Wins Above Replacement

Michael Farkas

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Jun 28, 2006
13,352
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www.HockeyProspect.com
If these two examples are enough (one of which actually serves to prove the hypothesis...the other shows only a modest drop) to conclude that position has no effect, I'd like a word with your statistics professor haha
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
If these two examples are enough (one of which actually serves to prove the hypothesis...the other shows only a modest drop) to conclude that position has no effect, I'd like a word with your statistics professor haha

Although I have never studied statistics, I know 2 examples dont prove a hypothesis, but they do agree with it, as I said. I believe position doesn't have much to do with overall Corsi because even if the center is the one dishing the puck, they still get a plus when a linemate shoots. This also shows in the top 10 in Corsi based WAR: 3 centers, 3 wingers, 4 defenseman....very even.
 

Michael Farkas

Grace Personified
Jun 28, 2006
13,352
7,834
NYC
www.HockeyProspect.com
Between my notes and my memory, some more position changes...data compiled in good faith.

Claude Giroux
2016-17 Phi (C): 53.6
2017-18 Phi (LW): 53.2

Jonathan Drouin
2016-17 TB (LW): 52.7
2017-18 Mtl (C): 50.6

Jason Spezza
2016-17 Dal (C): 50.9
2017-18 Dal (RW): 53.2

Patrick Marleau
2016-17 SJ (LW): 51.4
2017-18 Tor (C/LW): 49.5

David Backes
2015-16 StL (C): 51.1
2016-17 Bos (RW): 56.4

Nick Foligno
2016-17 CBJ (LW): 51.3
2017-18 CBJ (C): 51.5

Nick Bjugstad
2016-17 Fla (C): 46.2
2017-18 Fla (RW): 52.3

Ryan O'Reilly
2011-12 Col (C): 55.0
2013-14 Col (LW): 49.0

Charlie Coyle
2015-16 Min (C): 47.7
2016-17 Min (RW): 50.2

Mikael Granlund
2015-16 Min (C): 50.5
2016-17 Min (LW): 49.3
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
Between my notes and my memory, some more position changes...data compiled in good faith.

Claude Giroux
2016-17 Phi (C): 53.6
2017-18 Phi (LW): 53.2

Jonathan Drouin
2016-17 TB (LW): 52.7
2017-18 Mtl (C): 50.6

Jason Spezza
2016-17 Dal (C): 50.9
2017-18 Dal (RW): 53.2

Patrick Marleau
2016-17 SJ (LW): 51.4
2017-18 Tor (C/LW): 49.5

David Backes
2015-16 StL (C): 51.1
2016-17 Bos (RW): 56.4

Nick Foligno
2016-17 CBJ (LW): 51.3
2017-18 CBJ (C): 51.5

Nick Bjugstad
2016-17 Fla (C): 46.2
2017-18 Fla (RW): 52.3

Ryan O'Reilly
2011-12 Col (C): 55.0
2013-14 Col (LW): 49.0

Charlie Coyle
2015-16 Min (C): 47.7
2016-17 Min (RW): 50.2

Mikael Granlund
2015-16 Min (C): 50.5
2016-17 Min (LW): 49.3

Good list... I had forgotten O'Reilly's time at LW. I split all forwards by center or winger and got the total 2017-18 positional sum of Corsi based WAR... 12.3 "goals" for centers, -12.3 "goals" for wingers....when you are dealing with hundreds of players in each group and factoring in the possible impreciseness of the player's listed position, a virtual wash.
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
We need PAR here rather than WAR. The standings are determined by Points, not Wins. :)

Easy switch from wins to points, just need to change the number GAR is divided by......here is the top 100 players last year by PAR:


