Speculation: With Marner @ 10.89 whats your guesses on the rest of the big RFA's?

[WetcoastOrca]

Ah yes, Matthews was definitely better than Malkin, just look at their resumes at the time of signing!

Matthews:
Career high 69pts
Career high 22nd pts/game
Career high 40g
Career high 3rd G/game
One good playoff series
One awful playoff series
0 NHL series wins
Calder

Malkin:
Career high 106pt (2nd in NHL)
Career high 3rd Pts/game
Career high 47G
Career high 4th G/game
One average playoff series
One great playoff run
Cup Finals appearance
Calder
Hart Trophy candidate (2nd place)


I mean, it’s so obvious that Matthews was better!!

Great post! But you’re wasting your breath arguing with that one.

 

[Sky04]

Ah yes, Matthews was definitely better than Malkin, just look at their resumes at the time of signing!

Matthews:
Career high 69pts
Career high 22nd pts/game
Career high 40g
Career high 3rd G/game
One good playoff series
One awful playoff series
0 NHL series wins
Calder

Malkin:
Career high 106pt (2nd in NHL)
Career high 3rd Pts/game
Career high 47G
Career high 4th G/game
One average playoff series
One great playoff run
Cup Finals appearance
Calder
Hart Trophy candidate (2nd place)


I mean, it’s so obvious that Matthews was better!!

Hey, he didn't say better he said comparable. Kind of like how 70 points is kind of comparable to 100.

 

[Beyonder91]

Hey, he didn't say better he said comparable. Kind of like how 70 points is kind of comparable to 100.

He said Matthews was a better player.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews was coming off a rookie year with 69 Pts and a 2nd year with 63 (yes I know 62 games) but Malkin had 106 in 82. He had 132 points his first 2 years, Malkin had 191. Oh but yes Matthews is the best goal scorer since well the beginning of time. He had 74G his first 2 years. Malkin only had 80.

Poor Matthews can't even break 75 points

Matthews:
Career high 69pts
Career high 22nd pts/game
Career high 40g
Career high 3rd G/game

Malkin:
Career high 106pt (2nd in NHL)
Career high 3rd Pts/game
Career high 47G
Career high 4th G/game

These posts show that people still have a complete lack of understanding of how much PP time/opportunities affect raw production.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'm amazed you can say with a straight face that Matthews was better.

ES Points/GP:

Matthews: 0.73
Malkin: 0.69

ES Goals/GP:

Matthews: 0.42
Malkin: 0.29

PP Points/60:

Matthews: 6.47
Malkin: 5.57

PP Goals/60:

Matthews: 2.95
Malkin: 2.30

PP time is an amazing thing. The NHL pumped a ton of it into their young stars coming out of the lockout.

Other people have also mentioned the difference in cap growth as well.

I mean, the mentions of cap growth are kind of ridiculous, since the cap had just gone up 4.5m the previous year, and projections had the cap up 3.5m this year, which it would have been without the NHLPA deciding in June to use the lowest cap escalator ever in the history of the cap. Not to mention that everybody knows we are on the verge of a substantial cap increase, which is why RFAs are fine with signing 3-year deals. The cap will probably increase more in the next 5 years than it did during Malkin's 5 year contract.

 

[MadLuke]

Malkin is the best comparable, and Matthews was a better player and has a smaller cap hit percentage at equal term.

I get why people have skewed perception because of the insane McDavid contract and massive PP differences across eras, but Matthews' contract is not bad.

Malkin 20-21 year's old season versus Matthews 20-21 season

Malkin
#6 in goals
#6 in points
#9 in ppg with 1.19

Matthews
#12 in goals
#41 in points
#22 in ppg

Considering those 2 season included is rookie season for Malkin and is jump from the first and second that is quite the statement.

 

[nturn06]

If you are going to make accusations, you should have proof behind it.

I have no idea where the arxiv for last year posts is, if anyone shows where it is I'll show you 10+ such posts... I know because I argued with those people.

 

[Dekes For Days]

goals
points
ppg

See above.

 

[Beyonder91]

ES Points/GP:

Matthews: 0.73
Malkin: 0.69

ES Goals/GP:

Matthews: 0.42
Malkin: 0.29

PP Points/60:

Matthews: 6.47
Malkin: 5.57

PP Goals/60:

Matthews: 2.95
Malkin: 2.30

PP time is an amazing thing. The NHL pumped a ton of it into their young stars coming out of the lockout.


