Would you trade a 1st round pick (not top 10) for another team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick?

Pens x

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Oct 8, 2016
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The Penguins have been pretty successful drafting after the 1st round. I’d probably trust Hextall and Burke to get more long-term value out of a 2nd, 3rd, 4th than a 1st pick around #20-25ish.

I don’t think I’d particularly call for that, but I wouldn’t be upset about that.
That’s just not true, dog. Since the 2013 draft, the best player they drafted outside of the first round is D. Simon and D. Sprong, and they are barely NHL players.

giphy.gif
 

majormajor

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
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Might be counting the chickens early on Newhook, but unless there's someone like that available on the board, I trade the Avs pick any day with their luck drafting outside lottery territory.

The Avs haven't been any better with 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths.

In the last decade Will Butcher is the only NHL regular they've drafted outside of the top ten picks!
 

Canes

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Oct 31, 2017
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If teams were willing to give away 1sts like that for such little value, it would have happened more often. The answer is a resounding no.
 

Super Hans

Stats Evangelist
Oct 9, 2016
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The Avs haven't been any better with 2nds, 3rds, and 4ths.

In the last decade Will Butcher is the only NHL regular they've drafted outside of the top ten picks!
I was thinking O'Reilly and Barrie, but can't believe how long ago that was already. :wally:
 
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IrishInOntario

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May 18, 2013
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Depends on how far outside the top 10 we're talking. If it's a pick in the 20's and the picks coming back are towards the first part of each round, I probably do it.

It also depends on what your franchise needs and where they are at...

So I'll use my Leafs as the case study. I'm going to assume that they're going to have a bottom 5-7 pick in the 1st round this year. If a team like Ottawa or Vancouver wanted the Leafs 1st this year and were willing to give up their 2nd, 3rd and 4th in return, I'd consider it... Why? Because Toronto's core of stars is pretty much set for the next half decade. What the Leafs need is a constant influx of young talent on ELCs to supplement their core, and draft picks that they can use to buy rentals at the deadline over the next 5 years, while they make runs. With the way Dubas has drafted recently, with guys like Robertson and Niemela beyond the 1st round, I want the management team to have more picks and opportunities to mine that talent.

Let me be clear, I'm not suggesting that I would make the deal every year, but in the right circumstances, with the right low 1st round pick, and the right trading partner, I'd consider it some years.
 

Rebels57

Former Flyers fan
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It would need to be in the 25-31 range to even consider trading it for a 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
 

deca guard

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Jun 22, 2019
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say you trade the 10th for the 35th , 65th , 95th . the odds 35 gonna be as good as 10 are very slim . then 65 and 95 odds even making the nhl are slim . obviously that trade not happening by the team with the 1st . but if that teams 1st is the 20th then theres a chance
 

Machinehead

GoAwayKakko
Jan 21, 2011
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Value tanks after the first round. I'd trade 2nd's and 3rd's for 4th's and 5th's ever year unless there were somebody I loved.

...but after the first round.
 

deckercky

Registered User
Oct 27, 2010
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If the jump from the first round pick to the second round pick is only ~10 picks, I believe it is roughly on par in terms of value. Ultimately depends on where there's someone you really want with the first round pick or whether there's a value pick you can get with the second pick.

I believe there's actually formulas the GMs have for the values of pick for pick trades.
 

Sniper99

Registered User
Jan 12, 2011
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Edmonton
painful to see the Leafs trade to get Biggs and couldve had Rakell and Gibson and then couldve had Konecny instead of Bracco
 
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Esq

in terrorem
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Feb 5, 2009
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I have this graph I made:

Draft160-GP.jpg


Value is actually quite close for finding an NHL player. So with that 11-30 pick you will find a player who sticks in the league around 60% of the time. With that 2nd rounder you will find that player ~30% of the time, with that 3rd rounder 20% and 4th rounder equals a 15% chance to land an NHLer. The accumulated value of those three picks gets awfully close to the value of that low first rounder.

