Would you protect Soucy or Dumba?

[larueskee]

This would be a easy answer if it applied to just one year. Many of the Dumba supporters would argue all of things they see with their eyes on Dumba. I see them too. Speed, offensive awareness. I get it. Truth of the matter is Dumba shouldn't be getting the minutes or accolades he gets. The statistics are fairly easy to read. Soucy out points, out pluses, and does it all playing far fewer minutes. If you would look at the players net plus per minute average, Dumba would be put to shame by nearly every defensemen on the Wild roster. You probably aren't aware of the stat but its a real attention grabber when I point it out.

 

[Dee Oh Cee]

Huh? Plus/minus arguments in the year 2021? Why, I never...

 

[TaLoN]

Huh? Plus/minus arguments in the year 2021? Why, I never...

Guess Soucy is also better than Ryan Suter too...

With Soucy being so good, why are we burying him on the bottom pair with limited time against weak competition?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

You don't "shelter" a d-pair by playing them with your matchup line. Eriksson Ek's line is actually the line that Soucy and Cole have been paired with the least.

It is funny that all the Dumba bashers don't seem to remember that Spurgeon was supposed to be on the shutdown pair with Brodin but Dumba had to take over because the leader couldn't keep up.

Interesting to dig into the numbers a bit. 5v5 TOI with Greenway, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov and Fiala:

Dumba
Greenway: 273:30
Eriksson Ek: 269:45
Kaprizov: 269:45
Fiala: 211:30

Spurgeon
Greenway: 260:00
Eriksson Ek: 263:30
Kaprizov: 270:30
Fiala: 213:15

Both with pretty similar times with our "offensive" and our "matchup" forwards.

 

[HotDish]

This would be a easy answer if it applied to just one year. Many of the Dumba supporters would argue all of things they see with their eyes on Dumba. I see them too. Speed, offensive awareness. I get it. Truth of the matter is Dumba shouldn't be getting the minutes or accolades he gets. The statistics are fairly easy to read. Soucy out points, out pluses, and does it all playing far fewer minutes. If you would look at the players net plus per minute average, Dumba would be put to shame by nearly every defensemen on the Wild roster. You probably aren't aware of the stat but its a real attention grabber when I point it out.

Dumba's expected +/-

Soucy's expected +/-

Is it me or does Soucy not seem to be blowing Dumba out of the water and putting him to shame?

 

[2Pair]

Interesting to dig into the numbers a bit. 5v5 TOI with Greenway, Eriksson Ek, Kaprizov and Fiala:

Dumba
Greenway: 273:30
Eriksson Ek: 269:45
Kaprizov: 269:45
Fiala: 211:30

Spurgeon
Greenway: 260:00
Eriksson Ek: 263:30
Kaprizov: 270:30
Fiala: 213:15

Both with pretty similar times with our "offensive" and our "matchup" forwards.

Yeah, Soucy and Cole have similar splits with all 4 lines as well. They don't chase matchups real hard with the defenseman

 

[Minnewildsota]

Dumba's expected +/- View attachment 433813

Soucy's expected +/-View attachment 433814

Is it me or does Soucy not seem to be blowing Dumba out of the water and putting him to shame?

I don’t recall anybody saying Soucy is blowing Dumba out of the water. The argument is that Soucy is providing similar stats for like 1/2 the cost.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, Soucy and Cole have similar splits with all 4 lines as well. They don't chase matchups real hard with the defenseman

Maybe could be more enlightening home vs. road but NST doesn’t go that far, as far as I’m seeing.

 

[Webster]

So I guess Parise said no to waive, and that's why they treat him like crap.

I'd say Dumba is overrated anyway, no big loss. Too many turnovers and stupid stuff, penalties. Seattle may not even want him.

 

[Bazeek]

I don’t recall anybody saying Soucy is blowing Dumba out of the water. The argument is that Soucy is providing similar stats for like 1/2 the cost.

Similar counting stats, but Soucy's also got the highest PDO on the team while Dumba's got about the lowest:

Soucy
On-ice SH% - 14.4
On-ice SV% - 94.4
PDO - 108.8

Dumba
On-ice SH% - 10.9
On-ice SV% - 89.4
PDO - 100.4

So it's hard not to think that Soucy's getting a little lucky here. Which isn't to cut him down or anything; I love Soucy. But racking up assists while your teammates are shooting at 14% is a little sketchy.

 

[HotDish]

So I guess Parise said no to waive, and that's why they treat him like crap.

I'd say Dumba is overrated anyway, no big loss. Too many turnovers and stupid stuff, penalties. Seattle may not even want him.

 

[2Pair]

So I guess Parise said no to waive, and that's why they treat him like crap.

I'd say Dumba is overrated anyway, no big loss. Too many turnovers and stupid stuff, penalties. Seattle may not even want him.

They're not treating Parise like crap They're treating him like a 13th forward.

 

[Webster]

They're not treating Parise like crap They're treating him like a 13th forward.

I'm not so sure his teammates agree with you.

And that's actually a concern when it comes to the playoffs, I believe it's a disturbing factor in the locker room...

 

[2Pair]

I'm not so sure his teammates agree with you.

And that's actually a concern when it comes to the playoffs, I believe it's a disturbing factor in the locker room...

Parise is/was the distraction in the locker room. I'm guessing most of the team is just fine with him being put in his place.

 

[MNNumbers]

Why are we talking about Parise in the Soucy/Dumba thread?

