Prospect Info: Wpg Jets - the best drafting team in the NHL

[YWGinYYZ]

Picks since 2011

(snip)

In sortable, tabular format:

Team|Drafted| At least 1 NHL game |> 50 NHL games
Anaheim|38|16|10
Winnipeg|44|17|9
Carolina|44|15|9
Chicago|52|13|9
Buffalo|50|18|8
Tampa|45|16|8
Columbus|41|16|8
Edmonton|47|14|8
Florida|44|14|8
Detroit|43|12|8
Ottawa|42|16|7
Dallas|45|13|7
Vancouver|40|13|7
Calgary|40|15|6
Nashville|48|13|6
Phoenix|45|13|6
New Jersey|38|12|6
Montreal|39|11|6
Philadelphia|44|10|6
San Jose|41|10|6
Boston|39|14|5
Pittsburgh|35|14|5
Toronto|46|13|5
NY Islanders|42|13|4
Los Angeles|39|11|4
Colorado|38|11|4
St. Louis|44|10|4
Washington|37|8|4
Minnesota|39|8|3
NY Rangers|35|6|3

 

[angrymnky]

Top 5 - [Jets' pick]
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, R. Strome [7. Scheifele]
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk, G. Reinhart, Rielly [9. Trouba]
2013: MacKinnon, Barkov, Drouin, Jones, E. Lindholm [13. Morrissey]
2014: Ekblad, S. Reinhart, Draisaitl, Bennett, Dal Colle [9. Ehlers]
2015: McDavid, Eichel, D. Strome, Marner, Hanifin [17. Connor]
2016: Matthews, [2. Laine], Dubois, Puljujarvi, Juolevi

Scheifele beats his top 5 class. Trouba beats his top 5 class.

Where are the other players that moved in or above that top 5 class? Where's Kucherov, Forsberg, etc.
This thread is what happens when a happy cheerleading thread butts up against people that like a little more analysis in their discussions.

 

[jorbjorb]

In sortable, tabular format:

Team|Drafted| At least 1 NHL game |> 50 NHL games
Anaheim|38|16|10
Winnipeg|44|17|9
Carolina|44|15|9
Chicago|52|13|9
Buffalo|50|18|8
Tampa|45|16|8
Columbus|41|16|8
Edmonton|47|14|8
Florida|44|14|8
Detroit|43|12|8
Ottawa|42|16|7
Dallas|45|13|7
Vancouver|40|13|7
Calgary|40|15|6
Nashville|48|13|6
Phoenix|45|13|6
New Jersey|38|12|6
Montreal|39|11|6
Philadelphia|44|10|6
San Jose|41|10|6
Boston|39|14|5
Pittsburgh|35|14|5
Toronto|46|13|5
NY Islanders|42|13|4
Los Angeles|39|11|4
Colorado|38|11|4
St. Louis|44|10|4
Washington|37|8|4
Minnesota|39|8|3
NY Rangers|35|6|3

someone should make this based off points.

 

[surixon]

Where are the other players that moved in or above that top 5 class? Where's Kucherov, Forsberg, etc.
This thread is what happens when a happy cheerleading thread butts up against people that like a little more analysis in their discussions.

I'm not entirely sure what your getting at. The person posted the top 5 of the draft and then included the Jets pick in brackets after the top 5. There was no attempt done to redo the top 5 of past drafts. Obviously both of Kucherov and Forsberg would go in the top 3 in a re-draft

 

[Gm0ney]

I took a look some of the draft records of teams in the Jets' ballpark:

Team | Avg Pick | Games | Goals | Assists | Points | 100+GP
EDM|2.8|1382|274|505|779|6
TBL|19.8|1569|297|469|766|6
FLA|10.0|1333|267|392|659|5
WPG|9.5|1478|257|389|646|5
CGY|17.2|1011|247|351|598|3
CAR|13.3|1411|165|378|543|6
COL|14.5|874|215|314|529|2
BUF|8.0|1260|172|301|473|5
CBJ|13.3|1183|167|297|464|3
TOR|10.2|782|144|249|393|2
NYI|11.0|544|73|135|208|1

That's players drafted since 2011, and their games and points for the drafting team. Games and points elsewhere weren't counted (e.g. Yakupov's 9 points in STL or whatever, Zadorov's points in Colorado, etc.).

