Would you sign Duchene / Stone?

[GrantLemons]

I agree with what you are saying, but is that an argument to sign both considering how bad ticket sales have been this year despite us having them under contract?

Nobody is going already with both playing on our team. People don't buy that ownership is operating in good faith, and the ticket sales reflect that. Keeping Stone and Duchene will prevent further damage, but unless it leads to us being a contender (which it won't anytime soon with our spending restrictions) it won't fix the attendance issues that have already been created via intertwining the Senators brand with Melnyk's personal brand.

Might as well take advantage of the sunk cost of poor ticket sales and do a proper rebuild.

This is all true. The issues run so deep for this franchise, I just don't know how the current front office fixes it.

At this point, I don't think it matters what players the team ices. Something needs to give up top to turn this thing around.

If losing Stone and Duchene is a stepping stone (no pun intended) to real change, then so be it. Signing them and continuing with the status quo of how the organization operates isn't going to do squat. Whether it's at CTC or Lebreton.

 

[Sensung]

This is all true. The issues run so deep for this franchise, I just don't know how the current front office fixes it.

At this point, I don't think it matters what players the team ices. Something needs to give up top to turn this thing around.

If losing Stone and Duchene is a stepping stone (no pun intended) to real change, then so be it. Signing them and continuing with the status quo of how the organization operates isn't going to do squat. Whether it's at CTC or Lebreton.

One change is all that is needed, then everything else will start to fall in place. Until that change occurs, shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic will still see the good ship sink to the bottom.

#Melnykout

 

[coladin]

Before I get destroyed on my first post (I’m a long time lurker) I want to preface this post with 1) I hate Melnyk and 2) Duchene is my favourite player on the team.

That being said, if you became GM with a new owner today would you actually sign these guys? Given the “potential” (big assumption given PD) returns and the fact we could get picks / prospects who will contribute at the time our young core is ready to compete I’m starting to think maybe we are better off trading them?

I don’t believe Stone / Duchene will be the same type of players when we are ready to push for the playoffs and to be honest I want a shot at Lafreniere / Byfield next year. The worst thing that could happen is we sign both and end up 10th last missing the playoffs and a shot at a young superstar.

Steer me right HF boards, am I drinking the cool-aid? What would you do?

Welcome!

If I became GM I would absolutely sign them. The NHL has a lot of parity, and witnessing the 8 game losing streak where I think most games, or all, were lost by a goal, things can change in a hurry. No.1 centers, whether Chris Stevenson believes it or not, are not a common commodity. Yes, Duchene is not great in his own end. he won't win the Selke, but he will outscore most , if not all, Selke candidates (other than the disrespected Stone in that regard).

Stone really has not faults to his overall game. Aside from forcing plays from time to time in the middle, he is one of the best wingers in the game. These players do not come around very often either.

They can move money around to make it happen too. Moving Boedker and Smith would easily do it. He can.

But other than ponying up the money, the situation outside of money is beyond the GM's control. Tavares walked away from more money in NYI, I beleive.

Nevermind from a hockey perspective, but from a fan base perspective, this market absolutely needs it . This market needs these two to help the process along.

Now, if I can't get them to sign, then trade them all. What would be the point of trading thes two and signing Dzingel? I would just burn it to the ground, and go long. Brady would probably be your next captain and go from there.

 

[Alex1234]

As a reaction to losing Alfredsson, which didn't attempt to make the team better, but instead to fill a hole left by an outgoing player, and proved to be disastrous.



... Did we?

I was 100% sarcasbonktastik
This management failure is epic

 

[Alf Silfversson]

If i'm a GM and a new owner, I would trade them and build for the future under a real rebuild.

Agree with this.

If you can you sing both. Then strip down all the dead weight and replace it with cheap players (some of who will end up being good). Trade almost anyone who can get you value.

At the deadline and in the offseason you do the following with these players:

Anderson - trade for anything future-related (eg. 3rd round pick)
Smith - trade for pick, buyout or fire into nearest dwarf star
Pajaarvi - trade for 7th
Boedker - trade for 3-6th round pick
Boro - trade for anything you can get
Ceci - trade for anything cheap (eg.prospect or pick)

 

[BonkTastic]

I was 100% sarcasbontastik

... Well played, Alex.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Then you go with all young guys next year. The Sens WOULD bottom out with a team full of rookies. Get a top 5 pick and at least one more first rounder in 2020 and then start adding to a roster that will have Stone, Duchene, White, Batherson, Chlapik, Balcers, Brown, Formenton, Pageau already with some experience up front.

