Confirmed Signing with Link: [WSH] Backstrom extension with Caps (5 years, $9.2M AAV)

[sens13]

This I don't get. How is Toews contract worse?

Basically the same point output the last two years, both palyers are pretty good defensively, yet Toews contract has 3 more years, Backstroms has 5 after this year.

Last 2 years
Toews 116pts in 128GP (0.90pts/GP)
Backstrom 109pts in 119GP (0.91pts/GP)

Considering Toews (Saad/Nylander this year) has played with a lot worse players than Backstrom (Ovechkin/Wilson) has in those 120 or so games, is Toews contract bad if Backstroms isn't?

Why are you only comparing the last 2 years?

Go back and compare from when Toews signed his deal and you’ll see why.

Edit:
Just quickly looked up the numbers. Since 2015 (year his new deal started) toews has been putting up 0.8 ppg with 3 50 point seasons. In the same time frame backstrom has been 0.95 ppg.

Oh and also don’t forget that Toews signed at 16% of the cap while this is at 11%. That's a big difference too.

Do you see why now?

 

[Fataldogg]

Solid signing. He is a great center. Think he will age well. Speed was never his game. One of the few guys in the NHL who can control the pace of the play while on the ice.

Not for nothing, he has always been underpaid. He deserved a pay day at some point in his career. After playing an integral role in them winning a Cup, I'd say he earned this.

 

[LeHab]

According to capgeek, the year his current contract was signed represented 11.28% of cap hit while this one is at 11.29%.

 

[varano]

One of the most consistent centers in the game.... Great term... Solid cap hit.

Just incredible how underrated Backstrom is

 

[HuskyBruinPride]

Based on....

The fact this takes him to age 37. 9.2 isn't that bad for his current production but it's risky to assume he'll keep up that sort of play age 35+. Personally if it was me I would like to see the salary maybe a million or so less, but that's just my opinion...


So I guess brutal was maybe a bit harsh. But I do think it's risky in the later years.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Great deal.
Pay your players that won you a cup. And who you think will continue to produce and play at a high level.

 

[hawksrule]

Will be an ugly last few years.

 

[Fallschirmyager]

Holtby was gone the second Samsonov made the team out of camp.

Well there is gone as a UFA maybe trade his rights at the draft and there's gone at the deadline for as much as you can ste......I mean get.

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

Kuznetsov is better.

fuelled by?

 

[AllIDoIsLie]

Another big goalie contact...

 

[CanadienShark]

Totally out of the blue. Didn't even realize he was an impending UFA. He's an incredible player, one of my top 5-7 favourites in the league. This is a good deal for the Caps. Term isn't too long, and cap hit is very reasonable.

 

[Melkor]

Tavares is better by a good bit at this point and is younger, odd comparison.

Nah, he's not

 

[4thTierSport]

I hope this isn't implying tavares is on a bad contract...
Tavares was 4 years younger, and scores significantly more

Backstrom is .97ppg and Tavares is .94ppg.

Seriously it takes two seconds to Google.

 

[DutchNYR]

Backstrom is .97ppg and Tavares is .94ppg.

Seriously it takes two seconds to Google.

Doesn't matter, Tavares is way, way better than Bäckström.

Kapanen is also a better player than McDavid is, because you know, he plays for the Maple Leafz.

 

[Drake1588]

Great player, and both parties want him to be a lifer with the Caps, which simplified negotiations. The term is a little team-friendly, as plenty of players would push for a contract that extends into that age 38, 39, and/or 40 year. Stopping at age 37 is pretty reasonable. It should arrest the notion of a precipitous decline in the outyears of the deal.

 

[CoopersFalls]

What does Washington care about what will happen in 5 years time? Like the Pens, this is the Caps' window and they'll keep the guys who can help them win within the next handful of years even if it hurts after that.

Were they supposed to let Backstrom walk and lose a big part of their depth all because they're worried about being stuck with an albatross in 5 years time?

They’re going to lose a big part of their depth anyway because now someone else will have to leave. To win the cup, you need depth. You don’t win by paying players more than what they’re worth.