So the Jets are among the best. Tampa and Calgary have done very well for their average first pick ranking. Buffalo's underperformed. The Jets have more games, Florida's got a few more points (over half of that is because Hellebuyck doesn't rack up any points).

Tampa really crushed the 2011 draft - a lot of their points are from those guys, so they've managed to pile up quite a few points over the years. The Leafs good picks OTOH, are from the last 3 drafts, so they haven't had time to accumulate (if Matthews, Marner and Nylander all hit 60 points next year, they'd move up a lot). The Jets have been pretty steady - adding regular players from every draft (expecting Connor to be a regular player next year).

Other takeaways: how does Garth Snow still have a job? He made a couple of good moves for Leddy and Boychuk and has otherwise sucked in every imaginable way.

 

[Gm0ney]

Where are the other players that moved in or above that top 5 class? Where's Kucherov, Forsberg, etc.
This thread is what happens when a happy cheerleading thread butts up against people that like a little more analysis in their discussions.

Well, you know me - the big cheerleader around here...

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Gm0ney: thanks for that - very interesting. WPG has done well, but Tampa has really crushed it, if you're looking at it from a standpoint of the return based on points. FLA and WPG are pretty even, EDM should be where they are (based on their average pick position).

The other team that's done extremely well based on their draft position is CGY - that's pretty impressive.

I don't think the Jets have drafted the best of all teams, but I do think they've done extremely well in the 1st round. 2nd round is meh, though there are still some returns that aren't in yet. They're top 5, if nothing else.

 

[Whileee]

Where are the other players that moved in or above that top 5 class? Where's Kucherov, Forsberg, etc.
This thread is what happens when a happy cheerleading thread butts up against people that like a little more analysis in their discussions.

Looking forward to your analysis.

 

[Gm0ney]

Gm0ney: thanks for that - very interesting. WPG has done well, but Tampa has really crushed it, if you're looking at it from a standpoint of the return based on points. FLA and WPG are pretty even, EDM should be where they are (based on their average pick position).

The other team that's done extremely well based on their draft position is CGY - that's pretty impressive.

I don't think the Jets have drafted the best of all teams, but I do think they've done extremely well in the 1st round. 2nd round is meh, though there are still some returns that aren't in yet. They're top 5, if nothing else.

That 2011 draft for Tampa was crazy good. Almost 75% of their 2011-16 drafted player points and 60% of their games are from that one class. Since then only Drouin (3rd overall) and Point (3rd round steal) are the only significant producers. Paquette is a decent role player too I guess.

To compare, the Jets 2011, 2012 and 2013 draft classes combined don't add up to 75% of their points from drafted players.

 

[Whileee]

TB was also playoff teams those years and not picking within top 10 4/6 times. Also Kucherov is better than any guy that the jets have drafted (Chef is close, Laine possibly) and they got him in the 2nd. Give me Vas over Helle. Trouba trumps all TB Dmen though. paquette+namestnikov > lowry+copp, id give the edge ehlers > drouin.

Connor and Roslovic havent done anything substantial in the NHL yet so theyre still TBD

Then you add Killorn, Point, Palat (7th round!), TJ...i think TB has the edge in depth, WPG might have an edge in elite talent with picking high

I give the edge to TB since they dont have the luxury of picking early. WPG is not a bad drafting team, but they have the luxury of picking much earlier

I like Scheifele as much or more than Kucherov going forward, largely because he's a C and just about as productive offensively now.

TB has been terrific and probably better than the Jets overall, but they did draft Namestnikov ahead of Kucherov and waited until round 7 to get Palat. So there is a bit of a random element, there.

It looks like the Jets just haven't put a foot wrong on all but one of their first round picks (Stanley!). I'm not a fan of the DeAngelo pick for TB, for a number of reasons, especially since he was taken just ahead of Schmaltz, Fabbri, Kapanen and Pastrnak. Koekkoek was a dud in 2012, and I can imagine the pitchforks that would be out for Chevy if he had selected him just ahead of Forsberg.

