With the average of 25% of 1st making the NHL

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by rockinghockey, Mar 5, 2011.

  1. rockinghockey

    rockinghockey Registered User

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    With only 25% of 1st rounders making it to the NHL who do you think they will be from the 2011 draft.


    Lets just say about 10 players that will have some what of an impact in the NHL.
     
  2. Devils Trap

    Devils Trap Cory's Better

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    Larsson
    Courturier
    Landeskog
    RNH
    Strome
    Hamilton
    Murphy

    Top 7 projected
     
  3. zorz

    zorz Registered User

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    There is pretty good chance somebody of them will be bust.
     
  4. HockeyThoughts

    HockeyThoughts Delivering The Truth

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    Is that even a real statistic? I find it hard to believe that only 7 out of 30 of the best prospects at their age manage to make the NHL. I could understand if you said "came close to hitting their potential" but I'm relatively sure more of them make the NHL in some capacity..

    By my count:
    1997: 23/26
    1998: 26/27
    1999: 25/28
    2000: 29/30
    2001: 27/30
    2002: 26/30
    2003: 30/30
    2004: 28/30
    2005: 26/30
    2006: 26/30
     
  5. Ishdul

    Ishdul Registered User

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    Yes, but the top 7 choices are (roughly) the top 7 most likely draftees to make the NHL.

    25% seems absurdly low. 2004 was a mostly crappy draft but well over 50% are going to play enough games to say that they "made the NHL". Even 1999 and 1996 are over 25%.
     
  6. Jwm1986

    Jwm1986 Registered User

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    Yeah, id like to know where your getting this statistic also....It doesnt seem right....
     
  7. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    Maybe there is a significant number of games(say at least 200) = making it
     
  8. Ishdul

    Ishdul Registered User

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    Going by 200 games, 14 of 26 first rounders in 1996 and 13 of 28 first rounders in 1999 would qualify. And all but 3 of 30 draftees in 2003 will qualify.
     
  9. RCGP

    RCGP Go Panthers

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    maybe he meant for next season
     
  10. Qvist

    Qvist Registered User

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    Far more than 25% of firstrounders make the NHL. I did an in-depth look at the 96-2000 drafts a while back ( See post #42 here: http://www.canuckscentral.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=9638&hl=qvist&st=30 ), and found that roughly 70% of the top 10 picks made it, roughly 40% of the below-10th 1RPs. That however included everybody who achieved some sort of significant NHL career, including in very marginal roles. But the data also allows you to separate by impact if you want to. Take into account though that the number of drafts this builds on is on the low side (just five), and that it also includes arguably the two worst 1st rounds in living memory (96 and 99).

    Incidentally, the percentages were .25 for 2nd round picks, .18 for third round selections and .09 for lower round selections.

    A different approach can be found here: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=663173

    This covers a much longer period (1990-2004), and has a less detailed (and hence less debatable) qualitative classification. According to this, about 60% of players drafted 1st through 15th overall and ~35% of players drafted 16-30 became average or better players in the NHL.

    Which boils down to about half of the 1RPs in an average draft having a significant impact in the NHL.

    I don't have any ready figures to illustrate it, but it is also clear that probabilities of impact are radically higher in the top 3 to 5, and then tail off rather steeply.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2011
  11. Riggins

    Riggins Registered User

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    Scott Cullen did an analysis of this from 1995 to 2004 and used 100 games as the measure. As it turned out, in those years better picks came from 21-25 than from 11-20. Here's the article:

    http://www.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?id=267960

    Picks 1-5: 96% played 100 games
    6-10: 74%
    11-15: 54%
    16-20: 62%
    21-25: 72%

    Now 100 games is hardly a measure of success, but it at least gives an idea. A 2nd rounder had a 25-30% chance of playing 100+ games.
     
  12. Nalens Oga

    Nalens Oga Registered User

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    Games played is a fine measure, and the NHL has gotten younger so the 25% stat is really off.
     
  13. Qvist

    Qvist Registered User

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    Well remembered, these are really interesting figures. Not least the improvement in the figures from 11 to 25. That suggests a number of highly interesting things about drafting decisions....

    Pretty much every draft runs out of really top prospects somewhere between 5 and 10. Hence, from the 11-15 group and down, you're regularly dealing with weighting different kinds of risks against each other.

    What these findings suggest reflect is that NHL teams are not getting that exercise right - something is causing certain players to be overvalued and drafted too high and others to be undervalued and drafted too low - on such a scale that it systematically distorts the results. The obvious suspect in this regard seems to me to be size - big project players getting drafted too high, highly skilled prospects lacking size falling too low. In a word: Excessive emphasis placed on size.

