Probably just a defensive specialist.Apparently there was a GM at the draft offering up one of his best players for 3 first round picks.
Trends carry weight when something can be predictable or at least not supremely volatile. You can spend three years scouting but at the end of the day it is an educated guess. Dahlin could be a huge bust.
I think you are guilty of using a straw man here. Nobody is advocating trading the picks just to trade them, but if you can get the right offer don't hesitate to make the move. The Lehner trade was questioned by many the moment it was made because people (rightly) thought it was a gigantic overpay for someone who was far from a sure thing. The fact that we made a bad trade of a pick doesn't automatically mean any trade of a pick has to be a bad trade.
Winger.
I'm more comfortable with our D situation, than with our W situation.
Dahlin, Risto and Scandella are givens. I think McCabe is better than we saw last year. Bogosian is unlikely to stay healthy but if by some miracle he did, can be an asset. Even if we have to trot out Beaulieu or Hunwick next year, I'm comfortable with the upside of guys like Guhle/Pilut and Borgen/Samuelsson for one or two of them to fill those spots beyond that.
We have 2 top 6 wingers I'm comfortable with currently, Reinhart and Sheary. Past that we're hoping guys like Okposo can get their mojo back... or guys like ERod/Girgensons/Wilson can consistently step up their games, who are more middle/bottom-6 anyways.
Plus I think a 1st gets you a better winger than it does a defenseman value-wise.
IMO, this is less out of necessity and more because defensemen (and goaltenders for that matter) are incredibly hard to gauge the trajectory of at that level. Forwards have a less unpredictable development path, are more of a "sure thing", and are safer spending the top picks on.I think you are wrong about D, more wingers and centers are drafted in top 5 because of scoring needs, Top D can be drafted anywhere in first round and many late bloomers or developing D are drafted in later rounds. Scorers are hard to find.