See Chicago’s roster for Example A of what happens when you pay guys based on what they did instead of what they’re going to do.

 

[Roshi]

Pretty standard deal looking at the percentages. Worth of noting is that cap is rumoured to be going up couple millions for next year too, so this propably drops From 11.3% -> somewhere around 10,95%.

Heres some comparables;

PLAYER CAP PERCENTAGE (SIGNED @ AGE) PPG / CONTRACT LENGTH
Toews 14,7% (2015, @ 27 years) PPG 0,9 / Contract 8 years
P. Kane 14,7% (2015, @ 27 years) PPG 0,97 / Contract 8 years
Panarin 14,2% (2019, @ 28 years) PPG 0,99 / Contract 7 years
Malkin 13,8% (2014, @ 26 years) PPG 1,22 / Contract 8 years
Tavares 13,8% (2018, @ 28 years) PPG 0,92 / Contract 7 years
Kopitar 13,7% (2016, @ 29 years) PPG 0,9 / Contract 8 years
Benn 12,7% (2017, @ 28 years) PPG 0,88 / Contract 8 years
Seguin 12,1% (2019, @ 26 years) PPG 0,87 / Contract 8 yeras
Giroux 12,1% (2014, @ 26 years) PPG 0,91 / Contract 8 years
Stone 11,7% (2019, @ 27 years) PPG 0,84 / Contract 8 years
Voracek 11,3% (2016, @ 27 years) PPG 0,86 / Contract 8 years
Backstrom ~11,3 % (2020, @ 32 years) PPG 0,97 / Contract 5 years
Skinner 11% (2019, @ 27 years) PPG 0,67 / Contract 8 years
Johansen 10,7% (2017, @ 25 years) PPG 0,76 / Contract 8 years
ROR 10,3% (2016, @ 25 years) PPG 0,83 / Contract 7 years
Wheeler 10,1% (2019, @ 33 years) PPG 0,81 / Contract 5 years
Couture 9,8% (2019, @ 30 years) PPG 0,8 / Contract 8 years
Duchene 9,8% (2019, @ 28 years) PPG 0,74 / Contract 7 years
Hayes 8,8% (2019, @ 27 years) PPG 0,6 / Contract 7 years
JVR 8,8% (2018, @ 29 years) PPG 0,65 / Contract 5 years
E. Kane 8,8% (2018, @ 27 years) PPG 0,62 / Contract 7 years
Lee 8,6% (2019, @ 29 years) PPG 0,61 / Contract 7 years
Pavelski 8,6% (2019, @ 35 years) PPG 0,79 / Contract 3 years
Pacioretty 8,6% (2019, @ 31 years) PPG 0,71 / Contract 4 years

As you can see From this list Backstrom has 3rd highest career PPG before signing his new contract and he is 12th on the percentage-list. I didnt account U25 signed contracts, or before 2014.

Obviously the reason Backs isnt third on the list like his career PPG would suggest, there is the regression propability with the age. But to be right where his percentages are he is totally fine regressing to 0,8 PPG player (which he actually pretty much already is), and even if he regresses to 0,6-0,7 PPG player he is Still overpaid "only" roughly by a million or two. Thats fine for a franchise legend.

Most of this list were younger (26-29) when signing their contracts, but also factor in that those contracts are 2-3 years longer. Adding 3 years to this contract likely brings it down to Couture numbers, and that seems fair to me.

Count in that for the last 4-5 years he has been one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league, he deserved not to give a hometown discount. Which is something I see most were expecting (I was hoping for it too). While this is not home discount -deal, its a fair one.

Negative side is the structure of the contract. Its pretty much untradable before september 2025, after the last signing bonus is paid off. No cap floor team is going to take that 6 million bonus to their hands. But as the expecations are that he will retire in Washington anyways, why would you mind about how hard it is to trade him. Its Under 35 contract, people are keen to get rashes and other injuries if they just cant keep up.

Conclusion; This deal gets 92% approval rate From Roshi.