 

[HotDish]

Why are we talking about Parise in the Soucy/Dumba thread?

Post #59

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So I guess Parise said no to waive, and that's why they treat him like crap.

I'd say Dumba is overrated anyway, no big loss. Too many turnovers and stupid stuff, penalties. Seattle may not even want him.

He has already waived.

 

[larueskee]

Dumba's expected +/- View attachment 433813

Soucy's expected +/-View attachment 433814

Is it me or does Soucy not seem to be blowing Dumba out of the water and putting him to shame?

I have no idea what you posted. Its just something with numbers on it no ones name either. Lets do the math on my formula for the this past year of Dumba and Soucy. Dumba had 21 points, a plus of 1, and 5 powerplay points in 1130.67 minutes of ice time. My projected plus per minute for Dumba is 0.015. Soucy had 17 points, plus 22, and zero powerplay points in only 758.5 for a net of plus 39. My projected plus per minute for Soucy is 0.514. If you were to multiply Soucy's projected plus per minute rate by the ice time Dumba had. It would translate into a net plus of 58 ( which would be way more goals for than against than Dumbas net of 17. So why give Dumba all of this ice time? Teams are rarely scoring when Soucy and Cole are on the ice and yet the Wild are still scoring with them on the ice.

 

[2Pair]

I have no idea what you posted. Its just something with numbers on it no ones name either. Lets do the math on my formula for the this past year of Dumba and Soucy. Dumba had 21 points, a plus of 1, and 5 powerplay points in 1130.67 minutes of ice time. My projected plus per minute for Dumba is 0.015. Soucy had 17 points, plus 22, and zero powerplay points in only 758.5 for a net of plus 39. My projected plus per minute for Soucy is 0.514. If you were to multiply Soucy's projected plus per minute rate by the ice time Dumba had. It would translate into a net plus of 58 ( which would be way more goals for than against than Dumbas net of 17. So why give Dumba all of this ice time? Teams are rarely scoring when Soucy and Cole are on the ice and yet the Wild are still scoring with them on the ice.

Seems to be a lot of that going around

Did you really just try to use a "formula" that multiplies +/- ?

 

[MNNumbers]

He has already waived.

Really? Link, please. This would be good news.

 

[larueskee]

Dumba's expected +/- View attachment 433813

Soucy's expected +/-View attachment 433814

Is it me or does Soucy not seem to be blowing Dumba out of the water and putting him to shame?

Your numbers do not elaborate on anything. My math is very much like Bill James in that it takes what is happening right now and projecting outward. Of course there are many variables but this is happening and has happened most all of this season. I would bet it is much more vivid the last two months though but the math is there to run the formula

 

[larueskee]

Seems to be a lot of that going around

Did you really just try to use a "formula" that multiplies +/- ?

Umm you do realize that plus minus has a direct correlation with goal differential?

 

[Bazeek]

I have no idea what you posted. Its just something with numbers on it no ones name either. Lets do the math on my formula for the this past year of Dumba and Soucy. Dumba had 21 points, a plus of 1, and 5 powerplay points in 1130.67 minutes of ice time. My projected plus per minute for Dumba is 0.015. Soucy had 17 points, plus 22, and zero powerplay points in only 758.5 for a net of plus 39. My projected plus per minute for Soucy is 0.514. If you were to multiply Soucy's projected plus per minute rate by the ice time Dumba had. It would translate into a net plus of 58 ( which would be way more goals for than against than Dumbas net of 17. So why give Dumba all of this ice time? Teams are rarely scoring when Soucy and Cole are on the ice and yet the Wild are still scoring with them on the ice.

Like I mentioned earlier, for whatever reason Soucy's gotten pretty lucky this year in terms of his goalies and his teammates' shooting percentages. Those things haven't been as much of a factor for Dumba.

I guess the one possible counterargument there would be that Soucy contributes to the goalies making more saves by playing better defense, which isn't unreasonable. But if that was the case I'd expect it to show up in the shot-quality metrics, and they really don't.

Shots against per 60
Dumba: 28.75
Soucy: 29.77

Scoring chances against per 60
Dumba: 23.42
Soucy: 24.17

High-danger chances against per 60
Dumba: 8.30
Soucy: 7.74

Expected goals against per 60
Dumba: 2.07
Soucy: 2.08

Source

There are some differences, but they're not wide and (if you put much stock in expected goals) they end up canceling each other out. So it seems like the +/- thing has more to do with the goalies than Dumba and Soucy themselves.

There's more of a gap when you look at the offensive side of things:

Shots for per 60
Dumba: 27.2
Soucy: 25.98

Scoring chances for per 60
Dumba: 23.49
Soucy: 20.56

High-danger chances for per 60
Dumba: 10.73
Soucy: 9.03

Expected goals for per 60
Dumba: 2.35
Soucy: 1.99

So the team generates more offensive pressure with Dumba on the ice, and their point totals being so close appears to mostly come down to luck. Even the quality of linemates and competition don't seem to make much of a difference based on what Dr Jan Itor posted earlier. The pairings get pretty even time with everyone and against everyone.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Really? Link, please. This would be good news.

Last year for the Islanders.

Just saying it’s not a zero percent chance.

 

[2Pair]

Umm you do realize that plus minus has a direct correlation with goal differential?

Yes. Just like I realize that a player that plays 20 minutes in a game while being +2 had a much better game than the guy that played 5 minutes and was +1. Your formula says the 2nd guy was twice as good as the 1st. In other words, your formula doesn't work.