 

[Whileee]

That 2011 draft for Tampa was crazy good. Almost 75% of their 2011-16 drafted player points and 60% of their games are from that one class. Since then only Drouin (3rd overall) and Point (3rd round steal) are the only significant producers. Paquette is a decent role player too I guess.

To compare, the Jets 2011, 2012 and 2013 draft classes combined don't add up to 75% of their points from drafted players.

Agree, 2011 was a huge draft for TB. Still, they drafted Matthew Peca from the Pembroke Lumber Kings in the 7th round before Palat.

 

[Evil Little]

Where are the other players that moved in or above that top 5 class? Where's Kucherov, Forsberg, etc.
This thread is what happens when a happy cheerleading thread butts up against people that like a little more analysis in their discussions.

Kucherov is at the top of a redraft, maybe ahead of Scheifele, maybe just behind.

Forsberg is near the top of a redraft close behind Lindholm and Trouba.

Don't really get your point, though. There's quite a bit of analysis in this thread and much of it is quite favourable to the Jets, even if it's not as decisively favourable as the thread title.

 

[JetsFan815]

I took a look some of the draft records of teams in the Jets' ballpark:

Team | Avg Pick | Games | Goals | Assists | Points | 100+GP
EDM|2.8|1382|274|505|779|6
TBL|19.8|1569|297|469|766|6
FLA|10.0|1333|267|392|659|5
WPG|9.5|1478|257|389|646|5
CGY|17.2|1011|247|351|598|3
CAR|13.3|1411|165|378|543|6
COL|14.5|874|215|314|529|2
BUF|8.0|1260|172|301|473|5
CBJ|13.3|1183|167|297|464|3
TOR|10.2|782|144|249|393|2
NYI|11.0|544|73|135|208|1

That's players drafted since 2011, and their games and points for the drafting team. Games and points elsewhere weren't counted (e.g. Yakupov's 9 points in STL or whatever, Zadorov's points in Colorado, etc.).

So the Jets are among the best. Tampa and Calgary have done very well for their average first pick ranking. Buffalo's underperformed. The Jets have more games, Florida's got a few more points (over half of that is because Hellebuyck doesn't rack up any points).

Tampa really crushed the 2011 draft - a lot of their points are from those guys, so they've managed to pile up quite a few points over the years. The Leafs good picks OTOH, are from the last 3 drafts, so they haven't had time to accumulate (if Matthews, Marner and Nylander all hit 60 points next year, they'd move up a lot). The Jets have been pretty steady - adding regular players from every draft (expecting Connor to be a regular player next year).

Other takeaways: how does Garth Snow still have a job? He made a couple of good moves for Leddy and Boychuk and has otherwise sucked in every imaginable way.

And some people on this board still question Steve Yzerman

 

[Whileee]

I took a look some of the draft records of teams in the Jets' ballpark:

Team | Avg Pick | Games | Goals | Assists | Points | 100+GP
EDM|2.8|1382|274|505|779|6
TBL|19.8|1569|297|469|766|6
FLA|10.0|1333|267|392|659|5
WPG|9.5|1478|257|389|646|5
CGY|17.2|1011|247|351|598|3
CAR|13.3|1411|165|378|543|6
COL|14.5|874|215|314|529|2
BUF|8.0|1260|172|301|473|5
CBJ|13.3|1183|167|297|464|3
TOR|10.2|782|144|249|393|2
NYI|11.0|544|73|135|208|1

That's players drafted since 2011, and their games and points for the drafting team. Games and points elsewhere weren't counted (e.g. Yakupov's 9 points in STL or whatever, Zadorov's points in Colorado, etc.).

So the Jets are among the best. Tampa and Calgary have done very well for their average first pick ranking. Buffalo's underperformed. The Jets have more games, Florida's got a few more points (over half of that is because Hellebuyck doesn't rack up any points).

