News Article: Yes, It’s Time to Trade Jean-Gabriel Pageau (This time, it’s different.)

[GCK]

For now. The crunch is coming a lot sooner than people seem willing to accept. We should at least be planning for it now.

This teams margin for error is basically zero being such a low budget team. Any mess can't be cleaned up.

Ryan has 2 more years. There is no crunch coming before that contract expires. Reaching the floor is a challenge next year.

 

[Sweatred]

What 7th year? He is proposing a 3 year contract. 21 mil in 3 years and free to sign with the highest bidder for the next 4 years.

Ha - I totally misread that . Oops.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Ryan has 2 more years. There is no crunch coming before that contract expires. Reaching the floor is a challenge next year.

Next year or the year after is fine. Which is why I dont mind a short term deal, but in the context of Pageau being signed for 5 or 6 years, gauranteed we'll be pushing the barriers of the budget by then by a fair margin and I think its kind of foolish to think otherwise. Thats why we need to be planning for it now and not just assuming it'll shake out fine. This team can only spend ~70% of what most other teams can and they can't clean up messes.

I think there's a good chance Pageau will be broken and declining before the end of any 5 or 6 year deal, likely rendering him untradable. The absolute ceiling for signing a UFA at their peak career value, is for them to at best meet the contract. This is some of the same logic used for why we traded the other guys, just on a smaller scale.

 

[DJB]

Nope, I am saying they are not handcuffing the team and explained why. Fairly simple to understand.

Because we dont spend as much $$$$ as other teams , to me both are handcuffing contracts.

 

[DJB]

Ryan has 2 more years. There is no crunch coming before that contract expires. Reaching the floor is a challenge next year.

Chabot contract kicks in. Reaching the floor won't be an issue whatsoever

 

[Matsens15]

 

[Ice-Tray]

I meant 7 mil x 3 years.

Its an absurd contract but it builds good will with the young players.

Jpg will be off the books when we’re contending.

That sets a ridiculous internal salary structure. We won’t be able to sign better kids to less after that, without a fight.

No thank you.

 

[JungleBeat]

I don't understand this at all. Assuming the team can get a 1st round pick, you gotta jump on that. Three 1st round picks in the best draft in nearly 20 years is something that could transform a franchise. Pageau will probably regress next year to his usual pace and everyone will be complaining about why we're paying someone $4M+ for a 3rd or 4th line aging player. I like Pageau, but if he's cashing in, let him do it elsewhere and rebuild the team with top prospects.

2015 draft is better.

 

[GCK]

Next year or the year after is fine. Which is why I dont mind a short term deal, but in the context of Pageau being signed for 5 or 6 years, gauranteed we'll be pushing the barriers of the budget by then by a fair margin and I think its kind of foolish to think otherwise. Thats why we need to be planning for it now and not just assuming it'll shake out fine. This team can only spend ~70% of what most other teams can and they can't clean up messes.

I think there's a good chance Pageau will be broken and declining before the end of any 5 or 6 year deal, likely rendering him untradable. The absolute ceiling for signing a UFA at their peak career value, is for them to at best meet the contract. This is some of the same logic used for why we traded the other guys, just on a smaller scale.

If attendance and corporate support doesn’t rebound in 3 years then we will be talking about more than budgets. I believe #theplan assumes rebounding revenues and higher spending.

 

[GCK]

2015 draft is better.

That is impossible to say for a few years.

 

[GCK]

Chabot contract kicks in. Reaching the floor won't be an issue whatsoever

We are about 20M below the floor including Gaborik.

That’s 2G 3D 6F. Includes Ryan.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

If attendance and corporate support doesn’t rebound in 3 years then we will be talking about more than budgets. I believe #theplan assumes rebounding revenues and higher spending.

That's sidestepping the issue.

Increased revenues or not, this team will always struggle to spend and ability to clean up messes via salary retention, LTIR or buyouts. Those moves just take away from any salary budget. That's all assuming it improves enough too, I dont think that happens enough either, but that's a whole other story.

If people want to sign secondary players like Pageau to long term deals assuming it will all work out fine, I think that's a poor decision and feels like history just repeating itself. I just want to scream from the mountaintop that I think these decisions could easily bite us in the ass and I'm not on board. A 6 year deal for example puts Pageau's years 4,5 & 6 as potential obstacles and by then possibly untradable from decline and being paid at career peak value. Stupid I say.

 

[GCK]

That's sidestepping the issue.

Increased revenues or not, this team will always struggle to spend and ability to clean up messes via salary retention, LTIR or buyouts. Those moves just take away from any salary budget. That's all assuming it improves enough too, I dont think that happens enough either, but that's a whole other story.

