The odds for that are indeed quite bad. You're lucky to get one NHL career player out of those 2 picks combined, and there's no presumption of quality in that statement.
And the Capitals have been a below-average team when it comes to finding talent outside of the 1st round in the NHL draft. They're really good at picking out talent in the 1st (especially consider they've been a late 1st round drafting team for the past decade), but their record drops off faster than most outside of the 1st round. That Cody Eakin pick you mentioned earlier is literally the first Capitals 3rd round selection since Steve Konowalchuk in 1991 to become a career NHLer. Their second round has been marginally better with Orlov and Neuvirth (and Bowey as a somewhat promising prospect), but even still there's a huge gap between Matt Pettinger in 2000 and Neuvirth in 2006 where they got nothing from their 2nd round picks. For the 2001-2010 decade, the Caps hit on only 16.67% (2/12) 2nd round picks and 12.5% (1/8) of their 3rd round picks. Both of those numbers are well beneath the averages across the league.