Tampa really crushed the 2011 draft - a lot of their points are from those guys, so they've managed to pile up quite a few points over the years. The Leafs good picks OTOH, are from the last 3 drafts, so they haven't had time to accumulate (if Matthews, Marner and Nylander all hit 60 points next year, they'd move up a lot). The Jets have been pretty steady - adding regular players from every draft (expecting Connor to be a regular player next year).

Other takeaways: how does Garth Snow still have a job? He made a couple of good moves for Leddy and Boychuk and has otherwise sucked in every imaginable way.

Nicely done!

Two of the Jets best picks were D, who take a bit longer to develop and don't contribute as many points. But I'd take a top pairing like Trouba and Morrissey over most productive forwards.

 

[surixon]

Nicely done!

Two of the Jets best picks were D, who take a bit longer to develop and don't contribute as many points. But I'd take a top pairing like Trouba and Morrissey over most productive forwards.

I expect to see the Jets continue to advance up that list. It's only the last two seasons that we really have started to add skilled youth in Ehlers, Morrissey and most importantly Laine. Some more point producers in Connor and Roslovic should join the team over the next season. Maybe Maurice also gets smart and gives Petan a proper role which would also advance our points. I think our 2013 and 15 drafts might mirror their 2011 draft.

 

[Evil Little]

And some people on this board still question Steve Yzerman

Do you think he's been perfect?

I'll give him credit for quite a bit: he's drafted well, has made some good trades, he won't trade a player as soon as they ask for a trade (St. Louis, Drouin), he got great value out of Stamkos's and Kucherov's contracts.

But, like every G.M., he's done some things that make his team worse, such as the Callahan contract.

He also played chicken with his #1 centre at negotiation time, risking letting him 'walk for nothing'. (Though I know we're above criticizing people for doing things that they didn't do... *coughLaddsixbysixcough*)

Nicely done!

Two of the Jets best picks were D, who take a bit longer to develop and don't contribute as many points. But I'd take a top pairing like Trouba and Morrissey over most productive forwards.

Good point. It would be more interesting to see it ranked by GAR or WAR, as opposed to points.

For all the consternation over the Jets' drafting of defencemen, I think they've actually drafted better D since 2011 than most, if not all, of those teams.

 

[DRW204]

I like Scheifele as much or more than Kucherov going forward, largely because he's a C and just about as productive offensively now.

TB has been terrific and probably better than the Jets overall, but they did draft Namestnikov ahead of Kucherov and waited until round 7 to get Palat. So there is a bit of a random element, there.

It looks like the Jets just haven't put a foot wrong on all but one of their first round picks (Stanley!). I'm not a fan of the DeAngelo pick for TB, for a number of reasons, especially since he was taken just ahead of Schmaltz, Fabbri, Kapanen and Pastrnak. Koekkoek was a dud in 2012, and I can imagine the pitchforks that would be out for Chevy if he had selected him just ahead of Forsberg.

I'd take kucherov based off his clutchness and playoff performance as well.

I get your notion on them passing on kucherov, but if you know you can get the guy in the later round, why waste an early pick on him (same with palat).

 

[Whileee]

I'd take kucherov based off his clutchness and playoff performance as well.

I get your notion on them passing on kucherov, but if you know you can get the guy in the later round, why waste an early pick on him (same with palat).

I highly doubt they took 7 players before Palat that they didn't think were better than h because they were sure he'd be available late in the 7th. They took Namestnikov before Kucherov because they thought he was better, period. They were still great picks, but it does speak to their scouting process. Koekkoek over Forsberg is a swing and a miss.

 

[KingBogo]

I'd take kucherov based off his clutchness and playoff performance as well.

I get your notion on them passing on kucherov, but if you know you can get the guy in the later round, why waste an early pick on him (same with palat).

How would you know you would get a guy in the later rounds? You have no idea what other teams have on their draft boards. If one of your scouts saw value in a player there is no way you would assume no other teams also saw value. The world of draft eligible players is pretty well covered. Every time a team picks who they believe is the BPA at the time of their pick.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

I was impressed that Tampa had 6 players on the Canada's WJC team. All drafted from the 2015 and 2016 drafts. They also had the last cut 1st rounder Howden who should have made the team.