If people want to sign secondary players like Pageau to long term deals assuming it will all work out fine, I think that's a poor decision and feels like history just repeating itself. I just want to scream from the mountaintop that I think these decisions could easily bite us in the ass and I'm not on board. A 6 year deal for example puts Pageau's years 4,5 & 6 as potential obstacles and by then possibly untradable from decline and being paid at career peak value. Stupid I say.

I’m not side stepping. I’m saying in 3 or 4 years I expect close to cap spending. If they are still having revenue issues then it won’t matter what deals they have on the books as the franchise will be in jeopardy.

I expect spending the necessary amounts to build the club and start winning beginning this summer.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I’m not side stepping. I’m saying in 3 or 4 years I expect close to cap spending. If they are still having revenue issues then it won’t matter what deals they have on the books as the franchise will be in jeopardy.

I expect spending the necessary amounts to build the club and start winning beginning this summer.

That is our divide then and that's fair.

I believe in trying to make something work in Ottawa with a budget as best as possible, because that is what it is imo and the only way forward. I also think even if they turn it around, we're still looking at around 80% cap spending at max which means still making tough decisions other teams otherwise wouldnt.

You would like to play the game like every other team on the assumption the finances will be there to support it.

 

[DJB]

We are about 20M below the floor including Gaborik.

That’s 2G 3D 6F. Includes Ryan.

Ottawa Senators - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Gaborik won't count towards our 12 forwards rostered

2 forwards signed Ryan and White. Brady and Batherson back on ELC gives us 4 forwards.

Duclair, Tierney, Brown and Paul RFA and all due significant raises and likely back. This 4 could easily cost north of 10 million to sign.

So forwards total to this point is approx 22 million.

On D Boro is likely back giving us 4 D. Totaling about 17 million.

Goalies = 3.3

Total so far: 42.3

8 forwards , 4 D, 2 G

So we need to still sign 5 forwards and 3 D.

So about 18 million spent on 8 more players and it doesn't even include Pageau.

We will easily reach the cap floor.

Everyone freaked out last year and I said not to worry and we were fine.

 

[GCK]

Ottawa Senators - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Gaborik won't count towards our 12 forwards rostered

2 forwards signed Ryan and White. Brady and Batherson back on ELC gives us 4 forwards.

Duclair, Tierney, Brown and Paul RFA and all due significant raises and likely back. This 4 could easily cost north of 10 million to sign.

So forwards total to this point is approx 22 million.

On D Boro is likely back giving us 4 D. Totaling about 17 million.

Goalies = 3.3

Total so far: 42.3

8 forwards , 4 D, 2 G

So we need to still sign 5 forwards and 3 D.

So about 18 million spent on 8 more players and it doesn't even include Pageau.

We will easily reach the cap floor.

Everyone freaked out last year and I said not to worry and we were fine.

I’m not freaking out, you started by saying we need to be careful. I said we have no issues with White and Ryan contracts because they help us get to the floor.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

We need to be careful because last time we weren't and had to rebuild. No chance to pivot when you've blown half you wad on junk.

Now it'll happen again and we'll all be told its the other actually good players' fault.

 

[DJB]

I’m not freaking out, you started by saying we need to be careful. I said we have no issues with White and Ryan contracts because they help us get to the floor.

And we can't overspend when we are a cap floor only team

 

[GCK]

And we can't overspend when we are a cap floor only team

I’m lost I honestly don’t even remember what contract you were worried about.

 

[DJB]

I’m lost I honestly don’t even remember what contract you were worried about.

Pageau

 

[Tundraman]

Sure hope Dorion has a signed contract on his desk since he's playing Pageau against the Habs. If he doesn't and is only playing him because they are making progress it isn't a smart move whether he is injured or not. Not trading him and letting him play out til he's a UFA hoping to sign hm after the deadline would not make sense either because it would require an over-payment to keep him. Anything else but a signed deal reflects badly on Dorion's judgement imo.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Sure hope Dorion has a signed contract on his desk since he's playing Pageau against the Habs. If he doesn't and is only playing him because they are making progress it isn't a smart move whether he is injured or not. Not trading him and letting him play out til he's a UFA hoping to sign hm after the deadline would not make sense either because it would require an over-payment to keep him. Anything else but a signed deal reflects badly on Dorion's judgement imo.

Agree completely. Stupid move.

Pen on paper or no play.

 

[MatchesMalone]

That is impossible to say for a few years.

Impossible to say for sure, but I've been a draft fanatic since the early 2000s and you can generally get a fairly good idea of the quality of a draft by the time of the draft year.

I will be shocked if this draft ends up being better than 2003 or 2015. In my estimation, it might be 4th best of the last 20 years, behind 2003, 2015 and 2008.

 

[GCK]

I think it could be better than 2003. 2015 is now the best IMO and 2008 had some great D but also a ton of 1st round misses.

 

[Matsens15]

So , I guess we will hold on to Pageau.