On the backend they will need to add but they'll have a really nice left side in 2-3 years with Chabot, Lajoie and Wolanin. Jaros should be a fixture ojn teh right by then and JBD won't be far away.

In short you can still bottom out with Duchene and Stone in the fold.

 

[The Lewler]

Then you go with all young guys next year. The Sens WOULD bottom out with a team full of rookies. Get a top 5 pick and at least one more first rounder in 2020 and then start adding to a roster that will have Stone, Duchene, White, Batherson, Chlapik, Balcers, Brown, Formenton, Pageau already with some experience up front.

On the backend they will need to add but they'll have a really nice left side in 2-3 years with Chabot, Lajoie and Wolanin. Jaros should be a fixture ojn teh right by then and JBD won't be far away.

In short you can still bottom out with Duchene and Stone in the fold.

Right, but you can't get them to sign with that plan lol.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

The ~ 1300 Drop from 2015/16 to the next season is due to the Phoenix catastrophe and 18-month economic downturn caused by the fallout of a mini-recession centralized within the public service.

The drop in 2017-18 starts in part due to continuing Phoenix mindsets (people being frugal following econimic crisis is common), but kicks into high gear almost immediately after Melnyk's insanely idiotic Heritage Classic outdoor game comments.

The reaction to the city's temporary economic downturn was poor management, and has snowballed at every possiblenturn and doubled-down on absolutely bad decisions.

So yeah. I am suggesting that the drastic end of that attendance downturn - the reaction to a local phenomenon of an economic crisis for part of the fanbase, is absolutely due to awful management and subsequent PR disaster.

Would you also consider the escalating NHL Salary Cap, $69 Million US in 2015-16 to $79.5 Million US for 2018-19, compounded by the Drop in the value of the CDN dollar vs the US dollar, over the same time period, impacting the drop in the franchises' Operating income?

 

[topshelf15]

Then you go with all young guys next year. The Sens WOULD bottom out with a team full of rookies. Get a top 5 pick and at least one more first rounder in 2020 and then start adding to a roster that will have Stone, Duchene, White, Batherson, Chlapik, Balcers, Brown, Formenton, Pageau already with some experience up front.

On the backend they will need to add but they'll have a really nice left side in 2-3 years with Chabot, Lajoie and Wolanin. Jaros should be a fixture ojn teh right by then and JBD won't be far away.

In short you can still bottom out with Duchene and Stone in the fold.

Add Dzingle and we have proven this point ,this season lol

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Add Dzingle and we have proven this point ,this season lol

Exactly. I'd just rather see it with:

1) a top pick coming our way at season's end (eg. 2020)

2) a player like Chlapik learning the game rather than watching Zack Smith take his nightly stupid penalty.

If Chlapik, Batherson and co. start getting acclimated to the NHL I think the turnaround could be pretty quick.

That is if we have an owner who is committed to actually winning...so never mind.

 

[topshelf15]

Exactly. I'd just rather see it with:

1) a top pick coming our way at season's end (eg. 2020)

2) a player like Chlapik learning the game rather than watching Zack Smith take his nightly stupid penalty.

If Chlapik, Batherson and co. start getting acclimated to the NHL I think the turnaround could be pretty quick.

That is if we have an owner who is committed to actually winning...so never mind.

I agree,a good coach and some tweaks and this team could contend for a playoff spot sooner than most would realise...But yep that takes money ,so its on to another rebuild

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Would you also consider the escalating NHL Salary Cap, $69 Million US in 2015-16 to $79.5 Million US for 2018-19, compounded by the Drop in the value of the CDN dollar vs the US dollar, over the same time period, impacting the drop in the franchises' Operating income?

Very possible.

Did the club drastically increase operational budget beginning in 2014, in the wake of the big regional TV deal? I didn't think so.

You can't claim to be tying expenditures to revenues when you only adjust the former when the latter dips and do nothing when revenues rise.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Then you go with all young guys next year. The Sens WOULD bottom out with a team full of rookies. Get a top 5 pick and at least one more first rounder in 2020 and then start adding to a roster that will have Stone, Duchene, White, Batherson, Chlapik, Balcers, Brown, Formenton, Pageau already with some experience up front.

On the backend they will need to add but they'll have a really nice left side in 2-3 years with Chabot, Lajoie and Wolanin. Jaros should be a fixture ojn teh right by then and JBD won't be far away.