Also highly rated Czech defenceman Hajek. 2nd tounder in 2016.

Also with the above comparisons with Tampa vs Jets drafting. The scales would have been tipped in TB favour( even more so) if we did not lose the last game of the season in 2011/12 to Tampa. That loss allowed the Jets the 9th O.A. pick and Tampa the 10 th O.A. pick. We selected Trouba and T.B. then selected KooKoek.

 

[Whileee]

I was impressed that Tampa had 6 players on the Canada's WJC team. All drafted from the 2015 and 2016 drafts. They also had the last cut 1st rounder Howden who should have made the team.

Also highly rated Czech defenceman Hajek. 2nd tounder in 2016.

Also with the above comparisons with Tampa vs Jets drafting. The scales would have been tipped in TB favour( even more so) if we did not lose the last game of the season in 2011/12 to Tampa. That loss allowed the Jets the 9th O.A. pick and Tampa the 10 th O.A. pick. We selected Trouba and T.B. then selected KooKoek.

How is Hajek "highly rated" when his production is considerably below Stanley's, who is by all accounts a "bust"?

TB selected Koekkoek just before Forsberg was selected. They probably want that pick back. Making mistakes like that in the first round sort of cancels out fortunate 7th round picks, I would think.

 

[Flair Hay]

When it comes to us vs Tampa I'd say we have done better with 1st rounders but they were a bit ahead of the game with some outstanding picks outside the first.

Ducks have probably done the best on anyone but they've gone so heavy on D they haven't gotten the most out of those picks yet.

Jets would probably be the very best drafting team in the league if they snagged one or two great NHLers in the late rounds. Didn't happen, so they're not. But they've done very, very well at the key part of their offseason.

 

[Mud Turtle]

I highly doubt they took 7 players before Palat that they didn't think were better than h because they were sure he'd be available late in the 7th. They took Namestnikov before Kucherov because they thought he was better, period. They were still great picks, but it does speak to their scouting process. Koekkoek over Forsberg is a swing and a miss.

So how does a guy like Palat, who had the same number of points as #8 overall Sean Couturier, playing on the same team, fall to the end of the 7th round?
Sure he was 1.5 years older but he wasn't a small guy.

200 players selected between the two of them. How does the market not see this opportunity in the 3rd, 4th round etc?

 

[Whileee]

So how does a guy like Palat, who had the same number of points as #8 overall Sean Couturier, playing on the same team, fall to the end of the 7th round?
Sure he was 1.5 years older but he wasn't a small guy.

200 players selected between the two of them. How does the market not see this opportunity in the 3rd, 4th round etc?

In Palat's D+1 season, he had about the same NHLE as Logan Stanley did, despite playing forward. You can understand why scouts were a bit skeptical, though you would think that his D+2 season would have drawn interest before the 4th last pick in the draft. Not sure it means that the Lightning made a brilliant pick. They used their second of two 7th rounders to take a flyer on Palat, and he turned into gold, much to their surprise I'm sure. Without the surprising outcome with Palat, TB's drafting looks quite a bit more ordinary.

I think that there is probably a fair bit of inefficiency in the drafting process with regard to over-age prospects. The Jets have made some interesting picks with older players that might turn out here or there (e.g. Copp, Poolman, Appleton, Franklin).

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

I'd put teams like Calgary, Tampa, maybe Toronto and Edmonton up there too(in the last 5 to 7 seasons).

Scheifele was one of the best steals in the past couple years, Trouba is a clear No.1 D and was Top 5 in WAR this season, Morrissey might yet have more potential as compared to Trouba(IMO) as he is one of the Shapedt young Blueliners in the league, Ehlers is already Elite in his second season and is one of the Fastest players in the league, Laine is Laine(One of the Best pure snipers of our Generation, even though I hate the Term Generational now), Connor looks fairly good with an Elite Ceiling and Roslovic looks like he could be a solid 2nd Line Center in his future. I'm sure other teams will want to think they have the best drafting team due to baised opinions but I think the Jets are actually Top notch along with the other teams I named.