If you don't see a guy you love, it's not the worst idea to trade down.
OT, but what I find most fascinating about this is the relative flatlining of success probabilities after you get into the 3rd round, and almost no variance once into round 5.
 

voxel

Testicle Terrorist
Feb 14, 2007
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I have this graph I made:

Draft160-GP.jpg


Value is actually quite close for finding an NHL player. So with that 11-30 pick you will find a player who sticks in the league around 60% of the time. With that 2nd rounder you will find that player ~30% of the time, with that 3rd rounder 20% and 4th rounder equals a 15% chance to land an NHLer. The accumulated value of those three picks gets awfully close to the value of that low first rounder.

If you don't see a guy you love, it's not the worst idea to trade down.

By purely games played it makes sense value wise but by points or impact... you don’t find many players outside the first two rounds. Hitting a player who plays 600GP and score 0.75PPG is way more important than two players at 300GP who score 0.375PPG.
 
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SwedishFire

Registered User
Mar 3, 2011
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Would you trade a first round pick that is not in the top 10 (i.e. 11 through 31) for another team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick?

Assume for the moment the draft takes place in a typical year. Another way to think of the question is, what is the probability a player at a certain draft position will turn out to be a star?

If you have a reson to it.
If you want to oick avguy that is a hidden gem, and is projected to get picked kn ghe 2nd, so yes. Everything is nit math. The math also depends on uour teams scouting and valueing. Some teams like Tampa finds player almost everyvtime in lower rounds. And teams like Edmonton does not.

If you are unsure - keep the first. If you have a deep draft,
Mostly - if you have a bunch of people you really belivee had what is takes - and is more than bottom 6 ers or 3rf pairing, yes. with a short span of peaks- trade to more picks.

If not sure keep the high value- 1st roundwr
 

Rodgerwilco

Entertainment boards w/ some Hockey mixed in.
Feb 6, 2014
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That’s just not true, dog. Since the 2013 draft, the best player they drafted outside of the first round is D. Simon and D. Sprong, and they are barely NHL players.

giphy.gif
Yeah I guess it has been quite some time since they drafted Guentzel, Jarry, Rust, Murray. Yikes time flies.
 

Northern Avs Fan

Registered User
May 27, 2019
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No. Well, only if the pick was between 27-31.

If this was the NFL, those picks outside of the 1st round are gold, but they’re not nearly as valuable in the NHL.

It’s really not that uncommon for a team to get no NHL players with their 6 picks after round one.
 

SotasicA

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Aug 25, 2014
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I imagine the OP means it's a random pick between 11-31. You can't know which one it is before the trade.

I mean it makes no sense if it's known to be 31st OA, and you get, say, 32nd overall back, plus all the other picks.
 

Mordoch

Registered User
Oct 19, 2019
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No. Well, only if the pick was between 27-31.

If this was the NFL, those picks outside of the 1st round are gold, but they’re not nearly as valuable in the NHL.

It’s really not that uncommon for a team to get no NHL players with their 6 picks after round one.
A basic difference is that an NHL football team simply has a significantly bigger roster and way more specialized positions. In hockey for example you have forwards and there is no real issue shifting a center to a wing position. By contrast not only do you have ultra specialized positions like the quarterback in the NHL, but a position such as tight end really is its own things with a team also possibly having tight ends used more for their blocking while others are mostly receiver types. This leaves more room for disagreements between teams about preferred draft options. (It also probably is more common for ultimately successful in the NFL football players to slip to a later round because the college team they were on did not use them particularly effectively, or had a lousy quarterback so people didn't realize how good a particular receiver was.)
 

Nylanderthal

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
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Would you trade a first round pick that is not in the top 10 (i.e. 11 through 31) for another team's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round pick?

Assume for the moment the draft takes place in a typical year. Another way to think of the question is, what is the probability a player at a certain draft position will turn out to be a star?
11 for 60+92+124? No
28 for 34+66+98? Yes.
 

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