In short you can still bottom out with Duchene and Stone in the fold.

Yeah, but Duchene takes 8-10 million of cash out of our finite pool of money to spend.

What do we do when Chabot is asking 7-8 million per season on a 7 or 8 year contract? Do we bridge him like Montreal did with Subban, and then be stuck with him in a position to ask for 11-12 million per season (which is about what Subban got when adjusted for a potential 90 million dollar salary cap 3 years from now).

The result of that will be the same as what happened with Stone. Bridge deal. Arbitration settlement straight to UFA. Probably trade Chabot for pennies on the dollar to a team that will pay him.

Ditto that for Tkachuk, White, Batherson, etc.

There's no point in signing Duchene. None. We can't build on keeping Duchene and Stone if we're only spending near the cap floor because we'll always have to be trading away other key or star players due to approaching our spending limit, and we'll be married to Duchene instead, so the rebuild goes nowhere anyways. We might as well be productive and acquire as many elite talents as possible by finishing near the bottom of the draft for the next 2-3 years so that if a downtown arena changes Melnyk's financial outlook (either through partners or increased revenue) or if Melnyk eventually caves and sells (as there have been quite a few rumours) we're in a position to build something.

I also disagree that tanking will be as effective with Duchene also in the fold. As I stated in a post above, even a few extra points a season makes a huge difference in the kind of player and the draft odds we'll get next season.

 

[West Coast Eagles]

I wouldn't be so sure....

-1 more year of development for our young core guys will hugely improve our team
-There is some randomness and luck to the NHL.
-A new coach with a different system who doesn't play 11-7 might get more out of this current group

I am not saying in any sense that I expect us to be good next year with the above factors, but it has to be understood that the difference between a last place finish, and something like 5th-8th from the bottom while seeming like an equally as big failure on paper is immense when it comes to draft potential. Every draft is different, but typically the drop in quality pick by pick earlier in the draft can be very high. Finishing last gives us the 4th overall pick along with a much higher chance of jumping up to 1, 2, or 3. Where as finishing only a few spots higher might mean instead of 4th overall, we're drafting 7th or 8th overall with a significantly lesser chance at moving up to 1, 2, or 3.

Certainly understand what you are saying and agree on a number of them. However, if we sign both as I proposed it's likely we would shed Dzingel which I think would offset any development from Tkachuk and White. Brown and Batherson could make an immediate impact for sure but I'm doubtful on that, think they will be the kind of players that start slow but progress well, if they even become top 6 forwards in the NHL (I'm not sold on Brown). The main point I agree with is coaching, if that were to change I could certainly see a huge impact but to be honest that could happen with or without Duchene and Stone in my opinion.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Another thing that has to be considered, if we truly cannot spend above a certain amount, and offer sheets actually come back in style this summer, we are a prime target for when Chabot and then Tkachuk become RFAs.

It sounds like crazy man talk because we haven't seen offer sheets in a while, but if Chabot hits the open market as an RFA he could sign a front loaded deal with an 8M+ AAV, and so long as the deal is below five years in length, the team signing him only pays a 1st/2nd/3rd. A player in Chabot's position would sign that, because it would be incredibly lucrative for him to get 8M with front loaded money+signing bonuses while only giving up 1 UFA year, and Eugene Melnyk might not be willing to pay Chabot 11 or 12 million on July 1st of each of the first two years of a contract if he were to match.

That's another risk to signing Duchene. It makes it so we may have to bridge Chabot, Chabot is not going to sign a bridge prior to July 1st, that leaves him open to an offer sheet with low compensation. We need to be very careful here if offer sheets come back into play as has been speculated because we're an incredibly vulnerable team.

 

[BonkTastic]

Would you also consider the escalating NHL Salary Cap, $69 Million US in 2015-16 to $79.5 Million US for 2018-19, compounded by the Drop in the value of the CDN dollar vs the US dollar, over the same time period, impacting the drop in the franchises' Operating income?

Woah woah woah.

FIRST, you said it was due to falling attendance. Now that I added context to those attendance numbers, it's all of a sudden about cap ceilings and the exchange rate?

Why bring up attendance (and low-key blame the fans, I might add) if you're not going to keep insisting it's the fans fault?

So cap and exchange rates are your "plan B" now that you can't blame the fans anymore... What is your Plan C when everyone pokes a hole in Plan B?

Anything to defend Melnyk, eh? It didn't even take 10 minutes for you to change your argument completely.