    Note also that not only are the figures out of joint in terms of probability, but also in terms of average quality: The 21-25 group weren't just more likely to make it, they also on average became better players than those in the 11-15 group - which means that the latter can't even be seen as "high-risk, high reward" - they have higher risk and lower reward.

    But this was the old NHL of course. It'll be interesting to see if these trends hold up post-lockout. I suspect that size still gets overemphasised relative to its actual impact (which is now less than pre-lockout). Plus, you now have the infamous "russian factor" to further irrationally skew drafting decisions.
     
  14. rockinghockey

    rockinghockey Registered User

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    When I am talking 1st round draft picks I am not saying they play 100 games, I am saying that they have an impact with a team that they are drafted from. When you are talking 1st round draft picks you are hoping that they will either be top 6 fowards or top 4 dmen.

    It was Bob McKenzie when he was being interviewed from the talk show in Edm that said about 25% of the 1st round draft picks actually make an impact in the NHL.

    Cogliano was a 1st did he make an impact- no
    Brule was a 1st did he make an impact- no

    I am not talking about playing in the NHL I am talking about making an impact.

    I was wondering who would be the 10 players from the 1st round that would make an impact?
     
  15. chrisralph007

    chrisralph007 Registered User

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    Thanks Spacegoat - was just going to look for this article & post it. You saved me the work!
     
  16. Riggins

    Riggins Registered User

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    Definitely an interesting article and it pulls me away from that HF-induced tendency to value draft picks above all else. It really made no difference to pick 11th or 25th in those years. Actually, better players were found in the low 20's and I think Qvist has the main reason pegged, too much emphasis on size.
     
  17. The Vinstar

    The Vinstar Registered User

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    Khohlachev, Namestnikov, Mcneil, Musil and yes, Grimaldi.

    Thats outside of the top 7 consensus because as most of them are likely to make it no point in listing them.
     
  18. Qvist

    Qvist Registered User

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    It's still an advantage to pick 11th rather than 25th though! If you assume you're doing it right and achieve a better rating of your draft candidates, it's a greater probability that the guy you want is still there at 11 than at 25. The figures reflect on poor choices made by clubds, not on what you can do at 11 compared to 25.
     
  19. voxel

    voxel Knights and Jets Bandwagon

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    IMO Size and "flash" - maybe not enough emphasis on character.
     
  20. JSilvius*

    JSilvius* Guest

    Gonna throw Puempel's name in here. I think he'll be an all-star and a great pick for whoever grabs him in the late first round (a team in the teens will grab him if they're smart).
     
  21. R S

    R S @avs_tweets

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    He won't last til the "late first".

    If I was picking 8-15, I would grab him for sure.
     
  22. Garyboy

    Garyboy Registered User

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    Should have read 25% of first rounders that will have a significant impact.

    Your opening post is worded incorrectly. Thus the confusion.
     
  23. Qvist

    Qvist Registered User

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    Rockingboy:

    You don't think it might be useful to define "make an impact"?

    If I may refer back to my earlier link (the one analysing all 1st rounds 1990-2004), the percentage fits pretty well with tyhe group of players I classed as "High-impact players", which I defined thusly:

    These are typically either stars, or at the very least players who are solid top 3 defensemen-calibre on an average team, or regular top two liners who could be relied on for at least 60 points during a considerable number of seasons, or good starting goalies.

    35-40% of the players drafted 1 through 15 achieved this rating, and 15-20% of the players drafted 16-30. This leaves you more or less with the percentage mentioned by McKenzie for the 1st round as a whole, so that definition is probably useful to the question you pose.

    That is however a very high threshold for "significant impact". There are lots of players below that level who have really good NHL careers and who would be considered highly successful selections with a late first-round pick.
     
  24. I don't believe that only 25% make it to the NHL. Look at 2009

    Tavares, Hedman, Kane, Duchene, Paajarvi, Johansson, Leddy, Kulikov have already made it.

    That's already 26%.

    Brayden Schenn, Kyle Palmieri, Nazem Kadri, OEL have already played in a few NHL games, and have a great shot at being full time NHL'ers.

    De Haan, Ellis, Glennie, Cowen, Kreider, Kassian, Moore, Despres, etc. etc. also have a decent shot at making it.
     
  25. Qvist

    Qvist Registered User

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    Read above. More than half of 1st round picks become average or better NHL players, and considerably more than that play at least 100 games.
     

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