** I dont guarantee the numbers on this post are necessarily correct, I checked those on a rush, but they can give quite a decent guideline.

 

[Hawkaholic]

3 of Toews years of a $10M cap hit he had ~50pts. That’s why it’s a much worse contract. I like how you only talk about the last two years solely because one of those years includes Toews only 80pt season.

I am talking about right now, not 2+ years ago. His most recent 100+GP. So what he did 2+ years ago is more indicative of the player he is than the last 100+GP? Makes sense.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Why are you only comparing the last 2 years?

Go back and compare from when Toews signed his deal and you’ll see why.

Edit:
Just quickly looked up the numbers. Since 2015 (year his new deal started) toews has been putting up 0.8 ppg with 3 50 point seasons. In the same time frame backstrom has been 0.95 ppg.

Oh and also don’t forget that Toews signed at 16% of the cap while this is at 11%. That's a big difference too.

Do you see why now?

Because it's his most recent play that we are comparing? Why are you bringing up something that's in the past?

"3-50pt seasons" I mean, really it's more like 2-60pt seasons, and over those years his "on-pace" is 60pts since he missed a bunch of games.

No I still don't see, Backstrom makes 1.3mil less for 2 more years than Toews, that's all that matters. What they signed for at the time of the deal means little. If Toews were to sign a contract today, he would get a very similar contract to what Backstrom has now. it's really not debatable.

Look at this and tell me where Backstrom is so much better than Toews the last 3 years.
Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

Also, the last 4 seasons (including this year)
Backstrom 137ES pts in 282GP 0.49ESpts/GP
Toews 134ES pts in 275GP 0.49ESpt/GP

This year
Backstrom 14ES pts in 39GP 0.36ES pt/GP
Toews 26ES pts in 47GP 0.55ES pts/GP

We are talking about right now, right?

 

[nbwingsfan]

I am talking about right now, not 2+ years ago. His most recent 100+GP. So what he did 2+ years ago is more indicative of the player he is than the last 100+GP? Makes sense.

His last 4.5 seasons are more indicative than his one career year he randomly had that skewed his stats yes. He’s been a ~50-60pt player for looking like 4/5 years now.

 

[Hawkaholic]

His last 4.5 seasons are more indicative than his one career year he randomly had that skewed his stats yes. He’s been a ~50-60pt player for looking like 4/5 years now.

They are pretty much identical 5 on 5 for the last 4 seasons. He wasn't a 50-60pt player last year, and isn't looking like one this year, either. It's not Toews' fault that the Hawks can't produce on the PP. They unfortunately don't have Ovechkin on their team.

 

[nbwingsfan]

They are pretty much identical 5 on 5 for the last 4 seasons. He wasn't a 50-60pt player last year, and isn't looking like one this year, either. It's not Toews' fault that the Hawks can't produce on the PP. They unfortunately don't have Ovechkin on their team.

Is Toews not part of the PP? If he is and isn’t producing then yes that makes him part of the problem.

 

[Hawkaholic]

Is Toews not part of the PP? If he is and isn’t producing then yes that makes him part of the problem.

Barely, he's more of a net front presence/below the goal line option than anything. The PP runs through Kane, and Kane is a big part of why the PP is not good. Kane plays Backstroms role, Hawks don't have a guy like OV for OV's role.

 

[Ezpz]

I am not sure what the fuss is. Backstrom is the second most important player in caps history and one of the iconic players of their current generation. Even if he declines as a player you're not going to find a better player than him in free agency. Panarin is basically the only elite player to hit free agency in the last decade and he handpicked his destination without considering 29 teams. Tavares same thing. The last great free agent signing was Hossa ten years prior. Personally I would take him 1st overall in a 2006 re-draft and think he's more of a HoFer than Toews.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

Backstrom is .97ppg and Tavares is .94ppg.

Seriously it takes two seconds to Google.

Tavares is at .95ppg in fact. But really, it's not controversial to say Tavares scores more than Backstrom.

Tavares also scores at a 0.43 gpg pace in his career. Backstrom at .26 gpg.