Blue Jays Discussion: Winter Discontent III: Discontent with a Vengeance

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Diamond Joe Quimby

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Aug 14, 2010
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I don't understand why people think that's a bad deal for Cain. The guy was worth 4-5 war this past season. This deal takes him to age 36.

Memories of Bourn, Crawford, Ellsbury, I imagine give people trepidation.

His closest comps (sans defense) through age 31 are Marlon Byrd and Angel Pagan. The deal is steeped in risk.
 

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
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I think I've posted the closest comps to him through age 31 more than once. That risk is hellaoverrated.
 

zeke

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Milwaukee projects as a significantly worse team than the jays this year, for the record. They're not a particularly young team either.
 

zeke

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well, my comps didn't need the (sans defense) qualifier, at least.
 

Discoverer

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I'm curious to know what the timeline was like from the Jays end. They very well could have dropped out of the running for Yelich last week and moved on to Grichuk as a backup plan. I don't think anything we've learned suggests they were necessarily still working on a Yelich deal after adding Granderson and Grichuk.
 

zeke

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Age 31, 1yr stats

Cain: 645pa, 115wrc+, 4.1fwar, 5.3bwar, 4.7awar650
Pagan: 305pa, 116wrc+, 1.4fwar, 0.8bwar, 2.3awar650
Byrd: 599pa, 103wrc+, 1.3fwar, 2.2bwar, 1.9awar650

3yr stats

Cain: 1683pa, 116wrc+, 13.1war, 15.4bwar, 5.5awar650
Pagan: 1496pa, 107wrc+, 6.9fwar, 6.0bwar, 2.8awar650
Byrd: 1515pa, 111wrc+, 6.8fwar, 8.9bwar, 3.4awar650

5yr stats

Cain: 2627pa, 108wrc+, 20.5fwar, 23.7bwar, 5.5awar650
Pagan: 2505pa, 110wrc+, 14.8fwar, 15.2bwar, 3.9awar650
Byrd: 2002pa, 104wrc+, 7.7fwar, 10.0bwar, 2.9awar650

Career

Cain: 3052pa, 107wrc+, 23.5fwar, 27.8bwar, 5.5awa650
Pagan: 2958pa, 106wrc+, 15.9fwar, 16.4bwar, 3.6awar650
Byrd: 2969pa, 98wrc+, 9.7fwar, 11.1bwar, 2.3awar650


Age 32-36

Cain: ?
Byrd: 2481pa, 108wrc+, 11.0fwar, 12.7bwar, 3.1awar650
Pagan: 1507pa, 96wrc+, 3.0fwar, 0.5bwar, 0.8awar650


Heck, even though they're not really good comparables, Byrd actually got better from ages 32-36, and would have been well worth this Cain contract.
 

zeke

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The guy from twitter yesterday is now saying the marlins wanted to do yelich for vlad straight up. While the jays offered to take back money and deal a package of lesser prospects.
 
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Diamond Joe Quimby

A$AP Joffrey
Aug 14, 2010
13,547
2,996
Washington, DC
Age 31, 1yr stats

Cain: 645pa, 115wrc+, 4.1fwar, 5.3bwar, 4.7awar650
Pagan: 305pa, 116wrc+, 1.4fwar, 0.8bwar, 2.3awar650
Byrd: 599pa, 103wrc+, 1.3fwar, 2.2bwar, 1.9awar650

3yr stats

Cain: 1683pa, 116wrc+, 13.1war, 15.4bwar, 5.5awar650
Pagan: 1496pa, 107wrc+, 6.9fwar, 6.0bwar, 2.8awar650
Byrd: 1515pa, 111wrc+, 6.8fwar, 8.9bwar, 3.4awar650

5yr stats

Cain: 2627pa, 108wrc+, 20.5fwar, 23.7bwar, 5.5awar650
Pagan: 2505pa, 110wrc+, 14.8fwar, 15.2bwar, 3.9awar650
Byrd: 2002pa, 104wrc+, 7.7fwar, 10.0bwar, 2.9awar650