RankNameTeamPAR
1McDavid, ConnorEDM21.0192456
2Giroux, ClaudePHI19.16702498
3Kucherov, NikitaTBL16.56681552
4Marchand, BradBOS15.81131912
5Panarin, ArtemiCBJ15.76149974
6Kopitar, AnzeLAK15.73937119
7Hall, TaylorNJD15.05260521
8Crosby, SidneyPIT15.04212064
9Gaudreau, JohnnyCGY14.75332635
10MacKinnon, NathanCOL14.66210342
11Couturier, SeanPHI14.39250827
12Barzal, MathewNYI14.24877643
13Karlsson, WilliamVGK14.13647154
14Klingberg, JohnDAL13.5419075
15Malkin, EvgeniPIT13.5134185
16Barkov, AleksanderFLA13.50798284
17Pastrnak, DavidBOS13.4989704
18Marchessault, JonathanVGK13.09995704
19Rinne, PekkaNSH12.89630172
20Gibson, JohnANA12.57701656
21Stamkos, StevenTBL12.49288531
22Bobrovsky, SergeiCBJ12.46740733
23Doughty, DrewLAK12.06276803
24Bergeron, PatriceBOS11.95671591
25Seguin, TylerDAL11.84743888
26Matthews, AustonTOR11.71216788
27Ovechkin, AlexWSH11.58395201
28Dadonov, EvgeniiFLA11.41346806
29Burns, BrentSJS11.20295788
30Quick, JonathanLAK11.15702166
31Tavares, JohnNYI11.11206755
32Draisaitl, LeonEDM11.09405194
33Hellebuyck, ConnorWPG11.07924298
34Jones, SethCBJ11.05297945
35Eberle, JordanNYI11.03604757
36Tkachuk, MatthewCGY10.97586827
37Hamilton, DougieCGY10.96133467
38Karlsson, ErikOTT10.88727069
39Benn, JamieDAL10.83846304
40Wheeler, BlakeWPG10.78162634
41Voracek, JakubPHI10.73569862
42Subban, P.K.NSH10.70771254
43Kessel, PhilPIT10.50965584
44Rielly, MorganTOR10.29372029
45Gostisbehere, ShaynePHI10.27594698
46Staal, EricMIN10.27355024
47Schwartz, JadenSTL10.23894462
48Smith, ReillyVGK10.20004505
49Hedman, VictorTBL10.17776826
50Giordano, MarkCGY10.17518568
51Krug, ToreyBOS10.12384773
52Ehlers, NikolajWPG10.12095348
53Andersen, FrederikTOR10.02846245
54Rantanen, MikkoCOL10.00871715
55Marner, MitchellTOR9.991699784
56Gallagher, BrendanMTL9.944956699
57Stone, MarkOTT9.912767442
58Point, BraydenTBL9.883902805
59Teravainen, TeuvoCAR9.8541204
60Letang, KrisPIT9.827700345
61Aho, SebastianCAR9.671564237
62Forsberg, FilipNSH9.646492029
63Monahan, SeanCGY9.602464053
64Pavelski, JoeSJS9.58829773
65Carlson, JohnWSH9.501923244
66Schenn, BraydenSTL9.487477643
67Josi, RomanNSH9.340109228
68Getzlaf, RyanANA9.258135591
69Gourde, YanniTBL9.196021684
70van Riemsdyk, JamesTOR9.14197385
71Radulov, AlexanderDAL9.070417147
72Ekholm, MattiasNSH9.042835293
73Pietrangelo, AlexSTL8.994022737
74Granlund, MikaelMIN8.986944415
75Toews, JonathanCHI8.983981818
76Smith, CraigNSH8.951785261
77Raanta, AnttiARI8.886379438
78Luongo, RobertoFLA8.871781076
79Huberdeau, JonathanFLA8.815358005
80Zucker, JasonMIN8.661206057
81Slavin, JaccobCAR8.601123366
82Tarasenko, VladimirSTL8.59642039
83Fleury, Marc-AndreVGK8.574160118
84Rakell, RickardANA8.572588855
85Nylander, WilliamTOR8.553745567
86Trocheck, VincentFLA8.343813841
87Brown, DustinLAK8.295112848
88Gardiner, JakeTOR8.232421233
89Scheifele, MarkWPG8.191924162
90Manson, JoshANA8.127269024
91O'Reilly, RyanBUF8.035218935
92Kane, PatrickCHI7.827992193
93Couture, LoganSJS7.816165375
94Suter, RyanMIN7.691771434
95Yandle, KeithFLA7.63213312
96Kuznetsov, EvgenyWSH7.616697361
97Backstrom, NicklasWSH7.61359952
98Butcher, WillNJD7.596062474
99Miller, ColinVGK7.58486834
100Muzzin, JakeLAK7.544921168
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NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
One of the top 22 are forwards...and it's John Klingberg...? Hmm...maybe it should be limited to a forwards-only thing...?


Here are top 31 defensemen by WAR for the 2017-18 season:


RankNameTeamWAR
1Klingberg, JohnDAL7.697369594
2Doughty, DrewLAK6.715217592
3Jones, SethCBJ6.584763115
4Gostisbehere, ShaynePHI6.280510169
5Rielly, MorganTOR6.135485438
6Subban, P.K.NSH6.060969363
7Karlsson, ErikOTT5.978379172
8Burns, BrentSJS5.866172703
9Hedman, VictorTBL5.776077684
10Josi, RomanNSH5.643190855
11Krug, ToreyBOS5.640652054
12Pietrangelo, AlexSTL5.636291665
13Hamilton, DougieCGY5.540278168
14Letang, KrisPIT5.51759586
15Carlson, JohnWSH5.46750615
16Giordano, MarkCGY5.229864035
17Ekholm, MattiasNSH5.134541814
18Slavin, JaccobCAR5.131148636
19Gardiner, JakeTOR4.85033275
20Ellis, RyanNSH4.741436906
21Manson, JoshANA4.679105954
22Miller, ColinVGK4.545709578
23Butcher, WillNJD4.472788682
24Suter, RyanMIN4.353832887
25Yandle, KeithFLA4.320075351
26Parayko, ColtonSTL4.253965315
27Petry, JeffMTL4.218624198
28Muzzin, JakeLAK4.06656115
29McAvoy, CharlieBOS4.023548483
30Werenski, ZachCBJ3.945102066
31Spurgeon, JaredMIN3.793185147
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And top 15 goalies:


RankNameTeam(s)WAR
1Rinne, PekkaNSH7.299793429
2Gibson, JohnANA7.119065977
3Bobrovsky, SergeiCBJ7.057023019
4Quick, JonathanLAK6.315295279
5Hellebuyck, ConnorWPG6.271269609
6Andersen, FrederikTOR5.676488177
7Raanta, AnttiARI5.030026097
8Luongo, RobertoFLA5.021762873
9Fleury, Marc-AndreVGK4.85329818
10Vasilevskiy, AndreiTBL3.994186944
11Hutton, CarterSTL3.990545185
12Crawford, CoreyCHI3.704103243
13Grubauer, PhilippWSH3.615696728
14Miller, RyanANA3.473828385
15Smith, MikeCGY3.45967356
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