charge. What direction do you take this team? List any moves that you would make with hypothetical returns. Use proposed trades by other fan-bases as a basis for your Value. For example, one could say they would trade Dumba for Domi, because that has been proposed by fans of Montreal. You could therefore also trade Dumba for a similar Value player that you think makes sense for both teams.

Ban every Arm chair GM.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Let the season continue play out until the TDL. I'll assume that our goaltending is going to keep us in the bottom 10 and that we're out of the playoff hunt at that time.

Foligno for a 2nd
Pateryn for a 3rd
Donato for ~3rd

Only move Dumba/Brodin as a hockey move at the draft. I'll assume that Domi is available. Pull the trigger on that trade.

Try my damndest to find a goaltending solution during the summer, via trade or free agency. I don't know what kind of options are actually out there, but if I can find one, a Dubnyk buyout is likely. Swap Stalock and Kahkonen.

Try and find an upgrade at #3LD via free agency.

One high 1st rounder, two 2nds, maybe two 3rds.

Khovanov to the AHL as a top 6C.
Boldy stays in college.
Beckman back to the WHL.

2020-2021 lineup:

Fiala - Staal - Zuccarello
Zucker - Domi - Kaprizov
Parise - Eriksson Ek - Kunin
Greenway - Rask - Hartman

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Soucy
New guy - Menell

New goalie
Kahkonen

Roughly $27M in cap space to sign Domi, Kaprizov (ELC), Kunin (bridge), Greenway (bridge), Soucy (mid-range deal), Menell (cheap), veteran LD (under $3M), Kahkonen (cheap), goalie upgrade (up to $5M).

Expansion Draft:

Protect: Parise, Zuccarello, Domi, Fiala, Eriksson Ek, Kunin, Zucker; Suter, Spurgeon, Brodin. Try to do what I can, within reason, to get Seattle to take Greenway over Soucy.

2021-22 lineup:

Fiala - Domi - Kaprizov
Zucker - Khovanov? - Zuccarello
Boldy? - Eriksson Ek - Kunin
Parise - Rask - Whoever

Same D.

 

[nstarjim]

This seems a bit hysterical.

You don't think teams like florida went into a rebuild where players would hang out on the beach all day. Then show up at night and just collect their checks. I thought one of the hardest things they had to deal with was getting rid of their losing culture, and the perception the people at the top didn't care about winning. JMO

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You don't think teams like florida went into a rebuild where players would hang out on the beach all day. Then show up at night and just collect their checks. I thought one of the hardest things they had to deal with was getting rid of their losing culture, and the perception the people at the top didn't care about winning. JMO

No, I don't.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Trying to persuade Seattle to take Greenway instead of Soucy seems like the Vegas expansion all over. Just let it ride and move on.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Trying to persuade Seattle to take Greenway instead of Soucy seems like the Vegas expansion all over. Just let it ride and move on.

I said 'within reason'.

 

[Bazeek]

I'm ignoring cap and the expansion draft for now. I think there's enough room to make the former work in the medium term and I don't think we should let the latter affect our plans. I'm also ignoring goalies beyond assuming that we don't sign a UFA for like 7 years or something ridiculous.

These options strike me as the extremes. Our range of options falls somewhere in between them. Which we should pursue really depends on what's actually available.

Option 1: Solve et Coagula
Trade deadline

Zucker -> late 1st + prospect + mid pick
Brodin -> late 1st + prospect + mid pick
Staal -> late 1st
Donato -> 2nd + prospect
Hunt -> 3rd/4th​

Draft

- two 1sts + prospect + mid pick -> a top-6 center​

2020-21 Roster

Fiala - NewCenter - Zuccarello
Parise - Ek/Rask - Kaprizov/Kunin
Foligno - Rask/Ek - Kunin/Kaprizov
Greenway - Sturm - Hartman

Suter - Spurgeon
Soucy-Dumba
Seeler - Pateryn​

Problems: Assumes the center trade is available at the draft and that Ek or Rask can cut it as the middle-6 centers. The centers would still be kind of soft and it's hard to say whether the wingers really make up for it. Lots would ride on Kaprizov. I think losing Brodin probably hurts us in ways that are hard to appreciate while he's here.

