Yanni Gourde vs. Dylan Larkin

Yanni Gourde vs. Dylan Larkin


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JoVel

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Larkin has much more potential. I wouldn't be surprised if last season ends up being the best in Gourde's career. I'd be happy with him being a 50 point player while being a pain in opponents' asses.
 

VoluntaryDom

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At the moment it is Gourde by a hair but larkin is much younger so can’t really go against him here
 

Filthy Dangles

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Oct 23, 2014
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This is like asking Brayden Point or Gus Nyquist......don't be fooled by their point totals on the surface.
 

VoluntaryDom

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Idk about that, could see larkin being ahead already but several lengths is disingenuous
It is not Gourde by a hair, it’s Larkin by several lengths.

Reverse their situations and you think Gourde would look like the same player having to be “the guy” on Detroit?
 

Filthy Dangles

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View attachment 134837 View attachment 134839 Idk about that, could see larkin being ahead already but several lengths is disingenuous

You realize most of those are "On-Ice" stats, i.e how a team does with a player on the ice. A mediocre player like Gourde can see good results playing with good players. A better player like Larkin, who doesn't have good players around him can see the same results simply because his team isn't anywhere near as good.
 

VoluntaryDom

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You realize most of those are "On-Ice" stats, i.e how a team does with a player on the ice. A mediocre player like Gourde can see good results playing with good players. A better player like Larkin, who doesn't have good players around him can see the same results simply because his team isn't anywhere near as good.
Ok, but Gourde had way better numbers than Larkin. Team can account for some of that but Gourde’s QOT wasn’t high.

Also, did you just call Gourde mediocre? I get that he shot unsustainably high but the dude had 64 points without top unit PP time and was one of the top players in 5v5 points per 60, in addition to good raw and relative possession numbers. Probably won’t score 60 points again but the guy is far from mediocre.
 

VoluntaryDom

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Also, even relative to his team Larkin has a below-average xgf%. His xgf is fine but xga putrid, pointing to a player who isn’t very good defensively. In terms of QOC and QOT the gap between the two in each player is rather similar which roughly approximates to similar difficulty ice time, larkin playing with slightly better players and against slightly better ones. Granted it’s flawed since it’s TOI QOC and QOT and in reality Larkin probably faced decently tougher competition but that doesn’t excuse the massive defensive gap. So to me Larkin is better offensively and Gourde defensively, and overall they are pretty close. Gourde did have better Es production this season but some of that can be attributed to his luck.
 

stl76

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Jul 2, 2015
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View attachment 134837 View attachment 134839 Idk about that, could see larkin being ahead already but several lengths is disingenuous
Seriously, man...cell phone screen shots of "on-ice" stats where the stats are cut off? Give me a break. Stats (advanced and otherwise) are great and all, but any non-lightning homer can clearly see Larkin is a legit top line talent playing on a lower tier team while Gourde is a middle sixer coming off a likely career year on a top team.

I don't need colorful bars to tell me that Larkin is WAY closer to Point than Gourde.
 
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stl76

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Also, even relative to his team Larkin has a below-average xgf%. His xgf is fine but xga putrid, pointing to a player who isn’t very good defensively. In terms of QOC and QOT the gap between the two in each player is rather similar which roughly approximates to similar difficulty ice time, larkin playing with slightly better players and against slightly better ones. Granted it’s flawed since it’s TOI QOC and QOT and in reality Larkin probably faced decently tougher competition but that doesn’t excuse the massive defensive gap. So to me Larkin is better offensively and Gourde defensively, and overall they are pretty close. Gourde did have better Es production this season but some of that can be attributed to his luck.
Look at the defense/goaltending Larkin played with, then compare it to that which Gourde played with.

QoT (and QoC for that matter, tho in this case QoT is more relevant) is based on either TOI or Corsi-for. Neither is an objective measure of player ability. Gourde and Larkin's QoT stats may look similar, but there is still a rather large difference between the two which is not captured by that statistic.

Frankly, I think you're getting caught up using statistics that you don't fully understand. I say this not to be an asshole, but in the hopes that it may inspire you to learn more about the numbers you're quoting and lead to a deeper understanding than posting pictures/graphs as proof without explanation.
 
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VoluntaryDom

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Seriously, man...cell phone screen shots of "on-ice" stats where the stats are cut off? Give me a break. Stats (advanced and otherwise) are great and all, but any non-lightning homer can clearly see Larkin is a legit top line talent playing on a lower tier team while Gourde is a middle sixer coming off a likely career year on a top team.

