TL;DR version: Fans like short, easy blurbs from mainstream scouting. And that blurb hype sways persuasion far easier than lengthy deep dives. Guenther was bestowed to get very good blurbs and McTavish... not so much, but both played similar amount of games in 2021. Fans are far easier to accept Guenther over Eklund than McTavish over Eklund. It's much easier to have cognitive dissonance in order to hate a pick rather than to understand the pick once selected.
Epic version:
This is how many scouting media feel, especially ones that didn't watch McTavish in the NL-B. (
This response is a general response, not directly at you.) They were all relying on their 2019-20 scouting report, which is why they all cite "big NHL shot" and "needs to improve skating". Just using common sense, McTavish playing on a bigger ice surface against bigger, faster men and producing at a very high rate would imply that his skating has improved. Yet, when I did my deep dive, I found that those scouts who watched McTavish this year vs those who didn't have opposite views of McTavish's skating. I mean there are those who are stuck using 2019-20 footage vs those who witnessed McTavish's 2021 season, albeit short, but more than enough to easily evaluate his skating has improved.
I get that having a bigger sample makes for a more concrete evaluation, but COVID screwed that up for several prospects. This is where a deep dive is required along with nuances. For me, it was McTavish's growth that made me understand why Central Scouting had him #2 overall. It wasn't just one publication saying that McTavish had a humongous jump in development, but several sites. For example, FC Hockey cites all these vast improvements and gives many praises, but their projection had McTavish as a 3C with an upside of 2C. That eval didn't make any sense until you factor in two things: 1) sample size and 2) bias (
probably didn't watch his NL-B play).
McTavish v Guenther
FC Hockey's final rankings had McTavish 10th and Guenther 6th overall. Guenther's EP consolidated ranking is 6th overall.
2019-20 Comparison
| 2019-20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| . | League | Games | G | A | Pts | . | PPG | PPA | PP Pts | . | ES G | ES A | ES Pts |
| Guenther | WHL | 58 | 26 | 33 | 59 | | 8 | 9 | 17 | | 18 | 24 | 42 |
| McTavish | OHL | 57 | 29 | 13 | 42 | | 5 | 4 | 9 | | 24 | 9 | 33 |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
This draft year, all we heard about was Guenther being the best sniper and goal scorer. When we look at their D-1 year, McTavish was the better goal scorer. In fact, he the better ES goal scorer. Guenther has loads of assists. That would imply that McTavish has tunnel vision with the puck in the offense and Guenther a more well-rounded offensive player.
| 2021 | | | | | | | |
| . | League | Season | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG |
| Guenther | AJHL | Regular | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1.25 |
| WHL | Regular | 12 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 2.00 |
| . | | | | | | | |
| McTavish | NL-B | Regular | 13 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 0.85 |
| NL-B | Playoffs | 4 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1.75 |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
Guenther has the similar games played, but his stock is a firmly established top-5/10 talent by the mass media. Recall, so many media had Guenther going to the Ducks at #3, along with Eklund and Hughes. No one is questioning Guenther's game to be a top-5 selection with the mainstream media. Yet, there was only one scouting report that was skeptical of Guenther because his WHL performance was not consistent with the production at the AJHL and WJC-18's. One had to scour the web to find that tidbit. A couple of reasons for Guenther's WHL's great outing is due to playing with high end prospects and the set five team rotation was a very weak group. Guenther plays for Edmonton.
| WHL | Central | Division | 2021 | | | | | | | |
| Team | GP | W | L | OTL | Pts | PCT | . | GF | GA | Diff |
| Edmonton | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 0.891 | | 104 | 41 | 63 |
| Medicine Hat | 23 | 14 | 8 | 1 | 29 | 0.63 | | 87 | 69 | 18 |
| Calgary | 21 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 23 | 0.548 | | 72 | 79 | -7 |
| Lethbridge | 24 | 9 | 12 | 3 | 21 | 0.438 | | 81 | 108 | -27 |
| Red Deer | 23 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 12 | 0.261 | | 59 | 106 | -47 |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
What's odd here is that McTavish was playing in a men's league and so many mainstream scouting do not give enough credit of playing in a men's league. I've shared often the excel comp between McTavish and Othmann as an apples to apples comparison that shows a difference in production. Then we recently get an on-ice reporting sharing the difference exists. McTavish scores 9 goals in 13 games against men and Guenther scores 12 goals in 12 games against his peers. That weight of playing against men should be a factor, but it's not with the mainstream scout rankings.
| 2021 | | | | | | | |
| League | Team | Games | G | A | Pts | PPG |
| Guenther | WJC-18 | Canada | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.00 |
| McTavish | WJC-18 | Canada | 7 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 1.57 |
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]
Why did Guenther's production drop from his WHL performance while playing on a top line with 2022 top-3 projected C Wright and 2021 16th overall Othmann? McTavish was tied for the third best scorer on the team and third best goal scorer (the top-2 were Wright and 2023 Bedard). Guenther finished the WJC-18 as its seventh best scorer and fourth best goal scorer. Remember, Guenther has been labeled an elite goal scorer. Finally playing against his peers, McTavish was able to showcase all the ways he's improved while playing center. Still, his performance by the mass scouting still got...
Mason credits his time in the NL-B for his performance at the WJC-18, citing the NL-B plays faster and are stronger. Cognitive dissonance is given berth when playing in a men's league is third rate, especially from Duck fans because Lindholm was drafted 6th overall by playing in a men's league not called the SHL.
With similarly games played between Guenther and McTavish in 2021, the prospect ranking and hype of the two are vastly different. Guenther's stock has remained relatively high all a long. McTavish's stock only rose in July, over a month after Central Scouting put out he's the #2 NA skater on May 27, which makes absolutely no sense!
The draft is and will always be a gamble. A lot has to do with loads of scouting and luck in position as well as who might fall. I won't tell you that McTavish will be great. I'm just saying maybe McTavish wasn't presented very well to the masses, especially when we compare McTavish to Guenther. And then there was a huge hype for Othmann rising, but McTavish clearly outplayed and outproduced him at every level this year. I was confused by the hype Othmann was receiving versus the skepticism that McTavish could be a top-10 pick. Othmann was selected 16th, but many scouts and fans didn't see McTavish as a top-10 or fringe top-10 pick. Once McTavish was selected 3rd overall, the majority hated the pick. If it were Guenther selected 3rd overall, there wouldn't much of an outrage as he's been presented by many mainstream media to be the pick. (
I would have been upset because I value Eklund far more than Guenther.)
A lack of positive exposure for McTavish is why so many people don't like the pick for the Ducks or even the feasibility of possibly being the pick. The latter was on full display on this message board often. Poster can praise Eklund, Beniers, Hughes, Edvinsson, Guenther, and Clarke, but don't talk about McTavish. McTavish wasn't worthy of consideration at #3 overall by the majority on this board. Heh, despite me doing all the leg work in sharing of several deep dives, the majority just didn't care and were surprised at how McTavish became the pick. Some are still in disbelief.