Option 2: Distillation
Trade Deadline

Foligno -> 2nd
Hunt -> 3rd/4th
Donato -> 2nd + prospect​

Draft

Seeler -> 5th/6th​

2020-21 Roster

Zucker - Staal - Zuccarello
Fiala - Ek/Rask - Kaprizov/Kunin
Parise - Rask/Ek - Kunin/Kaprizov
Greenway - Sturm - Hartman

Suter - Spurgeon
Brodin - Dumba
Soucy - Pateryn​

Problems: This approach is very conservative and assumes that what we have now is mostly good, we just need to shed the lower end of the roster and add Kaprizov. We recoup some decent picks from the Foligno and Donato trades, but even if they're used well the help they provide is about 5 years away.

Option 3: Calcination
Trade Deadline

Zucker -> late 1st + prospect + mid pick
Dumba -> 1st + 2nd + prospect + mid pick
Brodin -> late 1st + prospect + mid pick
Staal -> late 1st
Foligno -> 2nd
Hunt -> 3rd/4th​

Draft

Ask Zuccarello about waiving his NMC and sparing himself years of pain
Draft a million players​

2020-21 Roster

Fiala - Ek - Kaprizov
Donato - Rask - Kunin
Parise - Sturm - Greenway?
AHLer - AHLer - Hartman

Suter - Spurgeon
Soucy - Menell
Seeler - Pateryn
​

Problems: Nausea, diarrhea, migraines, erectile disfunction, loss of appetite, existential dread. We'd be looking to get things back on track during the last years of the Suter/Parise deals.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

The question is: how many fans on here would stop watching if we pulled a Detroit next year?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

The question is: how many fans on here would stop watching if we pulled a Detroit next year?

Plenty, IMO, but it would be much more pronounced inside the arena.

Edit: missed the "one here". I mean, speaking for only myself, my motivation to catch every single game has definitely waned. I still DVR every game, but if I look up the score and see a 5-1 loss, I ain't watching. Does "pulling a Detroit" mean guys like Beckman and Khovanov are in the NHL taking their lumps, or is it guys like Mayhew and Rau? That would probably factor in.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Plenty, IMO, but it would be much more pronounced inside the arena.

Yeah I have a feeling a ton would. Fans have stopped paying attention this year when though we were in the race for a good chunk of it

 

[Bazeek]

Plenty, IMO, but it would be much more pronounced inside the arena.

Agreed. Russo mentioned that there are already a surprising number of suites at the X that are eerily dark. It's easy to put a bad hockey game on in the background and do something else. It's harder to pay for tickets and fight traffic and weather to devote an evening to it.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah I have a feeling a ton would. Fans have stopped paying attention this year when though we were in the race for a good chunk of it

Agreed. Russo mentioned that there are already a surprising number of suites at the X that are eerily dark. It's easy to put a bad hockey game on in the background and do something else. It's harder to pay for tickets and fight traffic and weather to devote an evening to it.

And this goes back to the tanking/rebuilding question of: is it worth it for 2-3 years to have the following 10+ years be full every night, but knowing that if it's not done correctly that 2-3 years can turn into 4-5 years or even more?

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

And this goes back to the tanking/rebuilding question of: is it worth it for 2-3 years to have the following 10+ years be full every night, but knowing that if it's not done correctly that 2-3 years can turn into 4-5 years or even more?

It’s such a dangerous line to walk. I’ve got to think that Guerin wouldn’t consider a traditional rebuild because of that. He knows that, if 3 years from now things aren’t back on track, that he will be on the hot-seat if he’s not already gone. I think he goes the route of a team like St. Louis, basing his rebuild on continually drafting well and making the right trades at the right time. Takes a real talented GM to do. I’d be all for it if I was confident that BG could Identify the next O’rielly on the market, and that our scouting staff can pull a Robert Thomas with a late 1st.

 

[Fremitus Borealis]

I mean, yeah, my armchair opinion would be to sit tight until the trade deadline, and trade as many of the current roster for as many draft picks as possible. (The idea of going into the draft with 4 first rounders gives me the tingles.)

But in real life, I can't imagine anyone in the organization will willingly sacrifice wins now for wins in the future.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It’s such a dangerous line to walk. I’ve got to think that Guerin wouldn’t consider a traditional rebuild because of that. He knows that, if 3 years from now things aren’t back on track, that he will be on the hot-seat if he’s not already gone. I think he goes the route of a team like St. Louis, basing his rebuild on continually drafting well and making the right trades at the right time. Takes a real talented GM to do. I’d be all for it if I was confident that BG could Identify the next O’rielly on the market, and that our scouting staff can pull a Robert Thomas with a late 1st.

Which is why I usually push back on the "blow it up" stuff. I completely understand why an owner would balk at that.

I know there's no NHL evidence (yet), but I really don't have much cause to the doubt that ability in the current iteration of the scouting staff, at the moment.