I'll give you credit for your devout zealotry, at the very least.

 

[West Coast Eagles]

Woah woah woah.

FIRST, you said it was due to falling attendance. Now that I added context to those attendance numbers, it's all of a sudden about cap ceilings and the exchange rate?

Why bring up attendance (and low-key blame the fans, I might add) if you're not going to keep insisting it's the fans fault?

So cap and exchange rates are your "plan B" now that you can't blame the fans anymore... What is your Plan C when everyone pokes a hole in Plan B?

Anything to defend Melnyk, eh? It didn't even take 10 minutes for you to change your argument completely.

I'll give you credit for your devout zealotry, at the very least.

The same old wheel of fortune of arguments. Which one will be next?

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Very possible.

Did the club drastically increase operational budget beginning in 2014, in the wake of the big regional TV deal? I didn't think so.

You can't claim to be tying expenditures to revenues when you only adjust the former when the latter dips and do nothing when revenues rise.

You bring up a good point, and if you look at the Forbes numbers, "revenue" jumped for 83 M in 2013 to 117 M in 2014. Is that the TV deal?

Every year beginning in 2014 "Players Expenses" rose from 55 M, 58 M, 68 M, 73 M to 74 M in 2018.

While every year beginning in 2014 "Operating income" dropped from 22.5 M, 18.5 M, 6.3M, 10 M to 1.6 M in 2018.


So on the surface, as Players Expenses and Revenues both rose, the Operating income has been dropping over the same time period.

That could mean as revenues kept pace with players salaries, there was less money for other operational expenses, such as managerial staff, debt servicing etc

 

[BonkTastic]

I guess you don't see the correlation...

Correlation ≠ causation.

Come on man. This is like Grade 9 logic here. They don't let you graduate high school without going over this.

The dollar was borderline national-crisis-level bad in the Bryden days and people packed the building.

What's Plan C for you in this debate?

 

[Alex1234]

Yeah, but Duchene takes 8-10 million of cash out of our finite pool of money to spend.

What do we do when Chabot is asking 7-8 million per season on a 7 or 8 year contract? Do we bridge him like Montreal did with Subban, and then be stuck with him in a position to ask for 11-12 million per season (which is about what Subban got when adjusted for a potential 90 million dollar salary cap 3 years from now).

The result of that will be the same as what happened with Stone. Bridge deal. Arbitration settlement straight to UFA. Probably trade Chabot for pennies on the dollar to a team that will pay him.

Ditto that for Tkachuk, White, Batherson, etc.

There's no point in signing Duchene. None. We can't build on keeping Duchene and Stone if we're only spending near the cap floor because we'll always have to be trading away other key or star players due to approaching our spending limit, and we'll be married to Duchene instead, so the rebuild goes nowhere anyways. We might as well be productive and acquire as many elite talents as possible by finishing near the bottom of the draft for the next 2-3 years so that if a downtown arena changes Melnyk's financial outlook (either through partners or increased revenue) or if Melnyk eventually caves and sells (as there have been quite a few rumours) we're in a position to build something.

I also disagree that tanking will be as effective with Duchene also in the fold. As I stated in a post above, even a few extra points a season makes a huge difference in the kind of player and the draft odds we'll get next season.

Agree
Burn it to the ground
Draft
wait


Only option

 

[Micklebot]

Would you also consider the escalating NHL Salary Cap, $69 Million US in 2015-16 to $79.5 Million US for 2018-19, compounded by the Drop in the value of the CDN dollar vs the US dollar, over the same time period, impacting the drop in the franchises' Operating income?

2015-16 1 Jul to 30 Jun average exchange rate was .75, the yearly average since has actually been slightly higher