Career

Cain: 3052pa, 107wrc+, 23.5fwar, 27.8bwar, 5.5awa650
Pagan: 2958pa, 106wrc+, 15.9fwar, 16.4bwar, 3.6awar650
Byrd: 2969pa, 98wrc+, 9.7fwar, 11.1bwar, 2.3awar650


Age 32-36

Cain: ?
Byrd: 2481pa, 108wrc+, 11.0fwar, 12.7bwar, 3.1awar650
Pagan: 1507pa, 96wrc+, 3.0fwar, 0.5bwar, 0.8awar650


Heck, even though they're not really good comparables, Byrd actually got better from ages 32-36, and would have been well worth this Cain contract.

On June 25, 2012, Byrd was suspended 50 games for testing positive for a banned substance.[

On June 1, 2016, Byrd was suspended 162 games for his second positive PED test.

:laugh:
 

Nineteen67

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I'm curious to know what the timeline was like from the Jays end. They very well could have dropped out of the running for Yelich last week and moved on to Grichuk as a backup plan. I don't think anything we've learned suggests they were necessarily still working on a Yelich deal after adding Granderson and Grichuk.

Without a spreadsheet we’re all left to wonder.....
 

Discoverer

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Canada4Gold

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Dec 22, 2010
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Interesting to hear we were in on Yelich. Seems like a strange thing for the Marlins to reveal after the fact. Can't imagine teams like to have stuff leaked, and once its done there's no benefit to the Marlins, but hey it's the Marlins.

Of course individual opinions may differ and presumably the Marlins liked Brinson more if they were pushing for Vlad, but Bo is a slightly better prospect than Brinson so presumably our 2nd prospect should have been less then Diaz. Depending on how much money we were eating the 2nd guy could have changed, but I'm thinking around a SRF maybe? I wouldn't have cheered for it, but I wouldn't have been opposed to Yelich for Bo and SRF + a couple lower level throw ins, or less if we were eating some money from Miami. Bo is a really good prospect and extremely likely to work out, but there's still risk there obviously and it's still only 6 years of control while you have 5 years with Yelich who's 4 WAR player as is. I can see why people may have been against doing it, but if one were to get 5 years of 4 WAR out of Bo that's probably a success as much as you want to dream about how amazing he may end up being.
 
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Kurtz

Registered User
Jul 17, 2005
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I think I've posted the closest comps to him through age 31 more than once. That risk is hellaoverrated.

But you also had the courtesy to provide a study that showed that player production plummets at 34. Giants signed him for his 32-36 years, so we can reasonably project that the last 3 years of that contract will start to get ugly.
 

Woodman19

Registered User
Jun 14, 2008
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The guy from twitter yesterday is now saying the marlins wanted to do yelich for vlad straight up. While the jays offered to take back money and deal a package of lesser prospects.
If I was the Marlins I would have given up Yelich for someone to take Chen and Prado off my hands so I can then reinvest that $30 million in more efficient ways. They already salted the earth back home that you might as well go all out in tearing it down.
 

Discoverer

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Apr 11, 2012
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If I was the Marlins I would have given up Yelich for someone to take Chen and Prado off my hands so I can then reinvest that $30 million in more efficient ways. They already salted the earth back home that you might as well go all out in tearing it down.

They're going to be horrible for a few years anyway, so I don't see what reinvesting money the next few years does to improve their outlook. They're better off just letting Chen and Prado's be bad until their contracts expire and get actual useful pieces to add to the organization the way they did.
 

TF97

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Jul 4, 2010
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Halifax, NS
Alcides Escobar returns to the Royals for one year and $2.5M. It still makes me laugh to think that he was once the Royals leadoff hitter for an extended period of time.

Yost gonna Yost.
 
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