I mean, the mentions of cap growth are kind of ridiculous, since the cap had just gone up 4.5m the previous year, and projections had the cap up 3.5m this year, which it would have been without the NHLPA deciding in June to use the lowest cap escalator ever in the history of the cap. Not to mention that everybody knows we are on the verge of a substantial cap increase, which is why RFAs are fine with signing 3-year deals. The cap will probably increase more in the next 5 years than it did during Malkin's 5 year contract.

You are comparing their numbers in the year they signed? Their total numbers up until the time they signed?
Are you taking into account performance relative to peers?
You can't just throw numbers out with no context.
Also, I agree that using relative numbers (production rates) is important but you also can't completely discount absolute numbers. Malkin did finish 2nd in scoring in his 2nd year. You can't just dismiss that. Also the fact that Malkin did his numbers over more games is material as well as the fact he helped get his team to the Stanley Cup finals. Not to mention Malkin stayed healthier at the time of his signing.
Anyways, please provide where your numbers are coming from exactly.
Also, you had to go back over 10 years (to the early days of the salary cap) to find any sort of a comparable which is saying something about Matthews contract.

 

[nbwingsfan]

These posts show that people still have a complete lack of understanding of how much PP time/opportunities affect raw production.

PP time affect Hart trophy candidacy and cup finals appearances? Weird how this still only affects Matthews and not any other stars.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Mathews can only think about being better than Malkin when he helps his team win a cup. Hes got a long way to go. Man people wonder why leafs fans get crap here.

 

[CanadienShark]

ES Points/GP:

Matthews: 0.73
Malkin: 0.69

ES Goals/GP:

Matthews: 0.42
Malkin: 0.29

PP Points/60:

Matthews: 6.47
Malkin: 5.57

PP Goals/60:

Matthews: 2.95
Malkin: 2.30

PP time is an amazing thing. The NHL pumped a ton of it into their young stars coming out of the lockout.


I mean, the mentions of cap growth are kind of ridiculous, since the cap had just gone up 4.5m the previous year, and projections had the cap up 3.5m this year, which it would have been without the NHLPA deciding in June to use the lowest cap escalator ever in the history of the cap. Not to mention that everybody knows we are on the verge of a substantial cap increase, which is why RFAs are fine with signing 3-year deals. The cap will probably increase more in the next 5 years than it did during Malkin's 5 year contract.

Why are you going from ES points per game to PP points per 60? Because those are the only numbers to fit your narrative?

 

[Sky04]

These posts show that people still have a complete lack of understanding of how much PP time/opportunities affect raw production.

Or Matthews doesn't post better numbers because he's not good enough henceforth, significantly overpaid.

 

[FerrisRox]

These all make Mathews and Marner's deal look horrible

They looked bad the moment they were signed. Kyle Dubas has proven, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he shouldn't be out in the deep end without his water wings because he's clearly not ready to swim with the big boys.

 

[FerrisRox]

Oh no they thought they couldn't hence all the offer sheet speculation.

Marner *did* receive offer sheets so I'm not sure what point you think you are making here.

 

[FerrisRox]

Every year for contending teams will be hard, Chicago had a problem, Pitt had a problem, the Kings had a problem granted all 3 teams won a cup or cups. welcome to the cap era. This year was supposed to be the hard part remember.

You're calling the Leafs a "contending team" despite no evidence of them contending then name checking a series of teams that won Stanley Cups.

Yes it gets difficult to keep your core together after Cup wins because players have earned large raises.

Where it gets a little odd is when those raises are handed out before they players have achieved any kind of post season success at all.

You shouldn't have a Stanley Cup hangover without winning a Stanley Cup.

 

[MadLuke]

See above.

Yes ? Malkin was
Malkin
#6 in goals
#6 in points
#9 in ppg with 1.19

Against players that played in a league with similar level of PPO

Matthews
#12 in goals
#41 in points
#22 in ppg

Same for Matthews he was playing against peers that played in a league with a similar level of PPO no ?

 

[Dekes For Days]

You are comparing their numbers in the year they signed? Their total numbers up until the time they signed?