Average	0.792356	NHL FY average
31 Jul 2015	0.779869	0.754677
31 Aug 2015	0.760954
30 Sep 2015	0.754072
31 Oct 2015	0.765173
30 Nov 2015	0.752988
31 Dec 2015	0.73004
31 Jan 2016	0.7054
29 Feb 2016	0.724475
31 Mar 2016	0.755444
30 Apr 2016	0.779029
31 May 2016	0.773476
30 Jun 2016	0.775202
31 Jul 2016	0.767398	0.753776
31 Aug 2016	0.769542
30 Sep 2016	0.763109
31 Oct 2016	0.755159
30 Nov 2016	0.743091
31 Dec 2016	0.749271
31 Jan 2017	0.756946
28 Feb 2017	0.763391
31 Mar 2017	0.746907
30 Apr 2017	0.743892
31 May 2017	0.735591
30 Jun 2017	0.751011
31 Jul 2017	0.787792	0.787697
31 Aug 2017	0.793131
30 Sep 2017	0.813731
31 Oct 2017	0.793371
30 Nov 2017	0.783803
31 Dec 2017	0.783926
31 Jan 2018	0.804258
28 Feb 2018	0.795203
31 Mar 2018	0.773489
30 Apr 2018	0.784693
31 May 2018	0.776886
30 Jun 2018	0.762076
31 Jul 2018	0.761453	0.759946
31 Aug 2018	0.766329
30 Sep 2018	0.767313
31 Oct 2018	0.768035
30 Nov 2018	0.757747
31 Dec 2018	0.743449
31 Jan 2019	0.751806
03 Feb 2019	0.763433

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The rate of exchange tanked a year earlier, in 2014.

Lets, for arguments sake, say the Sens take in on average 100 USD of their yearly revenue in Candian dollars. A difference in a .75 ROE and .85 ROE would mean about a 13 mil USD difference in revenue.

Our regional TV contract, which kicked in for the 2014-15 season, jumped from 125k a game (about 55 a year totaling around 7 mil a year) to 33 mil a year. Roughly an extra 20 mil USD when a .75 ROE is applied.
The NHL's national Canadian deal also kicked in that season, and was reportedly much more lucrative than what CBC had been paying prior.

The ROE hurts, sure, but it was more than made up for by the tv contracts alone.

 

[BonkTastic]

2015-16 1 Jul to 30 Jun average exchange rate was .75, the yearly average since has actually been slightly higher

Average	0.792356	NHL FY average
31 Jul 2015	0.779869	0.754677
31 Aug 2015	0.760954
30 Sep 2015	0.754072
31 Oct 2015	0.765173
30 Nov 2015	0.752988
31 Dec 2015	0.73004
31 Jan 2016	0.7054
29 Feb 2016	0.724475
31 Mar 2016	0.755444
30 Apr 2016	0.779029
31 May 2016	0.773476
30 Jun 2016	0.775202
31 Jul 2016	0.767398	0.753776
31 Aug 2016	0.769542
30 Sep 2016	0.763109
31 Oct 2016	0.755159
30 Nov 2016	0.743091
31 Dec 2016	0.749271
31 Jan 2017	0.756946
28 Feb 2017	0.763391
31 Mar 2017	0.746907
30 Apr 2017	0.743892
31 May 2017	0.735591
30 Jun 2017	0.751011
31 Jul 2017	0.787792	0.787697
31 Aug 2017	0.793131
30 Sep 2017	0.813731
31 Oct 2017	0.793371
30 Nov 2017	0.783803
31 Dec 2017	0.783926
31 Jan 2018	0.804258
28 Feb 2018	0.795203
31 Mar 2018	0.773489
30 Apr 2018	0.784693
31 May 2018	0.776886
30 Jun 2018	0.762076
31 Jul 2018	0.761453	0.759946
31 Aug 2018	0.766329
30 Sep 2018	0.767313
31 Oct 2018	0.768035
30 Nov 2018	0.757747
31 Dec 2018	0.743449
31 Jan 2019	0.751806
03 Feb 2019	0.763433

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The rate of exchange tanked a year earlier, in 2014.

Lets, for arguments sake, say the Sens take in on average 100 USD of their yearly revenue in Candian dollars. A difference in a .75 ROE and .85 ROE would mean about a 13 mil USD difference in revenue.

Our regional TV contract, which kicked in for the 2014-15 season, jumped from 125k a game (about 55 a year totaling around 7 mil a year) to 33 mil a year. Roughly an extra 20 mil USD when a .75 ROE is applied.
The NHL's national Canadian deal also kicked in that season, and was reportedly much more lucrative than what CBC had been paying prior.

The ROE hurts, sure, but it was more than made up for by the tv contracts alone.

Oh man, ugh, that context.

Keep going, I'm so close...

 

[The Lewler]

That was actually really informative and well done , thanks Micklebot.

I really do have to question how many times we have to go over the exact same ground however. Revenue vs profits, how the Sens corp is structured, exchange rates, TV deals etc. There is no new info under the sun here.

My inclination to this entire thread is its a fool choice. You have no power as the GM here, you can't sign both even if you want to, and we have no indication they want to stay.

So.. sure I would impotently try to sign both.

 

[SensFactor]

In my mind they are both already signed.