I don't need colorful bars to tell me that Larkin is WAY closer to Point than Gourde.
Both Larkin and gourde are legit top liners. Well, Larkin more of a 2c but a high end one who is easily as good as some 1ws. Don’t see how someone who is a “middle 6er” can score 64 points without top unit PP time and good possession stats (better xgf relative to team than Larkin despite being on a better team) but alright lol. I don’t expect Gourde to replicate his offense fully but he doesn’t have to to be good, and to be completely fair he missed the net in grade a chances a decent bit which slightly inflates his shooting percentage. I expected the issue here to be people overrating larkin but it seems to be people underrating Gourde. Moving forward I don’t see why Gourde wouldn’t be a 15-25 goal 45-55 Point player with strong defense and possession and the ability to carry inferior teammates like Cory conacher.
 

stl76

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Both Larkin and gourde are legit top liners. Well, Larkin more of a 2c but a high end one who is easily as good as some 1ws. Don’t see how someone who is a “middle 6er” can score 64 points without top unit PP time and good possession stats (better xgf relative to team than Larkin despite being on a better team) but alright lol. I don’t expect Gourde to replicate his offense fully but he doesn’t have to to be good, and to be completely fair he missed the net in grade a chances a decent bit which slightly inflates his shooting percentage. I expected the issue here to be people overrating larkin but it seems to be people underrating Gourde. Moving forward I don’t see why Gourde wouldn’t be a 15-25 goal 45-55 Point player with strong defense and possession and the ability to carry inferior teammates like Cory conacher.
You just described a best-case-scenario in which Gourde is a second line player. That is a middle sixer IMO.
 

VoluntaryDom

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Look at the defense/goaltending Larkin played with, then compare it to that which Gourde played with.

QoT (and QoC for that matter, tho in this case QoT is more relevant) is based on either TOI or Corsi-for. Neither is an objective measure of player ability. Gourde and Larkin's QoT stats may look similar, but there is still a rather large difference between the two which is not captured by that statistic.
Yes, in this stat it is by TOI and I addressed why that probably underrates larkins competition and might overrate his teammates some, but doesn’t make up for the large gap in xgf even when relative to team. Also goaltending doesn’t affect any of these stats idk why you mentioned it.
 

VoluntaryDom

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You just described a best-case-scenario in which Gourde is a second line player. That is a middle sixer IMO.
I described a best case scenario where he’s a 50+ Point guy from the middle 6 while also bringing strong defense and possession without top linemates and collecting a lot of his points at es, that sounds like a first line player to me.
 

stl76

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Yes, in this stat it is by TOI and I addressed why that probably underrates larkins competition and might overrate his teammates some, but doesn’t make up for the large gap in xgf even when relative to team. Also goaltending doesn’t affect any of these stats idk why you mentioned it.
Because a team's goaltending (maybe to a lesser extent) and defense have a considerable impact on how forwards have to play the game.
 

VoluntaryDom

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Because a team's goaltending (maybe to a lesser extent) and defense have a considerable impact on how forwards have to play the game.
That would affect the rest of his forward teammates too no? So he should still have a very good relative xgf% then if that is affecting his whole team... yet he is below 50th percentile in that too. Yikes.
 

Albus Dumbledore

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Mar 28, 2015
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Both Larkin and gourde are legit top liners. Well, Larkin more of a 2c but a high end one who is easily as good as some 1ws. Don’t see how someone who is a “middle 6er” can score 64 points without top unit PP time and good possession stats (better xgf relative to team than Larkin despite being on a better team) but alright lol. I don’t expect Gourde to replicate his offense fully but he doesn’t have to to be good, and to be completely fair he missed the net in grade a chances a decent bit which slightly inflates his shooting percentage. I expected the issue here to be people overrating larkin but it seems to be people underrating Gourde. Moving forward I don’t see why Gourde wouldn’t be a 15-25 goal 45-55 Point player with strong defense and possession and the ability to carry inferior teammates like Cory conacher.
again a role player is better then that guy aka gourde and larkin?

gourdes 18% shooting percentage isnt going to stay that way either, expect larkins numbers to improve with age, and a better team. Same cant be said for gourde who is 26 he isnt going to get better most likely.
 

stl76

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I described a best case scenario where he’s a 50+ Point guy from the middle 6 while also bringing strong defense and possession without top linemates and collecting a lot of his points at es, that sounds like a first line player to me.
Ha, ok. Then you and I have a sizable difference in the definition of a top line player.

That would affect the rest of his forward teammates too no? So he should still have a very good relative xgf% then if that is affecting his whole team... yet he is below 50th percentile in that too. Yikes.
Not when his teammates are tasked with playing a very different role than him.
 
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