Total numbers up until they signed their post-ELC contract.

Are you taking into account performance relative to peers? You can't just throw numbers out with no context.

When you adjust for ES scoring rates of the era:

ES Points/GP

Malkin: 0.73
Matthews: 0.67

ES Goals/GP:

Matthews: 0.39
Malkin: 0.31

Malkin pulls ahead in overall ES production, while still being far behind in goal-scoring. When you consider the linemates that Matthews has had (even aside from other linemates, Malkin did spend a not insignificant amount of time with Crosby), his primary point production, his superior goal-scoring ability, his superior PP production, all at a younger age, I don't know how you come to the conclusion that Malkin was better.

Also the fact that Malkin did his numbers over more games is material

The sample size for Matthews was bigger than it was for Malkin.

Also, you had to go back over 10 years (to the early days of the salary cap) to find any sort of a comparable which is saying something about Matthews contract.

No, it says something about Matthews the player, and how badly people are at evaluating contracts. We didn't have a talent like this enter the league for a long time.

Even when adjusted for era, Matthews is the 5th best ES producer at time of signing his post-ELC contract in the entire cap era, behind McDavid, Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin, while being one of the best PP producers and the best goal-scorer.

 

[Dekes For Days]

PP time affect Hart trophy candidacy?

Yes, significantly.

and cup finals appearances?

That is a team accomplishment.

Weird how this still only affects Matthews and not any other stars.

It affects tons of stars to varying degrees, and in direct comparison to stars during the post-lockout time period, it is equally important to consider.

In terms of current players, Matthews has had among the least PP time of any of his peers over the last couple years, so the effect on his raw production is significant.

 

[Legion34]

You are comparing their numbers in the year they signed? Their total numbers up until the time they signed?
Are you taking into account performance relative to peers?
You can't just throw numbers out with no context.
Also, I agree that using relative numbers (production rates) is important but you also can't completely discount absolute numbers. Malkin did finish 2nd in scoring in his 2nd year. You can't just dismiss that. Also the fact that Malkin did his numbers over more games is material as well as the fact he helped get his team to the Stanley Cup finals. Not to mention Malkin stayed healthier at the time of his signing.
Anyways, please provide where your numbers are coming from exactly.
Also, you had to go back over 10 years (to the early days of the salary cap) to find any sort of a comparable which is saying something about Matthews contract.

Matthews led the league in even strength goals and was 2 in goals. As a rookie.

Playing with Hyman and brown

 

[Dekes For Days]

Why are you going from ES points per game to PP points per 60? Because those are the only numbers to fit your narrative?

People have a deep-rooted hate and lack of understanding of per 60 statistics, as we can all see, so I try to avoid them where possible. It's also much more difficult to calculate, and this is part of a bigger analysis I did. At ES, minor time differences have less of an impact because scoring happens less often. Unfortunately, for the PP, time differences are so massive across eras and affect production at such a high rate that looking at them in any way that doesn't consider minutes would be useless.

 

[shortfuze]

He spent a 1st and Kadri for a years breathing room of cap space. Never really got why. Everyone is locked up long term and they go all in when Tampa and Boston are still better than them?

Seems like a weird time to gamble. Pretty much have a year to pull two top 4 defenders out of their ass or they are going to be in rough shape.

Tampa and Boston will be good teams for a while. When are they supposed to go all in? Tampa is a stacked team and still lost in the first round. Now is the time for Toronto to go all in. Just like any other team.

 

[crowi]

I don't think even the band named SPIN-DOCTORS could handle this.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Matthews
#12 in goals
#41 in points
#22 in ppg

Actually over this time frame, Matthews was 6th in goals, 32nd in points, and 24th in ppg. And 2 of those stats don't account for games played.

Same for Matthews he was playing against peers that played in a league with a similar level of PPO no ?

Malkin was in 11th in the league in PP TOI/GP over his time frame.
Matthews was 169th.
So no, they were not equal in opportunity compared to their peers.

 

[shortfuze]

Matthews needs to worry about scoring 75 points before 100, that's if he can even play 70 games. I wouldn't be poking fun at regular season stars with a team stuck in round 1.

Why don’t you look at context instead of the 73 points. Stuff like PPG, GPG, Power play time and time on ice.